Theresa May woos Brexiteers but still faces defeat in a third vote on her deal: Brexit News for Monday 18 March

Theresa May woos Brexiteers but still faces defeat in a third vote on her deal: Brexit News for Monday 18 March
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Theresa May woos Brexiteers but still faces defeat in a third vote on her deal…

Theresa May secured the backing of some staunch Brexiteers for her deal after personally lobbying MPs but last night remained significantly short of the number she needs to win a vote this week. Esther McVey, the former work and pensions secretary who quit over Brexit, confirmed her support yesterday after hinting late last week that she could back the deal. Charlie Elphicke, a member of the European Research Group and former whip, also suggested that he could vote for the deal but linked his support to Mrs May standing down before the next stage of EU negotiations. As the prime minister moved to win over more opponents, she was told that some of those who had pledged support could withdraw it if she did not get the Democratic Unionist Party onside. She will receive a significant boost today when Lord Trimble, who tried to take the government to court over her deal, says that she has secured substantive changes that would limit the impact of the Irish backstop. Yet the prime minister looks likely to fall short of the number needed to win her third attempt at a meaningful vote, which could come tomorrow. Cabinet ministers said that the vote should be delayed if another defeat was expected. It is thought that about 15 Tory MPs could switch to support Mrs May’s deal. – The Times (£)

…as she tells Tory MPs ‘Back my Brexit or we’ll never leave’…

Theresa May will tell Conservative MPs this week to back her or risk never leaving the EU, after she was warned that if her Brexit deal falls, parliament would have the power to delay the UK’s departure indefinitely. The prime minister will tell Brexiteers they have until Thursday to support her or risk a “collective political failure” in the form of a “Hotel California Brexit” where “you can check out, but you can never leave”. Advice from officials, leaked to The Sunday Times, says that if the deal fails to pass and the prime minister is forced to request an extension of article 50, Britain would have to hold EU elections and MPs would then be able to impose limitless delays on departure from the EU. The warning comes as senior Eurosceptics signalled they may swing behind the deal. Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, told friends that Brexiteers should “jump together” if the Democratic Unionist Party supports the deal. In a further boost for May, Matthew Elliott, one of the architects of the leave campaign, urged MPs to get behind her. Writing in The Sunday Times, he said: “If MPs vote down the withdrawal agreement for a third time this week, Brexit probably won’t happen. But if MPs do allow the vote to pass, we will leave in a matter of weeks . . . We will be free from the EU’s political institutions by the summer.” – The Times (£)

…although her phone calls to wavering rebels prompted them to tell her to resign

Conservative MPs have told Theresa May and her aides in phone calls and meetings over the weekend that she must publicly commit to standing down as prime minister to secure their votes for her Brexit deal. As Downing Street struggles to persuade enough rebel MPs to back May’s withdrawal agreement in time for the third meaningful vote scheduled for Tuesday, a group of 40 backbenchers have warned they will not vote for the deal unless she agrees to step aside so a new PM lead the next stage of Brexit negotiations. In conversations with May, her senior advisers in Number 10 and chief whip Julian Smith on Saturday and Sunday, details of which have been shared with BuzzFeed News, MPs on both the Remain and Leave wings of the Tory party said the price for getting the deal through is her departure. May was told in direct terms by several MPs in one-on-one phone calls on Sunday that she should make a pact promising to resign if her deal passes, a source familiar with the conversations said. In one of the phone calls, a former cabinet minister who last week swapped sides to vote for the deal told May she would win round other rebels if she announced she is willing to go. A source familiar with the conversation said the PM reacted with “surprise” and “faux astonishment” at the idea of a resignation pact. Several MPs have contacted Graham Brady, the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, to urge him to tell May to make a public commitment that she will leave office after the deal passes. – BuzzFeed News

  • Theresa May’s resignation publicly demanded by MPs as price for backing withdrawal deal – Independent
  • As Theresa May warns Brexit is at risk, rebels lay out the price of their support – her resignation – iNews

Philip Hammond says there’ll be no new vote on May’s deal without DUP support…

The PM’s plan is expected to be voted on for a third time in the coming days. But Philip Hammond told the BBC’s Andrew Marr that it would only be put to MPs if “enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it”. He did not rule out a financial settlement for Northern Ireland if the DUP backed the deal. The party, which has 10 MPs in the Commons, negotiated £1bn in spending for Northern Ireland as part of a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories – giving the government a working majority. Mr Hammond said they did not have the numbers “yet” to secure Mrs May’s deal, adding: “It is a work in progress”. – BBC News

  • Theresa May will cancel Brexit deal vote if she does not believe she can win it, ministers reveal – Telegraph (£)

…as the DUP reportedly demand a seat at future EU trade talks as price for backing the deal…

Theresa May has appealed to MPs’ “patriotism” and urged them to cast aside their differences by voting for her Brexit deal to save her premiership. In a bid to stave off a third heavy defeat, the Prime Minister writes in the Sunday Telegraph that MPs must “stand together as democrats and patriots” and support her Withdrawal deal. MPs are likely to vote on the deal for the third time on Tuesday or Wednesday. However, remainers are also plotting to scupper her Brexit plan with Labour planning to back a backbench amendment calling for a referendum on Mrs May’s deal. The Sunday Telegraph can disclose that the Prime Minister’s team was in negotiations in London with DUP leaders Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds over a two-part plan to win their support. The first part is a guarantee the EU will not treat Northern Ireland and Britain differently in terms of the customs union and single market after Brexit. The second is that DUP MPs will be “deeply involved” in the UK Government negotiating team over the future trade deal with the EU. Mr Dodds told The Sunday Telegraph: “We are determined that Brexit should happen in accordance with the referendum result but the only way it can happen which is acceptable to us is if the United Kingdom is treated as one. The Government is now focused on this key issue but political statements or pledges are not enough.” – Telegraph (£)

…with the Chancellor insisting that talks with the DUP are about ‘political reassurance’ not funding

Philip Hammond has rejected claims the Government is offering extra cash to Northern Ireland to get the DUP to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The Chancellor said “that’s not where the discussion has been at all”, although he acknowledged that funding issues would come up in the forthcoming spending review. Mr Hammond, who was involved in talks with DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds on Friday, said the discussions had focused on preventing a regulatory border in the Irish Sea.  Persuading the 10 DUP MPs to back the deal is viewed as crucial by ministers as they believe allaying the unionists’ concerns about the Irish backstop will help swing Tory Eurosceptics behind the Prime Minister. One option being considered is a “Stormont lock” written into law so that any new regulations imposed on Northern Ireland would either be adopted by the entire UK or not at all, the Sunday Times reported. Mr Dodds is also reportedly looking for a cut in air passenger duty, which is lower in the Republic of Ireland than Northern Ireland. – Belfast Telegraph

Hammond says a ‘short extension’ will be needed even if PM’s deal passes…

There will have to be a “short extension” to the UK’s departure date from the EU, even if MPs back Theresa May’s deal, the chancellor says. Philip Hammond told the BBC’s Andrew Marr it was now “physically impossible” for the UK to leave on 29 March and a delay was needed to pass legislation. He also warned the deal might not go to a third Commons vote without more support from the DUP and other MPs. Mr Hammond told Andrew Marr: “If the prime minister’s deal is able to muster a majority this week and get through, then we will need a short extension. “It is physically impossible to leave on 29 March, but we would be able to leave very soon. “But if we are unable to do that – if we are unable to bring a majority together to support what in my view is a very good deal for Britain – then we will have to look at a longer extension and we are in unchartered territory.” Asked if the third so-called “meaningful vote” on the deal would definitely be returning to the Commons this week to seek such support, the chancellor said: “The answer to that is no – not definitely. We will only bring the deal back if we are confident that enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it so we can get it through Parliament. We are not just going to keep presenting it if we haven’t moved the dial.” – BBC News

  • Hammond fails three times to deny May has offered extra money to DUP to back Brexit deal – Express
  • Philip Hammond says it is ‘physically impossible’ for UK to leave EU on 29 March – City A/M.

> WATCH: Chancellor Philip Hammond discusses Brexit on The Andrew Marr Show

…while a lengthy Brexit delay is in prospect if May cannot secure support for her deal

Theresa May could duck a third Commons showdown on her Withdrawal Agreement, resulting in a long delay to Brexit unless Tory rebels fall in line. Cabinet ministers said another vote on the deal would not be held unless the prime minister was confident of overturning last week’s overwhelming defeat. Unless the 149-vote humiliation can be reversed, Mrs May would be forced to seek a lengthy extension to the Article 50 process, with the UK required to elect MEPs in May, Chancellor Philip Hammond said. Mrs May herself has warned of what Westminster insiders have dubbed a “Hotel California” Brexit where the UK can never leave. But in a warning of what was at stake, Mr Hammond added: “Clearly if we don’t get this deal through we are almost certainly going to have to fight a European parliamentary election, almost certainly going to have a longer extension, almost certainly not going to be able to gain access to the fiscal headroom I talked about in the Spring Statement.” – Irish News

Blocking May’s deal will alienate voters, Liam Fox tells Brexiteers

Liam Fox has warned his fellow Brexiteers that failing to back Theresa May’s deal would alienate voters because it would bring a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure from the European Union. The prime minister has said that it is for MPs to decide whether she asks for a short or a long delay when she meets the leaders of the EU 27 at a summit in Brussels on Thursday. If MPs have voted for her deal beforehand, she can ask for a short, technical extension. Otherwise, she has said that she would have to ask for a longer delay to Brexit, days before March 29, the date on which the UK is supposed to leave. Such a delay would mean Britain contesting European elections in May. As No 10 continued to try to build support for the deal, Dr Fox, the international trade secretary, warned of the consequences of not voting for it. He told Sophy Ridge On Sunday on Sky News: “I would say to my colleagues [that] all actions have consequences, and if you really want to deliver the Brexit we all promised . . . then we need to back the prime minister’s deal because there is no other deal on offer.” He added: “If we had an extension with no agreement and this was just kicking into the long grass with the chance that Brexit might not happen at all, that would be very, very hard for most people to swallow.” – The Times (£)

> WATCH: International Trade Secretary Liam Fox’s Interview on Sky News’ Ridge on Sunday

Esther McVey backs May’s ‘bad’ Brexit deal in a boost for the PM…

The former Work and Pensions Secretary – who quit the Government last year in protest at the blueprint – said she and other pro-Brexit MPs would “hold our nose” and back the “bad” agreement with Brussels. Ms McVey stormed out of the Cabinet in November over the backstop plan that could see the UK tied to EU rules indefinitely to ensure the Northern Irish border remains open after a no-deal Brexit. She said at the time: “The British people have always been ahead of politicians on this issue, and it will be no good trying to pretend to them that this deal honours the result of the referendum when it is obvious to everyone it doesn’t. We have gone from no deal is better than a bad deal, to any deal is better than no deal. I cannot defend this, and I cannot vote for this deal. I could not look my constituents in the eye were I to do that. I therefore have no alternative but to resign from the Government.” She also slammed fellow Cabinet ministers who she suggested had no integrity after they “crumbled” when presented with the deal. But appearing on the Sophy Ridge show on Sky News today, Ms McVey said she will be backing the deal when it comes before the Commons again this week because “the rules have all changed”. She argued that since a no-deal Brexit was taken off the table in a Commons vote this week, the Government would be unable to negotiate a better deal even if it secured a long delay from Brussels. “I still believe Theresa May’s deal is a bad deal but after the votes in the House last week that isn’t the option facing us any more,” she said. “No deal has been removed, Article 50 has been extended, the date was removed – so the choice is this deal or no Brexit whatsoever.” – PoliticsHome

…but says May should make a ‘dignified exit’ to get the deal through

Ms McVey said she would be willing to stand as next Conservative leader “if there were enough people who supported me”. The former Work and Pensions Secretary – who resigned over Mrs May’s handling of Brexit – was asked on BBC Radio 5 Live’s Pienaar’s Politics if it would be a good idea for the PM to confirm she will leave Number 10 by the summer. The MP for Tatton replied: “I think that what is best for her is, really only she knows, but what I do know is we as a party want to be able to thank her. “She needs a dignified departure so however that works best for her for all of the reasons I’ve said. She’s done so much to try and get this through, even though we’re not on the same side of the argument, we are Tories.” Conservative MP for Dover Charlie Elphicke said there needs to be “a change of leadership” in order for him to support the deal, telling BBC Sunday Politics South East we need “a new face and a new team to take us forward to the future relationship”. His comments come after fellow Tory Andrew Bridgen told The Sunday Times that he was informed by party whips that Mrs May was willing to announce her resignation to get her Withdrawal Agreement approved when it returns to the Commons for a third meaningful vote potentially this week. – Mirror

  • Theresa May should make a ‘dignified departure,’ says former Cabinet minister – Telegraph (£)

> WATCH: Former DWP Secretary Esther McVey’s Interview on Sky News’ Ridge on Sunday

It’s not too late for real change to the PM’s deal, writes Boris Johnson

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the leading Brexiteer says: “There is an EU summit this week. It is not too late to get real change to the backstop.” The backstop is a contingency plan for the Irish border, but has proved a sticking point in getting a final deal. The PM’s plan is expected to be voted on for a third time in the coming days. However, Chancellor Philip Hammond said it would only return to the Commons this week if it had support from many previously rebelling Tories and from the 10 MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party. The DUP has previously been very critical of the backstop plan, repeatedly saying it will not accept any additional Northern Ireland-only checks. Negotiations with the DUP, whose MPs prop up the Tory government, are expected to continue on Monday, although Downing Street said a formal meeting was not scheduled. Mr Johnson, writing in his weekly Daily Telegraph column, said that further changes were needed to the Irish backstop in Mrs May’s withdrawal deal to break the impasse in Parliament. He said the backstop arrangement left the UK vulnerable to “an indefinite means of blackmail” by the EU. “If we agree this deal – and unless we have a radical change in our approach to the negotiations – we face an even greater humiliation in the second phase,” he said. He added that the government should outline its strategy for talks on the future relationship with the EU to “reassure its understandably doubtful MPs by answering some basic questions about the next phase of the negotiations”. – BBC News

  • Boris Johnson urges May to make final appeal on backstop in blow to PM’s hopes of getting Brexit deal through – Telegraph (£)
  • Johnson calls for Theresa May to delay her vote and urges MPs to reject her plan if she doesn’t as he claims it hands the EU ‘an indefinite means of blackmail’ against the UK – Daily Mail

Theresa May turns to Vienna Convention for Brexit help…

There’s a new Brexit deal in the works: Britain will close its eyes if Europe bites its tongue. In a bid to get Theresa May’s deal over the line — and stop a Brexit delay of 21 months or longer — the U.K. government has turned to an obscure clause in an obscure international treaty to prove to hard-line Euroskeptics that there is a way out of the Irish backstop. With May’s Brexit deal likely to be voted on in the House of Commons this week for a third time, ahead of the prime minister traveling to Brussels on Thursday to seek an extension of Article 50 irrespective of whether or not her deal passes, London is looking for creative — some say dubious — ways to bring opponents on board. That’s where Article 62 of the Vienna Convention — a treaty that lays down the rules about international treaties, or legal agreements between countries — comes in. Under one option set out by the Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay, the U.K. could make a statement saying that if there are “unforeseen circumstances” arising from the implementation of the backstop, the U.K. would have the right to walk away. Barclay confirmed the U.K. is looking at this scenario in a parliamentary answer to Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg last week. – Politico

…as Good Friday Agreement architect Lord Trimble says substantive changes to the deal will limit the impact of the backstop

The Prime Minister’s deal has been rejected twice by MPs over concerns the UK would not have a way out of the Irish backstop without consulting the EU first. But former Northern Ireland first minister Lord Trimble has hinted changes secured with the EU have improved its chances of getting through the Commons. He said the Tory government had “succeeded in securing substantive changes that will affect and limit the impact of the Irish backstop”. The peer and historian Lord Bew said “widespread war weariness” could be another reason for the deal being more successful in its third vote. They wrote in a paper for the centre-right Policy Exchange think tank: “Not a word of Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement of November 2018, so heavily defeated twice in Parliament, has been changed. “But we are now closer to acceptance of the same agreement. “A widespread war weariness on all sides is a significant factor. “But the Government has succeeded in securing substantive changes that will affect and limit the impact of the Irish backstop, if it is ever put in place at the end of the transitional period. “The chances of the Prime Minister getting the deal through Parliament have improved. Lord Trimble won a Nobel Peace Prize for his role in securing the Good Friday Agreement peace agreement between the British and Irish governments in 1998. The former Ulster Unionist Party leader, who is now a Tory peer, had previously threatened to seek a judicial review of the Irish backstop in the Brexit deal. – Express

Jeremy Corbyn hints at fresh confidence motion if May’s Brexit deal is defeated again…

Jeremy Corbyn has indicated he could launch a fresh bid to oust Theresa May if her Brexit deal is rejected by MPs for a third time. The Labour leader said it would be “appropriate” to table another confidence motion in the Government at that point. Mr Corbyn also indicated that his party could back an amendment calling for a referendum on a Brexit deal, although he would not set out which side he would be on in another public vote. Appearing on Sky News’ Sophy Ridge On Sunday, he said: “The Government is apparently going to bring its proposals once again to Parliament this week. I suspect they will be defeated again. “The whole process they are doing is running down the clock. “I think at that point a confidence motion will be appropriate. At that point we should say there has to be a general election so the people of this country can decide ‘do they want a Labour government investing in people’s communities, dealing with inequality, injustice and having a relationship with Europe that protects jobs and guarantees our trade for the future?’” Pressed on whether a defeat on the third meaningful vote would be the trigger to launch a motion he said: “We will obviously decide the exact moment.” Mr Corbyn stressed that Labour was “not supporting Theresa May’s deal at all because we think it’s a blindfold Brexit which will actually do enormous damage to our economy”. – ITV News

  • Hardline Brexiteers could join forces with Labour MPs to oust Theresa May if Jeremy Corbyn calls another no-confidence motion – The Sun

…and says Labour are likely to back a public vote on May’s deal…

Labour’s tensions over Brexit look set to be exposed again this week, as the campaign for a second referendum reaches a moment of truth in parliament. Jeremy Corbyn appeared to signal on Sunday that his party would back an amendment aimed at securing a second Brexit referendum, set to be tabled this week – but also stressed that Labour had not ruled out tabling another vote of no confidence and still hoped to secure its own, softer Brexit deal. The Kyle-Wilson amendment was drawn up by two Labour MPs, Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, who consulted the shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, and the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, over the precise wording. If May’s deal were brought back to parliament this week, Corbyn suggested Labour was likely to support the amendment, in which approval of the deal would be made conditional on a “confirmatory ballot”. “I had a very good discussion with Phil Wilson and Peter Kyle last week and we went through what they’re trying to do, which is make sure people do have a say in the final matter, and that we agree with and support,” he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge. Asked if Labour would back it, he said: “If the amendment is as I’ve just set out, then we will be supporting it – but we’ve got to see the wording of it.” Starmer swiftly reiterated that he believed Labour should back the amendment, saying: “We must support the lock of a public vote.” – Guardian

…while hinting he could even back Leave in a second Brexit vote…

Jeremy Corbyn has suggested that he could vote to leave the European Union in a second Brexit referendum in an intervention that risks infuriating many of his supporters. Mr Corbyn has already made clear he would support a fresh public poll if his party could not secure its preferred Brexit deal. Yesterday, he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday that how he would vote would depend on what choices were on the ballot paper. He also said that voting for Brexit could unite the UK. He said: “It depends what the choice is in front of us. If we have got a good deal [on Brexit] . . . then that might be a good way forward that unites the country.” He said his party was likely to back an amendment calling for a referendum on a Brexit deal this week but would have to see the final wording. The leadership has been looking at an amendment being drafted by Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, two Labour backbenchers. – The Times (£)

> WATCH: Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Interview on Sky News’ Ridge on Sunday

…as he convenes cross-party talks aimed at breaking the Brexit deadlock

Jeremy Corbyn is to convene cross-party talks in parliament, in what the Labour leader claims is an effort to “find a consensus on Brexit”. It follows an interview with Sky News in which he said it would be “appropriate” to bring a fresh motion of no confidence against the government if the prime minister’s Brexit deal is rejected by MPs for a third time this week. Mr Corbyn will meet leaders of the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru on Monday, as well as chairs of the home affairs and Brexit select committees and proponents of the so-called “common market 2.0” proposal. In a statement, Mr Corbyn said: “She cannot keep bringing back an unchanged deal. It is ridiculous. She has got to recognise that we’ve got to do something different. “I’ve written to colleagues across parliament and invited them to meet me, Keir Starmer and shadow cabinet colleagues to discuss our credible proposals of a customs union, market access and guaranteeing rights and environmental and consumer protections. – Sky News

Irish Deputy PM Simon Coveney heads to Brussels amid Brexit impasse

Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney will meet his EU counterparts in Brussels on Monday as the Brexit impasse continues. Mr Coveney is in the Belgian capital to attend a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council where discussions on Moldova, China and Yemen are on the agenda. But the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is also likely to form part of the debate. The meeting comes ahead of a summit of EU leaders in Brussels later this week and amid mounting pressure on UK Prime Minister Theresa May to get MPs to back the Withdrawal Agreement deal in a third vote in the House of Commons this week. Mr Coveney told RTE News on Sunday: “If she’s asking for a longer extension I expect there will need to be a plan to go with that ask to convince EU partners that there is method behind that approach. “Presumably that will mean seeking time to build consensus around a new approach to Brexit coming from London but of course that brings with it a lot of uncertainty.” Irish premier Leo Varadkar will meet European Council president Donald Tusk in Dublin on Tuesday to consider any requests from the UK to delay Brexit. Meanwhile the Irish government continues to prepare for a no-deal scenario. – Belfast Telegraph

Senior SNP rebels urge Tory Brexiteers to back Theresa May’s deal

Two senior SNP figures including a former minister in Nicola Sturgeon’s government have issued an extraordinary joint plea to hardline Tory Brexiteers to reverse their opposition to Theresa May’s deal. Alex Neil, a former Health Minister, and Jim Sillars, the SNP’s former deputy leader, told the European Research Group (ERG) of Tory MPs that the deal “is the only thing” that ensures the UK will leave the EU. In a letter to the Telegraph, they warned the ERG that helping vote down the agreement a third time would merely “hand control to a Remain majority determined to keep us in the EU.” Although they admitted the Prime Minister’s agreement has “many defects”, they argued that it “recreates a sovereign state” and compares this with the UK’s current status as a “submissive EU component”. In a dig at Ms Sturgeon and her 35 Nationalist MPs, who have denounced the deal as disastrous, they said they were “among the many SNP Leave voters whose views have not been represented in the Commons debates.” – Telegraph (£)

Northern Ireland’s farmers urge DUP to back Brexit deal

Ivor Ferguson has farmed quietly in Northern Ireland’s County Armagh for decades. But Brexit has thrust him into the political battle in faraway Westminster. Like many other farmers and businesspeople in the region, he is rapidly losing patience with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party over its rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, which he sees as good for his business. As president of the Ulster Farmers’ Union, Mr Ferguson is campaigning to get the DUP to support Mrs May’s agreement. “By far the vast majority of our members support the prime minister’s deal,” he said. “We as farmers have bank managers to report to and that’s our main concern.” The support of the DUP’s 10 MPs is crucial to the prime minister’s effort to pass her disputed agreement in a third parliamentary vote. The party has twice voted against the deal, saying the so-called backstop to avert border checks is unacceptable because the region will have different trade rules to the rest of the UK. But many government supporters say that, if the DUP can be convinced to vote for the deal, dozens of Eurosceptic Conservatives will likely fall in behind it. Business and farm groups in Northern Ireland say that Mrs May’s agreement gives them an advantage in allowing them to trade freely within the UK and the EU. – FT(£)

Boris Johnson: To back the PM’s deal, we need proof that the next stage of Brexit talks will be radically different

Sometimes in politics you can face a dilemma so painful that the best thing can be to lay it out before your own constituency association, and ask for their advice. Last Friday I had the chance to do just that. By way of background, the Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative Association could not be remotely described as hardline. We are a diverse, thoughtful, metropolitan bunch of One Nation Tories. There are probably as many Remainers as Leavers. In consulting my association, I tried to frame the choice as neutrally as I could. There was a chance, I said, that the Government would ask parliament to vote for a third time on the Prime Minister’s EU Withdrawal Agreement. If such a vote took place, I had two options. I could either stick to my guns, or I could fold. I could continue to oppose a deal that I believe is detrimental to the interests of this country, in the sense that we risk becoming a kind of economic colony of Brussels. Or else I could compromise, and vote it through, on the grounds that there was now a real risk that Brexit would not happen at all – and in the hope that the many defects in the deal could be fixed later. I asked for a show of hands. I was struck by the near unanimity of the meeting. My constituents were strongly of the view that I should not compromise. They assured me that they would support whatever decision I took – but they believed I should continue to vote against the deal. – Boris Johnson MP for the Telegraph (£)

David Davis: I will vote for the PM’s deal — if we call in professionals to talk trade with the EU

Last week I voted for the prime minister’s Brexit deal even though I thought it was a poor deal. Indeed it was even worse than the one that I resigned in protest at. I would have preferred a no-deal outcome but the votes in parliament last week have ruled it out and the visible divisions in the cabinet mean the prime minister does not have the power to force a no-deal outcome. So the real risk is that the “remainer” establishment will block Brexit, a betrayal that would reap a democratic whirlwind. We should make it clear that while we do not wish to terminate the withdrawal agreement backstop, if the EU does not behave properly we will exercise our rights and leave. That approach puts a real duty on us to do the next stage right. Nobody could reasonably describe the UK’s current negotiating strategy as successful. It should change not only the negotiating team but also the whole negotiating strategy. This is now an industrial scale negotiation that cannot be run like a cottage industry out of the back rooms of No 10. We need at least 22 negotiating teams to run all the strands of the negotiation in parallel. We should use experienced trade negotiators in the key areas, not civil servants who are learning on the job. Most of all we should put the whole thing under proper political leadership of the relevant cabinet ministers, not have it run in secret by a Whitehall machine. On this basis the prime minister’s deal is capable of rescue and on that basis I would vote for it again. Judging by last week the alternative would be a cascade of chaos, eventually ending in a remainer attempt, first to delay Brexit by a long time and then reverse it. I have told the prime minister that in my judgment the government would not survive such an outcome, since it would have failed to deliver on the referendum, on our manifesto and on the most important issue affecting the destiny of our country in our generation.  – David Davis MP for the Telegraph (£)

Norman Lamont: History will never understand Tory MPs if they kill off Brexit

The third vote on Mrs May’s EU deal will be a truly agonising, painful dilemma for many Conservative MPs who have already voted twice against it. For them the disadvantages have been all too clear: the long period of European Court of Justice jurisdiction, the large Brexit bill, and above all the Irish backstop dividing our country and from which it may be difficult to exit. On the other hand, if the PM’s deal is rejected by the House of Commons, we may not leave the EU for many months and possibly not at all. The PM seems to have decided that since Parliament has rejected whatever she has been able to negotiate, she may have no choice but to follow wherever a majority can be found in the House of Commons. The logic of this means at best a soft Brexit, one in name only, and at worst no Brexit at all. The danger is that once we postpone our exit for the first time it may be the start of a process whereby it is postponed again and indefinitely. Above all, we will be removed from the main threat Eurosceptics have fought for so long – that of needless unnecessary political integration. That is the main prize. What is certain is that this opportunity will never happen again and history will not understand if it is Conservative MPs who prevent us reclaiming our self government. – Lord Lamont for the Daily Mail

George Eustice: The Brexit solution now? Not Norway Plus, but the EFTA pillar of the EEA

The actions of Parliament last week were a blow to the credibility of our democracy. We have signalled to the world that we are too scared to leave the EU without its permission, and we are about to send our Prime Minister to Brussels on her hands and knees to beg for an extension. However, for those like me who voted to leave without a deal if necessary, it is no good sobbing over the fact that we lost a line-out and that those who want to thwart the referendum result are running away with the ball. We need to regroup and get back in the game. We have been arguing about Brexit solidly for over three years now and our system cannot take another two years of this, especially if there is a long extension to article 50. What is needed now is a way to secure early closure on this debate and to expedite our departure from the EU. There is a simpler and swifter way to get out of the EU. We should rely on our existing legal rights and obligations as a signatory to the EEA. The UK is a party to that agreement in its own right, and the Government took a conscious decision last year not to give twelve months notice to leave the EEA, as is required under article 127 of that agreement. It was actually the UK that invented EFTA in 1959 at a time when there was a cross-party consensus that the political and democratic costs of EEC membership were unacceptably high. We initially built a coalition of seven countries including Ireland, Sweden and Spain.  Perhaps EFTA is not really the “Norway option” after all, but the red, white and blue Brexit that the Prime Minister once talked about. – George Eustice MP for ConservativeHome

Brian Monteith: We need to shut down the Withdrawal Agreement and reboot Brexit

There is a scene of intended subtle irony at the high point of tension in the blockbuster movie Skyscraper when Dwayne Johnson pleads with his wife to reset her tablet so the building’s sprinkler systems will switch on again and save it from collapsing in flames. We have all probably been in similar if less tense situations ourselves when we have had to restart our own phones, laptops, routers and televisions to get the infuriating things to work properly. No amount of fiddling about works, switch them off and on and often the problem is solved. This is where we are now with Brexit. If it is ever to be delivered at all the process needs to be rebooted. This week there is likely to be a third opportunity for MPs to pass the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement so she can claim we are leaving the EU after all, if only at the end of June rather than the end of March as she personally “guaranteed”. Those MPs that believe Brexit is desirable and wish to achieve it should vote it down again – and they should vote it down at each and every opportunity it is presented for endorsement. I know there are a growing number of MPs that have voted against the Withdrawal Agreement in the past who are now changing their minds and reluctantly (with a heavy heart, etc.) supporting it in the hope they can deal with its problems afterwards. They just want to get over the line and “leave” on 29th March, intending to claim they have met their promises on Brexit. I believe they are well meaning but through desperation are naively being taken in or are fooling themselves. – Brian Monteith for The Scotsman

Chloe Westley: The EU, the Commons – and last week’s votes. The people should fire the MPs who won’t follow their instructions

The European Union is democratically flawed and vulnerable to corruption. Even some of the most passionate EU apologists would accept this. Instead, they have argued that it must be reformed from within, and that, by remaining in this failing institution, Britain could somehow radically change the culture and structure of its institutions. British voters, however, disagreed. A supranational bureaucracy, which assumes power over policy areas previously controlled by national governments, could never be free from corruption or accountable to voters. Those elected to represent Britain in the EU Parliament had so little power to influence the legislation put forward by the Commission that there was almost no point in writing to them about anything. We voted to take those decision-making powers back to the British Parliament, so that the politicians that we elect, and that are held accountable at the local and national level, can take decisions on our behalf. We believed that our MPs would be free from corruption and, unlike the faceless bureaucrats of the European Commission, implement policies that are voted for in elections and referendums. – Chloe Westley for ConservativeHome

Telegraph: It’s a dereliction of duty that the Government has not prepared Britain for a no-deal Brexit

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, told the BBC yesterday that it was “physically impossible” to leave the EU on March 29. Why is this the case? The House of Commons has voted twice by large majorities for the UK’s membership to cease on that day: when MPs triggered Article 50 and when they passed the EU Withdrawal Act. The reason we are not leaving at the end of March is because the Government, and notably the Treasury, failed to make adequate preparations to do so, despite knowing for two years that Brexit was due to happen. Theresa May has instead insisted that the deal she has negotiated with the EU – but which parliament has twice rejected – must be passed or otherwise we stay in, either temporarily or for good. Throughout this tortured process, the alternative to leaving with a deal was supposed to be leaving without one. Indeed, the Prime Minister has inveigled fearful Remain MPs into backing her deal by making that possibility explicit. Now she is trying to bludgeon Leave MPs into supporting it by making the opposite threat. It is hardly surprising that trust in Mrs May has evaporated, with Tory MPs openly talking about replacing her as soon as Brexit is concluded, assuming it ever is. – Telegraph (£) editorial

Nigel Farage: Brexit lies – Brussels is offering us a false choice

As a major moment in our history approaches all eyes are on parliament and our politicians. Yet as each nail-biting day passes, there is another group which is being treated as though it is irrelevant – the people. At the cross-party Brexit group Leave Means Leave, we decided some time ago to confront this gigantic snub. For this reason we began a two-week march yesterday from Sunderland to London.The aim of this protest, which is open to everybody, is to send this message to Britain’s politicians:We want the Brexit which we voted for delivered. The march will culminate in a rally in Westminster.Will it be a celebration or a protest? As the final terms of Brexit remain unknown, none of us can answer that question. What is certain is that it is vital to give voters an opportunity to make their feelings known.We know they won’t be silenced and we understand that their anger is legitimate. They have been betrayed by a parliament of chumps. I genuinely believe that most Remainer MPs don’t have a clue about how the EU works and don’t understand what damage they have done to British democracy in recent weeks. Neither do they realise what a horror show they will unleash upon Britain if they accept Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement. It’s not just the ignorance of our MPs that has shocked me – or even their arrogance. It’s their deceit. From Mrs May down, the majority of Britain’s 650 MPs have lied.The precious bond that exists between the electorate and our politicians has been seriously damaged – perhaps beyond repair. – NIgel Farage MEP for the Express

Darren Grimes: This is the best Brexit we’ll get

The Establishment of Oxbridge-educated, central London-dwelling high-earners has stitched us up. Sneakily, away from the public eye, they have stretched every rule to breaking point, relied upon every arcane parliamentary procedure they could find and pulled every lever of power available to them to make sure that the will of 17.4 million “plebs” is thwarted. It started even before the referendum when David Cameron banned the Civil Service from preparing for Leave winning the referendum, forcing the new post-referendum government to start a delivery plan from scratch. It continued when Philip Hammond refused to allow vital spending on no-deal preparation. And it’s ending with attempts by Remain MPs like Hilary Benn to “take control” of parliamentary business so he can ride roughshod over our vote – enabled by a disgracefully partisan Speaker in John Bercow.I could keep listing elites who have used their power to thwart the people’s vote, but the longer I go on, the angrier I get. My fury peaks when I think how close we now are to them stopping Brexit altogether. We are days away from a “lengthy” extension to our departure date being forced through Parliament by anti-democracy Remoaner MPs. If we think about how much damage the Establishment has done to the Brexit cause in the last 30 months, imagine how much more they can do if Parliament and the EU bounces us into a 21-month extension. – Darren Grimes for the Express

Paul Goodman: Would May agree to go quickly to get her deal through? She may yet hint at it. But watch the small print

Some hold Theresa May entirely to blame for the Government’s current condition – and Brexit’s. They argue variously that she has never believed in it, or else given way to Remainers, or to else to Brexiteers, or else been “adamant for drift”, or else been run by Olly Robbins, or else simply cocked everything up, especially since calling the 2017 election.  Others claim that it is unjust to make her carry the can, amidst a divided Party, Commons, Parliament and Country. Our own take is somewhere between the two. Whichever view Conservative MPs take, they should all agree on one point – namely, that there is no sign of May wanting to leave Downing Street. Prime Ministers almost never go willingly. The only exception we can think of recently is Harold Wilson – and he was ill, so shouldn’t really count. No, May looks dug in for the moment, unless there is a long extension. Perhaps she will surprise us all.  Maybe she will emerge from Number Ten, for no apparent reason, to announce publicly that she is willing to resign. But we doubt it. It is more likely that, if the Prime Minister’s back is up against the wall, as it was during December’s leadership challenge, hints will be dropped and briefings given – but no pledge offered of an immediate departure. – Paul Goodman for ConservativeHome

Roger Bootle: Brexit plans to cut trade tariffs will pay off, if we ever leave the customs union

There is no more eloquent testimony to the troubled nature of our attempted exit from the EU than the recent announcement of the UK’s tariff regime in the event of a no-deal Brexit. You might think that after the Commons vote against no deal, this is of academic interest only. But you’d be wrong. A no-deal exit is still the legal default position. The EU may not grant the delay that Parliament wants and even if it does, we don’t know what will happen at the end of it. Moreover, if it comes to a second referendum or a general election, and/or the choice of a “softer” Brexit, the nature of our future trade regime should figure large in the debate. The details of Britain’s intended tariff schedule were kept under wraps until last Wednesday, the day of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. At that point it was only 16 days until the UK’s scheduled exit on March 29. Yet it was more than two and a half years since the referendum. There are few better examples of government incompetence and the burdens that this places upon business. Of course, our proposed tariffs may never come to be applied. Remarkably, lots of MPs seem to think that it is important to stay in the customs union, thereby continuing with the current tariff regime. Some confuse the customs union with a free-trade area and accordingly assume that it inevitably boosts trade. If only they could realise that the customs union is at the heart of the EU’s protectionist racket. Leaving it is one of the major gains to be had from Brexit. –  Roger Bootle for the Telegraph (£)

The Sun: Brexiteers must accept the reality and back Mrs May’s deal or Brexit is in peril

Make no mistake: though the penny is dropping for many Tory backbenchers, Brexit is still very much in peril. The news that Labour will back the ‘Kyle Wilson’ amendment, ensuring a referendum on the PM’s deal, should be deeply alarming to those Conservatives who still think a better Brexit is possible. The amendment is a Remain wolf in sheep’s clothing. It would be an Establishment stitch-up, with serious consequences for the public’s faith in democracy for decades to come. For those Labour supporters who voted to leave, it’s a reminder that the party’s MPs are desperate to overturn the result of the ‘People’s Vote’ in June 2016. There are some notable exceptions. But the vast majority are determined to frustrate Brexit, regardless of the result of our biggest ever democratic exercise. Labour is now far more interested in north London than the north of England. The threat of Remainers wrecking our departure gets more pressing by the day. Brexiteers must accept reality and back the best Brexit possible: the PM’s deal. – The Sun says

Robert Peston: What the PM offered the DUP

The prime minister’s frantic last attempt to persuade Northern Ireland’s DUP to back her third meaningful vote on Tuesday involves a promise that if the controversial backstop is ever triggered, Great Britain would adopt any new food and business rules that could be forced by the EU on Northern Ireland. This is a high risk offer by Theresa May to NI’s unionist party – which has huge clout with her because without its votes in parliament her government would collapse. As a minister told me, for the DUP to accept the offer it would have to trust that a future prime minister and government would honour the pledge – which cannot be guaranteed even if May legislates for such alignment (because any law can always be repealed). May’s offer falls far short of the DUP’s demand that the EU must change the so-called Withdrawal Agreement, to remove the potential for business and food regulations between Great Britain and NI to diverge – and thereby, according to the DUP, create a new kind of legal border between NI and the mainland. It also risks alienating some Brexiteer purists because it would keep the whole of the UK tied to the EU’s single market and undermine further the ability of Westminster to – in their words – “take back control”. What is perhaps worse and would rub salt into Brexiteer wounds, this unilateral British acceptance of alignment with EU rules, for as long as the backstop is in force, would not remove the responsibility of EU institutions to routinely interfere in UK affairs, to check that goods and food flowing from GB to NI meet EU standards. So logically the regulatory alignment offer should not pacify and win over the DUP. But sources close to the DUP tell me that – to their surprise – it may have done. – Robert Peston for ITV News

Katy Balls: May under pressure to set an exit date to get her deal over the line

Is this the week Theresa May sets out an exit date for her departure from No. 10? There is hope in government that this will be the week the Prime Minister passes her Brexit deal. However, the price of her doing so could include a promise to resign before the second stage of negotiations begin later this year. No. 10 are working to try and ensure May passes her deal before this week’s EU council meeting where she has to try and seek an Article 50 extension. In a bid to try and do this, ministers have been locked in talks with the DUP all weekend on what could be done to make the deal palatable to them. The package discussed is expected to include new legislation being brought forward which would say Northern Island would stay in step with the rest of the United Kingdom while in the backstop. There is a lot of resentment from backbenchers at May for letting it reach this point. Even if the deal passes, there will be little in the way of celebration. May’s allies admit the game is up. Her former adviser Tom Swarbrick said on Friday that he reluctantly agreed it was time ‘that this Prime Minister looks at her time in office because I’m not sure she is the right person to bring this back together’. Even Philip Hammond refused to give a straight answer when pressed on the Prime Minister’s future on Marr. A number of Brexiteers publicly called for May to consider her position this weekend – with Esther McVey saying the Prime Minister deserves a ‘dignified exit’. It follows that if things go to plan for the government this week and it looks as though May could pass her deal – it could also spell the beginning of the end for her premiership. – Katy Balls for The Spectator

Brexit in Brief

  • Legal Advice: no changes to the backstop lock-in – Lawyers for Britain
  • The end is nigh for the People’s Vote parade, but I’ve got a great new job for them… – Toby Young for the Telegraph (£)
  • Voters will turn on the Tories if Brexit fails… the party needs a new leader, fast – Trevor Kavanagh for The Sun
  • Tory civil war spills over into furious WhatsApp row after Remainer MP is accused of drunk texting – The Sun