Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Philip Hammond preparing to bring forward income tax cuts in Budget boost for Brexit Philip Hammond is preparing to use his Budget to bring forward income tax cuts for millions to a month after Britain leaves the EU in a Brexit boost, The Telegraph has learned. The move, which would benefit more than 30 million taxpayers, will see income tax thresholds rise from April 2019 – a year earlier than planned. The Chancellor is considering the surprise plan for his Budget after the biggest improvement in forecasts for the UK’s public finances in decades. The Office for Budget Responsibility is set to give the Chancellor much more room for manoeuvre with new forecasts showing that borrowing is £13 billion lower than forecast. – Telegraph (£) ‘Steady-as-she-goes’ budget planned ahead of Brexit – Sky News Philip Hammond has an opportunity to show positive planning for a no-deal outcome – James Forsyth for The Sun At a time when Britain is leaving the EU, our country should be poised to become more attractive for investment – Priti Patel MP for the Telegraph (£) Russia seeks to capitalise on Brexit after blocking Liam Fox’s WTO plan Russia is among 20 countries that are looking to squeeze a commercial advantage from Brexit after blocking an attempt by the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, to fast-track a World Trade Organization deal on the UK’s terms of trade with the world. Whitehall is now facing “up to two dozen” different negotiations with countries over how much meat and dairy produce will be permitted into the British market and what tariffs the UK will set on imports. The development will pile pressure on the UK’s already strained resources. The Department for International Trade spent more than £1m on recruitment consultants alone in its first year trying to take on experienced trade negotiators, an area that had previously been left entirely to the EU. – Guardian People’s Vote campaign accused of flouting Facebook’s new advertising rules The People’s Vote campaign group has been flouting Facebook’s new rules on political advertising, it has been claimed. A formal complaint has been lodged with Facebook accusing campaigners for a second referendum of “bypassing” the new transparency measures by presenting itself as a “community group” online rather than a political organisation. They claim this means it does not have to pay for disclaimers on any of its advertising on the social media site, unlike pro-Brexit groups. – Telegraph (£) French officials dismiss UK fears of Calais ‘go-slow’… French officials have rejected suggestions they could resort to a “go-slow” policy at the port of Calais if there is no Brexit deal. The UK’s Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab warned on Thursday of major disruption in a “worse case scenario”, which might force firms to use other ports. But Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region, said ensuring “fluidity” of trade was essential. Another official said closing Calais would be an “economic suicide mission”. There has been widespread concern about the impact of longer border checks at Calais if the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 without a deal. Transport Secretary Chris Grayling met the mayor of Calais, Natacha Bouchart, on Thursday to discuss French and British preparations for such an eventuality amid claims that businesses may be forced to use Dutch and Belgian ports instead to transport goods. – BBC News UK’s secret £75m plan to hire ten cross-Channel ships to beat French ‘No Deal’ blockade – The Sun Well done Chris Grayling. Calais trade will be fine after Brexit – John Redwood’s Diary …while Brexit won’t ruin Strictly Come Dancing after all Downing Street has reassured fans of Strictly Come Dancing that the show is not at risk from Brexit, following claims by Sir Vince Cable. Sir Vince – who appeared on the the Strictly Christmas special in 2010 – said a “cack-handed” immigration policy could stop dancers from the EU appearing on the show. The Lib Dem leader made the comments after a meeting with Michel Barnier. He made the case for a second referendum to the EU negotiator. Many of the professional dancers on Strictly Come Dancing come from EU countries. “As British society falls apart it could pose a risk to Strictly,” Sir Vince, who has said he wants to halt Brexit, told The Telegraph. “If we have a cack-handed immigration policy like what we have for non-EU citizens, all kinds of perverse decisions could be made,” But a Downing Street spokesperson said: “I think Strictly will be fine.” – BBC News Sadiq Khan warns EU to brace for Brexit to be delayed… Sadiq Khan warned the EU to brace for Brexit to be delayed today – as Theresa May put off a Cabinet showdown over her Irish border plan. The London Mayor told Michel Barnier to be ready to postpone the March deadline as he held talks with the negotiator in Brussels. He said an extension to the Article 50 process could well be needed while a second referendum or election is held. The intervention came as Remainers ramped up their campaign to block Brexit as negotiations reach crunch point. – Daily Mail …as he warns Michel Barnier that no-deal would also hurt EU The consequences of the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal would be felt across the Continent, London Mayor Sadiq Khan warned the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier. The two had a meeting in Brussels today, where the Labour politician said he told Barnier that “a bad Brexit deal or, even worse, no deal whatsoever is bad for London, is bad for our country but is also bad for the EU.” “He gets that but the point that he would make if he was here, is that the ball is in the court of the British prime minister,” he told reporters outside the European Commission. – Politico Ratings agency says it no longer assumes Britain will get a smooth Brexit Ratings agency Fitch said on Friday it no longer assumed that Britain would leave the European Union in a smooth transition and said an acrimonious and disruptive “no deal” Brexit could lead to a further downgrade of its sovereign credit rating. “In Fitch’s view, an intensification of political divisions within the UK … has increased the likelihood of an acrimonious and disruptive ‘no deal’ Brexit. “Such an outcome would substantially disrupt customs, trade and economic activity, and has led Fitch to abandon its base case on which the ratings were previously predicated.” – Reuters Meet Theresa May’s top lawyer, the latest hurdle to a Brexit deal When Theresa May promoted a little-known, pro-Brexit lawyer to be attorney general in July, she hoped he would be the right man to take on the legal complexities of the U.K.’s divorce talks with the European Union. Unfortunately for the prime minister — and her chances of striking a Brexit deal — Geoffrey Cox is proving to be too good at his job. The government’s top law officer is now leading the pro-Brexit revolt inside May’s Cabinet, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. In precise legal detail, Cox, 58, has warned his colleagues against giving in to the EU’s demands over the future of the Northern Irish border — the key sticking point in negotiations. – Bloomberg Legal row over EU citizens’ ‘settled status’ after Brexit – FT (£) Cox’s dose of cold constitutional reality on the backstop is long overdue – Henry Hill for ConservativeHome James Forsyth: Even ministers don’t understand Brexit The Brexit negotiations are becoming so complicated that even the cabinet admits that it doesn’t understand what is going on. The Prime Minister has been told by several of her colleagues that they won’t back any deal she agrees until they have seen written legal advice, setting out what it means. If a Brexit deal is going to be impenetrable even to secretaries of state who have followed every step of the negotiations, what hope does the public have? This extraordinary state of affairs was summed up by the cabinet meeting this week during which ministers discussed where the negotiations stand. – James Forsyth for The Spectator Steve Baker: Time for Chancellor to publish Brexit economic modelling A number of us wrote to the Chancellor on October 14, requesting publication in full of the Government’s Brexit model. Subsequently, Open Europe published forecasts which, like work from Economists for Free Trade, are more positive than the Treasury analysis… Following MP Sheryll Murray’s opening question at Prime Minister’s Questions on October 17, we are again calling on the Chancellor to publish immediately, in full detail, the cross-Whitehall Brexit analysis, and the underlying models and assumptions, so that experts from all sides can inform public debate. – Letter to the Telegraph from Steve Baker MP and 34 Tory MPs Philip Hammond’s economic forecasts on Brexit don’t work, says former minister – Chopper’s Brexit podcast Juliet Samuel: Britain shouldn’t tie itself into a voiceless pact with an EU that is changing fast You have to laugh. Germany’s Green Party is on a roll, surging into the vacuum left by the decay of the country’s mainstream parties. They have an opportunity to gain ground in regional elections, presenting themselves as uncorrupted pragmatists rather than radicals. They can’t shed the crazy entirely, however. This week, Green Party leader Annalena Baerbock declared that she wants to pull Germany out of Nato’s nuclear-sharing arrangements and send the US’s protective nukes packing from German soil. This, she claims, is the “right answer” to growing Russian and US militarism. – Juliet Samuel for the Telegraph (£) David Blake: Ten reasons that justify the UK’s decision to leave the European Union One, the EU is a fundamentally protectionist trading bloc. Big business lobbies Brussels for more regulations to make it more difficult for small companies to enter the market and compete. The Customs Union, to which all EU member states belong, imposes more than 13,000 tariffs on imported goods. As a result, EU consumers are paying an average of 17% above world prices on food. The Single Market is a single protectionist zone where regulations are harmonised and all goods and services produced must satisfy these regulations whether or not they are sold in other member states. Only 6% of UK companies trade with the EU – accounting for around 12% of Gross Domestic Product – yet 100% of UK regulations are determined in Brussels, including for the 94% of UK companies that do not trade with the EU – David Blake for Briefings for Brexit Matt Singh: Can politicians ignore the public? Last weekend saw one of the biggest ever public protests in Britain, with organisers claiming more than 700,000 people took to the streets of London to support a second Brexit referendum. The scale of this demonstration led some to describe it as “too big to ignore”. How we assess that claim depends to a large extent on how we interpret it. If “ignore” is taken literally to mean “pay no attention”, then that would indeed be difficult. But if instead it means “not change course” then that is a possible (and seemingly likely) outcome. Neither main party supported a second referendum beforehand and that remains the case now. – Matt Singh for CapX Comment in Brief Weak Tory rebels risk a repeat of the Major debacle – Ross Clark for the Express We will be full members of WTO on 30 March and trading under their rules – John Redwood’s Diary Britain approaching a May 1940 meltdown minus leadership – Iain Martin for Reaction Oh for a time machine, so Wells could write about Brexit – Jane Kelly for ConservativeWoman A Norway-style Brexit should be enough for a country as divided as ours – Tom Harris for The Telegraph (£) The Conservatives should be thinking ahead about a future border poll in Northern Ireland – Nick Hargrave for ConservativeHome News in Brief Ex-minister insists No Deal is ‘nothing to be afraid of’ and blasts Hammond’s gloomy predictions – The Sun Merkel says Europe wants orderly Brexit solution, not debating other options – Reuters Theresa May slaps down Argentina’s claim that a No Deal Brexit will help them win the Falklands – The Sun New Ladybird book on Brexit ridicules all sides – Daily Mail Angela Merkel’s last stand? – Politico And finally… Brexit Britain – but not as you know it Families are hoarding tinned goods. Coffee is being stockpiled so Britons don’t have to drink ground acorns after Brexit. A nation raised on porridge and boiled mutton is facing up to a future of food shortages. Or at least that’s what The New York Times would have its readers believe. The American newspaper’s decision to publish a front-page article devoted to a tiny band of “preppers” buying up pet food, candles and lavatory paper to survive post-Brexit meltdown has attracted amusement and drawn attention to the title’s increasingly sour depiction of life in Britain. The piece last week, headlined “British Hoarders Stock Up on Supplies, Preparing for Brexit”, was based on conversations with members of a niche Facebook group called 48 Per Cent Preppers, and the presenter of a podcast that imagines the “absolute worst” consequences of a no-deal departure. The reporter also interviewed a couple who had started growing crops in their Cornwall garden and feared that Brexit would be as bad as Second World War rationing and 1970s powercuts combined. – The Times (£)