Eurosceptics attack ‘doom and gloom’ Autumn Statement predictions from independent economic forecaster Eurosceptic ministers have attacked the Government’s budget watchdog after it estimated that Brexit would cost the country almost £60 billion in lost economic growth… The head of the OBR admitted there is a 50 per cent chance that its predictions are wrong – just as its predictions for how the British economy would fare in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote in the referendum proved incorrect. Cabinet ministers reacted furiously to the forecast, saying it is “not worth the paper it is written on”. Another minister said: “We were told we would be in a recession after Brexit. We are not. These predictions are worthless.” – Daily Telegraph Former Work and Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, said: “The key thing is that the OBR has been wrong in every single forecast they’ve made so far. On the deficit, on growth, on jobs – they’ve pretty much been wrong on everything. “Yet again one of these forecasting engines that is very close to the Treasury has come out with another utter doom and gloom scenario.” – Daily Express The warning prompted leading Eurosceptic MP John Redwood to tell the Chancellor: “The OBR is probably still quite wrong about 2017 – their forecast is too low, their borrowing forecast is too high, and we will get good access to the single market once we are out of the EU.”… Labour MP Gisela Stuart added: “Predictions for a loss of investment and trade for the next 10 years do not seem credible. “Outside of the EU’s single market we can look forward to an even stronger economy – with better regulation and free trade deals with some of the fastest growing economies in the world. This will benefit businesses large and small and help to create jobs and spread prosperity across the country.” – Sky News ‘Experts and astrologers are in the same category’ – Jacob Rees-Mogg blasts negative Brexit predictions – Daily Express Even the quangocrats themselves admit their predictions for UK economy could well be ‘too gloomy’ – Daily Mail The government’s latest growth forecast isn’t worth the paper it’s written on – Ross Clark for The Spectator’s Coffee House blog The Autumn Statement – and why forecasting a cost of Brexit is bunk – Paul Goodman for ConservativeHome Hammond reveals plans to make Britain the world’s most competitive economy… British business has received a boost after the Chancellor laid out plans to make the UK the most competitive major economy in the world. In a package of measures, Philip Hammond confirmed his predecessor George Osborne’s plan to take corporation tax down to just 17 per cent, currently the lowest in the 20 biggest economies in the world… The Chancellor found £1 billion to invest in broadband and 5G mobile networks around the country and announced a series of measures to boost the English regions, Scotland and Wales including £8 million for a Midlands rail hub and £235 million for city deals in Scotland over the next five years. – Daily Express …as he said the strength of the post-Brexit economy had confounded commentators Promising help for hardworking families, a surprisingly upbeat Chancellor said UK output would grow faster than in most EU countries – creating half a million jobs. In his first Autumn Statement Mr Hammond vowed to spend billions to boost productivity, build homes and improve transport and broadband networks… He said the economy had ‘confounded commentators at home and abroad with its strength and its resilience since the British people decided to leave the European Union and chart a new future for our country’. – Daily Mail The Chancellor’s speech in full – Daily Telegraph Brexit to cut immigration by 80,000 a year – and other OBR observations – The Spectator’s Coffee House blog Chancellor Philip Hammond drives UK fintech boom – International Business Times Over £400m extra funding set aside for Brexit process Philip Hammond has set aside up to £412m of additional funding to help Whitehall deal with leaving the European Union following criticisms that the civil service cannot cope with Brexit. The chancellor’s autumn statement said that the Department for Exiting the EU, or Dexeu, will receive £51m this financial year and an extra £94m from 2017/2018 until the UK’s exit is complete. Additional resources of £26m each year by 2019/20 will be provided to Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade and the Foreign Office. – The Guardian Bank of England’s Kristin Forbes says Brexit has had lesser-than-expected impact on UK growth “The strength of the UK economy during the period of heightened uncertainty before and after the referendum on EU membership suggests that uncertainty is dragging less on growth than has traditionally occurred,” she said in a speech at JP Morgan Cazenove in London. “Nonetheless, even though heightened uncertainty has recently appeared to have less effect on the UK economy than expected, that does not mean that it has had no effect, or will have no effect in the future.” – International Business Times Allister Heath: Brexit Britain needed a radical vision, but timid Hammond played it safe Britain has voted to leave the European Union, the Government has pledged to make it a success and yet the country’s official forecaster continues to assume that Brexit will be bad for growth, productivity and the budget deficit. It’s almost like a scene out of Yes, Minister, a case study in how the establishment never gives up. It would be comical if it weren’t so serious… For those of us who believe that Brexit will, in time, be good for growth and bolster openness and competition, this is maddening: what’s the point of winning a referendum if the government machine is on autopilot, preprogrammed to trash Brexit and to assume the worst at every stage? – Allister Heath for the Daily Telegraph (£) Graeme Leach: Philip Hammond fell for the discredited groupthink that Brexit is bad for growth If the Autumn Statement was a court of law, and the OBR was in the dock, it wouldn’t be long until the prosecuting barrister got the OBR to admit that its numbers were an assumption in the short term and a guess thereafter. The downward revisions in 2017 and 2018 are based on little more than assumption… Even though the idea that Brexit means downturn has been thoroughly discredited over recent months, we’re expected to believe it will still happen over the next two years. – Graeme Leach for City A.M. Alistair Darling: The chancellor has failed to provide a clear direction on Brexit We must respect the referendum outcome, but the public is entitled to understand what the options are and to hear them debated. The government could at the very least set out all the problems that must be dealt with – from the single market to the customs union and free movement. The public expects government to lead, not to follow. Today was a lost opportunity to try to find an answer to the biggest questions this country has faced since the second world war. – Former Chancellor Lord Darling for The Guardian The Autumn Statement was positive, despite the Treasury’s pessimism – Gerard Lyons for the New Statesman The British economy sails steadily on towards Brexit – Andrew Lilico for CapX Business Secretary Greg Clark says UK must avoid post-Brexit banking barriers to EU A Brexit deal that weakens London’s ties to EU financial markets would damage Britain’s economic future, Business Secretary Greg Clark told Reuters, vowing to protect the City while the government focuses on nurturing a hi-tech manufacturing revival… Speaking shortly after Hammond’s Autumn statement, Clark underlined the economic importance of getting a good deal for the financial sector in negotiations with the EU on how Britain will trade with the bloc once it leaves. “We know that having fragmented financial markets is not good for the competitiveness of any business, any country in Europe whether it is the UK or overseas,” Clark said, describing London’s banking expertise as an asset “any other country would kill to have.” – Reuters Martin Schulz to step down as European Parliament President amid speculation of German Chancellor bid Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, will run for a seat in the German Bundestag next year… and won’t seek another term in his current job, he told POLITICO… Schulz’s ultimate ambition, however, may be to run for Chancellor as the candidate for Germany’s social democratic party (SPD) in next year’s election. – Politico German MEP says European Army will now happen thanks to Brexit because Britain was the only thing stopping it Sabine Lösing, an MEP who represents Lower Saxony, told Mail Online: ‘Britain was the brake. Here in the European Parliament that was very clear and I have seen them block it. ‘If the UK is not here any more they will not be here to argue there is no need for this.’… The resolution passed yesterday by 369 votes to 255, and based on a report by Estonian MEP Urmas Paet, would also allow for the EU to ‘act where NATO is unwilling to do so’. – Daily Mail Europe must spend more on defence, says Nato head – The Times (£) EU states must pay their share to NATO, not an EU army – Jack Beresford for The Commentator Costly new Brussels building for European summits nears completion The egg-shaped building locked into a glass cube is nearly complete. Its construction has been kept low key, since the then British Prime Minister David Cameron slammed what he thought was a typically unnecessary EU expense. If his successor, Theresa May, sticks to her word and triggers Article 50 by March, she will not have to sit at the summit table in the new EUCO building. – EurActiv James Forsyth: Theresa May will go into Brexit talks holding all the aces Since the referendum, the British economy has grown faster than that of the eurozone. The government is now led by a Prime Minister who is as secure in her job as any of her EU counterparts. Theresa May can walk into the Brexit negotiations knowing that she has several aces in her hand… British ministers must be extremely careful not to sound as if they are running down the whole EU project. Diplomacy and the national interest require that Britain conveys the message that it wishes the EU every success in future, regardless of how much ministers might privately think that the break-up of the euro would be a good thing. – James Forsyth in The Spectator Charles Moore: Does any Supreme Court judge represent the 17.4 million Brexit voters? As the Supreme Court hearing on Article 50 approaches, scarcely a week goes by without one of its judges making a speech… If a court is to decide political matters in this country… then people will seek the ‘transparency’ of which, in other fields, the court so proudly boasts. Is there diversity among the 11 Supreme Court judges about Britain’s EU membership, or are there at least 17.4 million people whose views are unrepresented among them? – Charles Moore in The Spectator Vincenzo Scarpetta: May is right — there should be no running commentary on Brexit The government cannot show its hand because there is no hand to be shown yet. At the moment, everything and nothing is possible. We are at a stage when ministers and officials are holding meetings with stakeholders from all sectors of the British economy in a bid to collect as much information as they can while a clearer negotiating plan is drawn up. If the government were to take a more talkative approach, the most likely result would be a raft of contrasting reports that could, if anything, convey the impression of even greater uncertainty—not to say utter confusion. – Vincenzo Scarpetta for Prospect Magazine Brexit comment in brief An orderly divorce of Britain and the EU is in the interests of both sides – Simon Nixon for The Times (£) There is nothing ‘hard’ about Brexit – Jayne Adye for The Parliament Brexit-bashers like Blair and Branson are the real enemies of the people – Brendan O’Neill for The Spectator’s Coffee House blog CETA: What lessons can we learn from Wallonia – The Parliament Tom Peterkin: SNP Brexit Minister’s Brexit blunder shows need for accuracy – The Scotsman Brexit news in brief Slovak Prime Minister: “The biggest loss for the EU would be if the UK comes out from the negotiations a winner.” – The Parliament Philip Hammond: IndyRef2 bigger threat to Scottish economy than Brexit – The i Common British-Irish travel area ‘can survive’ Brexit – Irish Times Britain’s EU expats mount campaign for Brexit rights – EurActiv “Rational cost-benefit analysis” behind Brexit vote, says Economics Professor – Imperial College Pro-Brexit CMC boss Peter Cruddas bullish in long-term despite his share hit – Reuters London’s shipping captains see threats and opportunities amid Brexit storms – Evening Standard Brexit will have no impact on consumer Christmas spending – Small Business House building contracts surge as industry shakes off post-referendum lull – Daily Telegraph Brexit ‘could pave way for Scotch whisky exports boost’ – The Herald Thomas Cook shares jump to post-Brexit high despite ‘difficult year’ – The Independent Austrian far-right hopeful Hofer may back EU membership vote – BBC Turkish president Erdoğan dismisses vote on Turkey’s EU talks – Politico And finally… Lib Dem candidate for Richmond Park deeply confused over her views on Brexit Central to Ms Olney’s campaign is a “clear pledge” to halt Brexit. “We don’t believe even a soft Brexit would be right,” she said. But her stance has been confused by the emergence of a blog, in which she wrote: “Britain is leaving the EU — OK, I accept that. I don’t think we should re-run the referendum.” Asked if she had changed her mind, she insisted: “I wrote that much longer than a month ago. I think people are getting a bit confused.” When challenged with a printout showing that her words were written on October 14, Ms Olney said: “No, no, no,” but then added: “I don’t know… Given that when I wrote that I had no idea I was going to be in a by-election or … that I was going to be under such scrutiny, maybe I would have chosen my words more carefully if I had been an actual by-election candidate at that time … I was just a normal person; that was just a thought I had.” – Sarah Olney interview in the Evening Standard