Sajid Javid suggests Brexit may be delayed as clock ticks for Ma: Brexit News for Friday 01 February

Sajid Javid suggests Brexit may be delayed as clock ticks for Ma: Brexit News for Friday 01 February
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Sajid Javid suggests Brexit may be delayed as clock ticks for May…

Sajid Javid warned a Cabinet colleague that Brexit is likely to be delayed, a source told The Telegraph as it emerged that nearly a third of the Cabinet now believe Article 50 may have to be extended. The Home Secretary is said to have raised concerns with another minister during the last fortnight that Theresa May will run out of time to pass legislation needed for Brexit. One source claimed that during the conversation Mr Javid questioned the Prime Minister’s strategy of publicly insisting the UK will leave on March 29. The Telegraph understands that nine Cabinet ministers believe Brexit may have to be delayed if extra time is needed to finalise the terms of a deal. Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the Commons, warned the Prime Minister at Cabinet earlier this week that she may be “timed out” if she returns to the Commons with her deal on February 14. The Prime Minister has repeatedly insisted that Britain is leaving the European Union on March 29 but declined to rule out extending Article 50. – Telegraph (£)

…and Jeremy Hunt also admits the date might slip…

Jeremy Hunt has said the date the UK leaves the European Union may need to be delayed even if Theresa May manages to secure backing for her deal. The Foreign Secretary said the government “might need some extra time” to “pass critical legislation”, as he indicated Article 50 would need to be extended. Mr Hunt added that any progress in negotiations with Brussels is “not going to happen in the next few days. If we ended up approving a deal in the days before March 29, then we might need some extra time to pass critical legislation,” Mr Hunt told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme. He said Tuesday’s vote was encouraging. “A week ago none of us knew this is going to be possible, we now have a consensus in Parliament,” he said. This is the second time a Cabinet minister has publicly suggested an extension may be needed even if Mrs May’s deal passes through Parliament. Last week Andrea Leadsom said the EU may be prepared to grant the UK a “couple of extra weeks” beyond the March 29 deadline for an approved Brexit deal to pass through Parliament. – Telegraph (£)

  • We may need to push back leaving date, admits Hunt – The Times (£)

…as Sir Graham Brady says he ‘could accept a delay’ if a deal were in place

Senior Conservative backbencher Sir Graham Brady has told the BBC that he could accept a delay to Brexit – as long as a deal was already agreed. He said a short delay to the 29 March exit date would be acceptable if needed to get legislation through Parliament. The government says its position has not changed on the date but Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has suggested “extra time” may be needed. MPs rejected a bid to postpone Brexit if no deal was reached by 26 February. That amendment, from the Labour MP Yvette Cooper, would have delayed the 29 March departure date by several months, but it was voted down by 321 to 298 on Tuesday. But Sir Graham, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers, told Nick Robinson’s Political Thinking podcast, the Cooper amendment “would have been deeply counter-productive because it moves off the decision point”. – BBC News

EU fears a short Article 50 extension would mean a no-deal Brexit in June

EU officials fear Theresa May is setting the UK on course for a no-deal exit at the end of June because she will not have the political courage to ask for the longer Brexit delay they believe she needs. Senior figures in Brussels have been war-gaming the likely next steps by the British government, and believe a delay to the UK’s exit date of 29 March is inevitable. But they fear the prime minister’s strategy of seeking simply to survive from day to day will lead to her requesting an inadequate short three-month extension for fear of enraging Brexiters in the Conservative party. EU officials and diplomats said the danger of the UK then crashing out in the summer was an underappreciated risk given that the escalation of no-deal planning and the cries of betrayal by Brexiters would give momentum to a cliff-edge Brexit. On Thursday the British foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, became the first cabinet minister to admit that the two years of negotiations allowed under article 50 may have to be prolonged, describing the Brexit impasse as “a very challenging situation”. – Guardian

Labour MPs warn Theresa May they cannot be ‘bribed’ to back her Brexit deal with promise of extra funding…

Theresa May has been warned by Labour MPs she cannot buy them off to back her Brexit deal with the promise of extra funding for their constituencies. Downing Street is reportedly preparing to offer Labour MPs in Leave-voting areas a cash injection to persuade them to support the Prime Minister. But some Labour backbenchers have said the offer of cash would be “pointless” if Mrs May does not also soften her Brexit deal as they told her she must choose between them and hardline Eurosceptic Tories. Meanwhile, Remain-backing Labour MPs said any colleagues who supported the deal after being offered more cash would be seen as “cowards”. At least one Labour MP welcomed the prospect of more funding, with John Mann telling the Government: “Show us the money.” However, Mr Mann said any funding offer would not be “transactional” and should instead come in the form of a “Rebuilding Britain Fund” for neglected areas – brought forward alongside a Brexit deal – which could persuade Labour MPs to back Mrs May. – Telegraph (£)

…while those Labour MPs backing a Brexit deal for cash are branded ‘cowards and facilitators’ by colleagues

Labour MPs backing Theresa May’s Brexit deal after her promise of extra cash for deprived communities were branded “cowards and facilitators” as her charm offensive prompted bitter infighting. Downing Street yesterday denied that the plan, revealed by The Times, amounted to “cash for votes” but confirmed a “programme of national renewal” after Brexit. Mrs May’s spokesman said she had “a longstanding commitment to tackling inequality between communities. We are determined to lead a programme of national renewal post-Brexit by rebuilding and reconnecting communities, driving prosperity and unleashing the potential and creativity of hard-working people in every part of our country. No community should feel that they are left behind.” John Mann, the Labour MP for Bassetlaw, who has held extensive talks with Mrs May and others in recent days, made clear that he wanted to see a substantial uplift. “Show us the money. A fund of sufficient size to transform our communities. Our areas voted Leave and it is time that we had the investment we need,” Mr Mann tweeted. “Our areas need to see a fund established that is transformative. The forgotten areas of Britain who voted Leave want jobs, rights and investment.” – Telegraph (£)

ECJ will block lawsuits against Britain for not paying Brexit bill after no deal

European Union judges will block legal action against Britain for refusing to pay the Brexit bill after a no-deal exit, lawyers have told The Telegraph, as Downing Street insisted it would not pay the entire £39 billion financial settlement if the UK crashes out. Downing St on Thursday said it would pay its “legal obligations” but not the full amount. The Telegraph understands the British government would be reluctant to pay the EU budget contributions up to 2020 after it was no longer a member. On Wednesday, in Brussels, the European Commission said it would expect Britain to still pay the full £39 billion financial settlement, including the budget payments, after no deal. Later Jean-Claude Juncker warned that no deal had become more likely after the House of Commons voted to renegotiate the Brexit deal. “The agreement which we have under the Withdrawal Agreement which obviously structures the payments and sets out an agreed amount or range would fall away,” a Downing St spokesman said, “However, the Prime Minister has said that where we have legal obligations we would meet those.” – Telegraph (£)

Liam Fox to take veiled swipe at Donald Trump’s trade policy in major speech today

Cabinet minister Liam Fox is to take a veiled swipe at Donald Trump’s trade policy, branding the idea that it will protect the US from globalisation a “mirage”. The international trade secretary will instead suggest actions being taken by the Trump administration at the WTO will create a “free for all” that risks decades of international progress. It comes as the president’s approach to the WTO is set to paralyse its dispute settlement mechanism – which post-Brexit Britain could rely on to resolve trade rows in the future. Mr Fox will raise the issue in a major speech he is to give in London on Friday, in which he will call for Britain to “remember that there is a world beyond Europe and there will be a time beyond Brexit”. The minister will say that the UK must take a “multilateral” approach to promoting the liberalisation of trade in services at the WTO. – Independent

Gibraltar to be designated ‘Crown colony’ in EU law for no-deal Brexit

The 300-year Anglo-Spanish dispute over Gibraltar is again threatening to disrupt the Brexit process, as the EU prepares to brand the Rock as “a colony of the British Crown” in its legislation to cope with a no-deal exit. Britain officials hit back at the “completely inappropriate” language to describe Gibraltar in a spat over the territory that underlines how it could still pose a serious obstacle to an orderly Brexit. Some EU diplomats fear Madrid’s relentless pursuit of the “colony” reference is a sign that it will press for even more difficult concessions on Gibraltar if Britain reopens its Brexit deal, or requests to delay its March 29 exit date. “The Spanish are gearing up for a Gibraltar fight when there is an extension request,” said one senior EU diplomat. “It could be dangerous.” – FT (£)

Cancellation of MPs’ February recess over Brexit is confirmed

MPs’ February break could be cancelled as the Government struggles to make progress on Brexit. Labour Whips Twitter account announced on Thursday morning that recess had been called off after Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom said the House may need to continue to sit to “make progress on the key business”. Ms Leadsom apologised for the announcement and said full details of when the Commons would be sitting in February will be revealed soon. Her remarks came after she announced the business for next week, which included no Brexit legislation, but did include a general debate on beer taxation and pubs. The Commons was expected to rise at the end of business on February 14 and return on February 25. – ITV News

New Brexit Party has more than £1m in pledges and slate of over 200 candidates including Nigel Farage

A new Brexit party backed by Nigel Farage has received pledges worth more than £1million and is lining up a slate of candidates to fight in elections. Catherine Blaiklock registered the Brexit Party on Jan 11 with the Electoral Commission and is hoping it can stand candidates in the May European Parliament elections if Brexit is delayed past that date. She told today’s Chopper’s Brexit Podcast – which you can listen to easily by logging in or subscribing below – that more than 200 “highly professional people” have come forward offering to stand at the European Parliament elections if they take place. The prospect is likely to raise concerns in Conservative central office which will be worried that the new party could take away votes and stop its attempts to defeat Labour. The party has already received the backing of Mr Farage, the veteran former leader of the UK Independence Party. She said the party had received “seven figure pledges – a lot of people are very very unhappy about what is going on in the political process”. – Telegraph (£)

Shanker Singham: Five steps to a better deal with the EU

The vote for the Brady amendment and the momentum behind the Malthouse Compromise have strengthened the PM’s hand. Surely turning a 230-vote loss into a win must tell Brussels that the UK wants a deal and the kind of deal it can support? It is not surprising that the European Union has lobbied hard for a deal which heavily favours their interests. If I were advising the EU, I would counsel them to hang tough in the hope that the Tory party will crack, meekly accept the deal – and Customs Union membership. The EU would be all too comfortable with this scenario, as shown by Jean-Claude Juncker’s immediate warning to Theresa May that a permanent customs union would be the price for revisiting the deal. This gives lie to the notion that the EU would be as uncomfortable in the backstop as we would be. They want us locked into a customs union/single market to prevent us from executing an independent trade and regulatory policy and being more competitive domestically than they are. – Shanker Singham for the Telegraph (£)

Iain Martin: Accept it, we’re done with the People’s Vote

Farewell, the People’s Vote campaign. Of course it has been fascinating watching the old gang — Tony Blair, the PR guru Roland Rudd and assorted New Labour spin-doctors — show off on their reunion tour. But all things, no matter how entertaining, reach their natural end. Their second referendum show is all but over. Why do I say that? One should never rule these things out entirely, but what air was in the People’s Vote balloon has escaped in the past month. Last week depressed pro-Remain MPs failed to organise sufficient backing to put down an amendment in the Commons. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn refused to help, because he is a Brexiteer and always has been. That being the cold hard reality, Remain-leaning activists and their backers will soon have a choice to make about what to push for in the years ahead, be it to rejoin the EU or concentrate on treating the ills that led to the Leave vote. I hope they choose acceptance of Brexit and pivot to campaigning for reform and improvement, because there is a lot to fix. The Brexit crisis has exposed a London-centric country with a broken political system, an out of date constitution featuring too many MPs and peers and an electorate that desires change on housing, the economy and the environment. – Iain Martin for The Times (£)

Fraser Nelson: If Theresa May is robust with Brussels now, she may finally be able to get Brexit right

For all its bureaucratic lethargy, the European Union can certainly move fast when it wants to. This week, for example, it took just six minutes to reject Parliament’s request to amend the Brexit deal. The agreement cannot be reopened, it said, there’s nothing to discuss. But now, reality is beginning to bite. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has been saying that he’s confused, that he does not know what the UK wants. The perfect basis, therefore, to reopen talks with Theresa May. Now, she can explain not only what she wants but what Parliament will accept. This has given her an unexpected second chance to conduct a Brexit negotiation – and, this time, get it right. She has been taking advice from serving and former Cabinet members, who have all been quite consistent. The tight deadline, they have told her, can work in her favour – as long as she does not repeat the mistakes that brought her to this point. – Fraser Nelson for the Telegraph (£)

Sherelle Jacobs: As long as Brexiteers hold their nerve, game theory proves that no-deal is now inevitable

Does a paranoid schizophrenic Nobel prize-winning mathematician from the 1950s hold the key to Brexit? The question sounds insane, but as Britain slides further down the rabbit hole of Brexit infighting and entropy, interrogating the chaos with eccentric questions somehow seems rather appropriate. The scholar in question is the brilliant and flawed 20th-century mathematician John Nash. From the baseline that humans are all fundamentally conniving, suspicious and selfish, Nash extrapolated several major contributions to game theory. One of his most famous is the prisoner’s dilemma, which seeks to show why rational individuals often fail to cooperate, even if such collaboration seems to be in their interests. Following Tuesday night’s political high drama, which saw Theresa May emboldened in her doomed quest to renegotiate the backstop with Brussels, following the passing of the Brady amendment, and the spectacular rupturing of Remainer resolve with the shock defeat of the Cooper-Boles amendment, I found myself picking Mr Nash’s works out of my bookshelf at home. I had the vague feeling that an explanation of the embarrassing and unexpected Remainer climb down in Westminster was also contained in the pages of his papers, which I had devoured with fascination some years before. – Sherelle Jacobs for the Telegraph (£)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: German anger builds over dangerous handling of Brexit by EU ideologues

A group of top German economists has told the EU to tear up the Irish backstop and ditch its ideological demands in Brexit talks, calling instead for a flexible Europe of concentric circles that preserves friendly ties with the UK. Brussels must “abandon its indivisibility dogma” on the EU’s four freedoms and come up with a creative formula or risk a disastrous showdown with London that could all too easily spin out of control. A joint report by the influential Ifo Institute and universities across Germany and Europe warned that Brussels may be deluding itself in thinking that the EU has the upper hand in all respects or that the British will inevitably capitulate before March 29. “In a standard game of chicken, the actor who loses the most will dodge first. Can the EU really be sure that losses are sufficiently asymmetrically distributed that it ‘wins’ this game?” the report asked. “This is a very dangerous game, both for the UK and for EU. It is wiser to take the threat of a hard Brexit at face value and react accordingly. Recognising that a hard Brexit is in no one’s interest and that it would cause irreparable political as well as economic damage, we call both on the UK government and the EU Commission to rethink their ‘red lines’ and return to the negotiation table,” it said. – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Telegraph (£)

The Sun: Brussels is still playing hardball because they know the Irish backstop is their golden ticket

Italy is in recession, Germany’s economy is nose-diving. What a moment for Brussels’ headbangers to risk a No Deal Brexit. We know why they’re still playing hardball. Michel Barnier admits they could probably find an alternative to the Irish backstop — but why would they? It’s their golden ticket. A ruse to keep us trapped indefinitely and hobble us as a newly independent trading nation. Plus, they believe Tory Remainers may bottle out before they do — and delay or halt Brexit. But that’s a huge gamble. No Deal won’t affect unelected, unaccountable, untouchable eurocrats with monstrous salaries and fat pension pots. But EU politicians should be terrified. If the chaos finally tips the eurozone into recession, and hundreds of thousands lose their jobs in Ireland and across the continent, they won’t thank national leaders for sacrificing them on the altar of the sacred backstop. They will join the clamour to escape the EU — and elect much less moderate politicians who will make it happen. – The Sun says

Brexit in Brief

  • The backstop is built on a colossal delusion – Ian Acheson for CapX
  • Working throughout February – John Redwood’s Diary
  • Audience erupts as Tory attacks Labour Brexit policy in QT debate – ‘You have no plan!’ – Express
  • Ukip leader asks Queen to suspend parliament to thwart remain MPs – Guardian
  • Theresa May wins backing but not loyalty from Tory Brexiteers – Politico

And finally… BBC error suggests Theresa May will fly Second World War fighter plane to Brussels

It’s the stuff of Brexiteer dreams. Theresa May, emboldened by a crucial victory in the Commons, flies out to Brussels in a Spitfire to renegotiate Britain’s exit from the European Union. For viewers of BBC News at Six this fantasy briefly became reality. The corporation has apologised after an item about the prime minister’s plans to reopen her Brexit deal was illustrated with black and white footage of Second World War aircraft. At the close of Wednesday evening’s bulletin archive pictures of planes flying over Biggin Hill airbase were broadcast into million of homes as the newsreader Sophie Raworth recapped the prime minister’s plans. – The Times (£)