Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Theresa May’s soft Brexit plan could put 25 Conservative seats at risk and hand Jeremy Corbyn keys to No10… Theresa May’s soft Brexit plan could cost the Tories 25 MPs and hand the keys to No 10 to Jeremy Corbyn, research shows. A polling expert claims a mini-recovery by Ukip would see as many as two dozen pro-Leave ‘marginal’ seats held by the Conservatives switch to Labour if an election was held tomorrow….A report by Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent, finds that Ukip are up 4.2 points in an average of all polls carried out since the PM unveiled her Chequers Brexit compromise in July.Mr Goodwin adds that it will be almost impossible for the Tories to make up the difference in pro-Remain seats – as many young millennials and large parts of the middle class feel “alienated”.He says: “Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers Brexit has gone down like a lead balloon among Conservative voters. Since it was announced, the Conservative Party’s position in the polls has slumped four points while support for Ukip has more than doubled. – The Sun Introducing Britain’s new political party – Matthew Goodwin for Politico …as Priti Patel warns Chequers Brexit plan could cost Tories hard-won seats Writing in The Sun, former Aid Secretary Priti Patel tears into the PM’s Chequers proposal – and says voters may never forgive the party for ceding key powers to Brussels.She blasts the Government for treating the public like “sheep to frighten into the right pen” with a diet of doom-laden tales about No Deal preparation. And she insists the PM must chuck Chequers and ditch a plan that would leave the UK in a “halfway house”. The Tories won narrow victories in Middlesbrough, Stoke and Southport in last year’s Election – helped by a swing among pro-Leave voters. But Ms Patel says the public will desert the party if the PM pushes ahead with her plans to stay in a single market for goods – and restrict the potential for trade deals around the rest of the world. – The Sun If the British lion is ever going to roar again then the first step is to chuck Chequers . – Priti Patel for The Sun Tory MPs to ‘avoid party conference like the plague’ over toxic Brexit ‘bloodbath’ – Express Brexiteers reportedly plotting to oust May and install Davis as ‘interim PM’ as early as October – Daily Mail Boris Johnson urged to team up with David Davis and oust Theresa May this year – The Sun UK economy rebounds as it grows by 0.4% in the second quarter of the year Britain’s economy has rebounded and growth has picked up as the sunny weather has helped boost construction and shopping figures, it was today revealed. The UK’s GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of the year – far higher than the 0.2 per cent the quarter before when snow and frost slowed building rates. The figures were welcomed by Chancellor Philip Hammond, who has come under growing pressure to turn on the public spending taps after years of austerity. He today announced £780 million to boost innovation and technology in the UK. – Daily Mail Heatwave and World Cup combine to lift Britain’s economy – The Sun UK economy warms up – Reuters Philip Hammond urges the EU to accept the plan… The British chancellor, Philip Hammond, has called on Brussels to accept Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint, saying it offers a “fair and sensible” way forward. Hammond said the controversial plan hammered out at Chequers last month would enable the UK to remain closely connected to the EU economy in a way that worked for both sides. His comments came after the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, said “intransigence” on the EU side meant there was now a 60-40 chance that Britain would crash out without a deal. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has already rejected a key element of the proposals for a “facilitated customs arrangement”, saying the bloc would not accept anything that undermined the integrity of the single market. – Guardian …as Goldman Sachs hedge their bets on May getting it through Parliament… Goldman Sachs sees Prime Minister Theresa May clinching a Brexit deal on access to European Union markets for goods and getting it approved by the British parliament, though it cautioned that a disorderly exit and national election remained possible.With less than eight months left until Britain is due to leave the EU, there is little clarity about how trade will flow as May, who is grappling with a rebellion in her party, is still trying to strike a deal with the bloc. Under the current timetable, London and Brussels hope to get a final deal in October to give enough time to ratify it by exit day, though May’s minority government faces a series of make-or-break moments in the Brexit process over coming months. “Our own base case is for an orderly withdrawal, although the tail risks have admittedly increased,” Goldman said in a research notes for clients. – Reuters …and Supermarkets tell Treasury that no deal ‘will hike food bills by 12%’ Supermarket giants have warned the Treasury that a no-deal Brexit would force up the price of the average weekly food basket by as much as 12%. Senior executives from some of the big four supermarkets made the alarming prediction in briefings to the Treasury on the impact on food prices of a no-deal Brexit. The biggest tariffs on imports from the EU could include cheese, up by 44%, beef, up by 40%, and chicken, up 22%. The warnings, which the Treasury is taking seriously, come as it is revealed that Britain’s monetary chiefs have ploughed the country’s foreign currency reserves into euros since the Brexit referendum, in what some are claiming is a vote of confidence in the stability of the single currency. – The Times (£) Chequers-backing bloc forms to challenge Tory Brexiteers Tory battlelines are being drawn ahead of an autumn which could split the party, with a new bloc of 50 Conservative MPs set to challenge the hardline Eurosceptic Research Group. The new Brexit Delivery Group – led by Tory MPs Simon Hart and Andrew Percy – will meet weekly when Parliament returns next month “to find a pragmatic Brexit outcome”. Chris Skidmore, the party’s head of policy, has urged the party to unite, warning there was a “the risk of the Conservative Party becoming self-defined as simply the Brexit party, without a clear domestic policy offer for the country”. – Telegraph (£) James Cleverly claims Britain can toughen up Brexit once we’re out of the EU James Cleverly says trade deals which contradict the EU common rulebook aren’t out of the question after Brexit day. He tells Chopper’s Brexit Podcast: “If at some point we got a trade deal proposal which contradicts elements of the common rulebook then we can do that judgement. You can make and unmake treaties. Treaties can be unmade.” – Telegraph (£) EU leaders ‘open to Brexit compromise’, but Theresa May warned they may be setting a trap EU leaders are considering a compromise over Brexit that would allow Britain access to the single market for goods while ending freedom of movement of people. In the first sign of divergence between EU member states and Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier, leaders are expected to sound out Theresa May about a compromise at a summit in Salzburg next month. However, the deal would come at a price, as it would involve Britain accepting all future EU environmental and social protections – which Eurosceptics say is “not Brexit”. – Telegraph (£) Brussels is ready to drop its free-movement demands to end the Brexit deadlock as long as Theresa May makes concessions in return – The Sun Corbyn hopes to avert call for public vote on Brexit at conference Labour has been considering how to head off a concerted attempt by remain-supporting members to stage a vote at its annual conference calling for a second referendum, to avoid what would be an embarrassing defeat for Jeremy Corbyn on the party’s Brexit policy.About 130 constituency Labour parties (CLPs) were understood to have expressed willingness to back a motion in favour of a second vote, drafted by the pro-Corbyn campaign group Labour for People’s Vote. To avoid a damaging defeat, one option is to invite delegates to support a Brexit policy statement that would refer to holding a second referendum, but only in exceptional circumstances. It could be similar to a watered-down resolution that was supported at Unite’s policy conference in July, which was offered by the union leadership to defuse a similar situation. – Guardian New Daily Mail editor will ‘tone down’ Brexit stance The incoming editor of the Daily Mail has indicated that he will only gradually tone down the strident pro-Brexit agenda espoused by his predecessor when he takes the helm at the powerful right wing tabloid at the beginning of next month. Geordie Greig has told staff not to expect an immediate change in political coverage when he takes the reins from Paul Dacre, who spent 26 years in charge, for fear of alienating readers and because the wider political situation is so uncertain. Instead the focus will be on ensuring that the country achieves the least damaging form of Brexit and developing a more nuanced editorial line by next spring, a shift in emphasis that will be welcomed in Downing Street, where Theresa May is battling to control a revolt from the right of her party. – Guardian The CBI call on the government to scrap immigration targets post-Brexit The net migration target should be dropped and replaced by a system that ensures people coming to the UK make a positive contribution to the economy, the Confederation of Business Industry says. Extra funds should be provided for schools and hospitals where demand is increased by immigration, the business group said, as it called for an “open and honest” debate about a new immigration system post-Brexit. “Most credible economic studies show that immigration delivers net economic benefits for the UK,” the CBI said. “Foreign workers put in more than they take out.” It added: “Their taxes – which pay for schools, hospitals and roads – outweigh the benefits they receive. And, as the Office for Budget Responsibility notes, higher net migration reduces pressure on government debt.” – Sky News Kick out EU migrants after 3 months if they can’t find jobs after Brexit, businesses suggest – The Sun Iain Duncan Smith blasts bosses for not ‘bothering’ to find British workers for jobs given to EU immigrants – The Sun Back us not Brussels on Iran, US ambassador tells Theresa May as he warns British businesses will lose trade Britain should side with Donald Trump rather than Brussels over Iran, the US ambassador to London declares on Saturday as he calls on America’s “closest ally” to reverse its position on the controversial nuclear deal. Writing for The Telegraph, Woody Johnson challenges the UK to abandon its European neighbours who are still backing a deal to trade with Iran and join forces with America to enforce hard-hitting sanctions. Mr Johnson also delivers an explicit ultimatum to British companies, telling then to stop doing business with Iran or face “serious consequences” for your trade with America. – Telegraph (£) SNP divided over second Brexit poll Division in the higher echelons of the SNP threatens to undermine a campaign for a second referendum on Brexit. The Sunday Times understands that Nicola Sturgeon and the party’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford are at odds with senior SNP figures who are more amenable to EU membership being put to a fresh public vote.Those on Sturgeon’s side of the argument believe there are too many “known unknowns” to decide at this time on whether to back a second Brexit referendum. Informed sources said that while the SNP would not block a second vote, it was difficult to favour one when Labour’s position on making it happen remained unclear.The SNP leadership is also worried that another referendum campaign on Brexit could highlight divisions within the party, with about a third of SNP voters favouring Brexit. – The Times (£) Priti Patel: If the British lion is ever going to roar again then the first step is to chuck Chequers It’s time to chuck Chequers. How in the world did we get here? After the British people voted to leave the European Union we were told “Brexit means Brexit” and that critical “red lines” would guide our negotiations with the EU. So far, so good.Fast forward to today and we live in a different world. The so-called Chequers Agreement crosses all those red lines. We are dancing the hokey cokey with the Customs Union and Single Market, which means restricting our freedom for new free trade agreements.These, of course, are critical to the national economic success of Brexit. European regulations will remain in force — with no input from the UK. So we stay under the rule of European courts and provide a back door for continued freedom of movement for EU nationals into Britain. – Priti Patel for The Sun Mark Littlewood: Whitehall will be the next target of a growing urge to take back control Antagonism towards the European Union is not noticeably waning. There may have been a very small shift away from Leave in the opinion polls, but it is born more of despair with the protracted and tedious nature of the negotiations than a sudden yearning for European political unity…If the Brexit referendum let the “take back control” genie out of the bottle, then the implications go far wider than our future relationship with the European Union. There will soon be a need for a new constitutional deal within the United Kingdom. That could be as controversial and difficult as the Brexit process to execute, but it is no less avoidable.- Mark Littlewood for The Times (£) John Mills: The Value Of The Pound Slipping Down Is Not A Disaster Brexit naysayers have a new target: the British pound. The pound has fallen to one of its lowest levels in modern history – and that is supposed to be a bad thing. But it’s not. A weaker pound is just what this country needs. The more competitive sterling is, the more it will revitalise industry, increase investment, improve productivity and raise living standards. – John Mills for Huffington Post Asa Bennett: No deal Brexit might be unpopular, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen If voters had to consider the options in a second public vote, the option of what Brexiteers term a “clean break” would not necessarily be dead on arrival. Mrs May’s team know that while it may not be popular currently, that could change depending on how bad a deal Brussels was trying to foist on them. Of course, the terms might have to be extremely, objectively bad to ensure that – requiring, say, the construction of a gold statue of Michel Barnier in Parliament Square. The Prime Minister is not someone who would be instinctively drawn to the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. Her ministers are ostensibly making contingency plans for such a scenario. But the fact that they focus on how hard it could impact Britain, rather than for Europe too, suggests they are not trying to use it to unnerve Brussels. Instead, it seems like they want to unnerve critics of the Chequers deal in the hope of persuading them to view it as the least worst option. It’s no wonder Brexiteers like Steve Baker, who as a minister asked officials to draw up research on how a no deal Brexit would impact on the EU27, despair about how the government is handling this. – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£) Edward Lucas: Cherry-picking is reality of the single market The message for our Brexit negotiations is clear. The single market is the product of haggling and always will be. Its four freedoms — the movement of goods, services, capital and people across borders — are aspirations, which are inevitably qualified by national, political and cultural preferences. There are no unambiguous answers to the trade-offs between competing priorities: promoting choice and low prices for consumers, protecting public health, maintaining social stability, financing professional training schemes and other important things. Settling these disputes is what our political and legal systems are for, or at least should be, if our leaders were not distractedly squabbling about burkas and the definition of antisemitism. – Edward Lucas for The Times (£) John Redwood: The government should not sign the draft Withdrawal Agreement with the EU I have advised the government not to sign a one sided Withdrawal Agreement. They have always confirmed they will not sign it unless and until it is balanced by a good Future Partnership Agreement, which is still nowhere to be seen. I need to remind them why the present draft Withdrawal Agreement is thoroughly unsuitable for the UK anyway. The UK voted to leave the EU and its complex binding legal Treaty architecture. We will do so thanks to Parliament passing the Notification of Withdrawal Act and the EU Withdrawal Act. – John Redwood’s Diary Joy Lo Dico: I can see it now… Brexit will be all about the green shoots of recovery It’s time to dig for victory.The National Farmers’ Union warned that this week next year — August 7, to be precise — we will run out of food if we can’t import easily from the European Union and beyond. Fresh fruit and vegetables will be first to go. Doom-mongers. We should regard our potential starvation — beginning on August 7, 2019 — as a great opportunity. Raise your trowels in defiance! It’s time for Londoners to go Brexit gardening. We could go old-school like Jeremy Corbyn and plant an allotment, or we could show off British innovation and ingenuity and transform this city into a truly green capital. And there’s nothing greener than a cabbage.- Joy Lo Dico for the Evening Standard Frederick Forsyth: Electoral Commission’s latest verdict is bent as a corkscrew That is why I deplore the yawning gulf that has developed between the establishment and the broad masses of the people – a gulf that in part led to the people rebelling against what they were told and voting Leave in the referendum. Now a bad example of bias is waved before us.The Electoral Commission is important – the arbiter at the very heart of our democracy.If it is not believed to be straight as a die, we are in real trouble. Yet its latest verdict is bent as a corkscrew. It investigated complaints from three whistle-blowers that the Leave campaign had broken the referendum rules by overspending on its campaign during the run-up to the vote two years ago. – Frederick Forsyth for The Express Chris McGovern: Northern Ireland has 60 hard borders, to halt tribal murder EU bosses in Brussels may soon have blood on their hands. Their decision to play the Irish border card in the current Brexit negotiations is incendiary and reckless, to say the least. Walking the nationalist Falls and the loyalist Shankill roads in Belfast a few days ago, I was struck by how little even mainland Brits know of their fellow citizens across the water. The European Commission, it seems, knows even less. For Michel Barnier and his Brexit negotiating team, the Northern Ireland issue is little more than a stick with which to beat the Brits and to ensure that we are properly punished for voting to exit the EU. – Chris McGovern for ConservativeWoman Comment in Brief It’s time for a grown-up conversation about immigration – Catherine Neilan for City A.M. When it comes to ‘impartial’ advice on security, the EU gets what it pays for – Lee Rotherham for ConservativeWoman Reply to a letter from the Prime Minister – John Redwood’s Diary EU Access to UK Financial Markets – Azad Ali for Briefings for Brexit A bigger, more vocal grassroots presence at Conservative Party Conference – Mark Wallace for ConservativeHome May’s charmless offensive – Laurence Hodge for ConservativeWoman Dear Sophie – don’t quit the Conservative Party, stay and fight against Brextremism – Dr Philip Lee MP for ConservativeHome How to crush the Remainers (in a strictly non-violent way) – Michael St George for ConservativeWoman Everything has changed Why the Brexit revolt cannot be undone – Tom Slater for Spiked Second referendum or end of the Tory Party – Bob Morgan for Huffington Post Leo Varadkar won’t sign his own death warrant, no matter how much Theresa May asks – Paul McGrade for the Telegraph (£) News in Brief Bloc of 50 moderate Tory MPs forms to challenge the Brexiteers amid fears of party split – Telegraph (£) ‘Money will flow into Brexit Britain’ Economist calls EU a ‘difficult place for business’ –Express Spurs boss: Brexit partly to blame for lack of signings – Sky News Brexit transfer fee hikes enough ‘to buy Ronaldo’ – Sky News Brexit factions – BBC News Jacob Rees-Mogg blasts Chequers plan and warns PM ‘not to rely on Labour to secure Brexit deal’ – The Sun Labour plotting to back a second referendum – Express Treasury readying Brexit contingency plans for finance industry – Reuters Lucrative £140million contract to make our boys’ berets and uniform could go to EU firm – The Sun Theresa May’s soft Brexit plan could put 25 Conservative seats at risk and hand Jeremy Corbyn keys to No10, experts warn – The Sun Theresa May’s Chequers plan for customs deal after Brexit ridiculed as ‘fanciful’ – The Sun Firms in Brexit ‘supply shock’ as EU workers stay away – Sky News