Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team David Davis ‘confident’ Brexit transition deal in sight amid concessions on both sides… David Davis has insisted he is “confident” that a deal will be struck over Britain’s post-Brexit transition arrangements at next week’s European Union summit. The shape of an agreement is emerging following signals that Brussels is ready to drop its opposition to Britain signing trade deals during the transition period which will begin when Brexit takes place next March. Mr Davis, the Brexit Secretary, has bowed to the EU’s insistence that the period should end on 31 December 2020, three months earlier than the government had wanted… Britain and the European Commission are also working to turn a joint report agreed in December over the terms of Britain’s departure into a legally-binding text. Mr Davis added: “We are confident that both of these aims are in reach.” – The i UK expects Brexit transition deal with EU next week – Bloomberg Britain will be allowed to strike trade deals as soon as it leaves the EU as David Davis concedes the Brexit transition will end in December 2020 – Mail Business leaders stress need for speed on transition deal – FT (£) Meanwhile, here’s what’s been happening in the Brexit talks – Mark Wallace for ConservativeHome …as UK and EU agree to intensive talks on Irish border… Brexit negotiators will hold a month of intensive talks aimed at ending the deadlock over how to police the Irish border when the U.K. leaves the European Union. A dedicated new strand in the negotiations — which will involve the U.K, the European Commission and the Irish government — will get under way on March 26 and last until April 18, officials familiar with the plans said. The process is designed to reach a deal on how to overcome one of the thorniest problems in the Brexit negotiating process — how to avoid a hard border and the infrastructure of customs checks at the frontier between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland… Speaking on condition of anonymity, officials said the meetings will be held between the U.K. and the European Commission, with Irish government representatives likely to be present for discussions on cross-border co-operation and practical details. – Bloomberg Irish border remains biggest obstacle to Brexit deal – FT (£) Not enough time to find Irish border solution, MPs warn – The i Irish border with no checkpoints post-Brexit not possible, claims Committee report – Sky News Irish border spat complicates Brexit transition talks – Bloomberg …while Jacob Rees-Mogg warns that the ‘cynical approach’ of Brexit critics to the Irish border is ‘almost encouraging violence’ People warning that the Northern Ireland peace process is at risk because of Brexit are “almost encouraging violence”, Jacob Rees-Mogg has claimed The leading Tory Brexiteer condemned what he called the “cynical approach” of critics warning the threat of a new hard border could bring a return of the Troubles. “Once you start proposing that violence may be a consequence of something, you’re almost encouraging violence,” Mr Rees-Mogg said… “I think [the EU are] the stick in the muds in this and have come up with a solution that is wholly impossible for the United Kingdom to accept – that we should take Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom,” Mr Rees-Mogg said. – Independent Bombshell tapes reveal how top Whitehall officials compared Brexit to a KitKat to hide UK ties to Brussels after we leave the EU Whitehall officials have been caught plotting a “KitKat Brexit”, in which Britain would secretly keep ties to Brussels. The bizarre analogy of a layer of chocolate hiding the wafer beneath drew laughs at a meeting where taxpayers’ cash appeared to be committed to propping up EU defence projects… Senior Brexit Department official Victoria Billing told the private gathering she wanted a deal which she would call a patchwork… Cabinet Office security adviser Alastair Brockbank also said Britain was ready to continue paying “significant contributions” to EU defence projects, adding: “We are interested in it all.” Among them is the Permanent Structured Cooperation by which 25 EU members will merge their forces in one “EU Army”. Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg demanded an official inquiry, saying: “It is wrong for British civil servants to be briefing the other side except in a formal negotiation context.” The tape emerged from a private conference last Friday at the London School of Economics to discuss defence and foreign policy. But one attendee blew the whistle, telling The Sun: “The public have a right to know what is being carved up behind the scenes.” – The Sun US deal on post-Brexit flights ‘possible by end of month’ A deal to prevent a post-Brexit grounding of flights to the US could be struck as early as this month in a major breakthrough for the aviation industry. Fears had been stoked in reports last week that American negotiators were putting unnecessary hurdles in the way of an agreement which would allow UK airlines to keep flying to the US once Brexit takes effect. But Nick Calio, the chief executive of Airlines for America, whose members represent more than 90pc of US airline passenger and cargo traffic, rubbished the claims and added a deal was imminent. “Reports that the US is trying to make it difficult for the UK to strike an aviation deal with it are very misleading,” Mr Calio said. “The US has not been trying to make it more difficult to strike an agreement.” – Telegraph Gibraltar warns EU it could rescind citizens’ rights if Spain uses veto on Brexit deal The government of Gibraltar has warned that it could rescind the rights and protections enjoyed by Spanish and other EU nationals living and working in the territory if Madrid uses its veto to exclude the Rock from any Brexit deal between the EU and the UK. According to EU negotiation guidelines issued in April last year, Gibraltar will find itself outside any future trade deal with the UK unless an agreement is reached in advance with Spain over its status, effectively giving Madrid a veto. Gibraltar’s deputy chief minister, Dr Joseph Garcia, described the veto clause as illegal and said its use would be challenged in court… Were Gibraltar to find itself excluded from the transition and withdrawal, he added, the government might, reluctantly, be forced to reconsider the rights of both EU nationals who live and work in the territory and the 13,000 workers who cross the border from Spain every day. – Guardian Eurocrats warned over ‘naive’ bid to shut out UK banks as it will ‘significantly weaken’ the EU Shutting British banks out of the Single Market will backfire and “significantly weaken” the EU, Brussels has been warned. Georges Ugeux, a former president of the European Investment Fund, branded eurocrats “naive” over their opposition to a special deal for the City. The Belgian, who was also a bigwig on the New York Stock Exchange, said EU leaders’ stance will lead to global investment in the EU drying up. His warning came as Member States inserted new language into their draft negotiating guidelines for a trade deal ruling out Philip Hammond’s plan. Mr Ugeux told Euractiv: “The idea that Europe will win by keeping the City of London at arm’s length is naïve at best. London’s role in financial services is unique enough to be treated separately in a Brexit trade deal.” He predicted a “significantly weaker EU financial system” will be the “likely effect of cutting off the UK financial system from the EU after Brexit”. – The Sun A specific Brexit finance deal benefits the EU – Georges Ugeux for Euractiv Bolster the Royal Navy to protect British waters from ‘armada’ of European trawlers after Brexit, urge MPs Ministers have been warned that as the UK prepares to leave Europe fishing waters could face an armada of European fishing vessels bent on ‘plundering’ British fishing grounds… Tory Philip Hollobone said supporters of Remain and Leave were united in the need for the UK to leave the Common Fisheries Policy, which he labelled the “very worst aspect” of EU membership. Brexit minister Steve Baker said surveillance capacity will be strengthened to ensure UK waters can be patrolled and regulations enforced… Brexit Secretary David Davis was earlier also drawn on the UK’s fishing rules after Brexit, with Tory Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-upon-Tweed) expressing her disappointment at the “aggressive” line taken by the EU. Mr Davis replied: “The simple truth is that when we leave the European Union, we will be an independent coastal state. As a result, we will control our own waters.” – The Sun > WATCH David Davis: UK will be ‘independent coastal state’ Business leaders sign non-disclosure agreements before talks on post-Brexit borders Ministers have asked business groups to sign secrecy agreements before discussing details of the UK’s future border arrangements with the EU. Non-disclosure agreements are understood to have been signed with logistics companies and industry bodies who have been part of a consultation on the issue. Ministers defended the agreements saying they were common practice to protect commercially sensitive information and dismissed claims by Sky News that they were attempting to cover up hard Brexit preparations… Britain has agreed to accelerate negotiations to find a solution to the Irish border as soon as a transition deal is agreed. In a sign that ministers accept that they can no longer put off substantive discussions on the most difficult of all the Brexit issues, a timetable for talks has now been agreed with the EU. – The Times (£) Government ‘paranoia’ over secret business agreements – Sky News UK defends secrecy deals for firms involved in border consultations – Guardian Chris Grayling: No post-Brexit lorry checks at Dover – BBC News France, Germany, US and UK issue joint statement blaming Russia for Salisbury attack as Moscow vows to expel British diplomats… The leaders of France, Germany, the US and the UK have issued a joint statement blaming Russia for the nerve agent attack in Salisbury as Moscow said it will expel British diplomats in retaliation for Theresa May’s action against the Kremlin. Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Donald Trump – the leaders of three of the UK’s most important allies – said they agreed with the Prime Minister’s assessment that there was “no plausible alternative explanation” for the attack… Meanwhile, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister who the Prime Minister said would be barred from coming to the UK, said the Government’s response was prompted by Brexit as he branded the measures “absolutely boorish”. – Telegraph Macron backs May over Russia – Gavin Mortimer for the Spectator …as Lithuanian Foreign Minister suggests Putin is testing UK over Brexit Vladimir Putin is testing the UK at what the Russian president regards as a time of weakness owing to Brexit, Lithuania’s foreign minister has told the Guardian. Speaking after a meeting with the British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, on Thursday, Linas Linkevičius said Russia saw the UK as increasingly isolated as it prepared to leave the EU. Russia was testing the UK’s strength, resolve and diplomatic links after the Salisbury nerve agent attack, he added. “Russia is always looking for weak points, and may feel the UK does not feel very strong,” he said in an interview. “The Russian assumption may be that in the process of Brexit, the UK is weaker in terms of its isolation, and due to Brexit the EU will not be very enthusiastic in backing the UK up. Fortunately that is not the case, and we will support the UK, but Russia acts by testing for reactions.” – Guardian > LISTEN New BrexitCentral Podcast: The international response on Russia shows that British post-Brexit isolation is a complete myth Brussels is slammed by its own watchdog as ex-EU president walks into a banking job and ‘uses his contacts to lobby commissioners’ The EU’s own watchdog yesterday accused Brussels of ‘systemic’ failings over how former president Jose Manuel Barroso was allowed to walk into a job with one of the world’s biggest banks. The European Ombudsman called for the post with Goldman Sachs to be reconsidered amid claims the former Portuguese leader used the role to lobby commissioners. After a year-long investigation, the watchdog questioned why officials working for his successor Jean-Claude Juncker had not properly scrutinised the job, accusing them of ‘maladministration’. It also raised concerns about why restrictions were not placed on Mr Barroso’s activities, suggesting that fresh limits should be placed on possible future lobbying. – Daily Mail Juncker accused of failing to scrutinise Barroso – Express Commission rejects ombudsman criticism over Barroso case – EUobserver Georges Ugeux: A specific Brexit finance deal benefits the EU By not embracing the UK financial sector, the EU might chase global capital markets away from Europe. The idea that Europe will win by keeping the City of London at arm’s length is naïve at best… [A]s the financial heart of the EU, London’s role in financial services is unique enough to be treated separately in a Brexit trade deal. A significant amount of EU financial market activity is concentrated in the UK – particularly in wholesale markets such as OTC derivatives and foreign exchange trading. The UK is home to more than half of European investment banking activity. The UK has the largest insurance sector in the EU (and fourth largest of the world). The EU can only keep its competitiveness in financial markets – which is already under pressure due to globalisation – by holding on to London’s finance sector. Rebuilding another financial centre may take decades, if it is even possible… However, there are intrinsic reasons for London’s leading position in finance, reasons that the EU cannot dismantle in its favour. – Georges Ugeux, former president of the European Investment Fund, for EurActiv Nils Pratley: Brexit to blame? Not in the case of Unilever Nothing to do with Brexit? Actually, one shouldn’t be too sceptical about chief executive Paul Polman’s “categorical” denial that Brexit shaped Unilever’s choice of Rotterdam over London… Some 55% of Unilever’s shares are currently held via the Dutch NV company, as opposed to the UK plc, and the group reports its results in euros. Sole incorporation in the Netherlands was the more natural way to unpick an Anglo-Dutch structure that has existed since the merger of Margarine Unie and Lever Brothers in 1929. At Relx, the former Anglo-Dutch combine Reed Elsevier, the currency and share factors were the other way around. The company opted for London as its sole HQ last month, a decision that should not be sniffed at. The owner of LexisNexis has a gloriously low profile but it is a top-20 FTSE 100 company, only slightly smaller than Barclays. The second factor – despite the formal denials – is surely the Dutch and UK views of hostile takeovers. Unilever folk like the Dutch approach… But the UK jobs, as Unilever was at pains to say, are staying and two of the three divisions will be run from the UK. – Nils Pratley for the Guardian > LISTEN Unilever CEO: HQ move not due to Brexit Guy Platten: Use Brexit to promote free trade and prosperity across the world Britain needs to give itself a chance to thrive in this changing world by finding a place in the new economic ecosystem developing in Asia, Africa, and other emerging markets… Developing countries are already finding their place in the world. These countries now constitute just under half (48 per cent) of all world trade, representing an increase from 33 per cent in 2000. It is no coincidence that, during that same period, the number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen dramatically. Trade has grown the number and the quality of the jobs in developing countries, stimulated economic growth, and improved productivity… Post-Brexit, we will have the opportunity to develop an independent trade policy – and with the strong suggestion this week that the UK will be able to sign its own trade deals before the transition period expires after all, now is the time to pour resources into the Department for International Trade. – Guy Platten, CEO of the UK Chamber of Shipping, for City A.M. FT Person of the Year: Sir James Dyson Sir James is one of the few well-known business figures who advocated a vote to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum… He hints at a preference for a “hard” Brexit. As to whether his carmaking ambitions help explain why he favours such an outcome, which might well inflict heavy damage on conventional UK car manufacturers, Sir James insists his views on leaving the EU and his desire to build a battery vehicle are not linked. On whether he believes any future Dyson cars can break into the Chinese market, Sir James presents his general view that Britain’s EU membership has been at the expense of its relationship with Asian and other markets. “If we could do free-trade deals with the US, China and the old Commonwealth — India, Australia, Canada and so on — these are of far greater value to Britain than the EU.” – Michael Pooler interviews Sir James Dyson for the FT (£) Comment in brief The upturn could come faster than we think – Ed Conway for The Times (£) Can Theresa May’s customs plan resolve Brexit dilemma? – Jim Brunsden for the FT (£) It is time to give the UK’s 3 million EU nationals the vote – James Chapman for The i Reality bites Macron-Merkel romance – Pierre Briançon for Politico The Five Star Movement is all hot air and empty promises – Tom Wheeldon for Reaction The criminal stench in Slovakian public life – Marian L. Tupy for CapX EU’s digital single market hits the Bulgarian rocks – Joanna Plucinska for Politico News in brief George Osborne defends failing to prepare for Brexit while in government – Express George Osborne says he doesn’t regret the fact that his government did not plan for Brexit – Mirror Brexit putting UK-led space missions ‘in jeopardy’ – Sky News MPs demand new UK air quality watchdog after Brexit – EUobserver Godfather-themed restaurant forced to change its name by Euro judges after being deemed “not compatible” with EU values – The Sun ‘We don’t want Brexit to be the flat burger’, anti-Brexit campaign says – EurActiv Jolyon’s failed vanity cases cost crowdfunders £350,000 – Guido Fawkes