Theresa May plans to ask EU for a three-month Brexit delay: Brexit News for Wednesday 20 March

Theresa May plans to ask EU for a three-month Brexit delay: Brexit News for Wednesday 20 March
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Theresa May plans to ask EU for a three-month Brexit delay…

Theresa May is preparing to abandon her plan to ask the EU for a nine-month Brexit delay after furious cabinet ministers told her the Tory party would only accept a three-month wait. The Prime Minister is now thought to be considering writing to the EU asking for a shorter extension, as Downing street admitted last night that Britain’s departure from the European Union is at a crisis point. Mrs May was forced into a humiliating retreat after being put under severe pressure by senior ministers at a cabinet meeting last night and is now expected to write to Donald Tusk for a three month extension, rather than ask for a lengthier departure date. The sudden change of direction left some ministers reeling, one told The Sun: ‘Nobody knows what the f*** is going on, or even who in No10 is actually gripping it. Maybe nobody is. ‘The whole thing is a national humiliation on a scale we have not seen in many, many decades – if ever before.’ – Daily Mail

  • Theresa May set to abandon plan to ask EU for nine-month Brexit delay following bruising Cabinet revolt – The Sun
  • Theresa May will not ask EU for long extension – BBC News
  • PM May to request short delay to Brexit – Reuters

…after ministers threaten to quit over a long delay that would risk the ‘end of the Conservative Party’…

Theresa May’s Cabinet is fracturing over her plans for a Brexit delay after ministers told her she was risking “the end of the Conservative Party”. Angry ministers turned on the Prime Minister after she refused to tell them how long an extension she intends to request from the EU, leaving some suspecting she could ask for a delay of up to two years. Amid accusations that Mrs May has failed to get a grip on what she admits is a “crisis”, Eurosceptic ministers warned that a long delay would lead to a Jeremy Corbyn government and  turn Britain into a “barren land” with “gulags”. Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox and Chris Grayling left Mrs May in no doubt that they would have to consider quitting the Cabinet if a long delay becomes Government policy. Dr Fox, the International Trade Secretary, told Mrs May that if a long delay led to Brexit being cancelled it would mean “the end of the Conservative Party”. Tory MPs already fear the party will be “massacred” at the local elections in May because of its mishandling of Brexit. – Telegraph (£)

  • Cabinet row over Theresa May delay request to EU – BBC News
  • Huge Cabinet bust-up as Andrea Leadsom blasts Remain ministers who ‘don’t want to deliver Brexit’ – The Sun
  • The Tory revolt to stop Theresa May asking EU for a Brexit delay of nine months or more – ITV News

…as Downing Street admits Britain is in a ‘crisis’ over Brexit…

Britain is in a “crisis” over Brexit, Downing Street admitted today. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said Mrs May had warned there would be a crisis if her Brexit deal was rejected by MPs for a second time. He added: “That situation has come to pass.” Mrs May is expected to send a letter to European Commission President Donald Tusk today or tomorrow to formally request a delay in the Brexit process. But Number 10 declined to say whether ministers had agreed on a set length of delay to ask for during this morning’s Cabinet meeting. The Cabinet spent 90 minutes discussing the implications of Speaker John Bercow’s statement yesterday, which blocked the Government from bringing the deal back to the Commons for a third meaningful vote. They also discussed plans for this Thursday’s EU summit. Number 10 declined to say whether the speaker’s impartiality – which has been repeatedly questioned by Brexiteers – was discussed at the meeting. The spokesman said: “What I can see from the PM and from her colleagues is an absolute determination to find a way in which Parliament can vote for the UK to leave the EU with a deal.” – Mirror

  • Theresa May believes UK in ‘crisis’ over Brexit, says Downing Street – Sky News
  • Theresa May admits country is ‘in crisis’ with 10 days to avert no-deal Brexit – Independent

…while May rules out revoking Article 50 and scrapping Brexit

The Prime Minister warned MPs Britain has been plunged into “crisis” after they failed to back her Brexit deal for a second time. She has written to EU leaders requesting both a short and long delay to Britain’s leaving date of March 29, according to ITV’s Robert Peston. But Mrs May has ruled out scrapping Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50 through Parliament. Mr Peston tweeted: “Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman: ‘PM is not prepared to revoke article 50. “‘This is not something she is prepared to countenance’.” – Express

Eurosceptic Tories use covert talks to call on EU countries to veto Brexit extension…

Backbench Eurosceptic Tory MPs have made a behind-the-scenes bid to persuade European Union leaders to veto any delay to Brexit at this week’s Brussels summit. The undercover diplomatic initiative has been led by Tory MPs Daniel Kawczynski, Craig Mackinlay and former Cabinet minister Owen Paterson. The talks have been discussed at meetings of the European Research Group of around 60 hardline Conservative MPs. The MPs were hoping that one of the EU’s 27 remaining member states could veto Britain’s expected request to an extension to Article 50 to make it more likely that the UK leaves the EU at the end of next week. Mr Mackinlay – whose wife is Hungarian and who chairs the all-party Parliamentary group on Hungary – is understood to have held several meeting with senior figures in the Hungarian government. – Telegraph (£)

…while Michel Barnier says an extension only makes sense if it raises the chances of deal

An extension of Brexit talks beyond the March 29th deadline would only make sense if it increased the chances of the already agreed deal being ratified by Britain, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Tuesday. Barnier said that after two years of talks with Britain on its withdrawal from the bloc, the key moment has now come for London to make up its mind and end the genuine uncertainty that its lack of decision on the way forward has created. “Does an extension increase the chances of ratification of Withdrawal Agreement? What would be the purpose and outcome? How can we ensure that, at the end of a possible extension, we are not back in the same situation as today?” Barnier told a news conference. “If Theresa May requests an extension before the European Council on Thursday, it will be for the 27 leaders to assess the reason and usefulness […] EU leaders will need a concrete plan from the UK in order to be able to make an informed decision,” he said. – Reuters

  • ‘An extension will have consequences’ says EU – ITV News
  • Price of Brexit delay could be referendum or election, says Barnier – Guardian

> WATCH: Michel Barnier’s press conference on Brexit Delay request

New vote on Government’s deal could take place next week, despite Bercow’s ruling…

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay suggested a vote could take place next week – after Mrs May has sought a delay to Brexit from the EU. Mr Bercow has ruled that the PM can not bring her deal back for a third vote without “substantial changes”. The UK is due to leave the EU in 10 days with or without a deal. The prime minister had hoped to have another try at getting MPs to back the withdrawal deal she has agreed with the EU this week – but Speaker Bercow effectively torpedoed that with his surprise intervention on Monday. Stephen Barclay told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the Commons Speaker had made a “serious ruling” and ministers were giving it “serious consideration”. He said it was important to “respect the referee” and abide by his decisions – but, he added, Mr Bercow himself had said, in the past, that if Parliament was guided only by precedent then “nothing ever would change”. Mr Bercow cited a ruling from 1604 to justify his decision to block a third vote, after the PM’s deal was rejected for a second time last week, by 149 votes. Mr Barclay suggested that MPs would “find a way” to get another vote, if the government manages to persuade enough of them, including the 10 Democratic Unionists, to change their mind and back the deal. He suggested it would also depend on Theresa May getting “clarity” from the EU on the “terms of an extension” to Brexit. He accepted that there would now have to be a “short extension” to the Article 50 withdrawal process if the deal gets through Parliament, to get the necessary legislation through. – BBC News

  • Theresa May threatens war with Speaker John Bercow to ram through vote – Mirror
  • Speaker won’t stop Theresa May’s deal, vows Brexit minister – The Times (£)

> WATCH: Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay discussing the Speaker’s ruling against a third Meaningful Vote

…by asking MPs to first vote on overruling the Speaker, says Solicitor General…

MPs could be asked overrule John Bercow’s decision to block a third meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal by holding “a vote for a vote”, the solicitor general has claimed. Robert Buckland said on Tuesday morning that if a majority of MPs backed holding another vote on the deal, parliamentary rules meant it would go ahead. But Tory MP Nick Boles argued if May still does not have a Commons majority for her deal, she would also not have a majority to overturn Bercow’s ruling. “No point making the attempt,” he said. Buckland did not rule out taking the “drastic” step of cutting short the current session of parliament and starting a new one in order to get around the speaker’s decision. “That could be done,” he told the BBC. – Huffington Post

…although DUP won’t back May’s deal unless they are persuaded it can pass the Commons

The Democratic Unionist Party is not prepared to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal unless it is convinced it can pass a House of Commons vote, HuffPost UK understands. The support of the Northern Irish party, which props up the prime minister’s government, is seen as the key to unlocking the backing of Tory Brexiteers looking for a reason to lend their support to her agreement. But ministers’ talks with the DUP have stalled, with one insider remarking that they “can’t see a breakthrough at present”. The DUP is keen to strike a deal in which the government will provide enough legislative and legal assurance to convince the party that Northern Ireland’s place in the union is not threatened by the controversial Irish backstop. However, HuffPost UK has learnt that even if ministers prevail, the party will be reluctant to compromise unless they believe there are enough Tory and probably Labour MPs willing to help May’s deal pass. The talks are understood to include discussions around a Stormont ‘lock’, which would see Northern Ireland’s laws remain in line with the UK and begin to address concerns about additional checks taking place between the province and the mainland. – Huffington Post

  • ‘Big gaps’ remain between DUP and Government on Brexit says Dodds – Belfast Telegraph

The ‘nuclear option’: Queen could be asked to close Parliament early to get around Bercow ruling

It is described by constitutional experts as the “nuclear” option. Ministers are considering asking the Queen to bring Parliament to an early close after the Speaker threatened to block the Prime Minister from holding a vote on her Brexit deal. In an intervention that will cement his reputation as one of the most controversial Speakers in history, John Bercow said on Monday he would not allow Mrs May to put her deal to a vote for a third time unless it is “substantially” different – citing a convention that dates back to 1604 and was last used in 1920. Downing Street was given no forewarning of the announcement, which threw the Government into chaos. The immediate impact was to kill the already receding hope ministers had that the third meaningful vote, known as MV3, could take place this week. Ministers are now concentrating their efforts on finding ways around the latest “obstacle” that Mr Bercow has placed in their way while simultaneously trying to win round the DUP, Eurosceptic Tories and Labour rebels. Robert Buckland, the Solicitor General, suggested the Government was considering the most controversial solution – asking the Queen to “prorogue” Parliament, bringing the current session to an early end. – Telegraph (£)

No-deal plan will be implemented if no delay is agreed by Monday

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told Cabinet ministers in a letter the plan will be implemented on March 25 unless a new exit date is agreed. Operation Yellowhammer is the UK Treasury’s contingency plan for no deal exit from the bloc. The plan drafts what would happen for factors such as money, citizens, trade and customs. According to the Daily Telegraph, if no date is set by Monday Operation Yellowhammer will be implemented. In a letter to Cabinet ministers, Mr Bfarclay wrote: “Operation Yellowhammer command and control structures will be enacted fully on 25 March unless a new exit date has been agreed between the UK and the EU.” The revelation comes after hartdline Tory Brexiteers warned the Prime Minister they could end her tenure in Downing Street if she carries out a prolonged Brexit delay. Mrs May had set a deadline of late on Tuesday for MPs to agree to her exit deal, but not some Conservatives have vowed to abstain from future votes. – Express

Jeremy Corbyn meets with Tory Remainers as he pushes to keep Britain in the Customs Union…

Jeremy Corbyn met Tory Remainers yesterday as he stepped up his bid to force Theresa May to adopt a soft Brexit alternative. He agreed to pursue further talks with Tory and Labour MPs over finding a compromise between his plan to stay in the Customs Union and their “Norway-Plus” style Brexit that would keep Britain in the Single Market. Mr Corbyn’s spokesman said they held “detailed discussions” with Tory MPs Nick Boles and Oliver Letwin and Labour MPs Lucy Powell and Stephen Kinnock over their plans for a Common Market 2.0. Labour said in a statement afterwards: “They discussed how to build greater support on areas of agreement between Labour’s alternative plan and Common Market 2.0 and find possible areas of compromise.” But separate talks with anti-Brexit parties broke down after he watered down his commitment to a second referendum. He met Westminster leaders of anti-Brexit parties the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens over their campaign for a People’s Vote – and snubbed their invitation to join a rally calling for one on Saturday. – The Sun

…while minor party leaders urge Corbyn to back a second Brexit referendum

The SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens have urged Jeremy Corbyn to throw his weight behind a second Brexit referendum as the Labour leader met opposition parties amid efforts to find a way out of the current deadlock. A Labour statement said the group agreed their joint opposition to both May’s plan and to a no-deal departure. If there was no majority in parliament for the deal or a second referendum, Corbyn wanted the other parties to “engage constructively to find a parliamentary majority for a close economic relationship with the EU that can work for the whole country”. However, in a joint statement afterwards, Blackford, Cable, Saville Roberts and Lucas said they had mainly impressed on Corbyn their desire for a second referendum. They said: “In the meeting our message was clear, Labour must move to back a public vote, which includes the option to remain, before the window of opportunity closes. “There is no such thing as a good Brexit, whether it is a Labour or Conservative version of it. Jobs, public services and the environment will suffer. Remaining in the EU is the best deal on offer and with time running out, Labour must now deliver on their promises so that we can avoid a catastrophic Brexit.” It is understood Cable invited Corbyn to join a People’s Vote campaign rally on Saturday calling for a fresh referendum, which was declined by the Labour leader. – Guardian

EU leaders ‘exhausted’ by Theresa May’s negotiations warn ‘a damaging Brexit could happen’

The European Union has heaped more pressure on Theresa May to break the Brexit deadlock in the House of Commons and bring fresh proposals to tomorrow’s EU summit in Brussels. Europe ministers made the demands after Speaker John Bercow threw plans into yet more confusion by the prime minister she could not hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal unless it was substantially different from the version already rejected by MPs. EU-27 leaders are expected to consider a British request to extend the talks tomorrow but their ministers said they were “exhausted” by Brexit and that London must provide answers. They warned that a damaging no deal Brexit “could very well happen” if Mrs May failed to bring new ideas to the table before a meeting in Brussels to prepare for the summit. “The clock is ticking and time is running out. We’re really exhausted by these negotiations and I expect clear and precise proposals of the British Government why such an extension is necessary. It’s not just a game, it’s an extremely serious situation,” said Michael Roth, Germany’s Europe minister. “I don’t have any appetite for substance-less, very abstract discussions and negotiations on the Brexit. Please deliver, dear friends in London please deliver,” he added. – Telegraph (£)

  • EU ministers demand clarity from UK after Bercow ruling – FT(£)
  • ‘London, please deliver’: EU leaders react to possible Brexit delay following John Bercow ruling – City A.M.
  • Stop testing our patience, ‘exhausted’ German minister tells Brexit Britain – Reuters

Angela Merkel vows to fight for orderly process

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she will fight for an “orderly Brexit” until “the very last hour”. Mrs Merkel said that current events were in a “state of flux”, adding that European Union leaders will try to react to whatever the UK proposes. The UK is due to leave the EU in 10 days with or without a deal. PM Theresa May is writing to European Council President Donald Tusk to ask for an extension to the process and will meet EU leaders later this week. At home, a new vote on UK Brexit deal has been blocked by the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. Mrs Merkel refused to be drawn on whether she would now support an extension. Addressing a conference in Berlin, she said. “I will fight for an orderly Brexit on 29 March until the very last hour. “We don’t have that much time left… I must say that I’m not in a position to speculate on what I will do on Thursday because it depends on what Theresa May will tell us.” – BBC News

  • Angela Merkel: I will fight for Brexit deal until the last minute of 29 March – City A.M.

Britain ‘days away’ from post-Brexit trade deal with Canada but time is running out for dozens more agreements to be signed

Britain is expected to sign a trade deal with Canada within days, but time is running out for dozens more agreements to be signed before Brexit. Whitehall officials believe an agreement with Ottawa is achievable before March 29, when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. It will effectively copy Canada’s economic pact with the EU for British companies after Brexit, and is a boost for Liam Fox’s Department for International Development. The UK is the biggest trading partner Canada has within the EU, so a deal is significant for both sides across the Atlantic. Mr Fox, the International Trade Secretary, promised in 2017 to secure Britain up to 40 free-trade agreements replicating existing EU arrangements in time for Brexit ‘one second after midnight’. But the UK has only agreed seven, covering markets including Switzerland and Chile in the event of No Deal. The Government has nine days to finalise at least two dozen such trade deals.  Firms will face higher tariffs and trade barriers abroad if it fails to do so. – Daily Mail

Employment hits new record high – despite Brexit

Unemployment fell to its lowest level in 44 years at the start of 2018 as Britain’s businesses defied Brexit worries to put on a new hiring spree. Employment surged by 222,000 in the three months to January, almost double the expected growth. This was the fastest pace of jobs growth since 2015, flying in the face of fears that political uncertainty was starting to bite. There are now more than 32.7m people in work, a record high. Compared with the same time last year, an extra 473,000 people are in work, the Office for National Statistics said. Full-time employment accounted for 90pc of the increase. The jobs market “looks astonishingly strong for an economy that is supposedly slowing on most other measures”, said economist James Knightley at ING. “Taking it all together it suggests the UK economy is in better shape than many had been believing.” – Telegraph (£)

Overseas students choose UK business schools – despite Brexit

The percentage of overseas students making Britain their first choice for business school has increased since the EU referendum, suggesting that fears about Brexit damaging the sector were overblown. The share of scores from the standardised MBA entrance exam sent to UK institutions also increased slightly since the poll, according to figures compiled by the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), the exam’s administrator. The resilience of the British market is attributed to declines in the value of the pound after the vote to leave the EU, which has made tuition fees in Britain relatively cheap for international students, particularly for people who would otherwise apply to US business schools. Some 54 per cent of test takers surveyed by GMAC last December said Brexit had made no impact on the attractiveness of Britain as a place to study, up from 46 per cent in December 2016. Moreover, 71 per cent of UK business schools included in the study reported a year-on-year increase in applications. The British education system also continues to be well respected among overseas applicants, and Britain has maintained its reputation among MBA students as a great place to launch an international career. – FT(£)

Loan advert banned for using Brexit uncertainty to encourage food stockpiling

An advertisement for a high-cost loan which used Brexit uncertainty to encourage consumers to stockpile food has been banned for being socially irresponsible. Cash On Go, trading as Peachy.co.uk, sent an email stating: “it’s a good idea to have a little stockpile ready.” Bold text on the email, which was sent out to consumers in January, included a link which read: “In case of emergency press here,” and offered a promotional discount. The advert stated: “No one really knows what’s going on with this whole Brexit malarkey… and some say it could affect the amount of food available… “We do not want to believe that Brexit will impact the amount of food available but it’s still a good idea to have a little stockpile ready. That way you’re always prepared for the worst.” A reader complained that the ad irresponsibly encouraged people to take out a loan by playing on their fears. Peachy said the ad referred to Brexit to make it topical and to reflect some situations where people might find it difficult to fully prepare for unexpected scenarios. It believed the mention of Brexit was made in a light-hearted manner to avoid causing any actual concerns. The lender said they would not use the ad again and would ensure they “considered public sensitivities more thoroughly”. The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) said the ad was likely to put emotional pressure on readers to the effect that it was sensible to go further than they would otherwise have been able to afford by taking out a loan, and that, if they did not, they risked being unable to feed themselves or their families. – Evening Standard

  • Brexit advert by loans firm encouraging food stockpiling is banned for being irresponsible – Telegraph (£)

UK to pay some health costs of retired Britons in EU

The government has thrown a potential £500m Brexit lifeline to 180,000 British pensioners in EU countries outside the UK who rely on the NHS to pay for their healthcare. The health minister, Stephen Hammond, has said the government is committed to covering all treatments that began before exit day for up to 12 months afterwards in the event of no deal. “The UK government has committed to fund healthcare for UK nationals (and others for whom the UK is responsible) who have applied for, or are undergoing, treatments in the EU prior to and on exit day, for up to one year, to protect the most vulnerable,” he said in a ministerial written statement. The move will come as a welcome relief to pensioners in countries such as Spain and France who were facing the immediate loss of the EU reciprocal arrangement whereby the NHS reimbursed the cost of their medical treatment. Such a prospect was a particular concern to cancer patients and those with ongoing medical needs. However, the offer to cover costs for just one year for treatment agreed or started before exit day prompted fury, with some Britons in the EU questioning what would happen if they fell sick after the UK left the EU. “If the person has paid into the system all their lives, retired to an EU country in good faith with all the reciprocal arrangements in place, they could be left high and dry if they, say, get cancer after 29 March,” said one. – Guardian

Donald Trump’s son declares democracy in the UK ‘all but dead’ due to delays to Brexit

Donald Trump’s son has declared democracy in the UK “all but dead” due to the failure to implement Brexit on time. In an astonishingly personal attack on Theresa May, Donald Trump Junior slammed her for promising “on more than 50 separate occasions that Britain would leave the EU on March 29”. Writing on the Telegraph website he added: “She needs to honour that promise.” Trump Junior lashed out at Mrs May for ignoring the advice of his dad, who last year advised her to sue the EU over its approach to negotiations. Brexit should have taken “only a few short months” to sort out but instead has “become a year-long stalemate, leaving the British people in limbo,” the US President’s son wrote. It comes a week after Trump senior made his latest intervention on Brexit – it was “tearing the country apart”. He said he was “surprised” at how badly Brexit had gone and observed that both sides were “cemented in”. He also claimed that another referendum would be “unfair”. Meanwhile Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton last night told Sky News that the US was “ready to go” with a landmark US-UK trade deal. He said a bumper trade deal could be struck “quickly,” adding: We want to partner with a newly independent Britain.” – The Sun

Vindictive Information Commissioner’s Office hits Vote Leave with £40,000 fine for not having data they agreed to delete

The state’s war of attrition against Brexit is continuing to grind on with the Information Commissioner’s Office today taking the decision to slap Vote Leave with a monster fine of £40,000. The ICO’s justification for the fine was that Vote Leave had violated data protection laws because were unable to prove that text messages sent to voters had been done with their consent. The reason Vote Leave were unable to prove it was specifically because they deleted their entire database after the vote as agreed with the ICO before the referendum. – Guido Fawkes

Steve Baker: We must stand firm and reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal or we will live to regret it

The one advantage of the Cabinet’s Withdrawal Agreement is that it would allow us to claim Brexit on March 29. Of course, some colleagues are attracted to it – but the British people have already spotted a dud deal. According to ComRes polling yesterday, 54 per cent say it does not deliver. Just 14 per cent approve. If we put this agreement through and Theresa May negotiates the future relationship as hopelessly as our withdrawal, we will find ourselves with all the disadvantages of membership and none of the advantages of Brexit. I understand my Conservative colleagues want to say they have delivered Brexit for fear of voter backlash and I understand the nation is crying out for progress, but this deal would backfire terribly by the next election. Voting for this deal is not pragmatism. It is the reverse. It would be an understandable but counterproductive surrender for immediate respite. The pragmatic, realistic response to the deal is to keep clearly in sight what it does, what it will stop us from doing in future and the impossibility of escape from it, once we have locked the door on ourselves. – Steve Baker MP for the Telegraph (£)

Richard Tice: The British public are crying out for change. If only our politicians could be as bold

Trust in our politicians is at rock-bottom. The latest polling data shows the public increasingly want Brexit MPs to hold their nerve and bang the drum for leaving on WTO terms. Some 47 per cent believe that extending Article 50 is a betrayal of Brexit. With Speaker Bercow threatening to block more votes on May’s deal, MPs should listen to the public. The poll, commissioned by my group Leave Means Leave and carried out by ComRes, also shows that over half the British public (54 per cent) believe the PM’s deal does not deliver the kind of Brexit that those who voted in 2016 wanted while only 14 per cent disagree and say the deal does deliver Brexit. For what it’s worth, I agree with the majority. The PM’s deal would tie the UK into a Customs Union straitjacket and hand the key to the padlock to the EU. It’s crucial that Parliamentarians stand up not just for their constituents, but also for the 17.4 million people who voted to Leave two years ago. A staggering 54 per cent of voters agree that MPs are delaying the vote to thwart Brexit whilst only 24 per cent disagree. This is a matter of life or death for our nation. The people have consistently made their views known. Now it’s time for you patriots in Parliament to hold your nerve. A vote against the deal is a vote of confidence in the people that elect you. – Telegraph (£)

Donald Trump Jr: Theresa May should have taken my father’s advice on Brexit

Next Friday, March 29, is supposed to be the British people’s Independence Day. But because the elites control London from Brussels, the will of the people is likely to be ignored. Nearly three years ago, the British people shocked the global power-brokers by voting to leave the European Union. Promises were made, elections were held, and debates over Great Britain’s exit plan from the EU began shortly after, with every politician promising to respect the decision of the people. Britons were told to wait, to be patient and to trust the politicians. But, was it all a ruse? Since 2016, Prime Minister Theresa May has promised on more than 50 separate occasions that Britain would leave the EU on March 29 2019. She needs to honour that promise. But Mrs May ignored advice from my father, and ultimately, a process that should have taken only a few short months has become a years-long stalemate, leaving the British people in limbo. – Donald Trump Jr. for the Telegraph (£)

Martin Howe: An Article 50 extension would be terrible for Brexiteers, but it is still infinitely better than the PM’s deal

The Speaker’s ruling that the government cannot bring back Theresa May’s deal to the House of Commons for a third time, unless there are “substantial changes”, has triggered outcries that he is biased and trying to frustrate Brexit. I don’t know what is in the Speaker’s mind or what his motivations are, so it is best to look at the ruling on its merits. The rule he cites is Parliament’s equivalent of the “double jeopardy” rule in the courts. It stops the same question – or substantially the same question – being brought to votes repeatedly during the same session of Parliament. Theresa May’s first motion to approve her deal was overwhelmingly defeated on 15 January. After another vote on the ‘Brady’ amendment, she promised to get “legally binding changes” to the backstop. The Attorney General tried to negotiate some extremely limited changes, but failed. She then sent her civil service negotiator to Brussels instead, who came back waving three complicated pieces of legal paper. Under an Article 50 extension, we would have effectively the same transition period but at least we would keep our vote. More importantly, we would not be tied in to the backstop or other parts of the deal such as future money payments, so our negotiating position would be much stronger. So, terrible as an Article 50 extension is for believers in Brexit, it is much much better than Theresa May’s deal. If it comes back again even in those dire circumstances, there is no real choice – it must be voted down again and finally killed. – Martin Howe QC for the Telegraph (£)

James Frayne: Yes, voters are nervous about No Deal. Nonetheless, they simply want the Government to get on with leaving

Where do voters currently stand on the principle of Brexit, the reality of the Government’s handling of it, and the various options theoretically standing before politicians? In this short summary, I provide an analysis of where the polls currently stand, with some thoughts on why the polls are where they are and how the Government should proceed. People still obsess about Brexit. It might be boring them to death, but voters still recognise Brexit to be the most important issue facing the country by far. Ipsos-Mori’s February tracker poll, the most comprehensive issues tracker, showed it’s by far people’s top concern. It’s what people are talking about and will surely affect their voting habits in the medium term. It’s reasonably common to hear people in Westminster argue that the Conservatives’ apparent obsession with Brexit was a net negative at the last election and they missed voters’ focus on austerity/cuts/change and all the rest. There is some truth to this, but Brexit was viewed by many at the time as a done deal that didn’t need affirming. With Brexit now apparently in doubt, it’s more reasonable to assume that it is now the dominant electoral issue of the day, but, of course, this might change. – James Frayne for ConservativeHome

Michael Deacon: Theresa May is begging the EU to delay Brexit. Just imagine if they say no

I still can’t stop thinking about it. That extraordinary moment yesterday afternoon, when James Cleverly (Con, Braintree) protested to John Bercow about his decision to block a third vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The Speaker, complained Mr Cleverly, should have made this announcement before the second vote was held. Because, he whimpered, if MPs had known that it was the last time the deal would come before them, they might have voted for it. Poor MPs. You’ve got to feel for them. After all, how were they supposed to know the Meaningful Vote would be meaningful? Today was a strange one. Nobody in Westminster seemed to have quite recovered from Mr Bercow’s bombshell. Parliament was dazed, jittery, and eerily quiet. In the Commons, Brexit was barely mentioned. Remarkably, no one from any party tabled an Urgent Question about it. Not even “Look, what in the name of all that’s holy is going on here?”, or “Does the Government actually realise that we’re now only ten, that’s ten, days away from leaving without a deal by accident?” Theresa May held a meeting of her Cabinet, to discuss asking the EU to delay Brexit. Yet, according to one attendee, she didn’t actually specify how long a delay she would request, or what reason she would give for requesting it. Perhaps she doesn’t know. “Dear Brussels, please may I have a nine-month extension to decide how long an extension I want, and why I want it.” – Michael Deacon for the Telegraph (£)

Leo McKinstry: No deal has sensationally risen back from the dead, and is now more likely than ever

The Speaker’s extraordinary intervention has transformed the political landscape. Until yesterday, pro-Brexit Tory MPs effectively had a gun to their heads. They were told that they if they did not support the Prime Minister’s despised Withdrawal Agreement in a third meaningful vote, then they would put Britain’s imminent departure from the European Union at serious risk.    The threat was certainly a realistic one, given that the House of Commons voted last week not only to throw out the option of a No Deal exit, but also to back an indefinite extension of Article 50 – the legal instrument to end Britain’s EU membership – if Theresa May’s deal is rejected. But now, thanks to John Bercow’s potential veto on a third vote, the pistol has been put down and the ammunition removed. It is the Government, not the band of Conservative Brexiteers, that is now under extreme pressure. All sorts of wheezes and dodges are being envisaged in the panic-stricken bid to circumvent Bercow’s ruling. The emptiness of the pro-EU case has been demonstrated by the astonishing resilience of the British economy since the referendum, characterised by record employment, rising living standards and a falling deficit. Bercow’s intention with his veto may have been to sabotage Brexit.  But he could end up achieving the exact opposite. It was telling that yesterday in the Commons, the Brexiteers were the cheeriest at this latest twist in the political crisis. Some of them could even be heard whistling the theme to “The Great Escape.” – Lea McKinstry for the Telegraph (£)

Asa Bennett: Speaker Bercow may have just paved the way for an even softer Brexit

Were Tory Brexiteers ready to swallow Theresa May’s Brexit deal this week? We’ll never know now thanks to John Bercow scuppering her hopes of an imminent “third time lucky” ratification. Brexiteers loyal to the Government are up in arms about the Speaker drawing on Erskine May to stop the Prime Minister from putting her deal to a third vote, just weeks after merrily defying convention in order to help arch-Remainer Dominic Grieve out. At the time, he defended himself by insisting that: “If we only went by precedent, manifestly nothing would ever change”. The Speaker cited the parliamentary rulebook to argue that the Government could not put a deal to Parliament that was “the same” as something MPs have already voted on, even though he has been perfectly happy to let MPs table amendment after amendment demanding the same things – staying in the single market, the customs union, and holding a second referendum – despite them being constantly rejected. Speaker Bercow has revived the prospect of a no-deal by blocking Mrs May’s attempt to put her deal to Parliament. But he made clear it could be considered with changes, and there is only one direction the EU would let it change:  in a softer direction. As much as dealsceptic Brexiteers might celebrate the Speaker’s today, he may have played a decisive hand in stitching up an even softer Brexit, and perhaps giving Remainers the momentum they need for another referendum. – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£)

Henry Newman: Stuck-in-the-mud hard Brexiteers could end up destroying our EU departure by chasing their fantasy Brexits

Wake up, MPs! Smell the coffee. Get with the programme. Brexit is slipping away. It risks being killed off entirely by the very MPs who claim to love it the most — Conservative backbench Eurosceptics still chasing fantasy Brexits. Since last week, the options have changed. First, Parliament voted to rule out No Deal. Then MPs backed a Brexit delay. It’s as if the House of Commons is following Tony Blair’s step-by-step guide to overturning the 2016 referendum. A No Deal Brexit will only happen in nine days’ time if the EU refuses an extension. That is unlikely. Theresa May will beg for a delay, whatever the conditions. EU members will not want to be blamed for a messy No Deal outcome. From next week, MPs could start voting on their preferred Brexit options through so-called indicative votes. Spoiler alert — they will not end up backing a harder exit. I know there are Leave voters who do not like Theresa May’s Brexit deal. But if you do not like her deal, look at the alternative options for softer Brexits, which would be far worse for the country. If you think this deal risks the UK getting stuck in a customs union, just wait till you see what the deal would look like with Labour’s “permanent” customs union glued on top. – Henry Newman for The Sun

Jack Maidment: How John Bercow, the Speaker who voted Remain, has shaped Brexit and frustrated Theresa May

John Bercow stunned Westminster when he unexpectedly announced he would block a third meaningful vote on Theresa May’s deal. The Commons Speaker cited a parliamentary convention dating back to 1604 as he said he would only allow another vote if the Prime Minister changed her deal because MPs had already rejected it. Mr Bercow now finds himself at the centre of a political and constitutional storm – and not for the first time. The Speaker of the House of Commons is a politically impartial role with the holder expected to sit as a completely non-partisan figure. But Mr Bercow has been repeatedly accused of failing to stick to that rule with criticism peaking in 2017 after it emerged he had told a group of students he voted to Remain at the 2016 EU referendum. Friends of the Speaker have said he intends to step down in June this year, after Britain is currently scheduled to have left the EU, but he is yet to formally comment on his future. – Jack Maidment for the Telegraph (£)

Chris White: May’s Commons options after Bercow’s ruling

Yesterday, less than two weeks before the UK is due, as matters stand, to exit the EU without a deal, John Bercow threw a large spanner into the Government’s plans by declaring that unless a “new proposition that is neither the same nor substantially the same” as the last Meaningful Vote is tabled, he will decline to allow the existing deal to be resubmitted.  It is unlikely that there will now be a further vote on the Government’s deal this week, certainly before the Prime Minister heads to Brussels to ask for an extension. In justifying his ruling, the Speaker quoted extensively from Erskine May, the Parliamentary ‘Bible’, citing the long-established precedent that a Government can’t simply keep submitting the same motion again and again, and hope that the Commons will eventually cave in. When challenged by Mark Francois as to whether the same double jeopardy rules would apply to a Cooper-Boles Bill to take control of the Parliamentary timetable, or by Robert Halfon about whether a second referendum vote could be brought back again, he declined to give a ruling, saying that it would depend on the “circumstances”. So one rule for the Government, and a different one for everyone else…- Chris White for ConservativeHome

Robert Peston: Theresa May doesn’t have a Plan B

When Theresa May asks the EU’s 27 government heads for a Brexit delay on Thursday, they will reply ‘what’s it for, Mme Prime Minister?’ And the problem she’s got — we’ve got — is she doesn’t know, as the junior Brexit minister Kwasi Kwarteng made crystal clear when questioned in the Commons yesterday. All she has is her deal, rejected comprehensively by MPs twice and ruled as ultra vires for a third vote by the Speaker yesterday. There is no Plan B, there never has been. So those same EU leaders are almost certain, according to well-placed sources, to postpone the decision on whether to grant a Brexit delay and on how long that extension would be. They will ‘ask for more clarity from the UK’ on the purpose of a delay. ‘After all there is still a whole week to go’, my source said sardonically. The decision on a Brexit postponement would be made while the UK is clinging on to EU membership by the tips of exhausted fingers, with hours to go before the official Brexit day of 29 March. – Robert peston for The Spectator

Telegraph: Even the Government admits it’s in crisis, what next for Mrs May?

Normally when political pandemonium breaks out, No 10 tries to remain the still voice of calm at the centre of the storm. Such insouciance can backfire as when James Callaghan returned from an overseas visit in 1979 into the middle of the “Winter of Discontent” to ask (though he actually didn’t) “Crisis? What crisis?” A few months later his government was toppled by a vote of no confidence. As is all too apparent, these are not normal times; so Downing Street, far from pretending all is under control, when it patently is not, used the ‘‘C’’ word. Yes, said a spokesman, a crisis has come to pass. Disconcertingly, there is little to suggest they know how to deal with it. Theresa May evidently takes the view that this is all the fault of MPs who she warned on many occasions risked just such a crisis if they failed to support her Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. There seems to be no sense behind the famous black door that the responsibility might lie within. Mrs May’s method of chairing Cabinet meetings is to hold a discussion but then leave ministers in the dark as to what she considers to be the agreed position. This is one reason why several of her colleagues no longer feel bound by collective responsibility and either brief against the Prime Minister or vote against her in the Commons. The old maxim that Mrs May is in office but not in power feels apposite. The day she appointed for Brexit is just nine days away. What will she do if the deadline is missed? – Telegraph (£) editorial

Chris Moncrieff: Parliament ordered the EU referendum… now it must honour the result

Are we witnessing the greatest parliamentary betrayal ever inflicted on the British people? Forget all the complex Brexit motions and their even more complicated amendments and the otiose language being used at Westminster and consider instead the simple issue of the honour of parliamentarians, because it is now seriously in question. Parliament ordered the referendum and vowed it would honour the result. To their great shame, many MPs are now betraying that pledge. The Remainers were so cocksure of winning that they conducted a ludicrously low-key and complacent referendum campaign. The allegations they are making now and the questions they’re asking should have been aired during the campaign. Furthermore, the suggestion that the referendum revealed a divided nation and should mean a second vote is just so much nonsense. All elections reveal that – and Winston Churchill, when asked what he considered a satisfactory majority, replied: “One vote.” – Chris Moncrieff for the Belfast Telegraph

Robert Shrimsley: Bercow’s bombshell cannot mask May’s Brexit failure

Narrow, rigid, unimaginative, sly, secretive and wholly lacking in the political skills necessary to win over voters or build alliances, rarely can a leader have looked less suited to the task before them. This is the consensus view of the British prime minister. Even before the Speaker of the House of Commons lobbed a grenade into Mrs May’s Brexit strategy by threatening to bar her efforts to keep MPs voting on her deal until they cave in, the prime ministerial motor was running on fumes. (For all the drama of John Bercow’s ruling, a way can always be found for a majority in parliament to carry its will — and if there is no majority then his ruling does not matter anyway.) But even if Mrs May manages to sidestep the Speaker and finally secure her unloved Brexit deal, there will be few to defend her legacy. Remainers will despise her for not championing a softer Brexit, while Leavers will say she has sold out the dream. Mrs May, all will argue, was simply not up the task. She was a weak premier who could not lead, could not heal and could not negotiate. – Robert Shrimsley for the FT(£)

Oliver Patel: With No Deal looming, it’s highly unlikely the EU will refuse an Article 50 extension

After Parliament voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal for the second time, against no-deal, and in favour of extending Article 50, the government will now formally request an extension of Article 50. The 27 EU leaders will consider this request at the European Council summit later this week, and must decide unanimously whether to approve it. The consistent message from EU leaders is that extension is an option, but its approval is not guaranteed. It will only be forthcoming if the UK offers a valid justification for such a request. But what exactly constitutes a valid justification? Thus far, the messaging has been mixed, with some EU leaders stating they want to see a workable majority in Parliament for a new plan, and others not insisting on such criteria. Although the EU is under no obligation to grant the UK an extension, there are strong legal and political reasons to believe they would. If the UK asked for a lengthy extension to hold a referendum or general election, a short extension to get an approved deal ratified (which looks unlikely after the Speaker’s dramatic intervention), or a lengthy extension to buy time to pursue a softer version of Brexit which Parliament indicatively supports, the EU would almost certainly approve. These are all concrete plans which could result in highly favourable outcomes for the EU. Predicting what Parliament does next, or where the Brexit process will end up, is a foolish endeavour. However, with the prospect of no-deal looming large, it is highly unlikely that the EU will refuse the UK’s request for extension, despite the tough rhetoric. Brexit on 29 March has never looked less likely. – Oliver Patel for the Huffington Post

Daniel Finkelstein: Getting rid of Theresa May solves nothing

All this stuff about backstops and the Irish border? We wouldn’t be in this position if it wasn’t for her. So if we are going to move to the next stage let’s get someone who really believes in Brexit and will tell Europe what’s what. Mrs May is coming to the end of her time in 10 Downing Street. During last December’s leadership vote she promised not to fight the next election and this helped win her a further year in office, protected from challenge. However, if she were still to be leader this December she would in all likelihood be challenged again and this time with a far greater chance of losing, partly because it will be harder to retain cabinet support. She would rather go than be pushed, I’m sure. So, while the Brexit timetable may yet upset this calculation, logic suggests that the party conference in October will mark her departure or the formal start of a leadership contest. But it won’t make much difference. Not to the negotiations in any case. To believe anything else is delusional. – Daniel Finkelstein for The Times (£)

Mark Wallace: Why – resentfully – I would vote for the Prime Minister’s deal

I deeply dislike Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement. It doesn’t fulfil her promises, it doesn’t maximise the opportunities of Brexit, and it doesn’t fully free our country from the undemocratic EU. On her own terms, it is a bad deal. But we have reached a point at which MPs ought to vote for it. The value of the proposal has not improved – no legalese figleaf or empty verbal assurance makes it any better. Rather, the alternative to it has changed. The negotiating logic that No Deal is better than a bad deal still stands. I would support a No Deal Brexit if one was on offer, as we were promised. But it no longer is. Exit without a deal on 29 March remains the legal default. The rules and conventions of our democracy – as well as May’s very clear promise – should make that almost impossible to change. But politicians accustomed to getting their way have decided to get what they want at any cost. The Speaker disgraces his office by ignoring his responsibility to be impartial. The House of Lords overreaches its constitutional role to meddle in the purpose of legislation. Cabinet ministers abandon collective responsibility. All these are outrageous offences: powerful people prioritising their desires above the rules and reputation of our democracy. But while it is disgraceful, it has still happened. Despite the severe cost to Parliament, enough politicians have behaved dishonourably that they are about to get what they want. The choice facing us – for now, at least – has changed from “deal or no deal” to “deal or no Brexit”. – Mark Wallace for ConservativeHome

The Sun: Britain is on the brink of global humiliation… our feeble politicians must do their duty to our democracy

Almost three years on from our historic Brexit vote, we are close to global humiliation. The EU holds nearly all the cards. Theresa May is begging to extend the March 29 deadline. Brussels may demand the softest possible Brexit in exchange. The PM could of course head for No Deal, as half the country wants. But she lacks the guts. And Parliament is ready to defy voters and our inconvenient referendum verdict to stop her anyway. The Tory ERG holdouts should take a good look at themselves. If we end up with no Brexit or a supersoft version — Corbyn is already plotting one that even surrenders border controls — it will now be largely their fault. Unless, that is, MPs override the appalling Speaker Bercow and approve the PM’s deal at its third airing. It will be the last chance to avoid capitulation. The last chance for a generation of feeble politicians to do their duty by our democracy and the 17.4million majority. – The Sun says

Daily Mail: 1,000 days of incompetence, betrayal and now national humiliation… how did victory turn to this?

Exactly 1,000 days ago today, the British electorate went in unprecedented numbers to the ballot box for the EU referendum. And when 17.4 million voted Leave, on a 24-year-high turnout of 72 per cent, they gave the Government the biggest democratic mandate in UK history. With a sense of quiet jubilation, courage, determination and ambition, the people said precisely what they wanted: To cast off the sclerotic bloc’s chains and step out into the world. Defiantly ignoring the unseemly bombardment of ‘Project Fear’ scare stories from biblical prophets of doom, who warned economic catastrophe would befall Britain, the indomitable public sent a clear message to the politicians: Get us out! It is difficult to envisage how the hardliners will be able to look each other in the face if Britain is forced to stay in the EU, let alone deal with the anger of millions of voters. Now Mrs May will write to Brussels requesting an extension, although it is not clear what Mr Barnier, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker et al will offer. Whatever it is, it will undoubtedly come attached with painful conditions. But if the Prime Minister manages to wangle a third vote on her deal, Brexiteers must decide what they really want: swallowing leaving the EU on her terms, seeing it diluted or consigned to the dustbin of history. If it is the latter, 1,000 days — and 1,000 potential opportunities — will have been shamefully wasted. How did victory turn to this? – Daily Mail editorial

Henry Deedes: the European Union’s maddening man Michel Barnier goading Britain once again as he runs ring around us

Michel Barnier strode on stage at the EU headquarters in Brussels yesterday, a model, as ever, of self-satisfied Gallic charm. He looked calm and well rested. So relaxed, in fact, he could have just returned from a weekend sipping ice-cool highballs on Pampelonne beach. What a contrast here at Westminster, where our exhausted Prime Minister looks as though she hasn’t slept on her own pillow for weeks, let alone been anywhere near the French Riviera. Negotiation is a finely balanced art of bluff and deception, and although wily Monsieur Barnier is not a man you would trust to share a bottle of water with crossing a desert, the sad truth is he has run rings around us from the get-go. One of his most irritating tricks has been to portray himself as someone who regards the whole Brexit hullabaloo as a mere passing irritant, a mind-numbing piece of bureaucracy clogging up his in-tray. Negotiations? Bof! A tedious aside that his diary secretary has squeezed in between a postprandial game of pétanque and his early evening cinq à sept. Here he was again, goading the British Government, expressing doubts about Theresa May’s chances of getting her deal through. Not, of course, he seemed to imply that he was much bothered. – Henry Deedes for Daily Mail

Brexit in Brief

  • The real missed opportunity of Brexit – Rebecca Lowe for CapX
  • John Bercow and his Remainer cheerleaders are doing irrevocable damage to our democracy – Tom Harris for the Telegraph (£)
  • Is it time for the Queen to decide the fate of Brexit? – Andrew Lilico for the Telegraph (£)
  • Would a written constitution have prevented this Brexit quagmire? – Philip Johnston for the Telegraph (£)
  • Why Remainers were shocked by the referendum result, but Leavers less so – James Kanagasooriam for The Spectator
  • The EU’s anti-democratic culture. First it corrupted other countries. Now it is corrupting Britain – Daniel Hannan MEP for ConservativeHome
  • 60% of people think the BBC is biased against Brexit – Guido Fawkes
  • Voters blast MPs over Brexit saying they’re only delaying it because they want to stay in EU – The Sun