Mark Carney accused of spreading gloom with no-deal Brexit prediction of 35pc house price crash: Brexit News for Friday 14th September

Mark Carney accused of spreading gloom with no-deal Brexit prediction of 35pc house price crash: Brexit News for Friday 14th September

Mark Carney accused of spreading gloom with no-deal Brexit prediction of 35% house price crash…

The Governor of the Bank of England has been accused of wanting to spread “gloom and despondency” about Brexit after he claimed house prices would crash by up to 35 per cent in a no-deal Brexit. Mark Carney told the Cabinet on Thursday that in a “worst case scenario” Brexit mortgage rates would spiral, the pound would plummet, inflation and interest rates would rise and millions of homeowners would be left in negative equity. He was challenged by both Remainers and Leavers in the Cabinet, who questioned his methodology and pointed out that he had not taken into account what the Government could do to avert such a scenario. – Telegraph (£)

…as ministers take the Bank of England Governor to task at marathon no-deal Cabinet session…

Home Secretary Sajid Javid and Health Secretary Matt Hancock ripped into the Bank chief after he stunned Ministers in No.10 with a doom-laden briefing… Ministerial sources told the Sun that trained economist Mr Hancock immediately hit back at the Canadian to demand to know what his intervention plan was to mitigate the trouble. The Health supremo asked the governor why he hadn’t suggested an interest rate cut, like the one he swiftly implemented immediately after the EU referendum result in 2016… A Cabinet source revealed: “Matt and Sajid took Carney on to demand to know what he planned to do about all his doom and gloom. It got quite tasty, but it was all perfectly fair questioning.” – The Sun

…while the Bank of England raises its growth forecast again

The Bank of England lifted its estimate of the economy and noted recent strengthening pay, keeping officials on course for future series of gradual interest-rate increases. Policy makers said recent activity has been better than expected, raising their third-quarter estimate to 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent, according to minutes of their latest meeting at which they left rates on hold. Officials also noted that consumer spending and pay settlements appear to have been stronger than anticipated. – Bloomberg

EU leaders will reportedly not give Michel Barnier new Brexit instructions after all

The leaders of the EU will not impose new instructions on Michel Barnier to get a Brexit deal, a senior diplomat has confirmed, in a blow to the UK’s hopes of going over the chief negotiator’s head to secure approval for its Chequers plan. At a summit in Salzburg next week, Europe’s leaders will hear a presentation from Theresa May during a dinner before discussing Brexit among themselves the following day, with just weeks to go before an agreement is needed. An EU diplomat involved in the Brexit negotiations said the prime ministers and presidents would at that stage discuss the details of an extraordinary Brexit summit pencilled in for November, as previously revealed by the Guardian. – Guardian

Latest no-deal Brexit papers reveal blue passports delayed and a small fee to drive in EU…

Blue passports will not be ready in time for Brexit, the Government has confirmed, with holidaymakers to be issued with burgundy documents for most of 2019. The announcement will dash the hopes of Leave voters who may have wanted to mark Britain’s departure from the European Union at the end of March next year with the return of the iconic document. The news was one of the disclosures contained within the Government’s latest batch of 28 no-deal Brexit preparation papers. Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary, said the UK faced “short-term risks and short-term disruption” but insisted a no-deal departure would “not be the end of the world”. – Telegraph (£)

  • CBI claims no-deal would hit business with a “sledgehammer” of rules – The Times (£)

> WATCH on BrexitCentral’s YouTube channel: Dominic Raab talks to BBC News as the latest no-deal technical notices are published

…as Brussels officials claim the UK could not avoid paying the Brexit divorce bill

Britain will have to honour its Brexit divorce bill in the event of no deal if it wants European leaders to help to ameliorate the worst effects of crashing out of the bloc, Brussels officials have said. Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, said yesterday that it was a “statement of fact” that the UK would not pay all of its £37 billion bill should exit negotiations collapse. He suggested that the government would honour its international legal obligations but that ministers could withhold up to £16.4 billion in EU contributions due to be paid during the transition period. His comments attracted scorn in Brussels. Officials said that the UK would need significant co-operation from European countries to prevent the worst effects of leaving with no deal, such as aircraft being grounded. – The Times (£)

Dominic Raab blasts John Lewis for blaming money woes on Brexit uncertainty

The high street giant issued a warning yesterday that its profits for the first six months of the year have been almost wiped out, in part because of uncertainty over an exit deal. But the Brexit Secretary hit back: “I don’t doubt that some of the uncertainty around these negotiations will have an impact on business. All I’m gently saying is it’s rather easy for a business to blame Brexit and the politicians rather than take responsibility for their own situation.” That sparked an angry reaction from John Lewis Partnership chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield. – The Sun

Brexit and the dollar push pound to six-week high

The pound rallied to the highest level against the dollar since August as the U.K. pledged to provide information that could help solve a stand-off with the European Union over the Irish border. Sterling has been buffeted by Brexit headlines in recent sessions, oscillating between gains and losses in volatile trading as investors attempt to interpret contradicting headlines about Britain’s prospects of reaching a deal by March. The pound rallied to the highest level against the dollar since August as the U.K. pledged to provide information that could help solve a stand-off with the European Union over the Irish border. Sterling has been buffeted by Brexit headlines in recent sessions, oscillating between gains and losses in volatile trading as investors attempt to interpret contradicting headlines about Britain’s prospects of reaching a deal by March. – Bloomberg

Labour conference must debate Brexit deal vote, say local parties

More than 100 constituency Labour parties have submitted motions to the Labour conference calling for the party to back a referendum on any final Brexit deal. Campaigners believe the party has received an unprecedented number of submissions on a single topic. The deadline closed on Thursday afternoon and the final tally will not be known for several days, but multiple campaign sources believe more than 100 CLPs have submitted a motion on Brexit. The numbers mean it is all but certain there will be a debate on the issue at the conference in less than a fortnight’s time and there will be a push to shift the party’s official position towards backing a second referendum. Mike Buckley, of Labour for a People’s Vote, said: “We don’t yet have final figures but it looks like the number of constituency parties submitting motions in favour of a stronger line against Brexit and for a people’s vote will be unprecedented. – Guardian

Lords plot audacious amendments in bitter new bid to frustrate Brexit

The unelected peers will attempt to put down amendments to the Trade Bill to try to reopen attempts to force Britain to stay in a customs union with the EU. Previous attempts by peers to keep the UK in a customs union have failed. If successful it will prevent Britain from having its own free trade deals or its own trade policy but instead have to accept rules from Brussels. It could also mean that the UK may be forced to accept free movement and uncontrolled immigration. The audacious attempt comes because members of the Lords are unable to amend the taxation (cross-border trade) bill where Tory Brexiteers led by Jacob Rees-Mogg successfully managed to outlaw attempts to keep Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union separate from the rest of the UK. – Express

Drug industry to invest more despite Brexit, says UK adviser

Drug companies are preparing to make hundreds of millions of pounds of new investment commitments in the U.K. as part of a government effort to boost the life-sciences sector after Brexit, according to the architect of the strategy. That’s on top of announcements last December by more than two dozen global companies, including GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca Plc. The pledges are a key piece of a broader multibillion-pound push by the U.K. to make the country more competitive with its exit from the European Union looming. “We’ve got a list of interesting investments,” which are set to be unveiled in November, John Bell, a University of Oxford scientist tapped by the government to develop the life-sciences plan, said in an interview. – Bloomberg

Get to Brexit then stand down, Theresa May told by Remain-backing former policy adviser

Theresa May’s former policy adviser has called on her to step aside after Brexit day next year to give a “new generation” the chance to shape the country’s future. George Freeman, who was chairman of the prime minister’s policy board for over a year after she entered No 10, said that she should be given space to negotiate the divorce deal with Brussels then go with “gratitude”. The party would then need to hold a leadership contest to find a candidate with the best vision for the second stage of Brexit, meaning a contest next summer culminating at the Tory conference. – The Times (£)

Stewart Jackson: Weaponising ‘no deal’ would make the EU see sense on free trade

Belatedly, it appears that the government is taking the prospect of “no deal” on Brexit seriously with its bespoke cabinet meeting on the subject this week. Or it could be a choreagraphed sideshow as a grudging quid pro quo for the Chequers surrender? Is “no deal is better than a bad deal” as hackneyed now as “the cheque’s in the post?” Since the brutal bifurcation of his department and a personnel land grab by the Cabinet Office Europe Unit which followed his appointment as secretary of state in July — with egregious discourtesy announced simultaneously in a Commons statement whilst he was giving evidence at a select committee — Dominic Raab has nevertheless played the toughest hand in Whitehall skilfully and steadied the ship at the Department. – David Davis’s former Chief of Staff Stewart Jackson for The Times

Theresa Villiers: The ERG’s solution to the Irish border opens the door to a wide-ranging free trade agreement

The paper launched by the ERG yesterday sets out a workable solution to the Irish border question, one which does not require new physical checks or infrastructure at the border, and which does not damage the EU single market or bypass its rules. It is in the interests of both sides of the Brexit negotiations to reach an agreement which maximises the opportunities for trade between us and facilitates continuing cooperation on a range of different areas. Nowhere does this matter more than in the Republic of Ireland. The Irish Government’s own forecasts suggest significant negative consequences for their economy if the EU insists on putting up new barriers to trade after we leave. The EU’s £95 billion trade surplus in goods with the UK means that many other Member States also have jobs and businesses that depend on maintaining a flourishing trading relationship with us. – Theresa Villiers MP for ConservativeHome

Owen Paterson: The Government must accept the Irish border is no barrier to a proper Brexit

Time for the Brexit negotiations is running out. Over the course of the negotiations, the EU has insisted that the supposed problem is “intractable” because the only way to protect the integrity of the EU single market is to institute a “hard” border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, or a border down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Neither of these proposals is acceptable but, thankfully, neither is necessary. With such little time remaining, the negotiators must now take a realistic view of existing technical and administrative measures to handle the procedures for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. – Owen Paterson MP for the Telegraph (£)

  • The European Research Group utterly opposes a regulatory border down the Irish Sea – Owen Paterson MP in the Belfast News Letter

Peter Foster: Brexit talks deadlocked, Irish backstop issue unsolvable and ‘the clock ticking’: why a deal between UK and EU is still a long way off

It has become the cliche of the Brexit negotiations to say that the ‘clock is ticking’, and yet as the deadline for a divorce deal fast approaches, in Brussels, Paris and London it feels as if time is standing still. Michel Barnier repeats that “80 per cent” of the Withdrawal Agreement is complete and he can do a deal in “six to eight weeks” if all sides are “realistic”. The markets jump for joy at such optimism, without apparently interrogating that all-important “if” and what Europe means by being “realistic”. Peter Foster for the Telegraph (£)

Simon Hart: I am an unambitious backbencher who knows that the perfect Brexit does not exist

Forgive me for not introducing myself. I’m one of the largely unknown political cast who make up the numbers here in SW1. I don’t really fit any of the media expressions assigned to MPs such as “senior”, “ambitious”, “controversial” or, God forbid, a “leadership contender”. I am an unambitious backbencher, who voted remain, but who is pragmatic about the future and (I hope) principled when it comes to respecting referendum outcomes. I am increasingly concerned that thanks to internal wrangling, leadership ambitions and wilful misrepresentation of the realities of parliament, the Brexit project now hangs by the finest of threads. – Simon Hart MP for The Times (£)

James Forsyth: The Tories are conspiring to chuck the Chequers plan

Right now, as I say in the magazine this week, Theresa May doesn’t have the political space to make further significant concessions to the EU. Without significant concessions, the EU isn’t going to agree to the Chequers plan. This is why a growing number of Cabinet Ministers are already talking about when the government should move on from Chequers and put a different offer – closer to a Canada-style deal – on the table. One influential member of the cabinet insists that this is the key issue: whether Theresa May has ‘the agility to change tack’. Another explains that his faction is doing their bit to try to persuade the country and the party of the merits of Chequers because they’ll be in a ‘stronger position to urge her to pivot away if we have tried to sell it’. – James Forsyth for The Spectator

Brexit in Brief

  • Brexit will be Theresa May’s final act – Beth Rigby for Sky News’ Sky Views
  • Our national politics is broken. Renewal after Brexit needs to be built from the ground up. – Jessica Studdert for ConservativeHome
  • Put London’s place as the capital of fashion at the heart of Brexit talks – Stephanie Phair for the Evening Standard
  • Downing Street tells Tory MEPs to distance themselves from Hungary’s far-right leader, leaked messages show – Telegraph (£)
  • HMS Mersey put on standby as scallop wars set to reignite after British fishermen walk out of peace talks with French – The Sun
  • Government must introduce post-Brexit permit to attract European academics and students, universities say – Independent
  • Eurostar trains could be blocked after no-deal Brexit, French minister claims – Express