Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Canadian PM Justin Trudeau promises ‘seamless’ trade deal with the UK Canada’s prime minister has handed Theresa May a Brexit boost by calling for a “seamless transition” to a new trading relationship with the UK. Justin Trudeau predicted a smooth process to carry over his country’s new trade agreement with the EU, which will eliminate 98 per cent of Canadian import duties. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) took seven years to negotiate – raising fears that the UK could take a long time to replace it after Brexit.But, speaking ahead of meeting with Ms May in Ottawa, Mr Trudeau forecast a “seamless transition” that would prevent the benefits of the deal being lost to Britain. – Independent Theresa May in Canada for post-Brexit trade talks – BBC 4 takeaways from Theresa May’s flying visit to Canada – Politico >WATCH on BrexitCentral’s Youtube: Theresa May and Justin Trudeau joint press conference Cabinet reportedly divided over how closely UK should be aligned to the single market… The Cabinet remains divided on one of the most fundamental Brexit questions. Everyone in the Cabinet does accept that Britain is leaving not just the EU but the single market too. But there remains a split over whether Britain should be aiming for an EEA minus deal with the EU or a CETA plus one. This might sound techy but it is fundamental to Britain’s future. Free movement makes it a political non-starter for Britain to stay in the single market. However, several of the most senior members of the Cabinet, backed by the institutional Treasury, think that Britain should stay as closely aligned to the single market as possible. – James Forsyth for The Spectator …as Hammond, Heywood and Robbins allegedly want ‘EEA Light’ Guido understands Boris went bonkers last week when he found out Theresa May was heading towards the EEA light option at her Florence speech. Senior Tory Brexiters say the EEA light model is being pushed by Philip Hammond and Remainer civil servants in the Treasury, the permanently frustrating Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood and Olly Robbins, the DExEU permanent secretary who it was announced this morning is off to Number 10. Dom Cummings, who Tim Shipman revealed yesterday was still in close contact with Boris and Gove, alleges David Davis is sympathetic to the EEA light option. – Guido Fawkes Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd ‘to team up to push Swiss-style soft Brexit’ – The Sun Beware of the EEA-light plan to keep us shackled to the EU – Christopher Howarth for ConservativeHome My government is driven from the front, says Theresa May in swipe at Boris Johnson… Theresa May refused to bow to Boris Johnson’s demand to divert EU funds to the NHS after Brexit as she insisted that she has not lost control of her cabinet. The prime minister said that her government was heading in the same direction despite a weekend challenge by her foreign secretary but was unable to say that cabinet members were in agreement over key elements of a deal. – The Times (£) Boris Johnson believes Brexit negotiations will fail and end up with Theresa May being humiliated – The Sun I could walk away, hints Boris – Mail Online Theresa May must clarify her own stand on Brexit – Telegraph editorial (£) As Tory splits go, this one’s nothing to get excited about – Paul T Horgan for ConservativeWoman May can use Johnson to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations – Andrew Gimson for ConservativeHome Theresa May must ignore the siren calls from Remoaners and support Boris Johnson – The Sun Editorial …as William Hague warns Tories to unite over May’s Brexit speech… Theresa May must use a landmark speech on Friday to unite the Cabinet around an agreed plan for Brexit or risk an irreversible split in the Conservative Party, Lord Hague has warned. The former party leader says senior ministers “lack co-ordination” 15 months on from the EU referendum and it is “high time” they settle on an agreed plan. Lord Hague says that if Mrs May’s landmark Brexit speech in Florence on Friday fails to unite the Cabinet, “Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister”. – Telegraph (£) There’s no point Tories arguing about who should be PM – at this rate it will be Jeremy Corbyn – William Hague for the Telegraph (£) Boris Johnson has reminded Britain why it was right to vote for Brexit. – John Redwood for the Telegraph (£) May is so weak that Boris was forced to lead – Rachel Sylvester for The Times (£) Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister? – Rupert Myers for City A.M. …and business and backbenchers ‘would support Prime Minister’ on divorce bill Theresa May will be backed by backbenchers and business if she broaches the issue of the Brexit divorce bill in a significant speech later this week. The Prime Minister, who is currently in Canada trying to secure a pre-Brexit agreement on future trading, will be in Florence later on Friday to deliver a critical intervention aimed at the leaders of the EU27. So far, Downing Street has been tight-lipped on what it will contain, beyond confirming May will “set out further policy”. – City A.M. Top Brexit civil servant to take up new role at No 10 Britain’s most senior Brexit official is to have his job split in half only a year after he took up the role. Oliver Robbins is to step down as permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu) to concentrate on his role as Theresa May’s chief EU “sherpa” and adviser to the prime minister on Europe. Senior government sources insisted that the move would allow Mr Robbins to concentrate full time on the Brexit negotiations. They added that his current role of running the Brexit department and preparing the UK for life outside the European Union would be taken by his deputy, Philip Rycroft.- The Times (£) David Davis left isolated after key Brexit official joins Theresa May – The Times (£) PM tightens grip on Brexit process with Whitehall re-shuffle – Express Oliver Robbins’ move creates as many problems as it solves – Oliver Wright for The Times (£) British manufacturing leapfrogs France in world ratings… The UK’s manufacturing industry moved up a spot in the global league table to become the eighth largest in the world, according to the latest available data. British manufacturing is now worth $249bn (£185bn) every year, according to United Nations data collected by the EEF, a manufacturers’ lobby group.The UK leapfrogged France in the ranking, with only Germany and Italy manufacturing more in 2015 among European countries.China remains the top manufacturer in the world, followed by the USA and Japan.- City A.M. …as Macron fails to convince a single business to move from London to Paris… France has failed to persuade a single business or bank to move its headquarters from London to Paris, despite pouring in money to make the capital more attractive to investors. The shock news comes amid a fight between European capitals in the hope that Brexit will force finance out of London… Despite these ambitions, France24 reported today that Paris has yet to convince a single business to relocate its headquarters across the Channel to La Defense, the French Wall Street. According to the report, the French capital is struggling to get big foreign banks and business on board. – Express …but Mark Carney remains pessimistic about Brexit impact on inflation Brexit has dealt Britain an economic blow and will drive up inflation, Mark Carney said as he signalled that interest rates will have to rise shortly. Delivering a substantial reassessment of the economy just over a year after the referendum, the governor of the Bank of England said the economy would not be able to grow as fast as in the past but that inflation would remain high due to the “de-integration” forces of Brexit. As a result, the UK would expand more slowly than other leading G7 economies for another year “until mid-2018”.- The Times (£) Impact of Brexit will be dependent on trade deals says Bank of England governor – City A.M. HSBC: ‘We were wrong’ to think the pound would stay weak in 2017 – BusinessInsider Top German economist says Brexit ‘will not be a catastrophe for the UK’ – Huffington Post DUP wanted tax cut to make Northern Ireland competitive… Arlene Foster was warned a year before the referendum that the economic difficulties Brexit could cause in Northern Ireland would cancel out any benefits from the region’s plan to lower its corporate tax rate. Northern Ireland has been seeking to drop its rate from 20 per cent to 12.5 per cent to make it more competitive with the Republic. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader and former first minister who campaigned for Brexit was told by her own advisers that a drop in GDP and foreign investment could negate any benefits of a new tax rate.- The Times (£) …but EU plan could erode Irish corporate tax revenue The European Commission and some of the largest EU member states are making no attempt to hide their efforts to change Irish tax policy, Michael McGrath has claimed. Discussing a new method of taxing foreign multinationals operating in the EU, the Fianna Fáil finance spokesman said that the commission and some member states were not trying to “conceal” their individual tax agendas. The finance ministers of France, Germany, Italy and Spain last week wrote to the European Commission calling for an “equalisation tax”. The plan could erode Irish corporate tax revenues as it would require technology companies to pay a levy based on their sales in each member state.- The Times (£) Lib Dem leader to warn of looming Brexit ‘disaster’ Sir Vince Cable will urge “sensible grown-ups” in other parties to join forces with the Liberal Democrats to prevent Brexit becoming a “disaster”. In his first leader’s speech, he will urge “political adults” in Labour and the Conservatives to put aside tribal loyalties to ensure the UK remains in the single market and customs union. He will defend his call for a further referendum on the outcome of EU talks. “We believe the public have a right to change their mind,” he will say. The 74-year old became leader this summer after Tim Farron’s resignation in the wake of June’s snap general election – in which the party failed to make the gains it had hoped for. – BBC Scottish and Welsh plans to amend Brexit bill to be outlined The Scottish government is to outline plans to amend the legislation taking the UK out of the European Union. The Scottish and Welsh governments call the EU withdrawal bill currently under consideration at Westminster a “power grab” of devolved responsibilities. They have worked together to draw up amendments as a direct challenge to the UK government’s legislation. UK ministers insist there is no “power grab” planned, and say the devolved parliaments will be enhanced by Brexit. – BBC No Brexit favours under new Merkel government, Britain warned The British government should not expect Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, break the current deadlock in the Brexit talks if she joins forces with the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) after this weekend’s election, a leading figure in the party has told The Telegraph. The warning came after David Davis, the Brexit secretary, predicted that Brexit talks would “accelerate” after the German election, with UK ministers privately hoping that a German coalition government with the FDP could lead to a more flexible approach from Berlin. – Telegraph (£) UK signs £2bn fighter jet deal with Qataris The UK has won its third export deal for the Typhoon fighter aircraft after signing a deal likely to be worth more than £2 billion with Qatar. The Gulf state agreed a potential order for 24 Typhoons to be assembled at BAE’s Warton site in Lancashire, providing a boost for the defence manufacturer and the UK’s attempts to win more export deals for the £80 million aircraft. At a signing ceremony in Doha, Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, said that the agreement followed several years of negotiations and marked the UK’s first big defence contract with Qatar.- The Times (£) Shanker Singham: If Theresa May gets her Florence speech wrong, Brexit could turn into a catastrophic failure On Friday, the Prime Minister will make a very important speech in Florence on Britain’s approach to Brexit. In her previous speech at Lancaster House, she set out an achievable vision to make Britain a global powerhouse. Importantly she did not take off the table any of the opportunities our newfound freedom would allow in order that this goal could be achieved. It is crucial as she sets out a new vision in Florence that no future opportunities are taken off the table. If we lose these, then Britain will find itself managing a steady decline in the coming years. – Shanker Singham for the Telegraph (£) Henry Newman: Johnson has got the Foreign Office back in Brexit business. And for that we should all be grateful Just when it looked as though there was broad agreement within the Cabinet and Conservative Party on Brexit policy, and attention was focused on what the Prime Minister ought to say in Friday’s coming speech in Florence, Boris Johnson made a startling intervention. In a 4000 word article, the Foreign Secretary laid out his vision for a “bold, thriving Britain”. It was above all a rejection (at least implicitly) of the way in which the Government has treated Brexit as a bomb that needs defusing, rather than as a mandate for change, and an opportunity to remake the nation for the better. – Henry Newman for ConservativeHome Tim Montgomerie: Don’t forget Nick Clegg’s contribution to delivering the Brexit vote His insistence on having a referendum in 2011 on changing the voting system gave Matthew Elliott, who ran the effort to keep first-past-the-post and became chief executive of Vote Leave, the opportunity to roadtest tactics. Elliott’s controversial claim that moving to AV would cost £250 million helped to stop it and the ploy’s success inspired the now notorious side-of-the-bus claim that Brexit could put £350 million extra a week into the NHS. Calculatedly stretching plausibility the pledge was constantly discussed and, consequently, the UK’s large and unpopular contribution to the EU budget was always near the front of voters’ minds. -Tim Montgomerie for the Evening Standard Jason Farrell: The origins of Vote Leave’s £350m for NHS Matthew Elliott later became chief executive of Vote Leave and, 18 months before the campaign, he and Cummings ran focus groups about EU membership. Taking back control and wasting money on the EU budget were hugely resonant issues raised by members of the public. In a 2014 report Cummings quotes a person saying that leaving the EU meant “we will save a fortune and we can spend that money on the NHS”. The slogan began to write itself. So then they just needed an amount. – Jason Farrell for Sky News Christian May: Time for the UK and EU to start talking about trade They say the Devil makes works for idle hands, and this certainly seems to be the case in British politics. One of the consequences of the EU’s refusal to discuss trade arrangements or the inevitable transition period is that Westminster is a frothing cauldron of competing Brexit opinions – and with the EU not listening, the voices in London are shouting over each other. Since Boris Johnson’s colourful, if somewhat incendiary, intervention over the weekend competing voices in Whitehall have grown from a rumble to a roar. – Christian May for City A.M. Brexit in brief Boris – the case for the defence – Iain Martin for Reaction Theresa May has only herself to blame for Boris butting in on Brexit – Michael Deacon for the Telegraph (£) Brexit must not be a race to the bottom – Gerard Lyons for CapX The facts behind the £350m per week EU membership claim – Telegraph (£) UK’s Brexit law does not include an exit date – Politico And finally… MEPs censor anti-EU cartoons from European Parliament exhibition Anti-EU cartoons about Brexit and the Greek crisis have been censored from an exhibition in the European Parliament by MEPs, sparking a row over free speech in Brussels. Catherine Bearder, the Liberal Democrats’ only MEP, blocked 12 of 28 cartoons by Greek and French cartoonists submitted for display in Brussels next week to mark the 60th anniversary years of the signing of the Treaty of Rome. Most of the cartoons criticise the EU and Germany’s handling of the Greek crisis. One showing EU leaders on a plane with Britain outside chopping off the wing also fell foul of the euro-censors. – Telegraph (£)