Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team ———————– EU will agree Brexit delay if there is a second referendum… The European Union is poised to tell Theresa May that she must hold a second referendum or soften Brexit in return for them granting a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure date. The Times understands that the prime minister has been told by senior EU officials and other European leaders that conditions for an extension to the Article 50 exit process would include the option of a second vote on EU membership. Mrs May is expected to ask a summit of EU leaders next week for a delay to Brexit. Unless the House of Commons has ratified the withdrawal agreement by then momentum is growing across the EU for a lengthy postponement to give Britain a “long reflection period”. – The Times (£) …while EU document says UK must take part in European elections if Brexit is delayed past June Brexit can’t be delayed beyond July 1 unless Britain takes part in the European Parliament election at the end of May, according to an EU document presented to ambassadors of member countries on Friday. The document, prepared by EU officials, sets out the legal issues that would be raised by Britain requesting an extension of the Article 50 period, as Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to do next week. The text states that a withdrawing member country is legally bound to organize European Parliament elections between May 23 and May 26 this year. – Politico Tory MEPs are canvassed on contesting EU elections in Brexit delay . – Politico France says ‘No Deal’ would prevail if UK’s plan unclear by next week… Britain would only be granted an extension to the Article 50 Brexit negotiation period if its parliament passed the deal on the table or if a clear alternative plan emerged by next week’s EU summit, a French official said on Friday. The British parliament voted overwhelmingly on Thursday to seek a delay to the March 29 exit date enshrined in law, but how Britain’s divorce from the European Union will pan out is still uncertain. Options include a long delay, exiting with British Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal, which would require a short technical delay, leaving without a deal or another referendum. “Without clarity – an adoption of the Withdrawal Agreement or a clear alternative – a no-deal would prevail,” the official at President Emmanuel Macron’s office said. – Reuters …as the EU demands a clear plan from Britain… The UK must put forward a clear plan for what happens next if there is to be a delay to Brexit, EU leaders have warned. Despite MPs voting in favour of extending the Article 50 negotiating period on Thursday night, the House of Commons has been told this does not necessarily rule out a no-deal Brexit. Instead, MPs will either have to approve Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, which they have already rejected twice, or come up with another proposal for breaking the deadlock at Westminster. – Sky News Dutch PM Rutte: Current Brexit withdrawal agreement ‘only deal on table’ – Reuters German conservative: EU should give Britain generous Brexit extension – Reuters Sling them out or long delay: Europeans weigh Brexit options – Reuters …and an Irish minister warns against a ‘cliff edge’ Brexit after a short delay Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said this morning the EU is keen to avoid a “cliff-edge” Brexit at the end of June. Speaking in London, he added that Ireland remains confident of prevailing with its allies in a battle against France and Germany over its low corporate tax. “Ireland will provide a generous response” to the U.K.’s request to extend the Brexit deadline, Donohoe said in a public question-and-answer session after a speech. – Politico EU countries want to know UK’s Brexit delay plan before approving – Irish finance minister – Reuters Nigel Dodds warns Theresa May the DUP won’t waver on their red lines… In an interview with The House magazine, the deputy DUP leader said protecting the United Kingdom’s constitutional integrity “remains sacrosanct and above everything else”. While Mr Dodds said the DUP are in the business of “wanting to get a deal done”, he warned that the party is well versed in negotiations and would not succumb to pressure from outside forces. He also savaged the Prime Minister’s negotiating strategy, branding the decision to trigger Article 50 before having a clear strategy in place a “major mistake”. And he accused Karen Bradley of “glaring failures” as Northern Ireland Secretary and called for a change of leadership in the “dysfunctional” department. The DUP once again voted against the Withdrawal Agreement this week after Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, admitted the deal could still see the UK kept in the Irish backstop indefinitely against its will. – The House …as Government continues talks with the party to get support for May’s deal… The DUP has welcomed the government’s “renewed focus” on addressing its objections to the Brexit deal ahead of next week’s third Commons vote. The party has twice voted against the deal over concerns it would see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK. After talks with ministers in London, its Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said it was still seeking extra guarantees. His party “wanted to get a deal but it had to be the right deal”, he said. Mr Dodds spent Friday afternoon in meetings with key cabinet figures – including Chancellor Philip Hammond and Environment Secretary Michael Gove – as the government seeks to persuade MPs to support its deal when it returns to the Commons. – BBC News DUP’s Arlene Foster to fly in for talks on backing Theresa May’s Brexit deal – The Times (£) …while May’s aides say she is ‘finished’ and must ‘fall on her sword’ as price for Tory MPs to back her deal Senior aides of Theresa May privately believe she is “finished” and may be forced to set out a timetable for her departure if she is to win the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. The Telegraph understands that two senior Downing Street figures believe that the Prime Minister should “fall on her sword” and announce she will quit to ensure she is able to “go with dignity”. They believe she has permanently “lost the trust of Eurosceptics” and will have to make way for a new leader after the Conservative Party conference in October. – Telegraph (£) No‑deal better than a big delay, says Stephen Barclay Stephen Barclay frayed cabinet collective responsibility still further yesterday by insisting that the UK should leave without a deal rather than endure a long Brexit delay. He defended his decision to vote against a motion mandating the prime minister to seek a short delay to complete legislation minutes after telling MPs that it was in the national interest. Mr Barclay said he had exercised his right to oppose the motion on a free vote because it had raised the prospect that the EU may force a longer delay. He was one of seven cabinet ministers to vote against Theresa May’s appeal to parliament to ask for a Brexit delay. – The Times (£) Jeremy Corbyn plans second referendum push only after MPs pass Brexit deal… Jeremy Corbyn is planning to push for a second referendum only after Theresa May’s deal has been voted through by MPs, i can reveal. In a move that will incense campaigners for another Brexit vote as well as the vast majority of Labour’s activists, Mr Corbyn believes demanding a chance to go back to the public can only work once the withdrawal agreement is passed. The leader’s office is in talks with Labour backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson who have drafted an amendment that would ask MPs to back the Prime Minister’s withdrawal plan but on the condition she puts it to the public in a second referendum. Amend legislation Mr Corbyn is reluctant to follow the plan, however, as he does not want to be seen to be helping the Government pass what Labour believes is a flawed policy. – i News …as rebel Labour MPs demand a say on future talks as the price for backing May’s deal Theresa May’s team are in behind-closed-door talks in a bid to secure the support of up to 20 Labour MPs for the prime minister’s troubled Brexit deal. Ministers are said to be negotiating with the MPs from Leave-backing seats, as pressure intensifies on Ms May to secure backing for her twice-defeated plan. With just four days to go until the vote, the Labour Brexiteers have demanded that parliament’s right to shape Britain’s future relations with the EU be cemented into law.Attempts to woo the support of Jeremy Corbyn’s MPs have so far largely failed, but if efforts succeed then the Labour backing could neutralise an expected rebellion of hardcore Tory Eurosceptic MPs. – Independent Foreign students can stay in the UK for longer after their degree ends to boost post-Brexit economy Foreign students will be allowed to stay in the UK for longer after their degree ends in a bid to boost the post-Brexit economy by £35 billion, the Government has announced. International students are currently only permitted to remain in the UK for up to four months after completing their studies under rules that were introduced by Theresa May when she was the Home Secretary. But now their post-study leave period will be extended to six months for undergraduate and masters students and a year for doctoral students. – Telegraph (£) Former Brexit Secretary David Davis’s constituency believes delay in leaving the EU could cost him his seat From the lounge of the Wheatsheaf pub to the queue at Annie’s Fruit Bowl the people of Howden have a blunt Yorkshire message for Westminster: get on with it. The town of 4,000 has followed the Brexit process closely through its Conservative MP, David Davis. His constituents in Haltemprice and Howden voted narrowly to leave the EU and almost three years later many are frustrated it has yet to happen. Not least because Mr Davis was once the Brexit secretary in charge of negotiations. He resigned in July 2018, but this week he voted in favour of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, at the second time of asking. The Conservative party’s internal contortions have left the country not knowing how and when it will exit the EU — for which some Howden voters may never forgive them. – FT (£) Fishing flotilla protests Withdrawal Agreement as ‘an existential threat to fishing’ on River Tyne A flotilla of fishing boats has sailed in protest against the Prime Minister’s Brexit plans. The demonstration on the River Tyne came the day before former UKIP leader Nigel Farage starts out on a March to Leave, from Sunderland to London. Fishing for Leave said MPs had not honoured the 2016 referendum result to split with the EU, and were trying to “thwart democracy”. The government has insisted its Brexit agreement will protect the industry. About 20 Fishing For Leave boats set off from North Shields, North Tyneside, and made their way to Newcastle Quayside. Meanwhile, a trawler bearing a Fishing For Leave banner was driven on the back of a lorry heading for a meeting point in the city centre. ‘Enough is enough’ Aaron Brown, head of the group, said: “It’s to tell MPs enough is enough. “They’re trying to thwart democracy, thwart the biggest vote in British history. “We’ve seen that in parliament. It’s brazen. It’s not lip service to Brexit, it’s open revolt against it.” The group described the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement as “an existential threat to fishing and a total betrayal of Brexit and Britain”. “It means a second surrender of our industry and coastal communities and places a constitutional bomb under democracy,” it added. – BBC News Henry Hill: The Vienna Convention is a very, very slender ladder down which to retreat You can forgive those who are now sceptical about the Attorney General’s new proposal to use the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, to give it its full title, as Britain’s backstop get-out clause, and not just because Cox didn’t feel able to place great weight on it before political necessity forced his hand. The Convention itself, as the BBC explains, essentially states that parties to a treaty have the right to withdraw from it in the event of relevant circumstances changing significantly in a manner the signatories could not foresee. However, Martin Howe, one of the Brexiteers’ legal experts and a member of the European Research Group’s so-called ‘Star Chamber’ which rejected Cox’s advice, thinks this is a complete non-starter, telling the Evening Standard that: “The leading case in the International Court of Justice (the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros case between Hungary and Slovakia) shows this requires radical change of circumstances. The fall of the Soviet Union, disappearance of the Warsaw Pact, and dissolution of Czechoslovakia, were not sufficient to satisfy this ground. “The other issue is, under Article 62, the change of circumstances has to be unforeseeable. As we are talking about this ‘change of circumstances’ now, it cannot be unforeseeable.” – Henry Hill for Conservative Home Andrea Jenkyns: Theresa May’s revolting ministers should either resign or be sacked As many of you will have seen, during the vote Sarah Newton resigned over, four members of the Cabinet, namely Rudd, Gauke, Clarke and Mundell, chose not to vote in favour of the Government, despite being instructed to do so. In accordance with collective responsibility, they should have resigned or been sacked by the end of the night. Yet this did not happen. Instead, the Prime Minister announced that they would be able to keep their jobs…. This simply doesn’t seem right or fair. – Andrea Jenkyns MP for the Telegraph (£) Anna Nadibaidze: What the EU will say when Theresa May asks for a Brexit extension Now that Parliament has backed an extension to the Brexit process, the ball is effectively in the EU’s court. Whether her Brexit deal passes or not, Theresa May will head off to the European Council next week with a demand to delay the UK’s withdrawal, which is still scheduled for 29 March. In the last few weeks, officials from the European Commission and the European Parliament have been very vocal about their reluctance to extend Article 50 unless there is clarity about what the purpose of the extension would be. But ultimately, EU institutions do not have the final say on this matter.- Anna Nadibaidze for The Spectator Mick Hume: When ‘delayed’ means betrayed There will be nothing ‘technical’ about a Brexit delay. It is a political act of sabotage. To understand what is happening, we need only look at the enthusiasm with which hardcore Remainers have embraced the notion of what fossilised Tory Europhile Ken Clarke called a ‘good, long delay’. European Council president Donald Tusk wants a longer extension than three months, tweeting that he would ask the 27 EU member states ‘to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its Brexit strategy’. That is, the Euro elites will delay Brexit long enough for the revolting Brits to come to our senses and abandon it altogether. – Mick Hume for Spiked CPBML: All that is rotten in Britain has come together in the Palace of Westminster If democracy means anything, if it is more than an empty assertion, it means the rule of the people. And by any measure, it is now clear where the main threat to democracy lies in Britain today: in parliament. All that is rotten in Britain has come together in the Palace of Westminster. The idea that the people are too stupid to be entrusted with the future of the country. The belief that Britain – and by extension the British people – is finished, too weak and pathetic to make its own way in the world (unlike virtually every other country). The notion that Britain cannot survive in any form except under rule from abroad. All this is the essence of reaction, distilled and purified with the sole purpose of steering decline. It denies the enormous productive force of the British people, among the most educated and skilled in the world. It denies the future. – Communist Party of Britain Marxist-Leninist Liam Halligan: A delayed Brexit will be disastrous for the EU In the May 2014 European elections, Ukip won 27 per cent of the vote – beating both Labour and the Tories. That was the catalyst that eventually forced David Cameron to permit the EU referendum, the first tremor in the current political earthquake. Five years on, if Brexit ends up being delayed by more than two months, the UK could participate in the next set of elections to the European Parliament – on May 23. Popular anger about the stalling of our EU withdrawal, and attempts to reverse the referendum altogether, mean the outcome of these elections could also be dramatic. It is now “pretty much unavoidable” that the UK will vote in May’s elections, says Nigel Farage. He adds: “And the reshaping of British politics – with people identifying as Leavers and Remainers, not Tory or Labour – means this great Brexit betrayal will generate a strong Eurosceptic vote.” – Liam Halligan for the Telegraph (£) Brexit in Brief The Tories are squandering the opportunity of Brexit – The Spectator editorial Theresa May has trashed our democracy. For the good of the country, she must go – Robin Harris for the Telegraph (£) This Parliamentary farce reveals how much our political class has been infantilised – Mark Wallace for ConservativeHome Why I prefer to back the PM’s deal than go down fighting with Brexiteer soldiers – Ben Bradley MP for the Telegraph (£) I’ve been surprised how useless the civil service have been during the negotiations.- Charles Moore for The Spectator Spare Theresa May the horror of going begging to the EU by voting for her Brexit deal the third time around- James Forsyth for The Sun To solve this crisis, we need a second referendum – Lord Blunkett for the Telegraph (£) Is there a risk Britain will get stuck in the Brexit backstop? – James Forsyth for The Spectator Scaredy-cat Parliament can’t face Brexit – Bruce Newsome for Conservative Woman MPs were right to a take a second referendum off the table – Ben Kelly for Reaction Delay and a second referendum – John Redwood’s Diary The BBC is the EU’s mouthpiece – Kathy Gyngell for Conservative Woman Brexiteers should stop fretting and learn to love the backstop – Juliet Samuel for the Telegraph (£) I don’t envy pro-Brexit MPs – they are now left with an impossible dilemma – Charles Moore for the Telegraph (£) Theresa May has the Brexiteers where she wants them – Faisal Islam for Sky News Orbán takes swipe at EU ahead of centre-right showdown – Politico