EU would be breaking its own rules by forcing ‘no deal’ Brexit outcome: Brexit News for Monday 6 August

EU would be breaking its own rules by forcing ‘no deal’ Brexit outcome: Brexit News for Monday 6 August
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EU would be breaking its own rules by forcing ‘no deal’ Brexit outcome…

Brussels will break its own laws if it refuses to compromise on Brexit, ministers have warned their European counterparts.The EU “keeps stalling” and bringing the prospect of no deal ever closer, they say, even though the Lisbon Treaty requires it to do everything it can to find a workable arrangement with Britain. Senior Whitehall sources said on Sunday that if the UK crashes out of Europe without a deal “we will make it clear whose fault it was”. They point to Article 8 of the treaty, which states that the EU must “develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation”. – Telegraph (£)

  • You ‘break your own rules’ if you fail to compromise on Brexit – UK’s clear message to EU – Express
  • Brussels would be breaking its own rules by forcing ‘no deal’ Brexit outcome, officials say – Politics Home

…as David Davis warns Brussels not to underestimate the UK if we walk away with no-deal

“This has great scope for being a massive miscalculation on the part of the EU that could end up with no deal by accident…It’s certainly not the intention of the EU to have a no-deal Brexit but they are misjudging us at the moment. The UK Parliament does not want no deal but it’s certainly not going to be pushed around by the European Parliament. – Independent

  • Europe warned not to underestimate Britain if we walk away with a no deal Brexit – Metro

Mark Carney’s ‘Doomsday’ Brexit predictions blamed for fall in pound…

Mark Carney’s gloomy predictions about Brexit have been blamed for a slump in the pound that has upped the cost of foreign holidays. The Governor of the Bank of England was described as the “high priest of project fear” after he warned that Britain faced an “uncomfortably high” risk of a no deal Brexit, which he said would lead to higher prices. He said banks had “done the stockpiling” and could survive a recession that meant property prices falling by a third, interest rates increasing by four percentage points and unemployment rocketing to 9 percent. –Telegraph (£)

  • Pound extends losses on Carney comments, dollar strength – Reuters
  • Mark Carney reveals he has ordered banks to be ready for a recession if there is a ‘no deal’ Brexit – The Sun
  • Lies, damned lies, and Mark Carney’s statistics on Brexit  – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Telegraph (£)

Macron ‘won’t allow PM to bypass Brussels’ over Brexit

Emmanuel Macron has rejected suggestions his upcoming talks with Theresa May will form part of the Brexit negotiations. The French president will host the prime minister at his presidential retreat at Fort Bregancon, near Toulon, in the south of France on Friday. The meeting has been viewed as part of a UK attempt to go over the heads of Brussels officials with a direct Brexit plea to the EU’s national governments. However, ahead of Mr Macron meeting Mrs May, his office insisted the pair’s discussions will not be a “substitute for the negotiations” led by the EU’s Michel Barnier. The French president was described as having full trust in Mr Barnier and in the EU chief Brexit negotiator’s response to Mrs May’s Brexit proposals, an Elysee Palace official said. – Sky News

  • Emmanuel Macron pours cold water on Theresa May’s plan to bypass EU boss Michel Barnier in Brexit talks – The Sun
  • Emmanuel Macron wants to save the EU from Brexit, but many French voters lack his zeal – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£)

Liam Fox says there is a 60‑40 chance of no-deal Brexit…

Britain is odds-on to crash out of the European Union without a deal, Liam  Fox warns today. In an interview with The Sunday Times, the international trade secretary put the chances of a no deal departure at “60-40”, squarely blaming the “intransigence” of the European Commission. Fox accused Eurocrats of harbouring a “theological obsession” with EU rules rather than “economic wellbeing”, which would lead to “only one outcome”. His intervention comes amid growing fears about the potential collapse in  talks. – The Times (£)

  • Brussels forcing UK towards no deal Brexit at huge economic cost to the EU – Express
  • No-deal Brexit ‘now more likely’ – Liam Fox – Sky News
  • No 10 hopes for Brexit deal despite Liam Fox’s doubts – The Times (£)

…as Michel Barnier claims Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint plan would undermine the whole EU project…

Michel Barnier has launched his strongest attack yet on Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint by warning it would “undermine” the EU’s foundations. Brussels’ chief negotiator urged member states to reject the UK’s approach for threatening bloc’s Single Market and restricting its sovereignty. He launched the stinging criticism after Cabinet ministers mounted a new charm offensive across Europe to try to convince EU leaders to instruct Mr Barnier to take a softer line. But in an article published in more than 20 papers across the bloc today, the Frenchman issued a rallying cry to hold firm. In his strongest rejection yet of the PM’s white paper, he accused Britain of hypocrisy in its demands of the bloc. Mr Barnier said: “Let’s be frank. As the UK has decided to leave the Single Market, it can no longer be as close economically to the rest of the EU.” – The Sun

  • Theresa May must tread lightly in Brexit talks or she will be trampled by EU chiefs – James Forsyth for The Sun

… but Theresa May still ‘confident’ of good Brexit deal despite Liam Fox saying no deal now odds-on

Theresa May remains “confident” of getting a good Brexit deal, Downing Street insisted today, after Liam Fox suggested a no deal Brexit was now odds on. The International Trade Secretary said the “intransigence” of the European Commission meant there was a 60-40 likelihood of Britain leaving the EU next March without a deal. His comments, which were not disowned by Number 10, appear to be part of a strategy by the Government to talk up the prospect of no deal in order to put pressure on EU leaders to accept Mrs May’s Chequers plan. – Telegraph (£)

Chequers effect blitzes every cabinet minister

In over ten years of surveying the top Conservative team, we have never seen anything like it. Every single Cabinet member named in our last survey is down. Yes, that’s right. The whole lot of them. (There have been two changes since it was published: Dominic Raab and Geoffrey Cox have entered the Cabinet. Both their ratings are lower than their predecessors, David Davis and Jeremy Wright.) Under the circumstances, Sajid Javid does very well indeed to get to 67 per cent, and top the table.  But his rating is down from 75 per cent last month. Michael Gove, who was second on 73 per cent, plunges to 39 per cent. That he is fourth despite this dismal score is a measure of how low this Cabinet is currently rated. Penny Mordaunt, who was third on 62 per cent, drops to 50 per cent. That she rises to second is another measure of the thumbs-down given to her colleagues. And so on. When ratings come in this low, places in the table scarcely matter. – Paul Goodman for ConservativeHome

Brexit ‘gloom’ similar to Millennium bug panic, says leading Brexiteer

Alarm over a “no deal” Brexit are similar to the Millennium bug panic, a leading Brexiteer has said. Sir Bernard Jenkin, a senior member of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers, played down concerns over what leaving the EU without a deal would mean for the UK’s economy. Speaking on the BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, he said: “The civil service and the government are feeding the industry – and the industry is feeding the government – with this diet of gloom, alarm and despondency. Actually, it is unnecessary. – Telegraph (£)

Unrepresented’ right-wing policies give chance for Ukip resurgence, poll shows

New areas of unoccupied political ground on the right could present an opportunity for a Ukip comeback, new polling has found. Large portions of the population feel disenfranchised and unrepresented, according to a YouGov poll, which experts believe presents a key opportunity for a Ukip resurgence. Almost two fifths of Britons feel that the justice system is not harsh enough and that none of the major parties share their view. Similarly, 16 per cent feel that immigration restrictions should be tighter and ten per cent want the government to intervene more to encourage housebuilding, while feeling that no major party is representing them. – Telegraph (£)

  • Nigel Farage plays down talk of running for Parliament for eighth time – Telegraph (£)

Lack of post-Brexit migration plan threatens to divide the UK, MPs warn

The Government’s failure to produce a clear plan for post-Brexit immigration has left a damaging “vacuum” which could be exploited by those wishing to divide Britain, the Home Affairs select committee has warned. Yvette Cooper, the chair of the committee, called on the Prime Minister to drop the net migration target and start a national conversation about options for future immigration policy to stop “misinformation and tensions” which were prevalent during the EU referendum from rising up again. – Telegraph (£)

MPs could be told to vote for a ‘blind Brexit’ as Brussels plots a vague offer on future trade to finalise the divorce bill…

MPs could be ordered to vote for a ‘blind Brexit’ as Brussels prepares to back a vague statement on future trade in a bid to finalise Britain’s divorce deal and transition deal. EU officials have said the ‘priority is to get the withdrawal agreement done’ to ensure Britain does not crash out without a deal. It will still require a solution for the Irish border amid a months-long stand-off on how to avoid infrastructure between the Republic and Northern Ireland. Theresa May will hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron tomorrow in her latest effort to end the impasse and win support for her Chequers plan. Fudging the details of the future relationship is seen as a way of squaring concerns in Brussels. But any attempt to force the divorce through the UK Parliament without knowing the details of the final trade deal will prompt outrage among MPs in the UK. – Daily Mail

  • MPs could be forced to approve £39bn Brexit bill ‘blindly’ as Theresa May and EU plan to publish vague outline deal to finalise divorce – The Sun
  • …Michael Gove would back ‘blind Brexit’ – ITV
  • David Cameron thinks Michael Gove is a ‘lunatic’ and blames him for Brexit defeat, says ex-PM’s friends – The Sun

More than half of Brits want UK-only passport queues at airports after Brexit

More than half of Brits support UK-only passport queues at airports after Brexit, a poll found. Fifty-one per cent agreed with the idea. More than half of Brits support UK-only passport queues at airports after Brexit, a YouGov poll has found. That soared to 68 per cent among Brexiteers.Forty per cent of Remain supporters also gave it the thumbs-up despite many mocking it previously. Christine Elmer, who wanted to stay in the EU, had tweeted: “This is stupid. Do they think we need to feel special?” Another whinged: “Wow, blue passports and an imperialist passport queue. The benefits of Brexit.” YouGov asked 5,371 people: “Post-Brexit, would you prefer British passport holders only queues at the airports?”. Only  19 per cent said they would not. – The Sun

Brexit campaigner fined £250 for writing wrong date on a form gets his own back by paying in pennies

A Brexit campaigner has got his own back on the Electoral Commission – by handing in his fine in pennies. David Banks from Veterans for Britain was investigated by the group about his referendum activities, and all they could fine him for was putting the wrong date down on a form. He was subject to four investigations by the group – which oversees elections and regulates political finance in the UK. And he worked on fighting the claims alongside juggling a job and taking care of his dad. Today he got the last laugh, however, by handing over his £250 penalty in small change.  In a video from Politics UK, he can be seen dumping the whole bag on the floor before exiting the building. Two shocked staff try to hide their smirks too. – The Sun

Welsh Labour Leader candidate calls for a second referendum

Forcing a “deal or no deal” vote on the final Brexit agreement should be a priority of the next first minister, one of the candidates has said.Ogmore AM Huw Irranca-Davies believes whoever takes over should put the demand to the prime minister on behalf of the people of Wales. – BBC News

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Lies, damned lies, and Mark Carney’s statistics on Brexit

The Governor of the Bank of England made two Pinocchio assertions on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. One was categorically false; the other was sophistry dressed in pseudo-science. Both give credence to Remainer canards. They therefore become political instruments. Mr Carney stated – perhaps unconsciously lapsing into a Kensington dinner party view – that the UK had fallen to the bottom of the G7 growth league. This claim is repeated so widely, and so often, that it has taken on the status of established fact. Many Brexiteers assume it must be true. It is not true. The early evidence so far this year is that Brexit Britain is growing faster than France under Emmanuel Macron, the Gallic wunderkind supposedly reviving animal spirits and unleashing the floods investment. Would you ever have any inkling of that reading a certain pink newspaper or listening to our national broadcaster?  – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Telegraph (£)

  • The City’s resilience after Brexit could be bad news for the EU – Matthew Lynn for The Spectator
  • Brussels terror of Brexit raises Project Fear to extremes. – John Redwood MP for The Commentator

Stewart Jackson: Theresa May is backing herself into a disastrous blind alley

The abject capitulation of Chequers has hugely rankled and its duplicitous gestation more so but with the jettisoning of the “just about managing/burning injustices” agenda, there’s an uncomfortable sense of déjà vu among thoughtful party members.A lack of vision, fractious ill-discipline in parliament, a humiliating supplication to the EU, inattention to core issues like crime and immigration (now who was in charge for most of the last eight years?) in favour of gimmicks (the war on straws is the new cones hotline?), the voters discounting economic

prosperity as a given – yes, it’s back to the John Major future, circa 1994. – The Times (£)

  • David Davis’s former aide Stewart Jackson slams No 10 over “Hotel California Chequers” agreement – City A.M
  • David Davis’ closest aide blasts Theresa May over her ‘Hotel California’ Brexit vision – The Sun

Bernard Jenkin: Claims of post-Brexit border chaos are just intended to frighten MPs

Apparently, a ‘no-deal’ Brexit will take away your sandwiches (BBC Newsnight), deny diabetics their insulin (UK Medicines Regulator), cause civil unrest (Amazon), as Kent becomes a lorry park (HMG), because all goods travelling between the UK and the EU will be stopped and inspected. Now Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has joined in, crashing the value of the pound with his comments. – Bernard Jenkin MP for the Telegraph (£)

Priti Patel: It’s time to be brave and choose the open sea once again

It is time to be positive and believe in Britain.  It‘s not too late to save Brexit although it may be too late without a change in attitude and a willingness to engage in a meaningful discussion about our future without rancour or emotion.  We need to get past Remain versus Leave – past the endless refighting of the referendum – and the latest version of Project Fear and show genuine political courage and leadership. The question before us is simple: Does the Chequers Agreement reflect the result of the EU referendum and provide for our future economic prosperity? By any reasonable standard the Chequers Agreement fails.  It will leave us half in and half out, still bound to EU regulations and constraints. The worst of both worlds – effectively out of Europe but still run by Europe. How can the Chequers Agreement be part our political future? We joined an economic union in 1973 as six countries became nine. Since then the EU has morphed beyond all recognition to become an “ever deeper” political project of 28 countries.   – Priti Patel for the Telegraph (£)

James Forsyth: Theresa May needs a Brexit back-up plan

Since Chequers, the UK has been making a big diplomatic push to try and move the Brexit talks along. As I say in The Sun this morning, this has had some success. Inside government, the view is that the chances of a deal are inching up. There is also cautious optimism that the British message on the Irish backstop, that a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom is unacceptable, has finally been understood.But Mrs May hasn’t had a breakthrough yet. There is no sign of the European Commission moving away from its position that the four freedoms of the single market can’t be separated.- James Forsyth for The Spectator

David Blunkett: It’s my people who voted for Brexit. To call them racist is wrong and divisive

Peter Mandelson is wrong: the British people were simply tired of decades of neglectPeter, now Lord, Mandelson and I have three things in common. Obviously, we’re both members of the House of Lords. Both of us were architects of New Labour (albeit in Peter’s case more prominently than in mine). And we are both better at giving other people advice than we are at taking it ourselves.It is this third point that has made me think about the words used by Peter last week when he suggested that many supporters of Brexit were “nationalists” who “hate other countries” and “hate foreigners”. – David Blunkett for the Telegraph (£)

Jeremy Warner: With Brexit nearing, Bank of England takes a stab in the dark on interest rates

We live in an age of disillusionment with established institutions and elites, so it is perhaps somewhat surprising to find that the Bank of England manages to score relatively well in terms of public trust.Now obviously, public satisfaction with the Bank has declined quite a bit since the financial crisis, but a recent Edelman poll found that those who trusted the Bank still outnumber those who did not by more than 30pc. – Jeremy Warner for the Telegraph (£)

The Telegraph: Why won’t Theresa May negotiate from strength?

The Government’s approach to the Brexit negotiations contains a fundamental flaw: there is no Plan B. The “no deal” scenario ought to be the Plan B, and could be if it was properly and visibly bankrolled, and if the Government convinced everyone that, though it would be a challenge, it could also be an opportunity. Instead, whatever preparations are taking place are near-invisible, while the rhetoric around “no deal” suggests the apocalypse: no medicine, no food. Emmanuel Macron must look at Theresa May and wonder if he is speaking to a negotiator or a beggar.- The Telegraph editorial (£)

Christian May: The real threat is the call for a second referendum

There’s a lot of talk around about “our democracy being under threat.” This alarmist claim is thrown around by people who are still fighting the Brexit referendum – many of whom are convinced that Leave only prevailed thanks to Russian disinformation, nefarious online campaigns and dodgy money. Guardian columnists, keyboard warriors and a handful of MPs who are smart enough to know better are pushing the line, not exclusively linked to Brexit with a distinct anti-Brexit flavour – that fake news and online polarisation risk shattering our democratic foundations – and something must be done. – Christian May for City A.M.

Katy Balls: Michel Barnier attempts to reassert his Brexit red lines

This morning a number of reports in the papers prompted talk of a small breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Among them, the Financial Times – a paper not known for always seeing the sunny side of the referendum result – reported that the mood in Brussels was changing with the EU now more willing to ‘fudge’ certain aspects of the negotiations in order to avoid no deal. With Theresa May en route to visit Emmanuel Macron at his holiday retreat tomorrow in the south of France, things appeared to be looking up for No 10.- Katy Balls for The Spectator

David Blake: Singapore wouldn’t accept EU vassalage, and neither should we

I have just returned from Singapore and I am amazed by what I saw. This is a country that has grown itself out of poverty by embracing free trade. In 1960, its per capita GDP was below $3,500. It is now above $55,000, almost 4.5 times the world average. As they prepare for their 53rd independence day celebrations on 9 August, Singaporeans are proud of their country and their independence. There is no litter, no begging and no graffiti. Their social housing is world class, as is their transport infrastructure and schooling. – David Blake for the Telegraph (£)

Comment in Brief

  • All hail Theresa May for finding something both Brexiteers and Eurocrats agree on – Christopher Booker for the Telegraph.
  • We’ve nothing to fear from a world‑trade Brexit – Matt Ridley for the Times
  • Beware the draft Withdrawal Agreement – John Redwood’s Diary
  • We cannot let MPs use a fake news panic to delegitimise democracy – Charlie Peters for the Telegraph (£)
  • Andrew Woodcock: we need a second referendum – Andrew Woodcock for CommentCentral
  • Brexit polls can tell you whatever you want to hear – Matt Singh  for CapX
  • Six reasons for the EU’s existential crisis  – Graeme Leach for City A.M.
  • Small States, Britain and the EU – Philip Towle for Briefings for Brexit
  • Establishment Elite v The Rest Of Us – the new political divide – Michael St George for ConservativeWoman
  • The perils of a post-Brexit diplomatic vacuum – Andrew O’Brien for CommentCentral
  • A Modest Proposal for Brexit: Turning the tables on the EU – Briefings For Brexit for Reaction
  • No Deal: Trade and Regulations – James Arnell for Briefings for Brexit
  • Boris would be a fool to think he’s on top – Matthew Parris for The Times (£)
  • What Price Hard Brexit When It (Inevitably) Comes? By Robin Dunbar – Robin Dunbar for Briefings for Brexit
  • Inside the minds of the Conservative grassroots – Mark Wallace for ConservativeHome
  • Small States, Britain and the EU – Philip Towle for Briefings for Brexit
  • Like Peel versus the Corn Laws, the Conservative Party must use Brexit to slash the cost of living – Nat Wei for Conservative Home
  • Juncker and Barnier have made me rethink my Remain vote – Averil Burgess for the Spectator
  • The Remainiac solution to Brexit – sack the voters – Laura Perrins for ConservativeWoman
  • Grit your (rotting) teeth – Project Fear is about to get still scarier – Laurence Hodge for ConservativeWoman

News in Brief

  • No Deal Brexit Warnings Like ‘Unnecessary’ Millennium Bug Fears, Says Tory Brexiteer – Huffington Post
  • Theresa May confident of reaching Brexit deal, sources say – Guardian
  • Angela Merkel ally backs second Brexit vote – Telegraph (£)
  • Risk of no deal Brexit ‘uncomfortably high’ – Carney – Sky News
  • Did Parliament do anything that wasn’t Brexit-related this year? – BBC News
  • Lord Mandelson: Brexiteers are nationalists who hate foreigners, not patriots like me – Telegraph (£)
  • Downing Street shoots down Liam Fox’s prediction that a no deal Brexit is now more likely – The Sun
  • May meets Macron to find way through Brexit impasse – SkyNews
  • UK trade minister Fox says EU is pushing Britain to no-deal Brexit – Reuters
  • Newsletter to subscribers – August 5th 2018 – Briefings for Brexit
  • Britain ‘odds-on’ to crash out of the EU without a deal claims Liam Fox as he blasts Brussels for stalling Brexit talks – The Sun
  • Welsh Labour leader hopeful calls for new Brexit referendum – ITV
  • Jersey’s Customs will be ‘ready for whatever is thrown at them’ when the UK leaves the European Union – Jersey Evening Post
  • France ‘loses out’ on Brexit billions: Belgian and Dutch ports picked for new Irish route – Express