Brexit News for Wednesday 20 September

Brexit News for Wednesday 20 September
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Theresa May reportedly preparing €20bn EU budget offer…

Germany’s Angela Merkel has been told by the British government to expect Theresa May this week to offer to fill a post-Brexit EU budget hole of at least €20bn, the first attempt by London to meet European demands to settle its divorce bill. Olly Robbins, the prime minister’s top EU adviser, has contacted his counterparts in several European capitals to reassure them Mrs May’s Friday speech in Florence would include the financial offer, according to officials briefed on the discussions. – FT (£)

Ms May reportedly hopes offering to plug this financial gap left by the UK will break the three-month pattern of stalled negotiations. Sky News reported the figure was “pure speculation about a speech that has not yet been given”, according to Downing Street sources. The number, reported by the FT, would plug a two-year gap until 2020, at which point no EU member state would have to pay more into the EU budget or receive less money from it, according to UK officials. – Independent

  • Theresa May ‘prepares £18billion divorce bill offer’ to break Brexit talks deadlock – The Sun
  • Is PM heading for ‘Florentine fudge’ in Friday’s Brexit speech? – Laura Kuenssberg for BBC News
  • Why Theresa May’s Florence speech is critical – Beth Rigby for Sky News
  • Theresa May needs to be truly Machiavellian to pull off her Florence Brexit speech now – Philip Johnston for the Telegraph (£)
  • EEA light, migration and the ECJ. Red lines for May’s speech in Florence. – Paul Goodman for ConservativeHome

…as she secures Cabinet truce after suggestions Boris Johnson would be prepared to resign over Brexit…

Theresa May has made peace with Boris Johnson by securing a Cabinet truce over Britain’s future payments to the EU. The deal involves paying substantial sums to the EU until at least 2020, but no further payments after Britain’s transition period. It is a compromise between Boris Johnson’s position and that of Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, and is expected to be part of the Prime Minister’s Brexit speech in Florence on Friday. It came after a frenzied day on which the Foreign Secretary’s allies suggested he would be prepared to resign from the Cabinet over Mrs May’s Brexit strategy, only for him to apparently pull back from the brink after the Prime Minister brokered a truce. – Telegraph (£)

  • Revealed: How Theresa May brokered peace deal with Boris Johnson amid resignation fears – Telegraph (£)
  • PM expects Cabinet agreement on Brexit despite Boris Johnson row – Sky News
  • Theresa May expects Boris Johnson to remain as Foreign Secretary after Brexit speech – Telegraph (£)
  • Allies urge Theresa May to bring George Osborne back amid furious Cabinet row over Brexit – Telegraph (£)
  • Cabinet disunity over Brexit is damaging the Conservative Party and the country. The prime minister must assert what little authority she has – The Times editorial (£)
  • Brexit drift is a consequence of a failure of leadership at the heart of government – Telegraph editorial (£)
  • Theresa May must not betray the 17.4million people who voted for Brexit by giving ground to Europe on the advice of sly Remainers – The Sun says

…with Boris insisting he won’t quit over Theresa May’s Brexit speech…

Boris Johnson has insisted he will not be resigning from the cabinet over Brexit but said he hoped the prime minister would avoid hitching the UK too closely to the European Union after its departure… His remarks will be seen as a signal that he does not want May to commit to a close legal relationship with the EU similar to the arrangements adopted by Switzerland, which pays for access to the single market. Such an option would restrict UK room for manoeuvre over migration, common regulatory standards or the right to strike trade deals. – Guardian

  • Boris Johnson: I’m not quitting over Brexit – Politico
  • Boris Johnson denies cabinet Brexit split – BBC News
  • Boris Johnson backs off after clash with Theresa May over Brexit – The Times (£)
  • Boris Johnson will stay on and steps back from resigning after accepting Theresa May’s Brexit plan – The Sun
  • Explained: Why Boris Johnson is fighting for a Canada-inspired Brexit instead of a Swiss cop-out – Asa Bennett and Patrick Scott for the Telegraph (£)
  • Johnson gambles on being in thick of the Brexit battle – The Times (£)
  • Ken Clarke says Boris Johnson is an ‘irrelevant nuisance’ – Politico
  • Boris Johnson allies warn him it would be ‘ludicrous’ to quit over Brexit – Telegraph (£)

…and clarifying his position on payments to the EU

“I don’t think the sums should be too high, but it is obviously legitimate and right that we should pay our dues – we are a law-abiding country – during the period of membership. Where our lawyers say we are on the hook for stuff, then we are going to have to pay. But what I do not envisage is that we should pay into the EU just for access to the single market, or some such concept. It does not seem to be necessary. We do not get money for access to our markets.” – Guardian

Donald Tusk to meet Theresa May in London next Tuesday to talk Brexit

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, will meet with British Prime Minister Theresa May next week to discuss the U.K.’s exit from the EU. In a tweet on Tuesday, Tusk said that after speaking with May at the U.N. General Assembly in New York, the two agreed to talk about Brexit in London next Tuesday. – Politico

Nicola Sturgeon demands 111 powers from Theresa May in return for Brexit Bill support

Theresa May’s deputy has warned Nicola Sturgeon she would not be allowed to break up Britain’s single market after the First Minister spelled out 111 EU powers and regulations she wants in return for backing the Brexit Bill. Damian Green, the First Secretary of State, said some powers repatriated from Brussels would be devolved but the Government would “do nothing that risks undermining the benefits” of the UK’s internal market. Warning that Ms Sturgeon’s demands could mean the adoption of separate product and trade regulations in Scotland, he argued that “doing things four different ways” in each of the home nations would add costs for companies, workers and consumers. – Telegraph (£)

  • Scottish and Welsh governments set out 38 Brexit bill amendments – BBC News

Vince Cable compares Brexit to the ‘Iraq war’ and ‘financial crisis’

Sir Vince Cable has compared Brexit to the war in Iraq and the financial crisis, in his first keynote speech as Liberal Democrat leader. Despite insisting there is more to his party than opposing Brexit, Sir Vince said EU withdrawal ranked alongside “three great disasters” to hit Britain in recent years… Sir Vince also accused ministers of behaving like dictators over Brexit as he called for “political adults” in Tory and Labour ranks to join forces with him and try to reverse withdrawal from the EU. – Telegraph

  • Sir Vince Cable issues rallying cry against Brexit at Lib Dem conference – Sky News
  • Lib Dems won’t succeed as ‘Ukip in reverse’, says leader Sir Vince Cable – ITV News
  • Vince Cable’s conference speech, full text – Spectator
  • Jean-Claude Juncker’s State of the Union speech was ‘dreadful’ and fueled those pushing for a hard Brexit, says Vince Cable – Politico
  • Vince Cable says he doesn’t ‘see why’ he should make way for a female Lib Dem leader – Telegraph (£)
  • Sir Vince Cable’s unflashy overhaul of the Liberal Democrats has begun – Robert Nisbet for Sky News
  • Business does not want a second EU vote, whatever Vince Cable may say – Rachel Cunliffe for City A.M.

Business leaders still favour London as a base – despite Brexit, CBI research finds

New research from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) claims nine in ten (91pc) of the capital’s business leaders still believe London remains a good or great base for businesses, despite Brexit-related risks. Asked directly if they might consider moving elsewhere 63pc of business chiefs, responding in July and August this year, said they had no plans to move any part of their operation overseas. Jeff Kelisky, CEO of crowdfunding platform Seedrs, said that a combination of a modern and progressive attitude to financial regulation, strong financial and technical talent, and the UK’s convenient time zone between the US and Asia, “has made London a natural base for some of the most exciting hyper-growth tech companies in recent years”. – Telegraph

Germany’s Müller to invest £100m in British dairy operations

German dairy business Müller is defying worries about Brexit’s impact by revealing plans for £100m of investment in its UK business. Over the next three years the family-owned company will plough the money into new and current yogurt and dessert products, upgrading existing facilities and increasing its marketing budget in Britain. – Telegraph

Patrick Minford: The Establishment may not want a Canada-plus Brexit, but it’d most certainly suit the British people

Big business is furiously lobbying for an “EEA-lite” Brexit. This is the Brexit that will preserve the current EU relationships as they are but without the UK having any say in their content… This suits big business because they keep the same high EU-protected prices in the UK market, they keep their UK access to cheap labour, and via their lobbying budgets in Brussels they control the EU regulations which keep out the competition from small companies. For the UK this is a terrible outcome: we get the status quo and lose any vestige of control over EU actions which we have discovered can be damaging indeed. – Patrick Minford for the Telegraph (£)

Bernard Jenkin: What Theresa May will say in Florence: Don’t expect the unexpected

Theresa May will not be altering what she intended to say when she gives her speech in Florence on Friday. The febrile speculation is that Boris Johnson’s intervention in the Brexit debate has changed the situation, but in fact it tells us nothing we did not already know. Much of what Boris said in his 4,000 word Telegraph opus is a welcome corrective to the months of negative coverage about Brexit. This was generated by the noisy lobbying from the big protected city interests and some larger manufacturers. They are entitled to their views, but wrong to assume that they have diverted the government from the Lancaster House agenda. This is because of some basic facts of the negotiations. Those who want the UK to leave the EU but “stay in the Single Market” are the real “have your cake and eat it” brigade. They are asking for the one thing that the EU has made clear that they cannot concede. – Bernard Jenkin MP for City A.M.

Nigel Lawson: Theresa May’s silence on the benefits of Brexit frustrates

While she will be speaking in Italy, arguably her most important audience is here in the UK. As some of us have already spelt out, there are great economic benefits to be gained from Brexit. Mrs May has been strangely silent on this point. I hope that will now change. It is bizarre that it has been left to a seemingly freelance operation by Boris Johnson, foreign secretary, to explain what these benefits are. The message should have gone out long ago from both the prime minister and the chancellor. It is understandable that Mr Johnson may have become frustrated by their continuing silence. The most obvious substantial benefit is to the UK’s public finances… Even more important in the longer term is the ability to comb through the vast corpus of EU regulation, amending it to suit the best interests of British business and our economy in general. One thing on which neither of these benefits depends is a trade deal, about which much too much time and energy is being wasted. – Lord Lawson for the FT (£)

Charlie Cooper: Olly Robbins’ move to become EU adviser to Theresa May creates clarity and confusion

Far from “exiting Brexit,” Robbins has moved to a new role as EU adviser at the Cabinet Office, the Whitehall department which sits alongside No. 10 Downing Street and coordinates cross-government activity. He also remains in post as Theresa May’s EU sherpa (tasked with selling her Brexit position to the EU27) and will continue to lead the negotiating delegation… But Robbins moving out of DExEU removes him from Davis’ line of command and places him firmly alongside the prime minister… Is Robbins’ move all part of a wider shift in which the prime minister takes the reins of the Brexit negotiation? – Charlie Cooper for Politico

  • Red Robbins: May’s Brexit supremo is Soviet sympathiser who opposed capitalism – Guido Fawkes

Ben Wright: Red lines will have to move to fire up a new world of trade for the UK

What is the UK prepared to offer to get these [trade] agreements? On agriculture, for example, what are we going to do about food standards? The issue of chlorine-rinsed chicken has become totemic for good reason. US chickens are banned from import in the EU. Will the UK waive the rules in order to get a “very powerful” trade deal with Donald Trump? And, if so, what will that mean for our food exports to the EU? Ultimately, the UK will have to jump one way or the other… Then there’s immigration. Free trade is often accompanied by free (or at least freer) movement. One of the stumbling blocks to trade deals with, for example, India is the issue of student visas. Will [Crawford] Falconer and the DIT even hold the UK’s main bargaining chip in these negotiations or will that be controlled by the Home Office or, more likely, No 10? – Ben Wright for the Telegraph (£)

  • UK has ‘no capacity’ for quick new trade deals with smaller countries, says Trade Minister Greg Hands – FT (£)

Brexit comment in brief

  • Dominic Grieve interview: Brexit is an “unBritish” revolution – and how he will work to improve the EU Withdrawal Bill – Andrew Gimson for ConservativeHome
  • History shows an amicable Brexit is possible – Risto Penttilä for the FT (£)
  • The great Brexit bus delusion – Brendan O’Neill for the Spectator
  • German trade boss dismisses Brexit as empty talk – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Telegraph (£)
  • Will the government really accept ‘No Deal’ with the EU? – Chris Cook for BBC News
  • I am passionately pro-EU. But here’s why I believe Johnson was right about patriotism. – John Stevens for ConservativeHome
  • Election tests German compassion towards migrants – Guy Chazan for the FT (£)

Brexit news in brief

  • Prime Minister hosts major US investors in New York and says “business is booming” – GOV.UK
  • EU seeks more powers over hedge funds after Brexit – FT (£)
  • Tony Blair enrages Brexit backers with bizarre claim that there is a one-in-three chance of overturning the referendum result – The Sun
  • Nigel Farage says he could stop paying licence fee after BBC reported he had ‘blood on his hands’ – Telegraph (£)
  • As Brexit looms, migrant workers go on picking Britain’s berries – FT (£)

And finally… EU splurges €725,000 on promotional ‘euro-tat’ for little-known regional assembly

A little-known European Union institution plans to spend up to [three quarters] of a million euros of taxpayers’ money on EU-branded promotional “euro-tat” such as crystal clocks and cashmere scarves… It has given a four-year contract worth up to €725,000 (about £645,000) of EU cash to a Belgian and a Spanish company to manufacture gifts, trophies and medals. The funds are taken from the EU budget, which Britain contributes to. The individual gifts range from branded environmentally friendly pens, bags and post-it notes to crystal clocks and porcelain desk trays in plush presentation boxes in European blue worth €150 each. – Telegraph (£)