Theresa May warns Tory Brexit rebels that they risk ‘incentivising’ EU to offer UK a bad deal… Theresa May has warned Tory rebels that giving Parliament a meaningful vote on Brexit will “incentivise” the European Union to offer the UK “bad deal”. The Government is on Tuesday facing a second defeat in the Lords as peers back an amendment calling for Parliament to be given a meaningful vote on the Prime Minister’s final Brexit deal. The amendment would result in Parliament being given the power to stop Mrs May from walking away from the EU without any deal at all. More than a dozen Tory peers are expected to rebel against the Government in the Lords while more than 20 Tory MPs are prepared to rebel over the issue in the Commons – more than double the number that previously voted for it. – Daily Telegraph …as the Government is braced for a second Lords Brexit defeat on Labour ‘meaningful vote’ call Labour will force a vote on its calls for MPs and peers to be given a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal Theresa May agrees with Brussels. Insiders predict the amendment could pass with a majority close to the one which saw the Government defeated on EU citizen’s rights last week. The Labour frontbench could also force a vote on demands for quarterly government reports to Parliament on the progress of the Brexit negotiations. Peers will also the EU (Notification of Withdrawl) Bill at third reading tomorrow night, with the Commons set to consider the amended version again next Monday. Ministers have said they will use their Commons majority to try to overturn any changes to the bill made in the Lords, while they could try to buy off the amendments tomorrow by offering verbal assurances about the Government’s stance on parliamentary scrutiny. – PoliticsHome Lawfare: desperate Remainers’ last throw of the dice – Christopher Howarth for ConservativeHome The House of Lords’ case for giving Parliament a ‘meaningful vote’ on Brexit is flawed – Daily Telegraph …and former chancellor Norman Lamont warns Brexit is “under attack” A former Conservative chancellor has warned that Brexit is “under attack”, calling on the House of Lords to “see sense”. Lord Lamont said yesterday that Prime Minister Theresa May should be allowed to begin official negotiations as soon as possible. Lamont, who supported exiting the EU, served as chancellor under John Major between 1990 and 1993, before being replaced by long-time Europhile Kenneth Clarke. Making a speech in central London, Lamont slammed calls for mechanisms allowing Article 50 to be revoked if public opinion shifts, arguing such efforts show some peers and MPs “oppose the results of the referendum”. “Some say maybe in the future the British people will change their minds. By that, they mean that they would like to change their minds for them,” Lamont said. – City A.M. > Lord Lamont of Lerwick on BrexitCentral today: My fellow peers should honour the referendum result and pass the Article 50 Bill unamended Peugeot chief welcomes “nice opportunity” of “hard Brexit” and pledges to step up UK presence Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Peugeot owner PSA, has promised to step up the company’s presence in the UK in the event of a “hard Brexit” in a potential boost for the British car industry. Mr Tavares said an EU exit that incurs tariffs presents an “opportunity” to source more components from the UK, raising the possibility that other international manufacturers will also cement production in Britain to protect against import tariffs. “A hard Brexit from UK plants will be a nice opportunity in terms of business. This is something that the UK government completely understands,” he said, as the group announced a €2.2bn deal to buy Vauxhall’s lossmaking European parent Opel from General Motors. – FT (£) European Arrest Warrant membership ‘a priority’ for Brexit talks, Amber Rudd confirms The Home Secretary said it was a “priority” for the Government to keep the EAW, which allows suspects to be arrested and transferred across EU member states, in the upcoming Brexit negotiations. The Government has consistently underlined the importance of continued security and policing co-operation after Brexit but has, until today, refused to be drawn on specific measures. In the Commons today, Ms Rudd was asked to “guarantee” continued membership of the EAW by Labour MP Chris Leslie, who drew attention to Theresa May’s plea in 2014 that ditching the measure would make the UK a ”honeypot for all of Europe’s criminals on the run from justice”. “I certainly agree with the principle that the European Arrest Warrant is an effective tool and is absolutely essential to delivering effective judgment to the murderers, rapists and paedophiles that we have managed to seek judgment on,” the minister said. “It is a priority to ensure that we do remain part of it and I can also reassure Honourable colleagues throughout the House that this is something European partners want to achieve as well.” – PoliticsHome > Rory Broomfield on BrexitCentral: Reforming or Exiting the European Arrest Warrant must be part of Brexit International Trade Committee urges May to study rejoining EFTA Prime Minister Theresa May should consider taking Britain back into the European Free Trade Association, the four-country body it left in 1972, in order to jump-start its post-Brexit trade negotiations, a panel of lawmakers said. Britain was one of the founders of EFTA in 1960, but left in order to join the body that became the European Union. Now it’s quitting the EU, it could rejoin to take advantage of the 27 free-trade agreements that the grouping already has, according to a report by Parliament’s International Trade Committee, which has a majority of Brexit-supporting members from May’s Conservative Party. The suggestion that Britain might rejoin came from EFTA itself, according to James Cleverly, one of the Tories on the committee. The panel was in Geneva talking to the World Trade Organization when officials from EFTA, which includes Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein, asked for a meeting, he said. – Bloomberg Wages are rising and job postings are increasing despite Brexit UK wages and job postings continue to increase despite the economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit, according to job site CV-Library. The research found that average salaries rose 1.9% year-on-year in February, slightly above the national inflation rate of 1.8%. The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report, published in February, predicted an annual growth of 3.5% this year, above a projected inflation rate of 2.8%. The news comes after several major forecasters admitted errors in their forecasting which suggested the UK economy would be less resilient than it has proven to be. American investment bank Morgan Stanley said in January that it was “eating humble pie” over its prediction that Britain would fall into immediate recession when it voted to leave the European Union. – Business Insider Apprentices may bridge post Brexit labour shortages, employers’ campaign claims… Apprentices can help bridge the gap of labour shortages if the UK loses access to skilled workers following Brexit, research by apprentice and graduate entry to work campaigners, The 5% Club, claims. In a survey of 200 UK employers, 89 per cent said that Brexit would make no difference to the number of apprentices they will take on. Nine out of ten (90 per cent) of respondents said that improvements in the quality of information offered by school’s career services could help to change the image of apprenticeships at a national level. Launched three years ago by Balfour Beatty Chief Executive, Leo Quinn, The 5% Club has been established up to encourage cross-industry action to tackle skills shortages and to reduce youth unemployment. Membership of the The 5% Club includes many of the UK’s mst well known companies such as Babock, Pinsent Masons, KPMG, Cobham, Kier and VIsion Express. – City A.M. …as survey finds 89% of businesses won’t change their hiring policy after Brexit A survey of 200 businesses by The 5 per cent Club – whose members commit to ensuring 5 per cent of their workforce are apprentices – found that 89 per cent won’t change their hiring policy after Brexit. – Daily Mail ‘Fortress Europe’ to photograph and fingerprint British travellers after Brexit Americans travelling to Europe this summer face much tougher controls as a result of a vote in the European Parliament. British travellers can also expect much more red tape after the UK leaves the EU. Simon Calder explains why and how the bureaucratic barriers are going up across Europe. What exactly did the European Parliament vote for? MEPs have demanded that the EU Commission makes visas mandatory for US visitors within two months, by suspending the current “visa waiver” for its nationals for a year. “The EU Commission is legally obliged to take measures temporarily reintroducing visa requirements for US citizens, given that Washington still does not grant visa-free access to nationals of five EU countries,” said a communique from Brussels. – The Independent Peers call for curbs on Great Repeal Bill Parliament should limit ministers’ powers to change legislation during the Brexit process without full scrutiny in order to stop the government picking and choosing which laws it wants to keep, a group of peers has recommended. Ministers will introduce a Great Repeal Bill this year to revoke the 1972 European Communities Act and incorporate EU laws on to the domestic statute book from the day Britain leaves the union, which is expected to be in 2019. Because the legislation must pass through parliament while Theresa May, the prime minister, is still negotiating the terms of Britain’s exit, the bill is likely to include sweeping powers to repeal or amend a wide range of laws with only limited parliamentary scrutiny. The powers are known as “Henry VIII clauses” after a 1539 statute that let the king legislate by proclamation. – FT (£) Britain urged to strengthen Commonwealth trade ties Britain needs to devote far more energy into boosting commercial ties with the Commonwealth in order to mitigate the economic impact of Brexit, according to Patricia Scotland, the organisation’s secretary-general. As she prepares to host a summit of ministers from the 52-member body in London this week, Baroness Scotland — who has faced considerable controversy over her role, including claims of financial extravagance — said Britain had “failed to take full advantage of the opportunities in the Commonwealth” and must now “go an awful lot faster” in trading with its members. “Because a choice has been made that the United Kingdom is going to leave the EU, we now have even more need to up our game in the Commonwealth,” she said in an interview with the FT. – FT (£) German minister warns UK over trade and predicts gains for Frankfurt Britain would be “naive” to expect generous trade deals when it quits the European Union, the German minister responsible for its financial centre said on Monday, adding that Frankfurt would grab business from London. While France has long made no secret about its ambition to take business from London, German politicians have largely avoided such statements and Tarek Al-Wazir’s show a desire in Germany to profit from Brexit, potentially complicating Britain’s attempt to strike a trade deal with the EU. Al-Wazir, a minister in the state of Hesse, in Germany’s industrial heartland, told Reuters that British politicians were unrealistic in hoping for generous terms for future trade deals. “It is naive to believe that countries are simply waiting to strike trade deals with Great Britain after Brexit,” he said. “Whoever wants to attract companies with tax cuts cannot expect to be rewarded with generous trade deals. It won’t happen.” – Reuters Post-Brexit pound slump drives online export boom for UK companies British companies have seen a surge in international sales since the UK voted to leave the EU in June, according to a new research. Online payment firm PayPal, revealed that small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in the UK saw international PayPal sales more than treble due to the post-Brexit slump in the value of the pound which makes products cheaper for overseas buyers. The amount foreign shoppers spent with UK SMEs already rose 10 per cent year-on-year from January to June 2016, the rate of growth then trebled to 34 per cent year-on-year from July to December. – The Independent Anti-Brexit billboards appear across the UK A poster campaign by anti-Brexit activists got under way in earnest this week, with billboards appearing throughout the country urging the public to speak out over the Government’s hard Brexit policy. The campaign group Stop the Silence raised more than £70,000 via crowdfunding to pay for the posters, which have been erected in areas such as London, Bournemouth and Cardiff over the past few days. Writing on Facebook, the group said: “This campaign encourages peers to listen to the people as it considers safeguards to guarantee that the final deal will be in the best interests of the people. – Daily Telegraph Lord Hague: The case for an early general election – Theresa May should be free to put her Brexit plans to the people When the Conservative negotiating team sat down to sort out a coalition on the day after the 2010 general election, our Liberal Democrat counterparts were quite clear about one thing they needed above all else: a fixed-term parliament. They feared that if the Tories became more popular and the Liberals less so – which did indeed happen – then we could pull the rug from under them at any time by calling another election. Since the very same thought, more wickedly, crossed our own minds, we could understand why they needed this and we agreed to it. The result was the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, removing the power of the Prime Minister to dissolve parliament earlier than the end of a five-year term. That, in turn, means the next election cannot be held before May 2020, unless two-thirds of the House of Commons agrees to it, or a vote of no confidence in the Government is carried and no alternative government can be formed in the following 14 days. – Lord Hague for the Daily Telegraph Daniel Hannan MEP: Brexiteers never said EU nationals should be forced to leave Britain The Lords are making a serious mistake – one that could lead to the abolition of their chamber. In amending the bill that authorises the prime minister to trigger Brexit, peers have picked a fight with the Government on the worst possible ground. The House of Lords is, of course, allowed (sometimes supposed) to ask the House of Commons to think again about an issue. On this occasion, though, peers are taking on the electorate as a whole, not just MPs. It’s true, as Remainers say, that the referendum didn’t specify a particular form of Brexit. The Leave vote was an instruction to the Government to negotiate our withdrawal from the EU on the best possible terms. – Daniel Hannan MEP for IBTimes David Allen Green: Brexit and Gibraltar What are the consequences for Gibraltar of that referendum’s overall vote for Brexit? Has the vote for Leave placed the Rock in a hard place? Gibraltar is an “overseas territory” of the UK of about two and half square miles. It has no natural resources and until fairly recently did not even have a secure supply of drinking water. The population is just over 30,ooo. The UK is still responsible for Gibraltar’s external relations and defence but little else: the territory has its own government, its own tax system, its own currency and its own legal system. But the territory has a gross domestic product of about £1.5bn. In terms of GDP per head, Gibraltar is one of the most affluent places in the world. And that is primarily because of its relationship with the UK and the EU and a thriving services sector linked to the European single market. Brexit puts all this at risk, as last week’s House of Lords report sets out. – FT (£) Lord Salisbury: Use Brexit to reform the Lords and overhaul the UK’s constitution I am a convinced Brexiteer. I even voted “no” in 1975. I believe that our departure will present this country with the greatest opportunity since Henry VIII’s breach with Rome. There will be much in the way of blood sweat and tears on the way, but restoring the supremacy of our national law and rebuilding our strong representative institutions are the prerequisites for sustained prosperity and a successful polity. An ancient regime like the EU, governing from the top down, seldom effectively accountable, burdened as it is with the poverty-creation machine that is the single currency, cannot possibly give us the same chance of long-term success. The majority of members of the Lords, brought up in the age of Ted Heath and Macmillan and believing that the best we can hope for as a nation is the elegant management of decline, disagrees. They profoundly believe that our destiny should be as members of the EU. It wants to use the House’s power to amend and delay to frustrate Brexit. – Lord Salisbury for Reaction Nigel Farage MEP: Theresa May has failed before and she will fail again on Brexit talks We are over eight months on now from the UK’s vote to leave the European Union and the rate of progress has been staggeringly slow. As a country, the UK is now embarking on one of the most defining journeys in its history and British Prime Minister Theresa May and the Conservatives offer me absolutely no reason for optimism. She should have invoked article 50 immediately following the vote to prevent legal cases and quagmires in the House of Commons and House of Lords. In 2017, we will see the Dutch, the French and the Germans going to the polls. There will always be an excuse for delaying. Yes, the negotiations will be difficult but it is time we saw some strong, assertive leadership from May. Quite frankly, I don’t think she is up to it. She can talk the talk with tough speeches but when it comes to walking the walk she has failed before and I fear she will fail again. – Nigel Farage MEP for The Parliament magazine Jake Sumner: Why post-Brexit Britain needs Nigeria Post-Brexit, Britain will face a trading challenge. This is one of the most important economic realities of our time. The subject was in the spotlight again last week, as the Office of National Statistics published a new report on Britain’s global trading relationships. Understandably, most attention was given to the United States and the European Union itself: deals with both will be vital to Britain’s future success. But so too will the development of trading relationships with smaller economies, one example being a country 4,000 miles south of the UK. With 180m people, Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, its biggest democracy and, as the International Monetary Fund reconfirmed in October, its largest economy. This presents a huge opportunity for trade—but the UK is letting this slip by. When I was on a trade mission to Nigeria and Ghana in 2014 I was consistently asked by officials and business leaders why the UK had so little business presence in these countries. There was little dialogue between the countries at the senior level of government—surprisingly, as the UK was said to be scaling back in Francophone West Africa to concentrate in Anglophone Nigeria and Ghana. – Jake Sumner for Prospect magazine Diane James MEP: If the EU impose tariffs on post-Brexit UK, they would only be damaging rheir own economies It is a fallacy to propose that the imposition of EU tariffs on UK goods would benefit Europe and economically damage the United Kingdom. To begin with, why do people buy imported goods? They do so either because (a) these goods cannot be manufactured in the importing country, or (b) because the domestically produced goods are more expensive, or of lower quality. It would firstly be illogical to expect the EU to impose tariffs on any goods falling within the criteria of (a) – a point illustrated by the exclusion of Russian energy exports to the EU from sanctions – so the argument rests only on goods within (b). – Diane James MEP for Huffington Post Sam Farley: If I have to hear another sneering Remain voter say Cornwall ‘got what it deserved’ over Brexit, I’ll explode This week saw Cornwall receive much derision after the Government decided to award £18m to prop up the county’s weak economy, with the area now set to lose £60m of annual funding from the EU. Social media was awash with commentators saying that the region got what it deserved for voting Leave. They wanted Brexit, people said, and now they have it, they want us to pay for the disadvantages. Many people – mostly those based in other, more affluent parts of the country – crowed about the apparently hilarious irony. Unfortunately, this patronising approach doesn’t address the reasons behind the vote, or, more crucially, the damage that will now come due to the shortfall in funding. It does little more than make Remainers feel superior. – Sam Farley for The Independent Brexit comment in brief The isolation of Angela Merkel’s Germany – Gideon Rachman for the FT (£) Why it matters if the public has lost faith in government economic forecasts post-Brexit – Ryan Bourne for the IEA A patriotic Brexit means keeping our neighbours close – Clare Moody MEP and Thangam Debbonaire MP for the Huffington Post The final Brexit deal must honour the public’s desire for reduced net migration – Lord Green of Deddington for The UK in a Changing Europe I’m sick of Remoaners – even though I voted Remain – Margaret Mountford for the Daily Telegraph Brexit news in brief Northern Ireland result puts Brexit back centre-stage – FT (£)