Brussels fears an accidental no-deal Brexit: Brexit News for Saturday 26 October

Brussels fears an accidental no-deal Brexit: Brexit News for Saturday 26 October
Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team

Brussels now fears an accidental no-deal Brexit…

It is the nightmare scenario that many EU and UK Brexit officials have long feared: a disorganised crash-out, not because either side wants it but because political events spin out of control. Some Brexit officials fear that moment has now arrived with Brussels and London locked in a standoff: EU27 countries don’t want to grant an extension of the October 31 deadline without knowing Britain will hold a national election, while opposition parties in Westminster say they will not vote to allow a snap election unless the EU has approved an extension and set a new deadline. EU diplomats met in Brussels Friday morning and announced that they agreed on the need for an extension but would not make a decision until Monday or Tuesday of next week — further raising the stakes. – Politico

  • EU agrees to Brexit delay, but no date yet – BBC News

…as there is a ‘growing risk’ of No Deal in five days if Macron continues to block a Brexit extension…

France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Britain and the EU are nearing the brink of no-deal after President Macron today blocked an extension to Brexit and preparations began for an emergency summit on October 30. A source close to the French president warned that a delay to Brexit beyond Thursday was “not a given” unless there was new political movement in Westminster to justify it. “France wants a justified and proportionate extension. However, we have nothing of the sort so far,” an Élysée official said. “We must show the British that it is up to them to clarify the situation and that an extension is not a given. Pressure must be maintained.” – The Times (£)

…and the EU is ‘very unlikely’ to decide on an extension before Tuesday

A senior EU official has told Sky News the bloc is “very unlikely” to decide on an extension to Brexit negotiations before Tuesday. EU leaders are deciding whether to opt for an extension until January or a shorter November delay – thought to be favoured by French President Emmanuel Macron. It was thought they would decide by Tuesday – two days before the latest official leaving date – but this is now looking unlikely, meaning Boris Johnson will be unable to fulfil his promise of leaving on 31 October “do or die”. Weekend talks by the 27 leaders are likely to be influenced by a leaked document, seen by the Financial Times, that indicates the British government may want to diverge away from the bloc’s rules on workers’ rights and environmental protections after Brexit. – Sky News

Supporters of a second referendum may try to seize control of the Commons timetable next week

Rebel MPs are exploring ways to seize control of the agenda from Boris Johnson by allowing parliament to debate and vote on Brexit legislation and a second referendum possibly as soon as next week. Several MPs told the Guardian this was a plan under consideration if Johnson persisted with his insistence that his withdrawal agreement bill was “paused” until MPs agree to an election on 12 December. Under the plans, which have been worked on since the summer by supporters of a second referendum and soft Brexit, MPs would again try to use procedure under standing order 24 to take control of the timetable in parliament. They would then attempt to introduce either Johnson’s Brexit deal or Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, with possible votes on adding a customs union, second referendum and extending transition to prevent departure on World Trade Organization terms. – Guardian

Jeremy Corbyn could yet back SNP and Lib Dem plan for a December 5th election…

Jeremy Corbyn opened up the prospect of backing an SNP and Lib Dem pact to back a December 5 election. The two smaller anti-Brexit parties joined forces to try to bounce Labour into backing their plan for an earlier poll in order to kill-off Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal bill.  Jeremy Corbyn said he was open to the idea of an election ‘maybe before December 12th’ It is the latest date they would support an election before next year. It has been chosen because it would mean breaking up Parliament by the end of next week – giving the Government no time to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to deliver Brexit.  SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford insisted a December 5 election “would be an awful lot easier” for the nation because “people are obviously looking at nativity plays, Christmas parties, the unavailability of halls and schools and all the rest of it.” And yesterday Mr Corbyn said he was open to the idea of one “maybe before December 12th”.  – The Sun

  • Man up and accept December election, Boris Johnson tells Jeremy Corbyn – The Times (£)

…as some Tory MPs warn Boris Johnson they will not support his December election plan 

On Thursday a group of 41 “One Nation” Tory MPs met the deputy Chief Whip, Amanda Milling, to say they did not want an early election.  In a meeting which lasted about an hour, half of the MPs present made explicit threats that they do not want an election this year. They argued the election should only happen after Brexit is done, with a number also warning that Mr Johnson’s deal as it could spark unrest in Northern Ireland. Ms Milling told the MPs she would pass on their concerns to Mark Spencer, the Chief Whip. It is understood Mr Spencer updated Mr Green yesterday. – Telegraph (£)

  • Boris Johnson will have to put up with a Brexit and snap election delay before he can get his way – James Forsyth for The Sun
  • Boris Johnson is asking for this election in the interests of upholding democracy – Charles Moore for the Telegraph (£)
  • Boris needs an election to slay this zombie Parliament, which has Brexit in its deathly grip – Asa Bennet for the Telegraph (£)

DUP say they believe in Brexit but the Union comes first

Arlene Foster says her party will decide this weekend whether or not to support the prime minister’s bid to hold a general election in December. But the DUP leader has told Sky News that her 10 MPs must be able to scrutinise the Brexit withdrawal legislation. She said: “This is not just a straightforward call for a general election. This is linked very clearly with an accelerated passage for the withdrawal legislation.” “Of course, we need to be in a position to scrutinise that withdrawal legislation so we will have to consider whether we support the prime minister or not and we will make that decision over the weekend,” she added.  – Sky News

  • Arlene Foster to reaffirm opposition to Brexit deal – BBC News
  • Varadkar: I want to see united Ireland – The Times (£)
  • Fifteen ways to help Strengthen the Union after Johnson’s Brexit deal leaves Northern Ireland detached – Paul Goodman for ConservativeHome

Would the SNP be prepared to leave the UK without a deal?

The SNP’s rhetoric around No Deal was shown up for the nonsense it is on today’s Politics Live when Sir Bernard Jenkin asked if the SNP would only let Scotland leave the UK under terms the UK could set. Ian Blackford quickly tried to move the conversation on. Clear logic making it an excruciating experience for the SNP. – Guido Fawkes

Hopes rise over post-Brexit workers’ rights and regulations

The British government is planning to diverge from the EU on regulation and workers’ rights after Brexit, despite its pledge to maintain a “level playing field” in prime minister Boris Johnson’s deal, according to an official paper shared by ministers this week. The government paper drafted by DExEU, the Brexit department, with input from Downing Street stated that the UK was open to significant divergence, even though Brussels is insisting on comparable regulatory provisions. The issue will come to a head when the UK begins the next phase of talks with the EU to forge a new trade deal. – FT (£)

Treasury says it has ‘paused production’ of Brexit 50p coins because of missed October 31st deadline

Sajid Javid has “paused” production of the new Brexit 50p coins due to the likelihood that the UK will not leave the European Union next Thursday. A Treasury source told The Telegraph: “We have paused production of the Brexit coin and will take a final decision in due course.” The Treasury declined to comment further but it is likely that hundreds of thousands of the coins have already been minted. The coins are likely to be collectors’ items if any are allowed to leave the Royal Mint before they are melted down. – Telegraph (£)

Nigel Farage: MPs must seize this chance to rethink Boris Johnson’s horrifying deal

Britain is being asked to sign up to a new EU treaty, binding in international law, at huge expense, in return for a new set of negotiations.  I know it is tempting to acquiesce to Johnson’s plan. Forty months after we voted to quit the EU, his “let’s get Brexit done” mantra has a certain ring to it. I also understand the fear some MPs have about the prospect of a second referendum being inflicted on the country and the prospect of losing Brexit completely. What has astonished me most is how few MPs who planned to vote for the “deal” last Saturday understood its content. The removal of the Northern Ireland backstop and the freeing of Britain from a future customs union were seen as a victory in itself. But even Johnson did not seem to know the detail. – Nigel Farage for the Telegraph (£)

Wolves of Westminster: Why not just ratify the Withdrawal Agreement post-Brexit?

We see no particular reason why the Withdrawal Agreement legislation could not simply be ratified after a No Deal Brexit had already taken place. If it took, say, another two or three weeks, or perhaps a month, to give MPs the time for scrutiny they so desire… then what would actually prevent this from being workable? Essentially, Britain would depart from the EU at 11pm in a week’s time, which would have instant ramifications as we are all well aware. All the arrangements and effects set out in decades of successive EU Treaties would immediately cease to apply to the UK… But is there any real reason why, after a few weeks of ratification, the transition arrangements set out in the Withdrawal Agreement could not simply snap (back) into effect immediately?  – Wolves of Westminster editorial

Philip Collins: Labour’s Brexit MPs deserve praise not spite

Brexit has no heroes. It is a sorry saga from which it is all but  impossible to emerge with credit. But let us take a moment to salute the 19 Labour MPs who voted to permit the prime minister’s deal to pass its second  reading in the Commons on Tuesday night. To those of them who stick with it until third reading, which will be by no means all, a double salute is due. These Labour MPs have, instead, been vilified. The anonymous online trolls have been vicious and plenty of people prepared to identify themselves have used the words traitors, cranks and worse. Sadly, Remain-fixated commentators have added to the anger. – Philip Collins for The Times (£)

Brexit in Brief

  • Bullish Tories have forgotten Farage remains a major threat to Boris – Nick Tyrone for the Express
  • The public are right to ignore the deliberate pessimism peddled by the downbeat elite – Douglas Carswell for the Telegraph (£)
  • Eurocrats never leave the EU gravy train — next thing you know I’ll be saying delaying Brexit was a good idea all along – John Longworth MEP for the Telegraph (£)
  • Number 10 drops its threat to go ‘on strike’ – Isabel Hardman for The Spectator
  • Will we ever have an election again? – Tom Slater for Spiked
  • Welcome to groundhog Brexit – Will Jones for ConservativeWoman
  • No, a written constitution would not have resolved Brexit  – Adam Ramshaw for Reaction
  • The pestilence of Brexit and the failure of the political class – Alex Massie for The Spectator