No deal planning must be the top priority and non-urgent business junked, Cabinet to be told today: Brexit News for Tuesday 18 December

No deal planning must be the top priority and non-urgent business junked, Cabinet to be told today: Brexit News for Tuesday 18 December

No deal planning must be the top priority and non-urgent business junked, Cabinet to be told today…

A no-deal Brexit is now a top priority for the Government and other non-essential business will be suspended, the Cabinet will be told on Tuesday. Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, will unveil plans to step up no-deal planning as Parliament remains locked the Prime Minister’s Brexit plans. Ministers will be told that a no-deal Brexit will now be considered a “default” option if Parliament is unable to sign off a deal. Government business which is not considered essential will be cancelled. The Cabinet will discuss how the £2billion committed to funding preparations for a no-deal Brexit should be spent. A Downing Street spokesman said: “What I have always said is the closer we get to March 29, the more decisions will have to be taken [so that] we are prepared for a no-deal scenario.” Separately the Government won agreement to remain in an arrangement to ensure that goods can move freely between the UK and EU after Brexit in the event of a no-deal. – Telegraph (£)

  • Cabinet to consider ramping up no-deal plans – BBC News
  • Theresa May will present three Brexit countdown options to cabinet – The Times (£)

…as Government gives Britain’s 6 million businesses 101 days to prepare for a No Deal Brexit…

The Cabinet will on Tuesday order Britain’s six million businesses to start immediate preparations for a No Deal Brexit, The Sun can reveal. The dramatic move will be signed off by Theresa May and her top table Tuesday morning. It is part of a significant ramping up of the PM’s threat to walk away from the EU without any agreement unless Brussels agrees to improve its terms. The powerful shift in tone is part of a new emergency package to be presented to the Cabinet today by Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay. A significant public stepping up in No Deal planning has been resisted by Mrs May and Mr Hammond for months — for fear of sparking a nationwide panic, as well as wasting billions on it. But with just 101 days to go until Brexit day on March 29, and still no deal in place, it emerged last night that Brexiteer ministers — aided by Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Treasury Chief Secretary Liz Truss — have persuaded the PM round. A Cabinet minister said last night: “We’re going to ramp up No Deal planning as much as possible. No Deal must look credible, and the EU must be made to understand we’re serious. I think Theresa finally gets that now.” – The Sun

…while Penny Mordaunt demands Theresa May ask EU for transition period to allow No Deal Brexit without destabilising economy…

Cabinet Brexiteer Penny Mordaunt broke ranks to demand Theresa May opens no deal Brexit talks with the EU now. In a clear challenge to the PM’s authority, the Development Secretary insisted the UK should ask Brussels for a stand alone transition period that would allow no deal to take place without damaging the economy. A “managed glidepath” of up to two years will mean any future trading relationship will be ok for businesses – including WTO terms – she will argue. Ms Mordaunt issued her demand ahead of a potentially explosive Cabinet meeting about the need for a Plan B if Mrs May deal falls in the Commons next month. Panic is growing among the PM’s most senior ministers over her insistence in pressing on with trying to win Commons support for her deal without making any back up plan. The Sun can also reveal that four of her most senior Cabinet ministers – Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Greg Clarke – asked to see Mrs May to try to persuade her to hold an ‘indicative vote’. The foursome held a meeting in No10 with the PM to push for non- binding vote in the Commons to discover if an alternative type of Brexit would win a majority. – The Sun

…but the European Commission will rule out ‘managed no deal Brexit’ in emergency plans

The European Commission will put forward measures to reduce the worst damage of a no deal Brexit when it publishes delayed contingency plans for Britain crashing out of the EU on Wednesday but will rule out any British hopes of a “managed no deal”. The strategy will, if backed, allow the EU will unilaterally declare the extension of agreements in selected sectors for between six to nine months to give its member countries time to strike bilateral agreements with Britain. The plans are likely to be seized upon by some Brexiteers as evidence that Brussels could accept a “managed no deal” but, according to the commission, no deal will mean an end to all Brexit negotiations with the UK. An EU official said, “The underlying principle is it has to be temporary to bridge a significant disruption. They will only remedy the most disruptive elements of Brexit in case of no deal.” Because the measures are unilateral they could be broken off at any time, an official said. “We’re not talking about engaging in parallel negotiation with no deal deals with the UK.” – Telegraph (£)

Theresa May sets mid-January date for vote on her Brexit deal…

Theresa May promised to give MPs a vote on her unpopular Brexit deal in the third week of January but immediately faced a showdown with Jeremy Corbyn after the Labour leader tabled a motion of no confidence in her leadership. The UK prime minister still hopes Brussels can offer “reassurances” to MPs over the terms of Britain’s exit deal before the crucial vote and that over the Christmas break some of her Eurosceptic critics will come to view it as the best deal on offer. Mrs May sought to buy time on Monday by declaring that she would hold the “meaningful vote” on her Brexit deal in the week starting January 14. Last week she postponed the vote after admitting she faced defeat by “a significant margin”. The exit deal with the EU is deeply unpopular with Leave and Remain supporters alike, with criticism focused on “backstop” measures that would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland. – FT (£)

  • Theresa May sets January date for MPs’ Brexit vote – BBC News
  • Labour pushes no confidence vote in Theresa May – Politico

…as she says there will no second referendum and no extension to Article 50…

Theresa May dug in her heels today and insisted there would not be a second referendum, a vote on her Brexit deal before Christmas or an extension to Article 50. The PM faces her fractious Cabinet today to discuss preparations for no deal amid deep splits over the way forward if and when her deal is defeated. The PM said she is still hoping to secure more ‘political and legal assurances’ from the EU on the Irish border backstop, and as a result the showdown in Parliament will not take place until the week commencing January 14. Appealing for MPs to get behind her plan, Mrs May said European counterparts had made clear ‘they do not want to use’ the insurance policy in the agreement. She also delivered a stinging rebuke to those calling for a second referendum, saying it would only lead to ‘disaster’. The defiant statement to the Commons comes as Mrs May wrestles to stop the Cabinet descending into chaos, with ministers openly floating alternatives to her Brexit plan.  Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd today risked directly contradicting the PM by insisting ‘nothing should be off the table’ if the government’s plan is rejected by the Commons. – Daily Mail

…and Brexiteers give PM three weeks to close her Brexit deal and pledge their support in event of Labour no-confidence vote in the Government

Tory Brexiteers yesterday gave Theresa May three more weeks to thrash out a deal with the EU in a shock Christmas truce. Eurosceptics gifted her a “period of tranquillity” over the New Year as she announced a new date of the week beginning January 14 for the Commons vote on her Brexit deal. It came as the PM dared Jeremy Corbyn to call a vote of confidence in her Government. If she lost, it could trigger a general election — but defeat is unlikely thanks to backing from the vast majority of her MPs and the DUP. Labour would then probably be forced to back a second referendum — which Mr Corbyn has so far refused to do. Yesterday he instead tabled a motion of no confidence in the PM personally over her refusal to allow MPs a “meaningful vote” this week. DUP Westminster leader Nigel Dodds told The Sun: “Now’s not the time to be playing parliamentary games.” No10 indicated the Government would not make space for the motion. It said there was no time for a debate on “party political games”. During the Brexit debate, Tory opponent Edward Leigh said he could still vote for Mrs May’s deal if she secures a meaningful concession from the EU on the Irish backstop. – The Sun

Theresa May agrees second EU referendum would make it ‘very hard’ to resist another Scottish independence vote

Theresa May has agreed that organising a second EU referendum would make it “very hard” to resist Nicola Sturgeon’s demands for another independence vote. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the prominent Brexiteer, argued in the Commons that allowing a “losers’ vote” on EU membership would make it difficult to avoid another ballot on Scottish separation. The Prime Minister said Mr Rees-Mogg, who led a failed attempt to oust her last week, was “absolutely right.” She said the UK Government has a track record of having accepted the decisions made by voters in the 2014 Scottish and 2016 EU referendums without calling for a rerun. The exchange raised eyebrows as Mr Rees-Mogg told Mrs May she has regained his backing after she won the vote of no confidence he helped organise last week. Her intervention was welcomed by Scottish nationalists on social media, who suggested it would give them the leverage they need if there is another EU referendum. – Telegraph (£)

The secret legal advice on extending Article 50 which ministers believe rules out second referendum

The Government has taken secret legal advice on extending Article 50 which it argues effectively rules out a second referendum, The Daily Telegraph can disclose. The advice states that Britain will be legally obliged to take part in European Parliament elections in May of next year if it extends Article 50 and subsequently send British MEPs to Brussels. It warns that there will be a “high risk of a successful legal challenge” if the UK refuses to take part in the elections because doing so will be breaching people’s rights as EU citizens. Ministers who have seen the advice argue that this means that July 2nd, the start of the next five-year session of the European Parliament, is a “hard” deadline for extending Article 50. They say it will take at least a year to complete preparations and hold a second vote, making it technically impossible to have another EU referendum. – Telegraph (£)

  • Unless UK leaves EU in March, Britain will elect new MEPs – Express

Leo Varadkar to set out plan for no-deal Brexit

The Irish government is planning to introduce up to 45 pieces of emergency legislation if a no-deal Brexit scenario unfolds. The plan comes as Theresa May last night challenged Jeremy Corbyn to call a full vote of confidence in her government after securing the backing of Conservative Brexiteers and the Democratic Unionist Party for her leadership. Leo Varadkar said new details of the coalition’s contingency measures for Ireland would be made clear later this week. Some emergency legislation measures will be required even if Mrs May can steer the Brexit withdrawal treaty through the House of Commons. Mrs May told MPs yesterday that she was still seeking “further political and legal assurances” on the backstop as she announced a vote on the document on January 14. She said negotiations with Brussels would continue into the New Year and claimed that despite being rebuffed at the EU summit last week, further compromise was still possible. – The Times (£)

UK signs air service deal with Switzerland for post-Brexit flights

British transport minister Chris Grayling will sign an agreement with Switzerland on Monday to ensure air services continue to operate between the two countries after Brexit. Britain is due to leave the European Union in March next year, but uncertainty over how, or even if, Brexit will happen has increased the possibility of the country exiting without a deal on departure terms – a scenario that some companies said would usher in chaos. “The UK aviation sector is the biggest in Europe and will play an even more crucial role as we further develop as an outward looking global nation,” Grayling said in a statement. “These agreements will ensure Britain continues to prosper as we leave the EU and I’m confident the UK will reach a mutually beneficial deal, whilst we continue to prepare for all eventualities.” His department said the new bilateral deal guaranteed the terms of the current EU-Switzerland agreement on air services, safeguarding the route that carried 6.8 million passengers by air in 2017. – Reuters

City grandees call for a second EU referendum to unblock Brexit logjam

Theresa May’s Brexit deal is “impossible to resuscitate” and she should back a second referendum to unblock the logjam in the House of Commons, dozens of former FTSE chairmen, chief executives and entrepreneurs have said. The group of 53 senior business figures urge Mrs May to “to take her deal to the British people” if she cannot persuade MPs to back it when they hold a meaningful vote to approve next month. The letter is signed by some of the most senior figures in the City including Sir Richard Sykes, the chairman of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Sir Mike Rake, a former chairman of BT , and Lord Myners, the former chairman of Marks & Spencer and ex-Labour minister. Other signatories include Michael Eavis, the Founder of the Glastonbury music festival, Alex Chesterman, the founder of property internet search engine Zoopla, Sir Andrew Large, the former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Arnaud Massenet, co-founder Net-a-Porter. – Telegraph (£)

Shanker Singham: The European Union has more to lose from a No Deal Brexit than a well-prepared UK

No Deal’s perils are greatly exaggerated — Project Fear writ large. Bank of England and Treasury analyses assume we will not change anything. But we should. And will. The one striking gap in the debate is any acknowledgement that we’re dealing with a journey to a destination as much as the destination itself. We need a strategy that we should have used from the start. That means aiming for the best deal by laying out the alternatives to the EU — and being ready to negotiate on this basis. We should also lay before it a framework for a trade deal and full text in due course. No Deal would be very bad for the EU. Its agricultural exporters could lose access to our markets overnight. So it is in their interests to play ball. In addition, the EU would not get much of our £39billion agreed exit payment. And mucking up the EU’s relationship with the City of London would hurt member states. – Shanker Singham for The Sun

Tim Stanley: Tony Blair is the perfect Remainer bogeyman to terrify MPs into backing the PM’s deal

I’m going to this year’s Christmas Party as Tony Blair: I’ll get on everyone’s nerves and then refuse to leave. Theresa May must’ve thanked her lucky stars when Mr Blair spoke out for a second referendum last week. He’s elite, he’s distrusted by Left and Right, he’s the perfect Remainer bogeyman, and he helps No 10 push its message that the only choices are Mrs May’s deal, no-deal or a second referendum. After all, what Brexiteer in their right mind would give Tony Blair what he wants? Best stick with Mrs May’s plan: avoid economic chaos, defy the Remainers and plough on with the great British backstop. Except that it’s a false choice. For a start, the phrase “no-deal” is a bit of a misnomer. There would be lots of little deals to avoid, say, problems in aviation, while any government worth its salt would spend the money now to ensure there aren’t any bottlenecks. Warnings of disaster are a self-fulfiling prophecy: if you say there’ll be queues at Dover and refuse to arrange alternative trade routes because you want to scare MPs straight then, duh, we’ll wind up with queues at Dover, which would be disastrous. – Tim Stanley for the Telegraph (£)

William Hague: Mrs May might be a lame duck, but she’s got more power than you think

“Lame Duck for Christmas!”, some of the headlines have announced mockingly over the last few days, after Theresa May said she does not plan to lead the Tories into a future election. Re-affirmed as party leader by a vote of confidence last week, but at the price of committing herself to a shortened tenure, she is instantly judged to have surrendered more of her authority. It is true that a leader who has signalled their own departure progressively loses the power to control events. There is less reason to fear someone who will soon depart, and power diminishes without some element of fear. Positioning for the succession by others becomes legitimised, and followers transfer their loyalties to likely future leaders. Yet Mrs May’s particular situation is more complicated than that, and in some ways recent events have increased her freedom of manoeuvre and ability to get her way, should she choose to make the most of it. A decision not to stand for election again can be liberating, freeing a Prime Minister who has a strong sense of the national interest to pursue it without inhibition. The failure of the attempt to topple her means she cannot be challenged again within her party for a full year. She has a brief but distinct moment in history to shape the future of party and country before she goes. – Lord Hague for the Telegraph (£)

Dominic Sandbrook: Why I, an avowed Remainer, believe a second referendum would poison politics for a generation

This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision… When the British people speak, their voice will be respected — not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’ The date was November 10, 2015, and those were the words of David Cameron, setting out his plans for the EU referendum he had promised in his election manifesto a few months earlier. You can hardly say he wasn’t clear. During the campaign that followed, both sides stuck to the same script. This was the moment of decision, a one-off showdown that would never be repeated. As the official leaflets sent to every home put it, ‘the Government will implement what you decide’. Three years on, however, those promises are beginning to look increasingly fragile.  In recent months a hysterical campaign for a so-called ‘People’s Vote’ has been gathering strength, with heavy promotion from the BBC, the Guardian and much of the pseudo-intellectual liberal elite. – Dominic Sandbrook for the Daily Mail

The Sun: Europhile Tories must stop arguing for a second referendum — it’s the demolition of democracy

The Tories are now the party of Brexit whether their Remainer MPs like it or not. If they don’t deliver it, they’re done for. So its diehard Europhiles need to stop contorting logic by arguing that a ­second referendum — before enacting the first — is “democratic”. It is a demolition of democracy. As for those instead backing “Norway Plus”, it’s an appalling idea: a Rem- ainers’ Brexit which effectively keeps us in the EU but without a voice or vote. In what possible way does staying in a permanent customs union and the ­single market, with no immigration control, satisfy the Leave mandate? It’s not a “compromise”. It’s a Remainer ruse. Except it’s worse than remaining. Norway Plus, aka “Remain Minus”, would destroy the Tories as surely as simply scrapping Brexit. It is far more likely to do so than any number of “no-confidence” stunts like the one Jeremy Corbyn has now pulled in his pathetic desperation for relevance. If Theresa May’s withdrawal deal fails — and Remainer Cabinet ministers would rather sacrifice Brexit than swallow a No Deal — they’ll just have to quit. It’s not much of a threat. We doubt voters will miss them. – The Sun says

Yorkshire Post: Theresa May’s credibility problem on second referendum pledge

The Prime Minister may have taken the opportunity in Parliament to strongly insist, once again, that she will never order a second Brexit referendum but politicians and the public can be forgiven for assessing her statement with a degree of cynicism. Theresa May also repeatedly said there would not be a snap General Election in 2017 – until she changed her mind – and claimed the Parliamentary vote on the withdrawal agreement she had struck with the European Union was set in stone to take place last Tuesday – until she changed her mind. However, the determination and clarity with which she set out the case for avoiding another poll puts her latest remarks into a different category. “Another vote would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy, that our democracy does not deliver,” she said. – Yorkshire Post editorial

Brexit in Brief

  • What happens next? The options if May’s deal fails – Daniel Hewitt for ITV News
  • A second referendum would destroy all trust in democracy – Leo McKinstry for the Express
  • A WTO exit Cabinet – John Redwood’s Diary
  • Demolishing five myths about Norway Plus – Nick Boles MP for ConservativeHome
  • Cabinet split over how many migrants to allow into Britain after Brexit has delayed the publication of plans on the policy until the New Year – Daily Mail