Brexit News for Thursday 2nd February

Brexit News for Thursday 2nd February

MPs overwhelmingly back Article 50 Bill…

In an historic vote, the House of Commons has voted overwhelmingly to give a Second Reading to the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill, which – once through all its parliamentary stages – will allow the Government to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. – BrexitCentral

MPs have voted by a majority of 384 to allow Prime Minister Theresa May to get Brexit negotiations under way. They backed the government’s European Union Bill, supported by the Labour leadership, by 498 votes to 114. But the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats opposed the bill, while 47 Labour MPs and Tory ex-chancellor Ken Clarke rebelled. – BBC

> Today on BrexitCentral: Full analysis of the vote showing how every MP voted

…as Corbyn faces Brexit reshuffle after 17 frontbenchers defy him…

Labour’s chaos over Brexit deepened after 17 frontbenchers defied Jeremy Corbyn’s orders and voted against legislation to trigger leaving the EU. The Labour leader is facing the prospect of his third reshuffle in 18 months after four shadow ministers quit before the vote and a further 13 front-bench members rebelled …There were suggestions that the 13 shadow ministers who voted against Brexit may avoid disciplinary action. – Daily Telegraph

  • Fifth of Labour MPs defy Corbyn over Brexit vote – The Guardian

…with the Government set to reveal its Brexit plan in White Paper today

Theresa May is to publish a detailed Brexit plan in a white paper after winning a huge majority for the Government’s Article 50 bill in the Commons. The white paper will flesh out the Prime Minister’s big Brexit speech at Lancaster House last month and contain ministers’ negotiating strategy for leaving the EU. – Sky News

May faces possible Tory revolt over EU citizen rights

Downing Street has been warned that a series of Tory rebellions are building before votes in the Commons next week on individual aspects of Brexit. Efforts were being made yesterday to reassure Conservative MPs that the 3.3 million EU citizens living in Britain would not be sacrificed in negotiations with the bloc. Further flashpoints in the legislation next week include the decision to take Britain out of the EU-wide nuclear treaty, which threatens research and future investment. Some Tories also want parliament to have an early say on the exit deal that Mrs May secures, giving enough time to force her back to the negotiating table if it is judged inadequate by MPs. – Times (£)

EU will lose out from bad Brexit deal on City, admits leaked Commission report

The European commission’s Brexit negotiators must strike a “workable” deal with Theresa May’s government to protect the City of London or the economies of the remaining member states will be damaged, a leaked EU report warns. The document – which has been seen by the Guardian – describes it as critical for the economic health of the remaining member states that the current financial eco-system is not hit in the coming Brexit negotiations.The paper, drawn up by officials working for the European parliament’s powerful committee on economic and monetary affairs (Econ), warns that UK-based financial services account for 40% of Europe’s assets under management and 60% of its capital markets business. “And UK-based banks provide more than £1.1tn of loans to the other EU member states,” the Econ secretariat’s paper notes. – The Guardian

US trade deal with the UK ‘could take place in the next two years’

A new trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom could be established in as little as two years, experts said on Wednesday. The testimony was part of a first hearing in the US congress dedicated to a new trans-Atlantic partnership following Britain’s exit from the European Union. Ted Poe, the chairman of the congressional foreign affairs committee heralded the “special relationship” between the two nations, calling a bilateral trade deal as an opportunity to “deepen our alliance even further”. – Daily Telegraph

  • US trade deal will exclude NHS, May and Fox pledge – FT (£) 

Liam Fox dismisses ‘absurd’ claim that UK will face £50 billion Brussels bill after Brexit

The European Union will demand a £50billion Brexit bill, a former ambassador to the EU has has said as the Government said that the demands are “absurd”. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s former man in Brussels, said that Brexit has exploded a “bomb” under the European Union’s budget and it will seek to claw back money from the UK. He said that negotiations with the European Union are likely to descend into “name-calling” and “fist fighting” before an agreement is reached. However Liam Fox, the Trade Secretary, branded the suggestion “absurd”. – Daily Telegraph

Brexit “exploded a bomb” under the EU Budget, warns Sir Ivan Rogers

European leaders believe Brexit “exploded a bomb” underneath the EU’s budget and they will “care passionately” about securing an exit bill of up to €60 billion from the U.K., the former British ambassador to the EU warned Wednesday. Sir Ivan Rogers, who resigned last month, criticizing “muddled thinking” in government, said the U.K.’s departure would create “immense” financial difficulties for the EU.- Politico

  • Sir Ivan Rogers thinks Britain will have a big Brexit divorce bill to pay. Here’s how we can sort it out – Tom Harris for the Daily Telegraph (£)

Bank of England set to upgrade growth forecast again

The Bank of England will upgrade its growth forecasts for the second time in three months this week as the economy continues to defy expectations of a post-Brexit vote slowdown. Liz Martins, an economist at HSBC, expects the Bank’s 2017 growth forecast to rise to 1.7pc, from 1.4pc in November and just 0.8pc in August. “Compared to the Bank’s initial post-referendum [forecast], this is a decidedly more upbeat picture,” she said. The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its growth forecast for 2018 at 1.5pc, with 1.6pc for 2019. Economists expect inflation to rise well above 2pc this year as the fall in the pound’s value pushes up import prices and consumer costs. –Daily Telegraph

Brexit no deterrent for lego as toymaker expands its London base

The maker of toy plastic bricks, which has had employees in its main London office since 2014, now has 275 people working for it in the city. The expansion will be at Plough Place, close to Lego’s office at New Fetter Lane, and will span two floors. The announcement comes as Britain navigates the legal hurdles on its path toward a full divorce from the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May is pushing for a so-called hard Brexit, entailing a departure from the single market. The U.K.’s highest court has ruled that parliament will have a say in the process. – Bloomberg

Brexit will not lead to a ‘new London’ in Europe, says Irish central bank head

The head of the Irish central bank said on Tuesday that there will not be a “new London” in the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc… Cities around Europe are already vying for the potential new business, including financial centres in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Ireland. “There is not going to be any new London in the EU 27. History happened in a certain way. You can’t just lift institutions and drop then somewhere else,” Mr Lane said at an event hosted by the London Irish business society in London. – The Independent

Emma Reynolds to chair new Labour backbench Brexit Committee

Labour backbenchers have won a voice on Brexit with the creation of a key PLP body. The committee will be able to make policy proposals to Jeremy Corbyn and can ask to be consulted by shadow cabinet ministers on major issues relating to Britain’s departure from the EU. Emma Reynolds, who campaigned for Remain last year, has been named as the chair of the new PLP backbench committee on Brexit. – LabourList

Tom Goodenough: Sir Ivan Rogers paints a more optimistic picture of Brexit

But for the flashes of exaggeration, there was also something on display that was curiously lacking from his resignation letter: optimism about Brexit. He stopped short of saying whether he ‘liked Brexit’. Rogers did, though, make it clear that leaving the EU presents an opportunity to Britain: ‘I think if we get it right, the country comes out of…the other side prosperous and healthy and maybe even, indeed, happier on sovereignty’. Perhaps without meaning to – as Richard Drax pointed out – Rogers also painted a compelling argument for why Britain should leave the EU in the first place. – Tom Goodenough for The Spectator

Sabine Eberenz: Only a clean break for Britain from the EU will suffice

On trade, access to each other’s markets should follow World Trade Organisation rules and an agreement should be in place as soon as possible. All passporting rights should cease to exist too. The approach of slicing and dicing the single market into sectors for the purpose of defining individual access arrangements is not worth the effort. British, European and non-European businesses should feel confident enough that they can look forward and adapt to new economic realities. The UK and the EU should be free to concentrate on domestic as well as international challenges, such as the negotiation of new free-trade deals. – FT (£)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Trump is right: Germany is running an illegal currency racket

The implicit Deutsche Mark is indeed “grossly undervalued” The warped mechanism of monetary union allows Germany to lock in a permanent ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ trade advantage over Southern Europe, inflicting mass unemployment on the victim countries and blighting their futures. Whatever you think of Peter Navarro’s trade philosophy, he is right that Germany’s chronic, huge, and illegal current account surplus – 8.8pc of GDP – saps global demand and seriously distorts the world economy… EU law is clear, or should be. Persistent surpluses (three years in a row) above 6pc of GDP are illegal. Germany is not even close to compliance, and the picture has been getting worse, not better. This violation is a much bigger threat to the long-term viability of monetary union than the trivial budget infringements by minnow states – so fiercely condemned by the European Commission. – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Daily Telegraph (£)

Iain Martin: Look at the rickety EU and be glad we’re out

Right from the beginning, the efforts to get the UK into what was then the EEC were predicated in part on the notion that poor old Britain had had it. After the draining effort of the Second World War, a bomb-blackened and virtually bankrupt Britain, its empire evaporating, needed to accept the new reality. The wealthier parts of the continent had superior industry, transport, food and weather. Europe was going to be the future… – Iain Martin for The Times (£)

MPs risk missing their last chance to shape Theresa May’s Brexit deal

After countless briefings, two Prime Ministerial speeches on Brexit, a court case and an appeal, MPs got the chance to debate Article 50.Was it worth it? That the bulk of the Labour party will vote to trigger Article 50 means that the sting has been taken out of the debate somewhat, which is probably one reason why most of the speakers confined themselves to refighting the referendum. – Staggers Blog

Brexit comment in brief

  • By backing Brexit Labour is writing Tories a blank cheque – Frederick Cowell for Labour Uncut
  • There are big choices ahead on immigration – we need a national conversation about what to do – Sunder Katwala for ConservativeHome

Brexit news in brief

  • Tim Farron shouted down by Tory MPs over Brexit debate no-show – Huffington Post
  • Northern Ireland Secretary rules out a special Brexit status for Northern Ireland – NI Newsletter
  • Skills everyone should have on their CV after Brexit – Business Insider
  • European Court of Justice set to meddle in Brexit plans – Daily Express
  • Peter Mandelson given top French honour for Brexit stance – Daily Mail