Michel Barnier suggests Britain will be handed a £50bn exit bill when Theresa May triggers Article 50… The chief negotiator for Brussels, Michel Barnier has told colleagues that the UK must keep paying “tens of billions” annually into the EU budget until 2020. The bill would include the UK’s share of outstanding pensions liabilities, loan guarantees and spending on UK-based projects. The demands, which came as the Prime Minister held meetings with other European leaders before being excluded from a dinner at an EU summit, were dismissed by senior Conservatives who refuted the idea of paying such a bill… Steve Baker, the Conservative MP for Wycombe, said: “You would expect a negotiator to make a high demand… there will be some discussion about this but I would obviously like that bill to be as close to zero as possible.”… “Decisions on how UK taxpayers’ money is spent will be decisions for the UK to take moving forward,” a No10 source said. – Daily Telegraph …as EU officials prepare a three-step model for a smooth Brexit… European officials are working on a three-step model to smooth Britain’s exit from the European Union, including arrangements for a time-limited transition deal. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has won broad agreement from the other 27 countries, plus MEPs, for his three-phase divorce plan, according to senior diplomats and officials. It would consist of withdrawal, transition and then a “new relationship.” The transition phase would be subject to a number of “sunset clauses” to ensure that Britain doesn’t retain the benefits of membership indefinitely, while the shape of the new relationship would be sketched out by Theresa May in her Article 50 divorce letter due by the end of March… Outgoing president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, voiced his support: “The three-phase model that the Commission has chosen to base its work on is indeed the right one… There are too many lives on the line for an erratic, quick and total separation… This is an emotional affair but we should not be led by emotions.” – Politico Schulz threatens ‘hardest Brexit’ if European Parliament role limited – Politico Ukip MEPs could decide outcome of negotiations, Schulz warns – The Independent Brexit transitional deal is an obvious inevitability, says Nick Clegg – The Guardian Brexit negotiations will be led by national governments – Aarti Shankar for Open Europe …while private documents suggest the EU will secure a trade deal with Britain ‘faster’ than Canada – contradicting the warning issued by UK ambassador… The European Commission believes it could negotiate a new trade deal with Britain “faster” than the seven years it took to agree a deal with Canada, according to minutes of a private meeting with EU negotiators obtained by The Telegraph. The admission that the EU could move faster in dealings with Britain than with Canada was made by European Commission officials in a seminar on Brexit held last October by Michel Barnier, the Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator. That contradicts warnings reportedly issued by Britain’s ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, that a UK-EU trade deal could take 10 years to negotiate and then might still fail when it went for ratification by all EU member states. – Daily Telegraph Former Civil Service head Gus O’Donnell: Brexit talks could last ‘at least five years’ – PoliticsHome Iain Duncan Smith blasts the UK’s ambassador to the EU over claims Brexit could take a decade – The Sun EU fanatics want to keep us in for as long as possible – Chris Roycroft-Davies for the Daily Express …and Theresa May reiterates her desire for a deal on UK and EU citizens living abroad ‘early on’ in the Brexit discussions Theresa May has told European Union leaders that she wants to reach an agreement on the status of Britons living in the EU early on in Brexit negotiations – as well as the status of European citizens currently based in the UK. Following on from a European Council meeting, Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny told reporters it was one of two specific issues raised during a “very short update” provided by Mrs May in Brussels. He added that his British counterpart had also expressed confidence about the recent Supreme Court case appealing a High Court judgment that she could not trigger Article 50, the formal process for leaving the EU, without the support of Parliament. – Sky News Terry Scuoler: Granting EU unilateral residency is a dangerous move The refusal of the 27 EU nations to discuss this ahead of Article 50 being triggered is serving to hold the 3m EU citizens in the UK to ransom. By refusing to come to an agreement it is these EU member states who are treating them like pawns in the Brexit game and not the British Government. It is they who are refusing to engage the UK in reciprocal arrangements to safeguard the residency and job security of their citizens living and working here… So, for the UK to grant unilateral residency to EU Citizens, as some have argued, would be an enormous error of political judgement. It would generate nothing in return and make the future Brexit negotiations even harder. It would also be a betrayal of the 1.5m UK citizens working and living (many in retirement) in the EU. – Terry Scuoler, Chief Executive of the EEF for the Daily Telegraph (£) House of Lords report claims the UK will be less safe after Brexit unless ‘mission critical’ EU security deals are kept Britain will be less safe after leaving the EU unless “integral” EU security arrangements and law enforcement databases are retained or adequately replaced, a Lords report has warned. Peers highlighted that arrangements currently in place to maintain security cooperation between the UK and other EU member states were “mission-critical” for Britain’s law enforcement agencies… Access to EU law enforcement databases and data-sharing platforms was “integral” to day to day policing up and down the country, according to the findings… Policing Minister Brandon Lewis told the Press Association: “The UK is leaving the EU, but co-operation on law enforcement and security with our European and global allies remains a priority for the Government.” – The Independent Long-awaited Scottish Brexit plan tipped to land next week First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is to publish proposals for a special Brexit deal for Scotland next Tuesday… It is widely expected the Scottish Government’s plans will be along the Norwegian model, with Scotland remaining in the European Free Trade Area, as a member of the single market, even if the UK opts out. It would mean the UK Government having to devolve tailored immigration powers, which is unlikely, although earlier this week Secretary of State for Scotland David Mundell indicated that there could be a “differential arrangement for Scotland if it can be factually shown that there is a benefit to Scotland from doing that, not just an ideological view that Scotland should somehow be different”. – The National Mundell’s ‘hint’ on a special Scottish deal is nothing of the sort – Henry Hill for ConservativeHome Lloyd’s of London plans to move just 50 jobs to Europe – after warning 34,000 could go overseas as a result of Brexit Lloyd’s of London expects to hire just a few dozen staff on the Continent after Brexit – despite warning that the vote could force 34,000 jobs overseas. Insiders said the Remain-backing 328-year-old insurance market – a key part of London’s financial scene – would set up a European subsidiary with around 50 employees. They believe this will allow it to maintain access even if the UK reaches no trading deal with the EU and our relationship with Brussels sours. It undermines apocalyptic warnings by Remainers that a vote to leave the Brussels club would destroy Britain’s services industry and cost thousands of people their jobs. – Daily Mail Trump, Brexit? Pah, Nissan boss says 2017 will be a record year – City A.M. Nick Clegg tries to justify the Lib Dem pledge to stop Article 50 being triggered We suggested to Clegg that trying to block the Article 50 process is neither liberal nor democratic, an accusation he was keen to “flip on its head” and rebuff altogether. “I think it’s impeccably democratic because it would be the first referendum which would allow the people to pass a judgment on what Brexit actually means. I think it’s very undemocratic to assume people should simply accept what they’re given by the government of the day following the conclusion of a negotiation of which at present we know nothing about and which the government appears to be utterly clueless about. – Nick Clegg interviewed by Business Insider Asa Bennett: Sir Ivan Rogers led David Cameron to European doom. Why would Theresa May listen to him on Brexit? Britain’s Establishment is still in a sulk over Brexit. Sir Ivan Rogers, our man in Brussels, has warned the Government that it could take up to 10 years to agree a trade deal after leaving. Even then, he thinks it could all fall apart… But his advice is hardly worth top dollar. Just look at his recent track record. Sir Ivan played a key part in David Cameron’s attempt to renegotiate Britain’s terms of membership with the EU. That went well of course, didn’t it? …He is Whitehall personified: anti-change, instinctively hostile to anything that questions the pro-EU consensus, and unable to see Brexit as anything other than a problem to be managed and mitigated. Theresa May, by contrast, says she sees Brexit as an opportunity and wants to make a success of it. If she’s going to do that, she should ignore people like Sir Ivan Rogers. – Asa Bennett for the Daily Telegraph (£) Geoff Raby and Andrew Stoler: Britain’s services trade can flourish outside the EU Single Market Negotiating sensible agreements on services trade with the EU, WTO and third countries may not be as difficult as many are suggesting. There are a number of options negotiators can pursue which would go beyond the existing arrangements and further liberalise services trade to Britain’s economic advantage… Since Brussels has been willing to open services markets to Canada, without the conditions of free movement and EU budget contributions it previously demanded of Norway and Switzerland, the UK should be able to negotiate a high-quality services agreement with the EU, including reciprocal passporting arrangements if the UK government wanted to keep them. The reality is that the UK has many realistic options outside the Single Market, and both the UK and EU have much to gain from negotiating a sensible agreement on services. – Former Australian ambassador to the WTO Geoff Raby and former WTO director general Andrew Stoler for City A.M. James Kirkup: The Prime Minister’s ‘Theresa No Mates’ moment is not a metaphor: Brexit will be a deal between nations, not individuals We’ve all been there, haven’t we? A crowded room full of lots of smiling, happy people who all seem to know each other and be chatting away cheerily. You’d like to join in, but how? …Never mind the symbolism: this isn’t a Brexit metaphor. Britain’s position will depend on rather more than Theresa May’s social skills. National interest always, always trumps personal chemistry in diplomacy, no matter what politicians and a few hagiographic journalists and historians might want you to think. Brexit will be a deal between nations, not individuals. – James Kirkup for the Daily Telegraph (£) Childish spite of EU leaders brings out the worst in our sneering remoaners – The Sun says Brexit comment in brief Prime Minister snubbed by EU at sausage party of smugness – Iain Martin for Reaction This is what Labour should do about Brexit – and it starts with realising we’re not a protest party like the Lib Dems – Liam Young for The Independent Why the Civil Service is desperate to know what Brexit means – Joseph Owen & Robyn Munro for CapX Seven thoughts on a PreBrexit IndyRef2 – William Ross for ThinkScotland So much for the EU’s united front – Douglas Carswell’s blog Schauble could destroy eurozone, not just Greece – Dimitrios Papadimoulis for EUObserver Brexit news in brief Government working to avoid labour shortages post-Brexit – Sky News Hammond says WTO option would not be best outcome of Brexit – Reuters Japanese banks warn Hammond of leaving London without Brexit clarity – FT (£) Euro clearing may move from London but only after Brexit – Reuters Every MP to get Ian Dunt’s Brexit “guidebook”, paid for by crowdfunding drive – The Guardian Pink wafer firm Rivington Biscuits reveals Brexit crunch – BBC Six months after Brexit vote, London is even more of a bargain – CNBC Nigel Farage pays another visit to Trump Tower – ITV Poorer voters’ worries on lack of immigration control fuelled Brexit vote, study finds – The Guardian And finally… loudmouthed Remain campaigner Bob Geldof all at sea over the EU He was one of the highest-profile celebrity pro-EU campaigners during the Brexit referendum and famously led a flotilla on the River Thames. But Bob Geldof today unleashed a blistering attack on the European Union – saying it does not work and that Brussels quickly needs a radical overhaul… ‘Europe needs reform – it is sclerotic,’ he told Trinity College Dublin’s Law Society. ‘The whole system is constipated. It needs a laxative to clear it out.’ Geldof said half of Europe is desperately unhappy. ‘It doesn’t function,’ he said. ‘It is ignoring the wishes of European citizens. What worked for six (member states) doesn’t work for 28.’ – Daily Mail