Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Brexit minister Steve Baker attacks civil servants over leaked impact paper… A government minister launched an attack on his own civil servants today, accusing them of producing a substandard analysis of the economic impact of Brexit. In a statement to parliament, Steve Baker, the Brexit minister, revealed that he had not seen an internal government document, due to be presented to cabinet ministers, setting out the predicted effects of different models under which Britain could leave the EU. The document, which was leaked to BuzzFeed News, concluded that even if the UK was able to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, growth in the UK would be 5 per cent lower over the next 15 years. – The Times (£) Prime Minister Theresa May dismisses leaked reports – Evening Standard May pledges to publish Brexit studies only after EU deal – FT (£) Theresa May promises to publish full impact assessment for deal she agrees with EU – Independent Doom-laden report not seen by ministers from the Department for Exiting EU – Daily Mail We shouldn’t take the leaked Brexit impact assessments seriously – Ruth Lea for City A.M. Brexit ‘impact’ papers are meaningless – Sun editorial > Watch on BrexitCentral’s Youtube Channel: Steve Baker responds to urgent question …as he says Whitehall economic forecasts are always wrong…. Asked by the Tory MP and leave campaigner William Wragg if he could name a single civil service forecast “leaked or otherwise” that had been proved accurate, the minister responded: “No, I’m not able to name an accurate forecast, and I think they are always wrong and wrong for good reasons. My longstanding views on the flaws in the epistemology of the social sciences and consequences for econometrics are long set out.” Baker also responded to another Brexiter colleague, Peter Bone, who said people had still voted to leave the EU despite dire warnings. “I look forward to the day when we continue to prove economists wrong when they make horror story predictions,” he said. – Guardian Leaked impact paper is plot to undermine Brexit, says Steve Baker – The Times (£) We’re seeing a co-ordinated push by the defeated Europhile elites who will not accept the referendum result – Dan Hannan for the Sun Jonathan Isaby, Editor of BrexitCentral, added that previous modelling of this sort had been proven inaccurate… “The Treasury has always taken a deeply hostile attitude to Brexit,” Mr Isaby told The National. “They have shown themselves time and time again to be hopeless at economic forecasting. And without knowing what the arrangements are that the UK will have with the EU as we leave, there is no way of being able to make these forecasts anyway.” – The National …and Labour call Commons debate to force Government to hand leaked document to Brexit Committee… Ministers could be forced to publish a top secret study on the impact of Brexit – after the details of what it contains were leaked. Labour plans to use an archaic parliamentary procedure to push the document into the public domain. Its “Humble Address” motion tabled for Wednesday is the same method that bound the Government to publish its earlier “impact assessments” on Brexit. They ultimately turned out not to exist… Sky sources said the document was legitimate but only a draft. MPs are now demanding it be released to a senior committee for proper scrutiny. – Sky News Ministers reject calls to publish leaked Brexit study – BBC How can parliament take back control without seeing the Brexit impact assessments? – Sir Keir Starmer for The Times (£) …while Tory minister Philip Lee breaks ranks to say Government should stop Brexit if evidence shows it would be ‘damaging’ A Tory minister has broken ranks to suggest the Government should stop Brexit if the evidence shows it would be ‘damaging’. Justice Minister Philip Lee spoke out after a leaked Whitehall assessment showed every modelled outcome of Brexit would leave Britain worse off, saying “we can’t just dismiss this and move on…Writing on Twitter, Dr Lee warned: “The next phase of Brexit has to be all about the evidence. We can’t just dismiss this and move on. If there is evidence to the contrary, we need to see and consider that too. – Daily Mirror Philip Hammond accused of orchestrating ‘Project Fear Mark II’ – Telegraph (£) House of Lords begins debate on EU Withdrawal Bill… It was an earlier start than usual for the House of Lords to make time for the first wave of the 195 peers who wish to speak in the second reading debate on the EU Withdrawal Bill. Labour’s Lord Adonis moved his motion at the start of the day, “regretting” that people will not be able to vote on the final Brexit deal. He said: “The final say should rest with the people once they see the terms proposed by the government.” Later a former Brexit Minister, the Conservative peer Lord Bridges, warned that the UK could not “just muddle through” Brexit, saying there were “conflicting, confusing voices”. – BBC > Today on BrexitCentral: Highlights of the Lords debating EU Withdrawal Bill …with Lord Hill saying the Government should prioritise growth over continuity with EU after Brexit… Former EU Commissioner Lord Hill has told the government it is “going to have to choose” whether it wants continuity or competitiveness after Brexit – and suggested it should plump for the latter. Hill, who was the commissioner for financial stability, financial services and capital markets union for two years until the referendum, told the House of Lords it made no sense to “subcontract all our rule-making to someone else” in the hope of maintaining the status quo. During a debate on the EU Withdrawal Bill, Hill said: “To state what should be obvious by now, we are simply not going to be able to be both in the Single Market and free to make own rules where we want to… We are not going to be able to converge where it suits us to have continuity we want to and diverge where it suits us to be more competitive.” He added: “We must surely place greater priority on being able to shape our own future than on preserving the status quo.” – City A.M. …but former DExEU Minister attacks Brexit dithering Former DexEU minister George Bridges with a withering takedown of May’s Brexit dithering in the Lords this afternoon: “Four months on and there are still no clear answers to these basic, critical questions. All we hear day after day are conflicting, confusing voices. If this continues and ministers cannot agree among themselves on the future relationship the government wants, how can this Prime Minister possibly negotiate a clear, precise heads of terms of the future relationship with the EU? My fear is that we will get meaningless waffle in the political declaration in October.” – Guido Fawkes Two thirds of guests on flagship BBC shows are anti-Leave THE BBC has been branded a “supporter of a foreign organisation” against British interests after new evidence emerged of its supposed heavy pro-Remain bias in selecting guests. The accusation by former Tory chairman Lord Tebbit came during question in the House of Lords ahead of a new damning report which shows that two thirds of guests on BBC Question Time and Any Questions over the last two years have been anti-Brexit. The analysis by the Institute for Economic Affairs follows another report by the thinktank Civitas last week which revealed that between 2005 and 2015 only 132 of the 4,275 guests asked to speak on the Today programme about the EU supported Leaving.- Express Brexit supporters sorely under-represented on two key BBC programmes – The Sun > Watch on BrexitCentral’s Youtube Channel: Lords discuss ‘Brussels Broadcasting Corporation’ Confidence bounces back at the start of the year among UK citizens and businesses British consumers and businesses looked past inflation pressures on their pockets to start the year with a surprise increase in confidence, according to surveys to be published today. The long-running GfK measure of consumer confidence rose markedly from a negative reading of 13 – its lowest point in four years – in December to hit a negative reading of nine points. A survey by Lloyds Bank of more than 1,200 British businesses found confidence has risen to a nine-month high driven by a big boost in economic optimism – albeit still well below average levels seen before the EU referendum in June 2016. – City A.M. Post-Brexit data sharing crucial, say ex-intelligence heads The UK needs a data-sharing deal with Europe to prevent serious problems for security and the economy, two former intelligence chiefs have said. But Robert Hannigan and Sir John Sawers told the BBC it would be a mistake if the UK’s strength in the field became a “bargaining chip” in the Brexit talks. Former MI6 chief Sir John said the talks were “not a zero-sum game”. Ex-GCHQ head Mr Hannigan said it would not be ethical to threaten to withhold material which might stop terrorism. – BBC Theresa May unveils education deal at start of China visit… Theresa May has announced new education links with China as she arrives for a three-day visit to boost trade and investment after Brexit. The initiative includes the extension of a Maths teacher exchange programme and a campaign to promote English language learning in China. The UK prime minister has claimed her visit “will intensify the golden era in UK-China relations” – BBC Theresa May pledges to ‘step up’ relationship with China – The Times (£) Theresa May lands in China determined to promote British trade ahead of Brexit – Express Mandarins rush to update PM Theresa May’s Weibo account – The Times (£) It’s a good time for Britain to talk trade with China – Linda Yueh for The Times (£) …but warns Beijing to play by global rules Theresa May will arrive in China with a blunt warning that Beijing must play by global rules, including intellectual property rights, if it is to maximise new trading opportunities with Britain and the west. There have been tensions ahead of the three-day visit, with the British prime minister resisting pressure from Beijing to declare support for China’s Belt and Road initiative, a flagship project of President Xi Jinping. – FT (£) The UK and China will not always see eye-to-eye. But as partners committed to global free trade we can work together to confront and tackle challenges that affect all of our economies. So we will continue to look at what more can be done to tackle global overcapacity in sectors such as steel, and to ensure that, as our companies innovate and develop new products, they are confident that their intellectual property and rights will be fully protected. – Theresa May for the FT (£) Mrs May mustn’t be naive about China; this is the most protectionist economy on the planet – Jeremy Warner for the Telegraph (£) Embattled Theresa May vows to steer Britain through Brexit – Telegraph (£) I’m not a quitter, says Theresa May amid leadership questions – BBC Julian Jessop: The leaked Brexit analysis fails to break new ground The latest Whitehall analysis of the economic impact of Brexit would have to be published and critically reviewed before it could be taken seriously. But the leaks so far add little, if anything, to the debate, and settle nothing at all. Just like the Treasury’s infamous 2016 report on the long-term costs, the leaked analysis only looks at three ‘off the shelf’ options – essentially ‘Norway’, ‘Canada’ or ‘WTO rules’ – rather than the bespoke deal that the UK government is actually seeking. It therefore does not allow, among other things, for the possibility of streamlined customs agreements that minimise the costs of leaving the EU’s Customs Union, or a more comprehensive trade deal that covers financial services. – Julian Jessop for the IEA Eamonn Butler: Look beyond the Brexit forecasts The gravity model does not explain well the fact that we do so much trade with Anglophone countries—even though the US and Canada are much further away than the EU, while Australia and New Zealand are about as far away as any country could be. Often the Anglosphere (and the Brexit analysis is guilty of this) ignores the potential of trade with these countries. Bringing down barriers in countries with a common language boosts trade and investment. Bringing down barriers so those that can speak our language can move, live and build businesses here increases trade (from the USA, to India, Ireland, and Australia). – Eamonn Butler for the ASI Steerpike: What the BBC won’t tell you about the leaked Brexit forecasts The leaked government Brexit forecasts have this morning been reported by the BBC just as its leakers intended: as embarrassing proof that Brexit is bad for the economy. If it had any vague interest in being impartial, perhaps the Beeb would have bothered to make the rather obvious point: not only have we seen such forecasts before, but the new figures are more optimistic than HM Treasury’s last effort.The government’s April 2016 analysis said that the economy would be 3.8 percentage points smaller than it otherwise would have in 15 years if we were to stay in the EEA; that has now been revised down to a 2pc hit. – Steerpike for The Spectator The leaked Brexit forecast makes great headlines, but it won’t change minds – Mark Wallace for ConservativeHome Brexit comment in brief A second EU vote could destroy Remainers – Daniel Finkelstein for The Times (£) Thatcher would have been appalled by May’s handling of Brexit. Why would anyone vote Tory now? – Nigel Farage MEP for the Telegraph (£) My fellow Eurosceptics are used to the rough and tumble, but MPs should never malign the public – Sir Bill Cash MP for the Telegraph (£) Germany ‘cooking books’ to mask trade surplus, as Trump issues threat – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Telegraph (£) Sadiq Khan’s unwarranted forays into Brexit are a disservice to Londoners – Get Britain Out’s Peter Lyon for CommentCentral Remainers won’t get anywhere by clinging onto Project Fear – Asa Bennett for Telegraph (£) The post-Brexit economic forecasts are bad. That must be a good sign – Michael Deacon for Telegraph (£) Brexit news in brief Gina Miller demands UK stays in EU to “reform from within” – Express Migrant night workers ‘should be welcomed after Brexit’ – The Times (£) Customs fraud puts Brexit trade deal at risk – The Times (£) German ambassador accused of talking ‘rubbish’ after suggesting Second World War influenced Brexit vote – Telegraph (£) Listen to the “Leftist, Marxist” case for the Single Market, Varoufakis tells Labour MPs – LabourList