Brexit News for Tuesday 22nd November

Brexit News for Tuesday 22nd November

Theresa May hints at transition deal on Brexit to avoid ‘cliff edge’ for business…

“Obviously, as we look at the negotiation we want to get the arrangement that is going to work best for the UK and the arrangement that is going to work best for business in the UK. And I’m conscious that there will be issues that will need to be looked at,” May told delegates [at the CBI conference] on Monday. She said she understood “people don’t want a cliff edge, they want to know with some certainty how things are going to go forward”…. Pressed later on whether May was signalling a transitional deal with the EU, the prime minister’s official spokeswoman suggested it was one option under consideration to guard against a sudden Brexit affecting businesses. – The Guardian

  • Full text of Theresa May’s speech to the CBI – PoliticsHome
  • ‘Ambitious’ Theresa May pledges to make Brexit Britain the land of ‘opportunity’ – Daily Express
  • Prime Minister Theresa May acknowledges Brexit business ‘uncertainty’ but says Government will not rush – The Herald
  • UK firms must reform to save faith in capitalism after Brexit vote Theresa May tells bosses – International Business Times

> WATCH: Theresa May on Brexit at the CBI Conference

…but is warned a transition Brexit deal will be ‘fiendishly difficult’ to achieve

The pound rose against the dollar after May’s speech, as the markets interpreted it as an indication that she aimed to put a transitional deal in place to minimise the possibility of a shock to the UK economy. But European politicians and experts warned any transitional deal would have to involved May accepting free movement of people, which would cause her political difficulty going into the 2020 general election. – The Guardian

  • Labour hits out at Brexit ‘shambles’ after Theresa May hints at transitional deal – PoliticsHome
  • What would a ‘transitional’ Brexit deal for the UK be? – The Independent
  • A ‘transitional’ Brexit would be messy and controversial – and very British – James Kirkup for the Daily Telegraph (£)

David Davis is establishing ‘positive’ links with Brexit negotiators in Europe…

Brexit Secretary David Davis has travelled to the continent in an effort to establish links with key players in the process of leaving the European Union. The Cabinet minister held talks in Brussels with the official leading the negotiations and will travel to Strasbourg for talks with senior MEPs on Tuesday. Mr Davis was using his visit to build bridges with the officials and politicians who will play a major role in the Brexit negotiations. – BT

…but definitely not doing any negotiating yet

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, made his first trip to Brussels yesterday to meet Michel Barnier, the EU’s lead negotiator, only to be told that there would no negotiations until [Britain invokes Article 50]….A government source said: “We agree negotiation can’t start before we notify. That wasn’t the purpose of the meeting — it was to lay the ground for a constructive relationship.” – The Times (£)

Richard Branson’s Virgin reportedly set to bankroll Blairite campaign to stop Brexit

An email seen by The Independent highlights the scale of backing the group has already secured. It shows the campaign has been months in the planning and claims “substantial progress” has already been made, including the identification of “an excellent potential CEO”. The memo was written by Alan Milburn, who was one of Tony Blair’s closest cabinet allies. It reveals the group has heavy financial, political and corporate backing and is receiving advice and support from a host of high-level business and communications organisations. High-profile MPs including former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Labour MP Chuka Umunna are believed to have had contact with the group, as have celebrities such as Bob Geldof. – The Independent

  • Tony Blair aims to fight resurgent populism with centre-ground campaign – The Guardian

Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan paints his vision for a post-Brexit UK

In a personal film for the Daily Politics’ soapbox series, he claims British people could enjoy lower, flatter, simpler taxes, cheaper energy, lighter regulation and more affordable house prices. – BBC

A ‘benign’ Brexit forecast from the IMF?

The IMF now says it’s working on a “benign” assumption for the UK economy which sees a “gradual reduction in uncertainty going forward”. The main reason for this seems to be that the financial markets — while shocked at first by Brexit — have since calmed down and any panic has been contained. – Channel 4 News

Tumbling pound is feeding through into rising exports

Exports of branded British food and non-alcoholic drinks shot up by nearly 14 per cent in the third quarter after the steep plunge in the pound since the vote to quit the European Union. The Food and Drink Federation said that its latest export figures represented the biggest quarterly export sales it had recorded and built on the second quarter, “which was in turn the largest [increase] up to that point”. – The Times (£)

  • How Brexit is boosting Britain’s gin industry – Metro
  • Sterling slump hits right note for guitar string maker – The Times (£)

‘Many ways’ Brexit may go to EU courts, says top ECJ judge

In an interview with Koen Lenaerts, Europe’s most senior judge, said that issues such as the treatment of Article 50, the legal path for a country to leave the bloc, “can be interpreted by our court like any other provision of union law”. Mr Lenaerts declined to comment on the specifics of Brexit but warned that there were myriad unforeseen legal consequences of sovereign exit from the union that the EU’s top court may be called on to resolve. – FT (£)

  • Whitehall can’t cope with legal nightmare of Brexit claim experts – The Times (£)
  • Former Whitehall mandarin critical of Fox’s new trade department – FT (£)

The favourite to be next French president wants Brexit to be fast, hard and uncompromising

Francois Fillon, the former French prime minister who is in a strong position to be elected president next year, believes Brexit must be “fast” and leave Britain without its crucial financial passport….The lawyer-turned-politician also believes that British officials should be excluded from having any say on decisions made in Brussels, while British MEPs should be barred from voting on legislation in EU Parliament, a move that would render their roles almost meaningless. – Business Insider

  • Fillon doesn’t seem to have the big problem with Brexit that other European leaders might – Andreas Whittam Smith for The Independent
  • Elections in France and Germany make it unlikely Europeans will go easy on Britain – Politico

Germany’s finance minister claims further UK cuts to corporation tax would be to indulge in “unfair tax competition”

London is still bound by European law and can’t lower corporation tax to attract investment, Germany’s finance minister warned on Monday, according to German magazine Der Spiegel… Currently set at 20 percent, corporation tax is already set to drop to 17 percent by 2020. In Germany, the rate is closer to 30 percent. “Britain is still a member of the European Union,” Wolfgang Schäuble said in response, stressing that the U.K. had pledged not to engage in unfair tax competition at the G20 meeting in Antalya in 2015, and that it would still be bound by that commitment, post-Brexit. – Politico

Denmark is going to ‘punish’ Britain when Brexit talks begin

“We’ll be rather selfish,” Denmark’s former foreign minister Martin Lidegaard said. “Brexit has changed it all. Instead of looking at the common benefit and pool our interest, we will get into a game where all of us look more selfish, more narrow-minded,” he said. The word currently coming from Copenhagen is that Denmark — a country where growing Euroscepticism is now a serious concern for the political establishment — will take a hard line when it comes to Brexit talks with Britain. – Business Insider

Polish president calls for EU to stop Brexit blackmail

Andrzej Duda’s comments indicating that Poland could prove itself one of Britain’s strongest allies in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations followed harsh criticism aimed last week at the UK by Italian and Dutch ministers. Some in the EU want to make sure Britain “pays a price” for voting to leave the bloc, amid fears that too good a deal will just encourage anti-Brussels sentiments in other countries. But Mr Duda warned that hostility could harm all sides. – Daily Express

EU would make Brexit deal ‘painful’ if Britain holds second referendum warns Peter Lilley MP

He said: “I think it would be very dangerous if we were to announce we were going to have a second referendum at the end of the process. That would give our European colleagues every incentive to make the deal the worst, most unsatisfactory, the most painful, even if it is painful to themselves in the hope of persuading the British people to change their minds. So, it would totally undermine the negotiating position, and that’s why Parliament always gives the Government a free hand in this sort of negotiation – to avoid undermining its negotiating position.” – Peter Liley MP quoted in the Daily Express

Putin wants Britain to use ‘common sense’ for fast but sober Brexit

[Russian President Vladimir Putin] said a successful Brexit would be down to how long the process of leaving the EU takes. He said: “With regard to Brexit, a lot will depend on the form of the UK exit, its speed. There are, of course, certain threats, but I think that all our colleagues will have enough common sense. There are very good specialists in the EU and the UK.” – Daily Express

Daniel Hannan MEP: Leavers won’t be bullied out of a Brexit by Remoaners or Eurocrats

Even now, a surprising number of Eurocrats still refuse to accept what has happened. Two thirds of the officials and MEPs I talk to in Brussels believe that the decision will somehow be reversed…Luckily, from a Leave point of view, most Eurocrats think that the best way to change British voters’ minds is through bullying. Hence the occasional talk we get about having to pay a price for leaving. It’s a serious misreading of our character: threats make us more resolute. The natural reaction to talk of being punished is to say: “If the EU needs to threaten countries to stop them from leaving, then it’s not a club at all, it’s a protection racket.” – Daniel Hannan MEP for International Business Times

Mark Littlewood: My three-point immigration plan that works for post-Brexit Britain

A post-Brexit immigration policy should wave in high earners, allow in lower earners with restricted rights and benefits and grant regional flexibility across the UK. Such an immigration policy might not be absolutely ideal, but it is certainly deliverable. And it could even be popular. – Mark Littlewood for The Times (£)

Telegraph: Brexit is a revolution that could enrich us all

Theresa May is the only Western leader who comes close to articulating this ascendant philosophy. She also leads the country that started the revolution. The world is realigning in a particular direction, and the British are ahead of everyone else. As the globe watches our Brexit experiment, it falls on us to resist protectionism and to make the case for popular capitalism – to show that greater liberty and wealth creation go hand-in-hand. – Daily Telegraph (£) editorial

Brexit comment in brief

  • This is how we will make Brexit work for Britain – and ‘retain strong links with our partners’ – Daniel Hannan MEP for The Sun
  • The future of Germany and France for the next few years is suddenly a lot clearer – and it could be very good news for Britain and Brexit. – David Mellor for LBC
  • What would leavers have done if we had lost? – Rupert Matthews for Campaign for an Independent Britain
  • Immigration? Blame the UK, not the EU – Richard Bird for the Huffington Post
  • Now is the time for EU and UK to work together – Charles Collis for EurActiv

Brexit news in brief

  • A Stronger In press release from the referendum campaign demonstrates they accepted that Brexit would mean leaving the single market – Guido Fawkes
  • Shock poll shows unstoppable populist surge – Daily Express
  • Aaron Banks plans to oust out of touch Remoaner MPs from Brexit areas – Daily Express
  • UKIP must repay 172,000 euros for Brexit surveys – EBL News
  • Free trade body sounded out by Salmond over special Europe deal – The Times (£)
  • Government begins scaling back UK civil service in EU – The Guardian
  • EU’s Juncker denies threat to quit – Reuters
  • Row breaks out over whether Donald Trump should address Parliament during state visit – Evening Standard
  • Future funding from the European Investment Bank? – House of Commons Library blog
  • European cities vow loyalty to the UK despite Brexit – EU Observer
  • And finally… Londoners are still forking out for boob jobs despite the Brexit vote – Evening Standard