European Commission upgrades UK growth forecast as Brussels acknowledges UK ‘more resilient’ than predicted The European Commission has backtracked on its predictions the Brexit vote would cause immediate damage to the UK, admitting that Britain was on course for strong growth this year. Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s economics commissioner, said on Tuesday that Brussels “must acknowledge” that growth had been “more resilient than was anticipated in the autumn” as the European Commission substantially raised its 2017 forecasts. EU economists now expect the UK to grow by 1.5 per cent this year, an increase of a third compared with its projections in November. It also edged up its growth estimate for 2016 to 2 per cent — faster than the eurozone’s three biggest economies, Germany, France and Italy, last year… Brussels has been far from alone in overestimating the economic shock of Brexit, and is only the latest international body forced to climb down over its short-term forecasts for post-referendum growth. – FT (£) UK dealt aces and holding all the cards after calling Remain bluff on Brexit and we’re on track as strongest economy in Europe – Trevor Kavanagh for The Sun New study shows employers to be optimistic about post-Brexit hiring The poll, carried out by skills organisation City and Guilds, surveyed 500 senior decision-makers from large companies across a range of UK economic sectors, including construction, education and the financial industry. It found that 26% felt Brexit would not have any impact on their ability to find and hire competent employees, while more than two-fifths (42%) went further and said they expected it to have a positive effect on recruitment… Confidence was highest in London, with almost half of the capital’s employers predicting a positive impact on hiring post-Brexit. – Sky News Why there will be no Brexit cliff edge for EU employees in Britain – Andrew Green for ConservativeHome Border controls will not hurt business prospects – Daily Express editorial Leaked report claims British expats at risk of ‘Brexit backlash’ by bitter EU member states The document reportedly said: “The fact that it appears to be particularly difficult for foreign nationals, even if married to UK nationals or born in the UK, to acquire permanent residence status or British nationality may colour member states’ approach to this matter.”… The internal document drawn up by the European Parliament’s legal affairs committee is said to confirm the worries about an EU backlash, according to the Guardian… EU nationals claim that to obtain permanent residency they have to complete an 85-page form including P60s for five years, historical utility bills and a diary of all the occasions they have left the country since settling in the UK… Theresa May has said her offer to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK has been snubbed by “one or two” European leaders. – Daily Express Britons living in the EU face Brexit backlash, leaked paper warns – The Guardian Jeremy Corbyn blasts Government for ‘Hunger Games approach’ to EU nationals’ rights – PoliticsHome Citizens’ initiative launched calling for UK citizens to be issued with EU passports after Brexit – The Independent New European Parliament President says ‘The UK will always be a European country’… President of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani told Euractiv… that the United Kingdom will not be “an enemy” of the EU after Brexit… “It is important to work with London in order to plan our next stage of cooperation after Brexit, because the UK will not be an enemy of the EU. It will be a partner. The UK will always be a European country; however, not an EU country.” – EurActiv …as the Finnish foreign minister vows to fight for “a good deal” between the UK and Europe after talks with David Davis… Finland’s foreign minister has vowed to push for “a good deal” between the UK and the EU after talks with Brexit secretary David Davis. Davis met Timo Soini in Helsinki at the start of a two-day trip to the Nordic region, and Soini called for “constructive” talks with the UK. “We are hoping, of course all of us, to have a good, decent deal to be done with the UK and European Union, after this Brexit vote,” he said. – City A.M. …while Austria’s Chancellor says the UK must be worse off after Brexit The European Union must ensure the UK is in a worse situation when it leaves the bloc, otherwise it would represent a “capitulation”, Austria’s chancellor has said. “A member of a club must have better conditions than somebody who isn’t a member of this club – our British friends must be aware that nothing else can come out of these negotiations,” Christian Kern told reporters in Brussels on Monday. Everything else would be a capitulation by Europe.” – Darren McCaffrey for Sky News French Presidential candidate Macron says he will be “tough” on Britain in Brexit talks – Bloomberg WATCH: Emmanuel Macron’s interview with Channel 4 News Macron and Schulz would be bad news for May – James Blitz for the FT (£) EU row over revival of plans for two-speed EU A core group of European Union founding countries is to risk the fury of Visegrád member states as it forces the resurrection of a two-speed Europe back on to the Brussels agenda six decades after the treaty of Rome. Italy, which is hosting an EU summit next month marking the 60th anniversary of the founding pact, is increasingly confident that France and Germany will back the plan for a post-Brexit roadmap, despite bruising exchanges with central Europeans about the best way to respond to the challenge of populism. A two-speed Europe would allow a core of countries to press ahead with closer cooperation and integration on finance, tax and security, leaving a peripheral group to continue in a looser federation. – The Guardian Pressure grows on Speaker John Bercow over new EU vote comments After the Sunday Telegraph revealed Mr Bercow’s anti-Brexit comments at Reading University 10 days ago, Sky News has learned that Mr Bercow was much more outspoken in an earlier speech to students. On 27 October last year, while giving the Sir Bernard Crick Lecture at Sheffield University, the Speaker again declared his support for Remain and yet denounced any idea of a second referendum… on his own view on Brexit, he said: “I’ll probably get into trouble for saying this, but I didn’t vote for Brexit, OK… So that was my position and I have no apology for that. However, I am a democrat and I think that the idea of a second referendum… is absolutely for the birds.” – Sky News More than a dozen Cabinet ministers want John Bercow gone as Commons Speaker, critics claim – Daily Telegraph John Bercow supporters stage counterattack amid no-confidence plot – The Guardian Douglas Carswell MP: Don’t jeopardise Brexit by trying to unseat Bercow Parliament has some big Brexit battles ahead. We need to win them. So Brexiteer MPs should base everything they do in the Commons on a simple litmus test: does it benefit Brexit, or not? That’s my perspective on the latest effort to unseat the Speaker – and why I won’t support it. – Douglas Carswell MP on his blog Tom Harris: John Bercow can survive a coup attempt. But for the sake of his honour, he should agree to go The briefing by his office last week to the effect that he now wishes to remain in the chair until the 2020 election was unhelpful and positively damaging, given the unambiguous promises he made at the time of his election that he would step down no later than 2018… He should reaffirm that promise now and dismiss any notion of staying beyond June of next year, his ninth anniversary in the chair. Such a gesture would take the wind out of the sails of his detractors currently wrestling with the decision of whether or not to add their names to the motion now on the Order Paper. – Tom Harris for the Daily Telegraph (£) The next Speaker of the House must repair John Bercow’s damage by reasserting the importance of impartiality – William Hague for the Daily Telegraph (£) Myron Brilliant: Why transatlantic business relations can only get better A successful exit from the EU should be the first order of business for the UK, but down the road, the American business community will be eager for the opportunity to sustain and strengthen its close relationship with the UK. Negotiating a free trade agreement at an appropriate time could be a useful means to accomplish those objectives… As America roots for the success of both Britain and the EU, we do so with the hope that each will approach negotiations with a clear eye toward maintaining and strengthening our shared economic partnership. Our mutual prosperity depends on it. – Myron Brilliant, Executive Vice President and Head of International Affairs at the US Chambers of Commerce, for the Daily Telegraph (£) Matthew Lynn: Why Donald Trump is the catalyst that will put Greece on course to end its euro misery The Greek debt crisis rolls around every year with the regularity of the seasons… There is some grand-standing by the Greeks. A few wild predictions of immediate expulsion from the euro are bandied around. And then at the last minute a late-night deal is cobbled together in Brussels, a few billion euros get wired across to Athens, and the whole show is kept on the road for another year. And yet, this time around it could be different. Why? Because of Donald Trump… First, he could insist that the IMF does not participate in a fresh bail-out… Next, he could offer Greece financial assistance to get out… The Greeks might well be tempted to take that deal over the EU’s offer of endless decades of grinding austerity. – Matthew Lynn for the Daily Telegraph (£) European Commission says Trump’s policies top list of risks for EU economy – EUObserver Greek debt: down-at-heel Achilles adds to EU vulnerability – Gerald Warner for Reaction Greece is as sick as ever and its agony goes on and on – Tony Barber for the FT (£) Greek Tragedy, Act III: The flaws of the eurozone pile up further economic suffering for weaker members – The Times (£) leader Jonathan Ford: UK must wake up to risks of LSE/Deutsche Börse exchange deal Conceived at a time before the Brexit vote when the UK was still expected to stay safely tucked inside the single market, the deal was supposed to take advantage of a converging EU rule book by roping together Europe’s two most vibrant securities markets and the financial plumbing that serviced them — their clearing activities… Given the importance of finance to the post-Brexit economy, UK politicians have a strong interest in the deal not damaging London as a financial centre. Fortunately, they and the regulatory authorities also have an entrée. The Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority hold vetoes, and, additionally the government has the authority to determine the outcome in the wider public interest. Ministers need to think hard whether these are powers they should be using. – Jonathan Ford for the FT (£) Brexit in brief Ruth Davidson accuses SNP of trying to ‘weaponise’ Brexit vote – PoliticsHome A free-trading Britain can face down SNP plans for break-up – Ruth Davidson MSP for The Times (£) Kezia Dugdale MSP: Federal UK would fix ‘failure of politics’ – The Scotsman Unelected Lords blasted as ‘just like EU’ over Brexit threats – Daily Express Theresa May’s work is far from over on triggering Article 50 – Norman Tebbit for the Daily Telegraph (£) Theresa May’s Britain is starting to look like a safe haven – George Trefgarne for CapX Nexit could pop up in Dutch election campaign – Peter Teffer for EUObserver Archbishop of Canterbury suggests Brexit ‘in fascist tradition’ – The Guardian Environmental protections at risk after Brexit, say peers – PoliticsHome Irish Foreign Minister says human rights within Good Friday deal ‘must get Brexit protection’ – The Guardian Civil Service not ready to negotiate Brexit, claims former head Lord Kerslake – Sky News Gambia to rejoin the Commonwealth within months, Boris Johnson announces ahead of trip – Daily Telegraph UK’s last teddy bear maker boosted by Brexit – FT (£)