Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Top Trade expert warns we can’t ‘harden’ Brexit later if we agree to Chequers… A leading trade expert has attacked the idea that the government can ‘harden up’ Brexit if it sticks with the Prime Minister’s Chequers plan. Speaking to BrexitCentral, Shanker Singham said it would be “incredibly difficult” to change the rules “once you’re locked into an arrangement with the EU”. Singham, who heads up the International Trade Unit at the IEA, criticised Chequers for taking the UK’s independent trade policy “off the table” which would prevent the UK from seeing any of the benefits of Brexit. “Some people have suggested we can be in the EEA…. and then sort of seek to diverge if we want to at that stage, “It’s very difficult once you’re locked into an arrangement with the EU, it’s incredibly difficult to change it.” –BrexitCentral …as Brexiteers work on their own alternative blueprint for Brexit… Conservative Brexiteers plan to challenge Theresa May directly by publishing their own “positive” blueprint for Brexit. Work has begun on a policy paper, due to be published next month, outlining the advantages to Britain of leaving the European Union on World Trade Organisation terms. It is expected to have the backing of 60 to 80 Conservative MPs, increasing the pressure on the prime minister before the party conference in Birmingham. Although the paper is still being developed it is understood to allow for a possible Canadian-style free trade agreement, but only if the EU backs down on demands over the Irish border. If the EU refuses, the paper will say, Britain could thrive by relying on WTO mechanisms. – The Times (£) Tory Brexiteers set to unveil new Brexit plan next month as they prepare to ambush Theresa May- The Sun …and Boris Johnson prepares to make a comeback speech at a fringe event for next month’s Tory Party conference Boris Johnson will make his comeback at Tory party conference next month – just as Brexit negotiations reach their climax. The former Foreign Secretary has agreed to give a keynote speech at a fringe event during the four-day gathering in Birmingham, the Daily Mail has learnt. His decision to speak comes after party chiefs last week launched disciplinary proceedings against him over his comments on the burka.The intervention will prove a nightmare for Theresa May as she attempts to unite the party faithful around her Chequers plan. – Daily Mail Boris Johnson to push pro-Brexit agenda from Tory conference sidelines after blasting PM’s ‘Chequers plan’ – The Sun Boris Johnson plans to torment Theresa May’s Brexit plans at Conservative party conference – Business Insider ‘Trust me to deliver Brexit’ – Boris Johnson to push pro-Brexit agenda at Tory conference – Express EU rebuffs the idea of bringing talks forward to September… European officials have poured cold water on hopes that Theresa May could negotiate Brexit with other EU leaders in September to break the deadlock over Britain’s departure. Diplomatic sources have rejected suggestions that May could hold direct talks on Brexit with the 27 other EU heads of state and government at a summit in Salzburg next month. “That is completely ridiculous, that is complete overspin of Salzburg,” one senior source told the Guardian. “It would mean that we would ditch our negotiating approach of the last two years and discuss at 28 instead of 27 to one, and I don’t see why this would happen.” – Guardian …and fears its Brexit talks are being bugged by British secret agents The European Union’s Brexit negotiators fear that they are being bugged by the British secret service after the UK obtained sensitive documents “within hours” of them being presented to a meeting of EU officials last month, The Telegraph understands. A highly placed EU source revealed the security concerns as British negotiators were set to return to Brussels on Thursday to resume Brexit talks. The two sides remain far apart on the key issues of customs arrangements and Ireland, with Latvia’s foreign minister warning on Wednesday that the risk of a ‘no deal’ outcome was now “50-50”. The EU bugging fears were raised at a meeting in the European Council on July 13 by a top member of Michel Barnier’s Brexit negotiating team, according to the source. Sabine Weyand told EU officials attending the meeting of the European Council’s Article 50 Working Party that “it could not be excluded” that British intelligence had penetrated their meetings, the source said. – Telegraph (£) Irish border backstop on Brexit talks agenda in Brussels The latest round of Brexit negotiations is due to get under way in Brussels today. The two days of talks will be led by officials, rather than by the UK and EU chief negotiators Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier. Today, the two sides will discuss issues surrounding the Irish border, including how to achieve an agreed ‘backstop’ to prevent a hard border. Tomorrow, the talks will focus on the UK’s future customs and trade relationships with the EU. Last month, Mr Barnier rejected key elements of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest trade proposals.- RTE Details of EU meeting that blew away May’s Brexit plan were suppressed before crucial Chequers summitThe European Commission briefing given to top EU Brexit officials on July 5 this year was political dynamite, driving a coach and horses through a fundamental part of Britain’s expected negotiating strategy.Delivered by Michel Barnier’s top economic adviser on the eve of the crunch Chequers summit, the European Commission laid out what it saw as the hard economic arguments against allowing the UK to remain in the EU single market for goods only.Citing detailed examples from cars to chemicals, sources briefed on the meeting say that Stephanie Riso explained why European Commission economists believed accepting the British plan would do real damage to the EU single market…According to the source, Ms Riso concluded that the slides would be sent around to EU member states and then published the next day – July 6, the day of the Chequers meeting. But they were never published after an intervention at the “highest level” by the British side. – Telegraph (£) Brussels kept White Paper demolition documents top secret to save May – Express Number of EU migrants working in UK falls by record 86,000 The number of EU migrants working in the UK has fallen by 86,000 to 2.28million over the past year, the biggest drop since records began. Economists suggested that a combination of Brexit and the strength of the Polish economy has made the UK a significantly less attractive destination for EU migrants. Official figures revealed a huge decline in the number of people from the eight Eastern European nations that joined the EU in 2004, including Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. The Office for National Statistics said that in the year to June the number of migrants from these countries working in the UK fell by 117,000 to 880,000. – Telegraph (£) Staggering 330,000 more Brits are in work than a year ago – as record numbers of East Europeans go home – The Sun Sajid Javid urged to stop 60,000 non-EU citizens a year slipping through migration cap due to ‘loophole’ – The Sun Two Years After Leave Vote: Unemployment at Lowest Level For 40 Years – Guido Fawkes Britain could be responsible for taking in 141 migrants rescued from the Med because the ship is flying under Gibraltar’s flag – The Sun Hunt says the EU must change its approach if it wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit… Jeremy Hunt has called on the EU to change its approach on Brexit, and said the risk of failing to reach a deal has risen in recent weeks. The British foreign secretary was speaking at the start of three-day tour of continental Europe aimed at persuading member states to back Theresa May’s Brexit plan.“I think the risk of a no Brexit deal has been increasing recently,” Hunt told journalists in Helsinki. “But it’s not what anyone wants and I hope very much that we’ll find a way to avoid that.”He added: “We do need to see a change in approach by the European commission.” – Guardian Jeremy Hunt begins tour of European ministers – BBC News Risk of no-deal Brexit rising, ‘everyone needs to prepare’ – Hunt – Reuters …as Latvian foreign minister warns the chances of ‘no deal’ Brexit are 50-50 The chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit are 50-50 but the PM’s Chequers blueprint could break the deadlock, the Latvian foreign minister said today. Edgars Rinkēvičs warned of the growing potential for a collapse in negotiations as he met Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt in Riga…Mr Rinkēvičs said: ‘Frankly I think at this point I would rate it 50-50. ’50-50 is a very considerable risk. Of course from our point of view, the EU is united at 27.’ – Daily Mail EU steps up legal threats to Poland over controversial court reforms, giving Warsaw one month to comply The European Union on Tuesday stepped up its legal threats to Poland over its controversial Supreme Court reforms, giving Warsaw one month to comply or risk being hauled before the bloc’s top court. The move raises the stakes in a bitter, long-running confrontation between the European Commission and Poland’s right-wing government over the rule of law in the former communist state. Brussels launched so-called infringement proceedings against Warsaw on July 2 over the changes introduced by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), which critics say put the judicial system under government control and are a threat to Polish democracy. – Telegraph (£) Motorists face soaring costs under proposed EU tyre rules EU chiefs want to toughen regulations to ensure that all new tyres fitted to vehicles on public roads are printed with information about their fuel efficiency, safety and noise standards.And even though the UK is due to quit the EU next year, British drivers could still be affected by the change – expected in 2020 if agreed by MEPs – because Brussels regulations are due to remain in force after Brexit under Theresa May’s plans. Jayne Adye, director of Get Britain Out, said: “This proposed EU regulation demonstrates how out of touch the European Commission is with the real world.Whilst it may look good on paper over in Brussels, this regulation would harm British motorists and farmers burdened with extra costs.” – Express Matthew Elliott: Economic optisim is battling the project fear no-deal panic Even against the backdrop of Brexit, the Conservative party unease and Labour’s turmoil over antisemitism, there has been a noticeable lull in the news since parliament went into recess in July. Pencilled in to fill this gap was a series of papers from the government outlining preparations for a no-deal Brexit, to strengthen Britain’s hand in the negotiations by making it clear that no deal is still a feasible option. The repetition provided by a steady stream of reports was intended to reassure the public, but it was then decided that a “drip, drip” approach would be more akin to water torture. The papers are now set to be released all at once, in the next couple of weeks. This change of plan, however, did not stop the media from writing about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. – Matthew Elliott for City AM Peter Lilley: Even a no-deal Brexit is better than status quo For two years I have advised businesses to prepare for Brexit assuming that there will be no UK/EU trade agreement. A trade deal would be the best outcome but the Chequers plan is moribund and the conventional trade agreement offered by the EU in March is unacceptable because the “Irish backstop” involves splitting the UK. It is time to recognise that “no deal” is likely and would be a good second best, making a better deal possible later. Leaving with no trade deal with the EU has four consequences. First, we would trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms. As trade and industry secretary I spent ten days incarcerated in the Heysel Stadium negotiating the Uruguay Round which set up the WTO. Far from “falling off a cliff”, WTO terms are designed to provide a safety net ensuring all members can trade without discrimination. The EU will have to offer us the most favoured nation terms its other major trading partners enjoy. – Peter Lilley for The Times (£) Dear Agony Aunt – our friend Theresa has a problem with Michel. Can you help? – Peter Lilley for ConservativeHome Iain Duncan Smith: Sorry, Project Fear, we are not going to fall off a cliff-edge The Project Fear claim that the EU will carry out hostile non-cooperation with the UK is ridiculous, too. First, the EU’s constitution requires it “to establish an area of good neighbourliness” with bordering countries. Secondly, the WTO treaty forbids discrimination against trading partners. And thirdly, the new Trade Facilitation Treaty commits members to facilitating trade, not obstructing it. After all, it’s not as if the UK wants to do something no other country in the world is doing. – Iain Duncan Smith for the Telegraph (£) John Redwood: Busting the myth that EU’s business rules haven’t changed In her letter the PM says “the rules of goods are long established – the last substantial change was in 1987”. This is untrue. The EU is regularly updating and extending its rules over business. Once we have left we lose the little influence we did have whilst still a member with a vote to prevent or delay the most damaging proposals. “Many of the rules are based on international standards set by bodies that we will have a seat on”. Fine, then there is no need to bind us into the EU version anyway. “British businesses which export to the EU have been clear they will continue to follow the rules in order to continue selling into the European market”. Of course if a customer wants a given specification the supplier will meet it. That does not mean we have to adopt those same standards for everything we do at home, or be bound by them if selling to third countries with their own different requirements. Exports to the EU are only 12% of our economic output. – John Redwood’s Diary Chris Chapman: Banking Brexodus or not, advertisers will ensure the capital thrives London’s position as a global business hub has been cause celebre ever since the UK voted to leave the European Union. It sometimes feels like the naysayers want the worst to happen, if only to be proven right. They certainly have precedent. But most of the noise around business flight – the so-called Brexodus – focuses on the only industry that seems to matter: banking. In the last few weeks Nomura, Goldman Sachs, and others have each said they will relocate parts of their business due to Brexit. The UK is the world’s biggest financial services exporter by a country mile, which isn’t about to change. – Chris Chapman for City A.M. Asa Bennett: Theresa May thinks her Brexit plan is the only option, but Tory Leavers are plotting to call her bluff The proposed Brexit outline ministers agreed at Chequers may be floundering in Brussels and Westminster, but Theresa May is refusing to let it die.Supporters of her plan say that it offers the best chance of delivering on the referendum result, while Brexiteer critics like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson insist that it should be torn up in favour of something much more ambitious. – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£) Paul McGrade: Leo Varadkar won’t sign his own death warrant, no matter how much Theresa May asks The only issue holding up a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement this year is how to prevent a hard border in Ireland. Theresa May has repeatedly framed the EU’s favoured Northern Ireland ‘backstop’ solution as a threat to the constitutional integrity of the UK which ‘no British Prime Minister’ could accept. In July, she accepted an amendment to the Trade Bill which makes it illegal to have Northern Ireland in a separate customs territory from the rest of the UK. As ‘no deal’ looms large, the Government is effectively trying to raise the stakes in what looks like a game of chicken with Dublin. – Paul McGrade for the Telegraph (£) David Paton: Stop worrying and prepare for a no deal Brexit. That’s how we’ll get the best deal possible Of course, the real reason for the new Project Fear is to make “no deal” seem so unattractive to UK voters that they come round to Theresa May’s much-criticised Brexit plan. The problem though is that if we take no deal off the table, the EU then have every incentive to offer the worst deal possible to the UK in which we are tied forever to EU rules and regulations but without having a say. Perhaps that is what the Prime Minister’s arch-Remainer civil servant, Olly Robbins, has been planning all along. Leaving the EU without a trade deal is nothing to be frightened of. In fact, preparing for a “no deal” Brexit makes it much more likely we will end up leaving with the best deal possible of all. – David Paton for the Telegraph (£) Steven Erlanger: E.U. Sees Real Brexit Talks at Last — and Real Dangers From the start of the torturous negotiations over Brexit, as Britain’s exit from the European Union is known, the talks have followed an all too familiar dynamic. The Europeans set the agenda; the British push for concessions or special deals, while trying to work out among themselves what they really want. The Europeans say no, sticking to a pretty hard line. But now, with 85 percent of a deal completed, and the toughest issues remaining, European officials say they are increasingly worried that Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is so divided and fragile that it could collapse, scuttling a deal and inflicting damage on the Continental economy. – Steven Erlanger for the New York Times Brexit in Brief Lessons For Brexit from the Hanseatic League – Lee Rotherham for Briefings for Brexit The poverty of May’s language is an insult to the public – Andrew Gimson for ConservativeHome ‘Brexit Britain and policing Project Fear’ – Luke Watson of Get Britain Out for The Commentator BoJo’s time has come – Peter Bingle for Comment Central Proposals for Regulatory Equivalence in financial services – James Arnell for Briefings for Brexit Gove is setting himself up as Brexit’s Michael Collins – Garvan Walshe for ConservativeHome Why region’s restaurants can survive ‘no deal’ Brexit – Yorkshire Post EU must ‘change approach’ to avoid no-deal – Hunt – SkyNews German Chancellor says she hopes a ‘negotiated’ Brexit deal can be agreed – The Sun Chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit are now 50-50 claims Latvian foreign minister ahead of talks with Jeremy Hunt – The Sun Can Britain alone stop Brexit? Scottish court hears appeal – Reuters ‘Want another referendum?’ Minister polls constituents – SkyNews Theresa May told to come clean about her post-Brexit immigration plans – The Sun Jeremy Hunt angers Tory Brexiteers by saying ‘No Deal’ would hit pound ahead of Brexit negotiations – The Sun Cryptocurrencies Can Bring Stability to the UK After Brexit – Fintech Times