Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Theresa May reassures MPs over Brexit vote timing after David Davis suggests it may be after Brexit Theresa May has said she is confident there will be enough time for MPs to get a Brexit vote before the UK leaves. During Prime Minister’s Questions, she was pressed on comments by David Davis who earlier said a vote might not happen before the March 2019 deadline. He said the vote’s timing hinged on when a deal was done and this may be at the “59th minute of the 11th hour”. But Mrs May said she believed it would happen “in time for Parliament to have the vote we committed to”… But former Conservative chancellor Ken Clarke said he was not concerned about there being a vote before Brexit as the UK would leave anyway under the terms of the Article 50 process, which he voted against. – BBC News Mr Davis subsequently issued a statement clarifying that he “expects and intends” for there to be a vote in Parliament before Britain leaves the European Union… The row erupted after Mr Davis suggested that the EU may delay coming to a deal until the “last moment”… Pressed on whether that meant a vote in Parliament on the deal could be after March 2019, he replied: “It could be, yes, it could be.” …Mr Davis also warned that the UK must retain the option of leaving the EU without a deal until the last moment or Brussels will “think they have got you over a barrel”. – Telegraph David Davis is stating the obvious on the timing of a Brexit deal vote – Tom Goodenough for the Spectator David Davis shouldn’t let Remainers dictate how he negotiates Brexit – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£) Davis says a ‘hostile’ no-deal Brexit could mean UK not paying Brexit bill A hostile no-deal Brexit in which the U.K. leaves the EU without any agreement at all is “off the probability scale,” Brexit Secretary David Davis told MPs, but if such a scenario did occur he could “imagine” the U.K. not honoring any financial commitment to the bloc… “There’s a no deal where we go to WTO arrangements but we have a barebones deal on other elements…aviation, data, nuclear maybe and so on,” he said. “And then there is a complete failure to agree, hostile. Now I think that is so incredible it is actually off the probability scale. In those circumstances, it is conceivable there would be no deal of any sort.” – Politico Why a ‘no-deal’ Brexit doesn’t always mean there’s no deal – Bloomberg The EU cannot afford to punish Britain for Brexit – James Holland for CapX Brexit transition period likely to be limited to 20 months, EU officials say… Senior EU officials believe the most likely outcome will involve any withdrawal agreement stipulating 31 December 2020 as the date when the country leaves the bloc’s legal structures. No decisions have been made and the EU’s 27 remaining member states are yet to formally discuss the terms of a transition period, something they only agreed to do at the end of the last European council summit on Friday. Earlier this week the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, also appeared to suggest that such a schedule would suit the bloc. He told a group of European newspapers: “To my mind, it makes sense that it covers the financial period, so until 2020.” …Most of the terms of a transition period are not expected to be disputed. But the EU is expecting the British government to argue against the bloc’s condition that access to the single market must be reciprocated by allowing European fishermen to have continued access to British waters. – Guardian …as Davis says UK expects to strike post-Brexit transition deal by early 2018 David Davis told MPs on Wednesday that he expects Britain and the EU to agree early next year on terms of the transition period that will follow Britain’s formal separation from the bloc, offering a more optimistic view than his EU counterpart… Mr Davis said during the transition, the relationship with the EU should be “very close to existing circumstances.” He expects, for instance, that banks in the UK will retain their “passporting” ability to do business in the EU during the transition. He expects negotiations over the transition will not last long. – FT (£) Banks likely to keep EU access during transition, UK says – Bloomberg Economic growth beats expectations in Q3 2017, with interest rate rise now expected next month British consumers have been put on notice for an interest rate rise next week, as official figures show the economy expanding faster than expected in the three months to September. GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017 following expansion of 0.3% in the three months to June, according to the Office for National Statistics. City economists had forecast growth of 0.3%. The official figures come as the Bank of England prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade, with the monetary policy committee likely to take them into account ahead of its decision on 2 November. – Guardian Brexit joy at GDP boost thanks to manufacturing surge – Express Fears over student ‘Brexodus’ misguided, new UCAS figures suggest amid surge in Oxbridge applications Oxbridge fears about a student “Brexodus” are misguided, Ucas figures suggest, as analysis shows record numbers of students have applied to study at the universities next year… While several academics have claimed that Brexit would be a “disaster” and deter European students from applying, in fact, the number applying from within the EU has increased by six percent… The release is likely to embarrass Cambridge University in particular, which warned last year that it was preparing for admissions of EU students to fall by two-thirds after Brexit… Dr Christopher Bickerton, a Cambridge lecturer in European politics, claimed that the figures were evidence that “wild figures thrown around” during the referendum were unravelling. – Telegraph Oxbridge and medical science applications rise by 7%, confounding concerns student debt and Brexit would deter students – FT (£) Remainer universities: anti-Brexit bias laid bare – Daily Mail Tory MP slams lecturer for giving pro-EU leaflet to daughter studying engineering as uni Brexit row rumbles on – The Sun The patronising, elitist hysteria of universities over being asked about Brexit will harden the views of millions who voted for it – Stephen Glover for the Daily Mail Donald Tusk wants EU army this year ‘to defend borders from migrants and hostile states’ Critics have repeatedly warned that the new [PESCO] system is a gateway to the creation of an EU army, although Brussels itself denies this and says it is just facilitating better military cooperation… British ministers, including Boris Johnson and Michael Fallon, have been signing up to the EU’s military plans on the basis that they will lay down a loose marker for post-Brexit security cooperation. However, the EU sees the commitments as legally binding, and respected military commander Major-General Julian Thompson has previously warned it will not be easy for the UK to “extricate” itself in the future. He told express.co.uk: “The UK believes it is approving military structures for the other 27, but the EU is completely clear that agreements, unfortunately, apply to the UK as full participants.” – Express Free rail tickets for EU citizens on their 18th birthday: MEPs hail ‘first step’ towards annual €1.5 billion giveaway The £10.7 million pilot project will see 20,000 freebies handed out to youngsters on their birthday in the interests of building a sense of “European identity”, in a project that Conservative MEPs have said is a waste of taxpayers’ money… The idea was welcomed at first by the European Commission but was scaled back in the face of opposition from critics who branded it a colossal waste of money and said it would only benefit middle class children who could afford the travel pass anyway… Syed Kamall, the UK’s most senior Tory MEP, said: “If you are a young person you want the opportunity to get a job or at least an apprenticeship. You need the right economic conditions to allow businesses to make jobs for which you can apply. You dream of being able to build a better future for yourself, your family and for your community. But what does this parliament offer? A free Interrail pass.” – Telegraph Charlie Elphicke: Deal or no deal, Britain must be ready on day one of Brexit to forge ahead It is in the national interest to be ready one day one. There are three key reasons: First, insurance. You buy house insurance before you are burgled. In the same way we should insure against the risks of error in the current brinkmanship by making sure we are ready on day one. Second, to get the best deal. Any experienced negotiator will tell you that if you want a deal, prepare first for no deal. If you can walk away you get a better price and better terms. Third, this is no regrets spending. Our customs computers are creaking, the border systems are ageing and our roads are far from resilient. In other words, this is investment we need anyway… It would be wrong to wait until the last moment to start investing. It is in the national interest that we invest now. At least £1 billion should be set aside in the November Budget to invest in upgrading our systems and infrastructure so that we will be ready on day one to forge ahead on day two. – Charlie Elphicke MP for the Telegraph (£) Charlie Elphicke: “We should insure against the risk of error” Full text of Commons speech on Brexit contingency – ConservativeHome HMRC boss says £450m of investment needed to prepare customs for ‘no deal’ Brexit – Sky News Tom McTague & David M. Herszenhorn: Juncker’s ‘monster’ haunts Britain British negotiators are increasingly concerned that Brexit divorce talks are caught in an internal EU power struggle that has little to do with the U.K.’s impending exit and everything to do with who continues to wield power in Brussels after Jean-Claude Juncker’s term as Commission president ends in 2019. Selmayr, Juncker’s powerful chief of staff, looms large. In the minds of British officials, his fingerprints — real or imagined — can be seen on every leak or rumor emanating from Brussels… One U.K. official said Barnier was constantly undermined by Selmayr in a bid to ensure Juncker remained fully in charge of the talks… Earlier this year there was mounting suspicion among officials about Selmayr’s alleged role in sabotaging agreements that [Olly] Robbins thought he had struck with his opposite number at the Commission, Sabine Weyand, who is Barnier’s deputy… On two occasions Robbins thought he had a verbal agreement with Weyand only for the Commission to backtrack after the U.K. had made an announcement, two officials said. – Tom McTague & David M. Herszenhorn for Politico Nick Timothy: EU states are angry at Juncker’s right-hand man for trying to wreck Brexit talks. But they still need to tell us what they want We also know that, increasingly – and far more quietly on the continent than here at home – businesses and politicians are putting pressure on their governments to ensure there is a deal that allows trade to continue… This is why the EU’s national governments were angry when a German newspaper was briefed about Theresa May’s private conversation with Jean-Claude Juncker over dinner last week. The briefing, apparently from European Commission sources, was inaccurate, highly personal and designed to rupture trust. The finger was pointed at Martin Selmayr, Juncker’s chief of staff, a self-styled hard man and federalist zealot. But the displeasure directed at Selmayr has not only come from member states: Michel Barnier, responsible for negotiating on behalf of the Commission, despises him and believes he is trying to wreck the chances of Britain and the EU reaching a sensible agreement. – Nick Timothy for the Telegraph (£) Telegraph: Time to call off the Brexit Inquisition The vote has been held and we are leaving… It is incumbent, therefore, upon everyone who cares about the future of the country to stop arguing over procedures and focus on what is needed to make a success of leaving the EU. It may be true that most university dons are Remainers, but they lost the argument. They would serve their students far better if they turned their minds to mapping out Britain’s post-EU future, instead of telling them how they think the decision was wrong. The same goes for parliamentarians. With time running out, they need to spend more time discussing how Britain will look 10 or 20 years from now, rather than refighting the referendum. It is time to move on. – Telegraph editorial Brian Monteith: Britain must scale the EU cliffs to a freer, more prosperous future As is so often the case, those that blurt out the cliche that Brexit without a transitionary-based deal will see UK businesses fall off a cliff edge are looking at the problem the wrong way round… We are at the foot of the cliff already, being dashed on the rocks by absurd regulations, restrictive practices, and high taxes we do not need to pay… Malthusians run the EU, believing we must restrict markets to ration trade. They exclude whole continents from benefitting by adding value to their cocoa or coffee, which they instead have to sell at rock-bottom prices for processing beyond the EU’s castellated fortifications of tariffs, quotas and regulations. You can tell that the sentiments of the CBI, IoD and other so-called business leaders lie with the interests of the EU’s 27 members and align with those who wish to protect existing markets from open competition, rather than help UK businesses expand – for they continually look through the telescope from the wrong end. – Brian Monteith for City A.M. Brexit comment in brief Michael Bloomberg will learn that Brexit is the single smartest thing Britain has done in years – Nigel Farage for the Telegraph (£) Brexit will help save weekly bin collections – Harry Phibbs for ConservativeHome A Brexit to please nobody – Allan Massie for Reaction The tension over Catalonia is a wholly avoidable tragedy for Spain – Daniel Hannan for ConservativeHome Brexit news in brief Jacob Rees-Mogg says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney ‘is an enemy of Brexit’ – Telegraph Expect an EU-UK trade row in 2018, ex-ambassador warns MPs – Telegraph UK ‘screwed’ in Brexit negotiations by triggering Article 50 too soon, says ex-ambassador – Politico Article 50 blunder ‘screwed’ Britain, says ex-ambassador Ivan Rogers – The Times (£) Gloves off in fight for German finance ministry – Politico Meet the new Dutch government’s major players – Politico