Brexit News for Sunday 14 January

Brexit News for Sunday 14 January
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Labour rule out joining Lib Dems and SNP in backing pro-Single Market and Customs Union amendment to Withdrawal Bill…

Labour will not back a cross-party effort to keep the UK in the single market and customs union, despite calls from other opposition party leaders for Jeremy Corbyn to join forces with them. The SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Greens will collectively back an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill this week. They say the change to the Bill would prevent ministers being able to take the UK out of the single market and customs union without the approval of Parliament. – Sky News

Corbyn under pressure over Brexit – Channel 4 News

…as Sir Keir Starmer claims Labour Party is in ‘huge agreement’ over outcome of Brexit

Sir Keir said he wanted the same trade outcomes as backbench critics calling for the party to campaign to stay in the single market and customs union, regardless of “labels”. “If you were to ask the vast majority of Labour Party people what do you actually want to achieve, rather than the label, we’d all be in huge agreement.” Speaking at a Fabian Society conference in London, Sir Keir reiterated that Labour would vote against any Brexit deal that did not contain the “exact same benefits” that the UK currently enjoys through membership of the single market and customs union. – Belfast Telegraph

Arlene Foster calls for close Irish relations post-Brexit

DUP leader Arlene Foster has said that the futures of Northern Ireland and the Republic will still be closely connected after Brexit. She was speaking at the Killarney Economic Conference in County Kerry. Mrs Foster told the audience that Brexit was not about “building a wall and cutting ourselves off from our nearest neighbours”. Her speech set out her vision of north-south relations during the Brexit process. Her words struck a more conciliatory tone after the ongoing Brexit negotiations strained relations between her party and the Irish government. – BBC News

Our historic Brexit vote could be reversed, says Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage today makes a dramatic admission that the vote for Brexit could be overturned because Remainers have seized control of the argument over Britain’s future relationship with the EU. The former Ukip leader told the Observer that he was becoming increasingly worried that the Leave camp had stopped fighting their corner, leaving a well-funded and organised Remain operation free to influence the political and public debate without challenge. “The Remain side are making all the running,” said Farage. “They have a majority in parliament, and unless we get ourselves organised we could lose the historic victory that was Brexit.” – Observer

UK gets financial services hope as EU27 hone Brexit demands

The U.K. shouldn’t give up hope of getting financial services included in a final trade agreement with the European Union, with a Bloomberg survey of the EU’s 27 remaining governments revealing divergences of opinion. While nearly all of the EU’s capitals consider maintaining unity of the bloc their main priority, a few take a softer line on financial services than the one expressed by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator. Barnier has said there can be no easy access to the bloc’s single market for U.K. financial companies because this has never been included in previous EU trade deals and would be tantamount to allowing the U.K. to “cherry pick” the best aspects of EU membership. – Bloomberg

EU would lose £500bn as the UK gained £640bn in no-deal Brexit, leading economist predicts

A “no deal” outcome from the Brexit negotiations would lead to a £500 billion loss for the European Union, according to a new analysis. A study by Patrick Minford, a professor of economics at Cardiff University, states that while a failure to reach a deal would lead to “short term nuisance” for both sides, Brussels would face a “substantial economic loss”, compared to a net gain for the UK. Prof Minford, who chairs the Eurosceptic Economists for Free Trade group, concludes: “It could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown”. – Telegraph

Theresa May pounces to end Cabinet war over Brexit aims

Theresa May plans to make a speech outlining the government’s Brexit policy in the February parliamentary recess after holding three meetings of her Brexit war cabinet to thrash out a compromise between warring ministers. Documents seen by The Sunday Times show May has told ministers they will have to agree how the trade talks with the EU should unfold, what a future economic and security partnership will look like and the nature of the rules to create a “level playing field” with Brussels when they meet this week. – Sunday Times (£)

Brexit and agriculture: British farmers to plough new course

For decades, rural policy in Britain has focused on subsidising farmers. After the UK joined the then European Economic Community and its Common Agricultural Policy in 1973, the agriculture sector was also insulated from foreign competition by import tariffs. On leaving the EU, the government will have to decide between recreating some of the European subsidies and trade barriers that sustain many of its farms or allowing market forces to play a bigger role in the sector. It will also have to mediate between some high-profile interest groups and broader interests in the countryside that are often less well organised. – FT (£)

Deutsche boss John Cryan: no City exit

Deutsche Bank will move far fewer jobs to Frankfurt after Brexit than the 4,000 that has been widely reported, according to the lender’s British boss. “The 4,000 number that comes up again and again is much too high,” John Cryan told a Swiss newspaper. The Yorkshireman added that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Germany’s main financial hub and cities such as Milan and Paris. Deutsche‘s headquarters is in Frankfurt, but it has 8,600 employees in Britain. “Mainly bankers, technology experts and traders work in London and they want to stay there,” Cryan said. – Times (£)

James Forsyth: May can’t bend Macron’s ear on Brexit until she knows what the UK wants

May’s ability to lobby Macron will be impeded by the fact the British government still hasn’t decided precisely what Brexit deal it wants. The Cabinet didn’t discuss the Brexit end-state this week and it’s not on the agenda for next week either. However, I understand that the Brexit inner Cabinet will have a two-hour meeting next week as it begins to thrash out the UK position. Those on the committee expect there will be three of these meetings before Theresa May gives her big speech setting out what the UK wants, which is now expected in February. – James Forsyth for the Spectator

  • Theresa May must take the opportunity to bend Emmanuel Macron’s ear at the Brexit table next week – James Forsyth for the Sun on Sunday

John Redwood: The Customs Union and the World Trade Organisation

Those who continue to argue that we need to be in the Customs Union of the EU, or need to copy it from outside the Union as we leave, need to answer two very simple questions. Why do we have a large and persistent trade deficit with the Customs Union, and a trade surplus with the rest of the world trading with them under WTO rules? Why has our trade been growing faster in recent years with the rest of the world than with the EU Customs Union? The figures are quite stark. Our trade in goods  deficit with the EU widened to £96bn, and our travel deficit to £15bn. Our sales of services were quite unable to offset these large deficits in the way they do for our trade with the rest of the world.  Between 2014 and 2016 our exports to  the rest of the world  grew by 6.7%, whilst our exports to the EU grew by a little over 3%. – John Redwood’s Diary

Rod Liddle: A fresh referendum won’t draw the poison, only make it more potent

My worries about holding a second referendum on our membership of the EU are twofold. First, I’m not entirely sure everyone enjoyed the original one very much. My memory gets hazy from time to time, because of age and alcohol, but I seem to recall a soupcon of rancour, of division, of irritation in June 2016. And second, in the highly unlikely event that “remain” won, we on the other side would then be forced to demand a third referendum, given that the result would be very close and those voting to stay in were all thick as mince, unwashed, uneducated, probably from parts of England that nobody with a right mind would visit — and thus unaware of what might happen a little further down the line. – Rod Liddle for the Times (£)

Brexit in brief

  • Second Brexit referendum could ‘result in worse deal’ – Irish Times
  • EU ‘punishing’ UK with meagre three loans since Article 50 trigger – Express
  • Fears Brexit chief being forced out of EU talks – Express
  • Messing with Brexit puts Yes victory at risk, warns Sillars – Scotsman
  • UK inflation starting to slow – Bloomberg
  • Last chance to dodge disaster of hard Brexit, warns Sturgeon – Times (£)