Brexit News for Tuesday 7th February

Brexit News for Tuesday 7th February

A report from PwC says Britain will outpace the G7 for ‘next three decades’

Britain will grow faster than any other major advanced economy over the next three decades as the EU’s share of global output diminishes, according to PwC. UK economic growth is predicted to outpace the US, Canada, France and Germany between 2016 and 2050, with average annual growth of 1.9pc.This is also double the average annual pace of growth expected in Japan and Italy. While the UK’s decision to leave the EU is expected to exert “some medium-term drag” on the economy, PwC signalled that Britain was in prime position to forge new trade ties with “faster-growing emerging economies”, which are expected to cement their status as the engines of global growth. – Daily Telegraph

  • ‘UK could be fastest-growing G7 economy if it gets trade deals right’ – Guardian
  • Brexit won’t stop Britain growing faster than France and Germany – BusinessInsider
  • Brexit will not affect UK economy’s long term future, a new study suggests- Independent
  • Post-Brexit Britain Can Keep Place in Top 10 Economies, PwC Says – Bloomberg

Government defeats all last night’s Article 50 Bill amendments on first day of committee stage

Theresa May has warned MPs not to obstruct the Brexit bill during its second phase of debate in the House of Commons, as Labour failed in its attempt to secure regular parliamentary scrutiny of the EU negotiations. The prime minister called on MPs not to use parliamentary procedures to delay the passage of the bill, which will be debated over the next three days. – The Guardian

Europhile MPs have tabled a slew of amendments to the draft law as they mount a rearguard action to limit the impact of our departure… Mrs May pointed out that the legislation had been passed at second reading stage last week by a huge majority. A series of votes will be held over the next few days, before the action moves to the House of Lords – where resistance is likely to be even fiercer. – Daily Mail

> Today on BrexitCentral: Results of Commons votes from the Committee Stage of the Article 50 Bill

Theresa May rejects a unilateral guarantee of EU citizens’ rights…

Theresa May has come under pressure from within her own party to guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the U.K. at an early stage in the Brexit negotiations. Nine Conservative MPs questioned May on the issue in the House of Commons Monday, ahead of a vote Wednesday on legislation that will grant the government the authority to trigger Article 50, formally starting the Brexit process. An amendment to the bill, put forward by the Labour MP Harriet Harman and supported by the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats, would guarantee the residency rights of EU citizens in Britain. – Politico

  • Theresa May praises “the contribution to our society and economy” of EU migrants – Financial Times (£)

…while the SNP is set to oppose a symbolic Brexit vote at Holyrood…

The Supreme Court ruled last month that there was no legal need for Holyrood to give its consent to the triggering of Article 50. But First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would let MSPs have a say in what will be a largely symbolic vote. The SNP tried to block the UK government’s Brexit bill last week. Only one of Scotland’s 59 MPs – Scottish Secretary David Mundell – supported the bill, but it ultimately passed its first parliamentary hurdle by 498 votes to 114. – BBC

…with the support of Scottish Labour

Kezia Dugdale has delivered a humiliating rejection of Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to Brexit by announcing she will vote against the triggering of Article 50 at Holyrood today. Despite Mr Corbyn ordering his MPs to back the UK Government’s EU Withdrawal Bill in the Commons, his Scottish leader said it left too many unanswered questions to support. Ms Dugdale said Scottish Labour accepted the UK was leaving the European Union, but not the terms of the “hard Brexit” currently being proposed by Theresa May. – Scottish Herald

Warsaw will make pact against EU states that seek to punish Britain over Brexit, says Polish leader

For a conservative ideologue and political firebrand who has vowed to launch a “cultural counter-revolution” against the centralising tendencies of the European Union, Jaroslaw Kaczyński is disarmingly quiet in person. Officially, as he likes to describe himself, Mr Kaczyński is just a humble MP and chairman of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party, but in practice he holds the uncontested position of the most powerful man in Poland and virtual puppet-master to the country’s prime minister and president. When Angela Merkel, the German chancellor visits Poland this week, it is to Mr Kaczyński’s door that she will beat a path as she tries to establish how Poland will play its cards as the power dynamics of Europe are re-shuffled by Brexit. – Telegraph (£)

EU institutions not in a ‘position to dictate’ Brexit ‘punishment’ – Hungarian government

Zoltan Kovacs, the spokesman for the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, said his country did not intend to scold the UK for voting Leave in the EU referendum. He said Hungary hoped for a “fair Brexit” and slammed those who want Britain to pay a hefty price to leave the European bloc. “I don’t believe the Hungarian attitude should be coming on that way (sic), on that line at all. If someone talks about a punishment, he or she is on the wrong track,” he told Sky News. “It should be done, I mean negotiations, Brexit should be done in a fair way that is mutually beneficial for everyone and I don’t believe that the European institutions are in a position to dictate.” – Daily Express

Ruth Davidson: ‘Foolhardy’ to devolve all EU agriculture powers to Scotland after Brexit

Ruth Davidson yesterday told farming leaders it would be “foolhardy” to give MSPs the power to create an entirely separate Scottish replacement for the EU’s controversial Common Agricultural Policy after Brexit. The Scottish Tory leader said she expected “an almighty political row” over the coming months over whether Westminster or Holyrood runs agriculture after powers are repatriated from Brussels. She argued it would be wrong to create barriers within the UK domestic market – the destination of 85 per cent of Scotland’s ‘agri-exports’ – by having different systems on both sides of the Border. – Daily Telegraph

UK car sales grow at fastest pace in 12 years despite concerns over Brexit slowdown

Increasing demand from private consumers saw UK car sales hit a 12-year high in January, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said on Monday (6 February). New car registrations rose 2.9% last month to hit 174,564 units, the highest figure on record since 2005, boosted by a 5% rise in private car registrations, the first increase since March 2016. The industry body added the number of alternatively fuelled vehicles grew 19.9% to take a record 4.2% market share and surpassing the 4% threshold for the first time. – International Business Times

Sterling may become ‘Swiss franc on steroids’

Bank of America has advised clients to prepare for a major rebound in sterling as markets become inured to each breathless twist in the Brexit saga, and focus instead on the underlying resilience of the UK economy. The bank’s currency team said there may be one last leg down for the pound after Article 50 is triggered in March, probably hitting a three-decade low of $1.15 against the dollar before charging back up in V-shaped recovery later this year. “The pound looks cheap.  We think the start of the countdown to Brexit may prove to be the low and the opportunity to enter sterling longs (positions),” said strategists Athanasios Vamvakidis and Kamal Sharma. – Daily Telegraph (£)

  • Pound soars as ‘tables have turned’ against dollar – Daily Express

Trump snub to EU: Eurocrats to meet US officials but President ignores Juncker invitation

Brussels officials are set to jet out to Washington DC to meet their counterparts in the new US administration – but an invitation for President Donald Trump to visit the EU has apparently been snubbed. But EU officials also admitted they have made little to no progress in trying to chase up their invitation for Mr Trump to attend an EU-US summit with European leaders.  The revelations come on the same day the Republican’s pick for his new ambassador to Brussels launched an extraordinary attack on the bloc, saying the new President will take “no bull****” from the EU. – Daily Express

Mark Harper MP: Short – but perfectly formed. Why the Article 50 Bill needs no amendment

The Bill as it stands accomplishes one simple and important thing: establishing the right of the Government to carry out the will of the people as expressed in the Referendum, carried out with the overwhelming support of Parliament. As such, it allows the Prime Minister to trigger Article 50 and begin negotiations with the remaining 27 countries to determine the terms of our departure from the European Union and the constructive new partnership we seek with them afterwards. What clarification can possibly be needed for a short two clause Bill which achieves such a simple but vital outcome? – Mark Harper MP on ConservativeHome

Brexit effects on FTSE500 companies are unimportant, whatever survey of business leaders says

We’ve a survey out today telling us all of the terrors which Brexit will inflict upon the British economy. Business leaders, defined as those with some position in the FTSE 500 companies, say that already the effects upon their businesses are negative. And the truth is that those reporting this survey have missed the one important point here. The FTSE 500 isn’t a measure of the British economy at all. Sure, these are all large businesses but they’re not, by any means, indicative of the domestic economy. Some of them don’t even trade at all in Britain. For what the FTSE 100, the FTSE 250 and even the 500 are are groupings of the largest companies that are listed in London, not the largest companies which do business in Britain. Tim Worstall for Forbes

Seema Malhotra MP: Why everyone should get a say in Brexit negotiations

Last week MPs voted to allow the Article 50 Bill a second reading and this week we begin Committee Stage. Over the next two days, around 200 proposed new clauses and amendments will be debated. The vote for article 50 last week was not a blank cheque. It must be for the House and the country to be consulted and for there to be a meaningful vote on the final deal. This Bill has been tightly written to limit the ability of MPs to amend it, but it is clear that the views of MPs will not be silenced. – Labour MP Seema Malhotra for the New Statesman

Brexit comment in brief

  • Haphazard amendments to the Article 50 Bill don’t help EU citizens in the UK – Christopher Howarth on ConservativeHome
  • Brexiteers are being driven mad by Brexit – Matthew Parris for the Spectator
  • Manuel Cortes – If Labour MPs can’t amend this Tory Brexit bill, they must vote against it – Guardian

Brexit news in brief

  • Despite Brexit fears more companies have been set up in Cornwall in 2016 than in previous years – Cornwall Live
  • Sinn Fein on ‘diplomatic offensive’ over Brexit deal for NI – Belfast Newsletter
  • Dutch MPs head to London to study impact of Brexit on Netherlands – Dutch News

And finally… Remain-backing TV Gardener Alan Titchmarsh says it’s time to get on with Brexit

“I did vote Remain but I have a lot of sympathy with Brexit. The mistake that Europe made was trying to homogenise everybody and make everybody alike on everything,” he said. “That’s what eventually got the backs up of the British people… You can’t suddenly homogenise 27 countries in the space of half a century when they’ve been ploughing their own furrow for thousands of years.” He said: “I’ve got to the stage now where we have to crack on and get on with it and make it work,” adding: “As long as it doesn’t make us insular and xenophobic, we can plough our own furrow.” – Yahoo News