Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Theresa May urges EU to buy into her ‘ambitious’ post-Brexit vision… Theresa May has urged the EU to get on with discussing her “ambitious but practical” vision for economic relations with the UK after Brexit. The prime minister told the BBC’s Andrew Marr the “right deal for us will be the right deal for them too”. She said she was confident of a deal while accepting the UK could not expect the same market access in some areas. But the CBI said there were some “big holes” in the UK’s plan and action was needed to stop firms moving. Conservative MPs have largely welcomed the PM’s speech on Friday, in which she set out what she said were “the hard facts” on Brexit and the reality that neither side could have exactly what it wanted from the negotiations. – BBC News Theresa May says ‘it’s important to be straight with people’ as she defends her blunt ‘Road to Brexit’ speech – The Sun Theresa May says the UK will ditch passporting because it makes the City a “rule-taker” – City A.M. May defends stance on post-Brexit financial services rules – Reuters PM’s Brexit plan to be put to the test as negotiations resume in Brussels – Belfast Telegraph EU set to expose differences with Theresa May in draft Brexit guidelines – Guardian Brussels will have role in setting migration system, says Theresa May – Times (£) Theresa May’s vow for key industries to stay aligned with the EU have cooled a Tory uprising – The Sun Theresa May warns Brussels that any trade deal punishing the City could starve EU firms of crucial cash – The Sun It’s in everyone’s interest for Britain’s financial services to continue trading in the EU – Europe’s businesses rely on the City – The Sun editorial > On BrexitCentral’s YouTube: Theresa May’s post-Mansion House speech Andrew Marr interview …as Brussels prepares to take hard line on free trade deals The European Commission is preparing to take a hard line over plans to “roll over” 50 EU free trade agreements during the Brexit transition period, in a threat to British exports. The Telegraph understands that UK and EU negotiators will meet in Brussels this week for crunch talks on how Britain can still benefit from EU’s free trade deals after Brexit when it is no longer legally a full member of the EU. Sources with knowledge of the talks said significant gaps remain between the two sides. Under plans being discussed by the European Commission, the EU would simply send a diplomatic letter, or “note verbale”, telling its trade partners that the UK will be bound to follow EU law – but leave it open as to whether those partners granted reciprocal access to the UK. – Telegraph (£) EU will offer Britain a Canada-style trade deal unless Theresa May abandons her ‘red lines’ – Telegraph (£) Dublin casts doubt on UK’s latest Irish border plan The EU is unlikely to accept the UK’s latest proposal for avoiding a “hard border” on the island of Ireland after Brexit, the Irish government has said. Theresa May has said 80% of firms would face no new customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and others would be simplified. But Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said he was not sure it would adequately protect the EU’s market. The proposal, he said, was a “starting point” for talks not a solution. The British prime minister has ruled out the return of physical infrastructure on the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019, insisting that this commitment was “absolutely clear”. – BBC News Sinn Féin set for Brexit talks with EU chief – BBC News Coveney: UK’s soft border plan could damage single market – Times (£) > On BrexitCentral’s YouTube: Republic of Ireland’s Deputy PM Simon Coveney on Theresa May’s Brexit speech Labour accused of plotting with EU officials to keep UK in customs union… A dossier compiled by the Conservatives suggests senior Labour figures have been working closely with members of the European Commission to force Britain to stay under Brussels rule in a customs union. The claim, which has been strongly denied by Labour, follows concerns that Jeremy Corbyn last week timed his speech on Brexit to coincide with a document produced by Michel Barnier which demanded Britain stayed in a customs union or separated Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK… The dossier points to European Commission documents showing that Mr Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, registered three meetings with Jeremy Corbyn since July last year… The Tory dossier notes: “During this time, Labour’s position on Brexit has ‘evolved’ dramatically to now ensure the UK cannot have an independent trade policy after Brexit.” – Express …as Tory rebels hint at climbdown over bid to keep UK in a customs union Pro-EU Conservative rebels have hinted at a climbdown on their bid to keep the UK in a customs union with the bloc. Nicky Morgan said the Prime Minister had signalled she was in “exactly” the same place on their concerns while Sarah Wollaston said a Commons showdown would likely be put off. The MPs were on a collision course with the PM over an amendment to the Trade Bill, tabled by Anna Soubry, which aimed to keep the UK in ‘a’ customs agreement with the EU. – PoliticsHome > On BrexitCentral’s YouTube: IDS vs Lord Mandelson on trade Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington warns MPs of ‘danger’ in voting down final Brexit deal David Lidington has said it would be “dangerous” for the Commons to not back the final deal on Brexit, days after John Major called for MPs to use their “own conscience”. The former prime minister said the issue of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU had become the most “divisive” political issue of his lifetime and said the option for a second referendum on the outcome of negotiations should remain open. Theresa May’s de-facto deputy PM slapped down Mr Major’s suggestion however, insisting the Prime Minister would expect the Government and Tory MPs to back the deal. – PoliticsHome Nicola Sturgeon refuses to commit to EU Withdrawal Bill Nicola Sturgeon has refused to commit to support the EU Withdrawal Bill saying no first minister “worth their salt” would agree to support it in its current form. The legislation – designed to transpose EU law into British law so the same rules apply on the day of Brexit as the day before – will see EU responsibilities in devolved areas initially transferred to Westminster. Both the Scottish and Welsh governments have said they cannot recommend that legislative consent is given to the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill as it stands. The UK Government said the legislation will allow common frameworks to be created ahead of further devolution but devolved governments say it amounts to a power grab and must be amended. – i News How doom-mongers got Brexit wrong: Gloomy Treasury forecasts that say the UK’s exit from the EU would be an economic disaster are ‘flawed’ Gloomy Treasury forecasts that predict Brexit will be an economic disaster are ‘flawed’, Cambridge researchers warn today. A study by the university’s Centre for Business Research raises serious questions over predictions by government officials, academic bodies, the IMF and the OECD. They say most estimates of the economic impact of the Leave vote are based on modelling that exaggerates the negative effects. The study, published today, is titled How the Economics Profession Got it Wrong on Brexit and says Treasury forecasts before and after the referendum were too pessimistic. Researchers say the assumption about the degree of uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote was arbitrary and wrong. – Daily Mail Victory for Eurosceptic, populist parties shocks the establishment in Italian election Italian voters have flocked to anti-establishment, Eurosceptic parties and rejected mainstream, traditional political parties, the latest results from the country’s election indicated on Monday. The populist Five Star Movement, founded by stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo as a bombastic challenge to the established order, emerged as the big winner of the general election, in a result that will be viewed with trepidation in Brussels. With around half the ballot counted, it looked as though the Five Star Movement had won around a third of all votes, up from 25 per cent in Italy’s last general election in 2013. – Telegraph Populist Five Star Movement wins largest share of vote in Italian election, exit poll indicates – Telegraph Whatever happens in this election, Italy has fallen out of love with the EU – Luigi Scazzieri for the Telegraph (£) Brussels watches Italian election nervously – Bruno Waterfield for the Times (£) Merkel secures fourth term after Social Democrats back ‘grand coalition’ Angela Merkel will be proposed for a fourth term as German chancellor today after Social Democratic Party (SPD) members voted in favour of a new coalition with her conservatives. The centre-left party’s rank-and-file voted by 66 per cent — more than expected — for the “grand coalition” in a postal ballot. Mrs Merkel is not expected to serve a full four-year term but to hand over at some point after the halfway stage, when there will be a review of the progress of the coalition. Her return was welcomed by President Macron as “good news for Europe” after nearly six months of paralysis in Berlin in which reforms of the European Union championed by France have been put on hold. – Times (£) Germany now has stability – but for how long? – Telegraph editorial EU’s financial regulation power grab is criticised by City minister The City minister has hit out at proposals in Brussels to beef up regulation of financial markets, which could burden the City of London with more red tape after Brexit. The EU is finalising proposals that would give its regulators a raft of new powers, including the right to raid financial services firms in Britain during any transition period. The three watchdogs, the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs), will be given extra firepower at a time when Britain will be stripped of EU voting rights and be powerless to stop the changes. The extra cash is set to be levied in large part from City firms. – Telegraph UK manufacturers on course to outpace GDP growth, survey finds Britain’s manufacturers are set to outpace the rest of the economy this year with help from booming global demand for exports, according to a survey showing British firms started the year on a strong note. According to the manufacturers’ organisation EEF and the accountancy firm BDO, factory output is on course to increase by 2% this year – beating the 1.5% GDP growth forecast for the wider economy. There have been fears over slowing activity in the manufacturing sector in recent weeks as concerns mount over Brexit and the value of the pound. But the EEF and BDO said factory output and total orders had remained in “very positive territory” at the start of the year. – Guardian David Jones: Why we must all now ready ourselves for no deal – and WTO terms By any measure, the Prime Minister’s speech at the Mansion House last Friday was a remarkable achievement. In my book, it was the best she has made, better even than Lancaster House last year. A measure of its strength was that it was welcomed from across the spectrum of Conservative opinion, receiving praise from both Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nicky Morgan. The speech was notable for its realistic appraisal of the negotiating challenge that the UK faces in securing the sort of “deep and comprehensive” free trade agreement it seeks with the EU, whilst striking the optimistic tone that many Brexiteers feel has hitherto been absent from Government messaging on the post-withdrawal future. – David Jones MP for ConservativeHome > On BrexitCentral’s YouTube: Former Tory leader Lord Howard on a no-deal scenario Robert Colvile: Heseltine and Blair do more harm than good to Remain “Tories’ Brexit unity fades,” ran the front-page headline of The Observer yesterday, “as Heseltine slams May’s speech.” The first half had me intrigued. The second made me laugh out loud. The striking thing about the Tory response to May’s latest big speech on Brexit, after all, has been the overwhelming positivity: everyone from Anna Soubry to Jacob Rees-Mogg has found aspects to welcome. That may be a sign of tough choices deferred by the PM, or insufficient attention to details from her audience, but the unity is nonetheless real. Yet the hilarious aspect of that headline was its invocation of Michael Heseltine. A few months ago, I interviewed Hezza for a podcast. Within a minute, he was assailing Brexit as “the most catastrophic decision that has been made in British domestic politics in my lifetime”. The only speech he could ever welcome would start: “We’ve made a mistake, and we’re very, very sorry.” – Robert Colvile for the Times (£) Dominic Lawson: How shaming that two former PMs obsessed with a fake row over Ireland have become Brussels’ useful idiots During the referendum campaign, David Cameron was ridiculed when he declared that Britain leaving the EU could put the Continent of Europe at risk of war. No one believed it: probably not even Cameron. But now those leading the campaign to thwart Theresa May honouring the result of that referendum are using the threat of civil war to terrify us. Specifically, they claim Brexit will create a ‘hard border’ between Northern Ireland (outside the EU) and the Republic of Ireland (inside it), and that this could somehow provoke ‘the men of violence’ to return to terrorism. – Dominic Lawson for the Daily Mail Brendan O’Neill: How much more flak, abuse and colonial-style interference must we put up with from Brussels? Where is the British lion, or at least the British bulldog, who will stand up to Brussels? It is hard to recall any time over the past 50 years when British swagger has been as necessary as it is now. And yet it is in desperately short supply.The bureaucrats and goons of Brussels are treating Britain like an uppity colony.They mock us. They tell us we will be a backwater if we wriggle free of their rules. A chuckling Jean-Claude Juncker recently said he would be a better Prime Minister than Theresa May. Like any of us would vote for this tyrannical technocrat who once boasted about being “insufficiently democratic” and who justified not telling the Greeks the whole truth about EU austerity measures by saying: “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” They’re humiliating us. And how is our political class responding?Less like bulldogs than poodles. We don’t have lions — we have lemmings. – Brendan O’Neill for The Sun Juliet Samuel: The PM is out of options: however we Brexit, someone will have to be betrayed At last. On Friday, Theresa May gave the outlines of a coherent Brexit framework, having finally steered her Cabinet into a decision of sorts. It is likely to prove impossible to negotiate this outcome with an increasingly belligerent EU and, if so, our Government still doesn’t know what it will do. Mrs May, however, will not be the one to find out. Instead, this year will be spent dealing with the fallout of her decision in December to make a commitment on Ireland whose knock-on effects, as it is now finding, are constitutionally enormous. Encouraged by Labour and the CBI, the EU and Dublin seem to believe that the Irish border can be used as a doorstop, wedging Britain firmly inside the customs union. Unbelievable as it may seem to many Brexiteers, they could well be right. – Juliet Samuel for the Telegraph (£) Katy Balls: Michael Heseltine’s lone Brexit intervention highlights the Tories’ new-found unity Was Theresa May’s big Brexit speech simply a string of ‘phrases, generalisations and platitudes’? That’s the claim from Michael Heseltine over the weekend. The Conservative peer made the Observer front page with an attack that’s said to break the Tories’ short-lived Brexit unity. He says May’s pitch on Friday fell flat as it only ‘set out the cherries that Britain wants to pick’ and complains that rightwing Tory MPs held ‘a knife to her throat’. But if anything, Heseltine’s lone criticism highlights the Tories’ newfound unity over Brexit. If you’d told Theresa May this time last week that the most prominent Tory to criticise her plans after her speech would be Heseltine – a man she previously sacked over Brexit – I doubt she would have believed you. Given that the Tory peer has suggested he’d prefer a Corbyn government to Brexit, it’s hard to see what (other than ‘Brexit is cancelled’) May could have said to win him round. – Katy Balls for the Spectator Diane Abbott: While the Tories bicker, Labour has a positive vision for Brexit The main dynamic in British politics is that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour is preparing for government while Theresa May’s Conservatives are focused solely on avoiding a schism on Europe. We are focused on a first 5-year term. Their aim is getting to the end of each week. This was glaringly obvious in the two speeches that book-ended last week. Corbyn led on Labour’s policy to participate in a customs union with the European Union post-Brexit. By contrast, Theresa May set out another five conditions for the UK’s future relationship with the EU. There was nothing positive of substance in her speech at all. This matters. All politics must be about what you are in favour of, not simply what you are against. – Diane Abbott for the Times (£) Brexit in brief How Gibraltar learned to stop fearing Brexit – David Torrance for the Herald Britain should not be lumped in with China as a target of Donald Trump’s tariffs – Telegraph editorial From London to Madrid and Lisbon, the City’s success can be felt across Europe – Charles Bowman for City A.M. EU nationals ‘to lose their right to vote in post-Brexit indyref2’ – The National French TV urged to broadcast programmes in English with subtitles – Telegraph Theresa May tells Donald Trump not to launch trade war – Times (£) Alcohol bill will violate treaty, say EU countries – Times (£) Brexit: EU banker bonus cap could stay – Times (£) Conference to look at future of ports post-Brexit – Portsmouth News