#DespiteBrexit: The OECD raises its 2016 and 2017 growth forecasts pic.twitter.com/x7c10RA8dZ — BrexitCentral (@BrexitCentral) 28 November 2016 OECD revises UK growth forecasts up with economy due to outperform the eurozone over the next decade UK growth forecasts have been revised up by an influential think-tank in a fresh blow for Brexit doomsayers. The OECD expects the economy to expand by 2 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent next year – both 0.2 per cent higher than it suggested in September. It also predicts that UK plc will outperform the eurozone over the next decade, despite highlighting signs that growth is cooling. The estimates are the latest evidence that ‘Project Fear’ prophecies about the consequences of a Brexit vote are not coming to pass. The Treasury and many other respected bodies had suggested that we could go into recession in the immediate aftermath of a vote to cut ties with Brussels. – Daily Mail British firms plan to take on more workers as Brexit worries fade – Daily Telegraph Brexit vote has negligible impact on commercial mortgage market – FT Adviser Banks continue hiring graduates at the same pace as before the Brexit vote – Daily Mail Government surprises legal world by ratifying new EU patent system The UK will ratify plans to create a patent court spanning the European Union, despite the Brexit vote. The government has committed to an initiative that will protect inventions across the EU. Members of the single patent system must defer to EU law decided by the European Court of Justice. One important branch of the Unified Patent Court is set to be based in Aldgate Tower in the City. The division will decide on disputes in pharmaceuticals and life sciences. Given the Brexit vote, many intellectual property lawyers had predicted the UK would pull out of the initiative. – City A.M. Baroness Lucy Neville-Rolfe, intellectual property minister, said the decision to ratify “should not be seen as pre-empting the UK’s objectives or position” in Brexit negotiations. – FT (£) > Ashley Roughton on BrexitCentral on Sunday: Will the UK be excluded from the planned Europe-wide patent court? Does Tory MP’s aide’s memo reveal government thinking on Brexit deal? A Brexit memo which suggests that the UK wants to “have it cake and eat it” has sparked speculation over whether the Government had revealed details of its negotiating strategy for the first time. The note, which was carried by an aide to a Conservative party vice-chairman after a meeting in No 10, says it is “unlikely” that Britain will be given the chance to remain in the Single Market after it leaves the EU. – Daily Telegraph France is the biggest threat to a good Brexit deal because it wants to steal our key services industry, a leaked memo has revealed. The document also suggested the official tactic to be used by the UK in EU exit talks is “have cake and eat it”. And it told how Britain is seeking a deal dubbed “Canada Plus”, where the EU will offer up free trade in return for “a good deal on security”. An aide to Tory MP Mark Field revealed what appeared to be the government’s secret thinking by flashing notes made after his meeting with Brexit chiefs yesterday, snapped by a photographer. – The Sun Downing Street Brexit notes transcribed – Guido Fawkes Government plays down Brexit notes leak – BBC Brexit has its ‘quiet batpeople’ moment with memo leak – Karl McDonald for The i Official Remain camp refusing to back fresh Brexit legal challenge Campaigners from the EU referendum’s official Remain group have declined to back a fresh legal challenge to Brexit. A plan by a think tank to challenge the government over its right to withdraw the UK from the European Economic Area emerged late on Sunday. British Influence wrote to Brexit secretary David Davis to warn it would seek a judicial review, arguing that EEA membership could both keep the UK in the Single Market and support Theresa May’s desire for migration reform… The referendum’s official Remain camp, now rebranded as Open Britain, has refused to back the plan, warning it would rather convince the government of its arguments than pursue court battles. – City A.M. The latest Brexit legal challenge is just another delay which will damage our economy – John Longworth for The i Michael Howard accuses judges of making a ‘grab for power’ by involving themselves in Parliamentary decision-making Judges are making a “grab for power” by involving themselves in Parliamentary decision-making, Lord Howard has said, as he attacked a Supreme Court judge for giving a controversial speech about Article 50. The former Conservative leader said the bid for control comes at the expense of Parliament as he warned it would be “monstrous” for democracy if the press was not allowed to criticise the actions of judges. – Daily Telegraph Matthew Elliott blasts BoE Governor and plans to stay in single market The leader of the Vote Leave campaign has warned the Bank of England governor he will be “very foolish” if he tries to delay Brexit. Matthew Elliott turned on Mark Carney after the governor was reported to be working on a ‘secret plan’ for a transitional arrangement to keep Britain in the single market until 2021. He said any attempt to slam the brakes on Britain’s EU exit would “go down very badly” with the majority who voted for it, as it was revealed that Theresa May faces a second legal challenge. – The Independent Brexit plans to keep Britain in the single market are so ludicrous they should be “for the birds”, the head of Vote Leave has blasted.. – Daily Express > LISTEN via BrexitCentral’s YouTube channel: Matthew Elliott interviewed on BBC Radio Five Live last night Lord Mayor of London: City will survive Brexit The Brexit vote has shaken the City of London but will not destroy it despite creating uncertainty, the newly-installed Lord Mayor of the financial hub told AFP. Speaking at his offices opposite the Bank of England, Andrew Parmley spoke of his concerns about attracting high-skilled workers and how City firms will be able to do business in the European Union after Britain leaves. “Storms come around but we weather them every time,” 60-year-old Parmley, the City’s 689th Lord Mayor in eight centuries, said in an interview at his official residence Mansion House. – EurActiv Brexit will be tougher for UK than for eurozone, warns Draghi Mario Draghi has warned that Britain, rather than the eurozone, will “first and foremost” feel the pain of Brexit, as he called for clarity over the negotiation process that will govern the UK’s departure from the EU. The European Central Bank president, speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday, said that it was impossible to estimate the full economic impact of Brexit at this stage, but noted that the single market had been “a fundamental asset” for the UK. – FT (£) More backing for Brexit: Ikea ‘stands behind’ decision to leave EU UK boss Gillian Drakeford told the Press Association the retailer “stands behind” the country’s decision to quit the European Union, with plans for new stores still in the pipeline. She said: “We stand behind the decision that has been made and we believe there is a lot of opportunity in the UK. We’ve been evaluating our newest stores and formats and yes, absolutely, there will be more stores. We will continue to invest in the UK.” Ms Drakeford was speaking as Ikea UK’s full year results showed sales rose 8.9 per cent to £1.72 billion in the year ending August 31, its fifth consecutive year of sales growth. – Daily Express Most Brits expect economy to get worse but don’t regret voting for Brexit An exclusive poll for the Mirror reveals 43% believe the UK economy will get worse in the next 12 months and more than one-in-four are worried about their own financial situation. But the ComRes poll shows voters have not changed their minds about the vote to leave in June’s referendum. The survey of 2,035 adults found 92% of leave voters would do the same again, with just 3% saying they regretted their decision. And 95% of remain voters said they would still vote the same way, with just 4% saying they would now vote leave. Overall, 47% still back leave and 46% remain. – Daily Mirror Dominic Raab MP: These doom-mongering Brexit forecasts have serious holes – and reality is proving them wrong The Bank’s forecasters systematically exaggerate the negative effect of uncertainty on the UK’s economy, by measuring it using unreliable indicators. In particular, they give too much weight to “media references to uncertainty” and the “dispersion of growth forecasts”, neither of which correlate well with actual levels of activity. By stripping these two indicators out, BoE predictions of future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth become 0.5 per cent higher. That would turn the more pessimistic assumption of 1.4 per cent GDP growth for 2017 into a far more resilient 1.9 per cent growth. Clearly, that would then also have an impact on every other gloomy prediction we’ve heard – from government borrowing to wages. – Dominic Raab MP in the Daily Telegraph (£) Allister Heath: It’s time for the City to move on from the gloom It’s time for those City professionals still in denial to readjust and to make the most of the new order. The economy may well dip temporarily at some point, but there will be no Armageddon. The challenge of Brexit is now to get it right. It is time, therefore, for as many academic brains as possible to dedicate themselves to building the most successful post-Brexit economy possible. – Allister Heath for the Daily Telegraph (£) Richard Tice: Theresa May must show the Remain saboteurs who’s boss over Brexit It is vital that the Government reacts to these latest legal threats by pushing forward with the Brexit process as soon as possible. There must be no delay – we must trigger Article 50 and begin negotiating with the EU as soon as possible to ensure that Britain achieves independence by early 2019 at the latest – if not before. – Richard Tice in the Daily Telegraph Tim Worstall: The Remainers still don’t understand how free trade works Mr Clegg and his pals are complaining that only the export industries will be subject to EU rules – but that is exactly the point the Brexiteers have been making for a decade, that 90 per cent of the economy will be blissfully free of such regulations. Didn’t they notice what we were saying all that time? And when will they manage to find some outcome that we actually ought to worry about? – Tim Worstall for CapX Christopher Howarth: Do we really need a transitional agreement? There is no good reason to believe that negotiating a complex interim agreement would be easier than negotiating a final agreement. The UK and EU at present have exactly matching regulations and zero tariffs, there should, if they are able to at all, be little to negotiate an agreement in two years. If it is thought a little more time is needed, the more obvious solution would not be to launch into a new separate agreement but to extend the UK’s exit by a few months and therefore save the time wasted negotiating another agreement. – Christopher Howarth for ConservativeHome James Forsyth: Trump and Fillon mean that Britain matters far more to Eastern Europe By next summer, Britain could be the only one of the three major Western military powers unequivocally opposed to the idea of Russian domination of its near neighbours… It will change the dynamics of the Brexit talks. While Cabinet Ministers insist that Britain will never put security on the table in these talks, these countries are aware enough to realise that being part of an effort to ‘punish’ Britain for Brexit would change public attitudes here to the collective defence of Europe. – James Forsyth for The Spectator’s Coffee House Blog Brexit comment in brief Back to the 1950s or forward to 2050 – will Britain grasp its Brexit dividend? – Grant Shapps MP for the Huffington Post London will reinvent itself again post-Brexit if it remains flexible and open to the world – Tom Welsh for City A.M. London needs a new deal with its nation to secure a good Brexit for its leading industries – Bruce Dear for City A.M. Labour’s heartlands will turn to Ukip, and we will not fail them – Douglas Carswell MP for The Guardian A renewed Ukip has Labour in its sights – Daily Telegraph editorial May’s pre-Brexit expats plan nixed by Merkel – Paul Taylor for Politico Martin Schulz’s return to German politics will make Brexit more bitter – William Cook for The Spectator’s Coffee House Blog Britain can afford to be tough in its EU negotiations – Peter Hill for the Daily Express Eurostat data on immigrant integration provides counterweight to perceptions of UK ‘nativism’ – Alex Greer for OpenEurope The ethical argument for free trade – Dan Hannan for Reason (video) Could the Italian referendum bring down the euro? – Will Railton for City A.M. Italy needs reform and a euro exit is inevitable – Roger Bootle for the Daily Telegraph (£) Italy may need €40bn bail-out for its crumbling banks – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Daily Telegraph (£) Brexit news in brief Brexit Britain reaches out to Warsaw – Politico Norway to start a trade ‘dialogue’ with the U.K. next month – Bloomberg Theresa May backtracks on ‘sleepless Brexit nights’ comments – The Independent Paul Nuttall vows to make Ukip ‘voice of working people’ after winning leadership race – Daily Express Suzanne Evans ‘to take Ukip deputy chair and major policy roles’ in Paul Nuttall shake-up – PoliticsHome Nick Clegg defends ‘formidable’ Tony Blair in fight against Hard Brexit – Daily Mirror Labour donor John Mills tells MPs to ditch ‘unrealistic’ bid to keep Britain in EU’s Single Market – Daily Express Brexit could boost shipbuilding to make Britain a leading producer of ships for export, says Fallon – The Herald Brexit is unique chance for united Ireland, says Gerry Adams – Irish News Nicola Sturgeon declares Brexit could lead to Scottish Independence – Daily Record Plaid Cymru urges Welsh Government to do deal with Ireland to secure EU funds post-Brexit – The Guardian