Gibraltar angered by Spain’s EU ‘veto’ Gibraltar has accused Spain of manipulating the European Council for its own political interests. A draft document on the EU’s Brexit strategy said no agreement on the EU’s future relationship with the UK would apply to Gibraltar without the consent of Spain, giving it a potential veto. But Gibraltar’s chief minister Fabian Picardo said this was “unacceptable”. Conservative MPs in the UK have warned that the sovereignty of the UK overseas territory is non-negotiable. MP Jack Lopresti said Spain was using Brexit as “a fig leaf for trouble making”, while fellow Tory Bob Neill tweeted “no sell out”. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson spoke to Mr Picardo as the UK government attempted to reassure Gibraltar and said: “As ever, the UK remains implacable and rock-like in our support for Gibraltar.” An EU source told the BBC the inclusion of the Gibraltar issue in the document had come after lobbying from Spain. – BBC Britain could lose Gibraltar in Brexit deal – City A.M. Gibraltar will be ‘even more British’ after Brexit, says chief minister Picardo – Sky News EU using Gibraltar as a bargaining chip is an early own goal – Oliver Duff for the I Trade talks in October if you sort out money and migrants, May told Theresa May will be able to start negotiations over a trade deal with Europe in October but only if she clears two hurdles set by Brussels.Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said yesterday that Mrs May must have made “sufficient progress” on the future of EU citizens in the UK and the formula for the “divorce” bill before free-trade talks. No 10 claimed it was relaxed that the EU was demanding a “phased” negotiation, with withdrawal talks first and trade later. Mr Tusk and his team were approaching the talks “constructively”, officials said. The decision on whether “sufficient progress” has been made needs a consensus among the 27 other EU nations.EU figures regard the two-year timetable as their biggest negotiating card and may not be afraid to delay the start of trade talks to put pressure on Britain. – The Times (£) EU rules out early trade talks with UK in Brexit process. – BBC EU’s Brexit negotiating stance revealed by European Council President Donald Tusk – Independent Trade talks within six months: Brussels boss Donald Tusk delivers huge Brexit boost to May – Daily Express Donald Tusk has outlined the EU’s Brexit negotiation strategy – City A.M. Tusk reveals his ten red lines for making deal with Britain – The Times (£) The EU’s draft Brexit guidelines look anything but punitive – Vincenzo Scarpetta for Reaction Sturgeon threatens new campaign of disruption over May’s stance that Brexit comes first Nicola Sturgeon has issued a thinly veiled threat to launch a campaign of disruption and non-cooperation if Theresa May refuses to compromise over an independence referendum. Scotland’s first minister sent her formal request for the power to hold a new vote to Mrs May yesterday. She argued that there was “no rational reason” why talks in the near future should be turned down. The prime minister will send her official response in the next few days but Downing Street made it clear that Mrs May was not prepared to soften her opposition to a new poll or even talks on one until after a Brexit deal was concluded. Ms Sturgeon wrote: “There appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish parliament and I hope you will not do so. However, in anticipation of your refusal to enter into discussions at this stage, it is important for me to be clear about my position. – The Times (£) In full: Nicola Sturgeon’s independence referendum letter to Theresa May – SkyNews EU delay on Brexit trade deal hits Sturgeon’s referendum timetable – Guardian Scotland’s formal request for a second independence referendum has been delivered to Theresa May – City A.M. Nicola Sturgeon’s guerilla strategy undermines Theresa May in Brussels – Alan Cochrane for the Daily Telegraph (£) Boris Johnson backpedals over security co-operation Boris Johnson insisted yesterday that Britain’s commitment to European security was “unconditional” amid a mounting backlash over Theresa May’s link between continued co-operation and a favourable Brexit deal. European leaders have widely condemned the prime minister for connecting security co-operation and trade in her letter to the European Union triggering Article 50. Mrs May made the connection 11 times in the letter and repeated it in articles in seven European newspapers, noting that the victims of last week’s Westminster attack included nationals of other EU countries. European leaders accused Mrs May of threatening to withdraw co-operation crucial for the safety of the Continent if they did not bow to her trade demands. In Brussels, however, the foreign secretary insisted that security collaboration would not be used as leverage for UK access to the single market. – The Times (£) Defence secretary refuses to rule out cuts – ITV Sterling’s fall boosted UK exports, figures show Britain’s trading position with the rest of the world improved markedly in the final three months of 2016, boosting hopes that the pound’s sharp fall since the Brexit vote can help the economy become less reliant on domestic spending. As sterling’s fall made UK goods more competitive on overseas markets and boosted exports, there was a significant narrowing in the UK’s current account deficit, the latest ONS growth figures showed. Economists said the rebalancing towards more exports would offset some but not all of the slowdown in consumer spending expected this year as incomes are squeezed. “While the drop in the pound is clearly boosting inflation, it is also having some offsetting positive impacts through bringing about a long-awaited rebalancing of the economy towards the external sector,” said Paul Hollingsworth at the consultancy Capital Economics. – The Guardian FTSE 100 finishes the quarter higher (just) as pound jumps – City A.M. UK may have to abide by EU laws during any Brexit transition phase Britain could be forced to accept EU law, immigration controls and budget payments after it formally leaves the bloc in 2019 if it wants a transitional period to cushion the blow of Brexit, the EU’s draft negotiating guidelines suggest. Published by the European council president, Donald Tusk, the guidelines contained a number of demands that could be difficult for Theresa May to sell to the public and the pro-Brexit element of her party, including an extended transitional deal that could spill into a 2020 general election. They offered a softened proposal to allow talks on Britain’s future relationship with the EU to begin after “sufficient progress” has been made on negotiating a withdrawal agreement, which would include settling the UK’s bills and citizens’ rights. – Guardian >Yesterday on BrexitCentral: The UK can legally sign new trade agreements before Brexit is complete – Andrew Lilico Theresa May’s target of cutting net migration to the tens of thousands is all but dead and buried, claim senior Tories Sources told the Sun that post-Brexit the Government believed voters are now content with idea Britain is going to be in “control” of its borders. One Cabinet Minister said: “No one’s talking about it anymore. “There’s no way 100,000 will be in the Immigration Bill – and I can’t see it being in the Manifesto when it comes to the next Election.” The claims came as the British Hospitality Association became the latest business group to warn their members faced a recruitment crisis if the door is closed to EU migrants once Brexit completes in March 2019. A study by KPMG for the BHA said EU migrants currently account for nearly a quarter of the three million hospitality workers – including 75 per cent of waiting staff, and 25 per cent of chefs. The 100,000 vow was first made by David Cameron in the run-up to the 2010 General Election. It was at the heart of the Brexit campaign. But free movement from the EU has seen the numbers soar. – The Sun The Times Editorial: Art of the Deal Smaller technical quibbles abound. The fate of Gibraltar is emerging as a possible flashpoint, as is the role of EU institutions in any transitional period. Most fundamental, though, is the principle that the EU says is at the heart of its strategy. An outsider cannot “enjoy the same benefits as a member”, says the council. Yet that is exactly what David Davis, secretary of state for exiting the EU, has told parliament that he is seeking. On many issues the positions of the two sides may seem irreconcilable, but they are not. The key will be to find a deal for each disagreement that both teams can sell to their supporters. The timing of talks is a case in point. The council already accepts there could be a “second phase” of negotiations which cover the future. If these start by the end of the year and there is some overlap with withdrawal talks, as Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty implies there must be, then the EU can tell a story of consecutive talks while the UK talks of concurrence. Such is the nature of international negotiations. – The Times editorial (£) Asa Bennett: Why is it fine for the EU to threaten Britain over Brexit, but not for Theresa May to state mere facts? European leaders have become rather hysterical after reading Theresa May’s letter confirming Britain’s intention to leave their club. They may all need to go and lie down in a dark room.Mrs May set out in her six-page epistle what would happen if Britain left without a deal being agreed over the next two years, but one line has set them off. “In security terms, a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.” – Asa Bennett for the Daily Telegraph (£) Andrew Lilico: Seven key British perspectives on the Brexit negotiations Theresa May seems to me to have signalled her intentions very clearly, since the EU referendum, such that anyone with a sense of British Conservatism knew what she’d do… Yet before her Lancaster House speech it was widely claimed that the UK government had given no hint as to its intentions. We have a similar dynamic playing out in respect of the Brexit negotiations. Many commentators, partly amongst some sections of the UK press but, in this context, particularly amongst the international press, claim the British will inevitably do this or that in the Brexit negotiations that there is no possibility of us doing. That could be dangerous, because it could easily lead to mistakes in the negotiating process, in which EU27 leaders misplay their hands, wrongly anticipating the British will or won’t do this or that, leading to negotiations breaking down. – Andrew Lilico for Reaction David Laws: Britain has a steely negotiator in Theresa May, as my fellow Liberal Democrats found in coalition So, article 50 has been triggered. The serious negotiations now begin. What can the people of the UK, and indeed the governments of the other 27 EU nations, expect from Theresa May as she goes in to bat for Britain? During the Coalition government I often had to negotiate with leading Conservatives, including Mrs May. What did this experience tell us about how she is likely to play her cards? – David Laws for the Daily Telegraph (£) Telegraph View: Theresa May must be ready to walk away from the EU The UK must be prepared to walk away from the Brexit negotiations without a deal. This week, Theresa May made a perfectly reasonable, even conciliatory, opening gambit to the EU. The EU has replied with insults and threats to the future of Gibraltar. If its goal is to tie us up in ridiculous distractions for two years, and even dictate the kind of economy that we will have after leaving, then Mrs May must make it clear that Britain would rather walk than talk. – Daily Telegraph Editorial Allister Heath: Business of Brexit Britain: your country needs you! Solving problems, finding solutions, aiming for the skies, all the while making as much money as possible: that is surely the core purposes of business. Which, of course, is a pretty handy set of skills now that Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty has been invoked. Great businesses thrive on disruption and change: they embrace the unknown and are vehicles to turn uncertainty into certainty. They are islands of sanity and relative calm in a turbulent world. – Allister Heath for the Daily Telegraph (£) Tim Montgomerie: Britain needs more than just Brexit – it needs a radical reboot Theresa May has got so much right since she became Prime Minister. She made it immediately clear that she would respect the referendum result – understanding that any attempt to ignore, frustrate or dilute the largest ever tally of votes in British history, risked undermining public faith in democracy for good. She understood that the vote for Brexit was partly a vote for a fairer Britain – in which politicians like her needed to strive harder to protect the casualties of our “multigeddon” era, when those with least margin for error are simultaneously hit by huge economic, security, technological and (too often forgotten) familial change. – Tim Montgomerie for CapX Fraser Nelson: Confirmed: UK economic growth accelerated after the Brexit vote All of the blank ink that the FT used on the day after the Brexit vote, all of those predictions of the job losses and recessions – and still, the economy still refuses to behave as those economists predicted. Not only did British economic growth actually accelerate after the Brexit vote (GDP now confirmed at 0.7pc up in the last three months of 2016) but the confidence continues. A Deloitte survey of chief financial officers finds their optimism at an 18-month high as they become more relaxed about Brexit. As has the Bank of England (see below). – Fraser Nelson for The Spectator Coffee House Janice Turner: Brexit doom-mongers are holding us all back This winter, weather-forecasting has grown ever more hyperbolic. Stormageddon! Thundersnow! This strange new naming of storms so they sound like devastating tropical typhoons. Yet people quickly deduced that Angus or Doris were nothing extraordinary, zipped up their cagoules and carried on. Likewise predictions about Brexit are increasingly terrifying. Cliff-edge, precipice, history going backwards, calamity, tragedy, doom . . . But here it seems the forecasters actually want the worst to happen. One arch-Remainer told me he hoped for a Marine Le Pen victory, Scotland to leave, hyper-inflation, a small European war . . . Even in milder personalities, an enduring hurt at losing has fused into a burning desire to scream “I told you so!” Not just at a crowing Nigel Farage or preposterous Jacob Rees-Mogg or Boris Johnson blustering that everything will be fine, but at every fellow citizen who voted Leave. – Janice Turner for The Times (£) Joseph Hackett: The Commission’s contempt for voters In Greece last month, the EU’s Economy Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, said the Commission would soon be coming out with a white paper for EU reform, which would include “ambitious ideas for the deepening of the economic and monetary union”. Two weeks later, the white paper came out as planned – but Moscovici’s “ambitious ideas” for the Eurozone were nowhere to be found.Their omission, it emerged, was no mistake. The Commission’s plans for the monetary union were dropped from the white paper, and it is now believed they will be published in a separate paper in late May. This just so happens to delay the proposals until after the Dutch election, the 60th anniversary celebrations for the Treaty of Rome (the EU’s founding document), and both rounds of the French election. – Joseph Hackett for CommentCentral Daily Mail Editorial: A welcome end to EU sabre rattling Since the referendum, we have had nothing from Brussels but endless aggressive threats. At every opportunity, grief-stricken eurocrats have warned of the brutal punishment Britain will face for daring to depart from their cosy club. With the help of hysterical Remainers – and the BBC echo chamber – their doom-mongering became the received wisdom. Britain, on bended knee, would have to accept whatever terms the EU deigned to offer. – Daily Mail Editorial Charles Moore: How many Remainers remain? Enough to throw a large spanner in the works A pro-Remain friend, an expert on the EU, tells me that in Brussels they retain a centuries-old continental belief in the cunning of British negotiators. Theresa May’s letter triggering Article 50 is therefore being minutely scanned for the diplomatic equivalents of malware. It never crosses their mind that perfidious Albion may have no more idea of what it is doing than they do. I feel a comparably suspicious deference towards Remainers. The pro-Europeans dominated our ruling elites for half a century, managing to push this country, whatever our protests, into ever-greater loss of sovereignty. So when, on June 23 last year, they definitely, visibly lost, I assumed they must have a fiendish back-up plan to turn democratic defeat into bureaucratic victory. – Charles Moore for the Daily Telegraph Brexit comment in brief Britain’s borrowing binge – not Brexit – should be the big worry for the Bank of England – Ross Clark for the Spectator Coffee House We need skilled negotiators to get best Brexit deal for Britain – Daily Mirror Editorial Let’s pay our Brexit “divorce bill” and get on with it – Rachel Cunliffe for Reaction Our exit from the EU will spur China’s path to world leadership – Andrew Sentance for the Daily Telegraph (£) Will the ultra-Remainers keep it up as long as the Jacobites? – Iain Martin for Reaction Why Brexit won’t deter overseas buyers in London’s prime property market – Will and Ben Samuels for City A.M. It’s time to deploy Princess Anne in a Union Jack dress – Matt Chorley for The Times (£) If Britain needs a new party, we’ll only find out after Brexit – Henry Hill for ConservativeHome Brexit news in brief Finding a design for a post-Brexit UK passport – BBC Daily Politics Cameron defends cashing in after leaving government with after-dinner speeches – The Sun Andrew Neil attacks Green deputy leader over Brexit jibe – Daily Express EU stands by under-fire boss Juncker and says his US break up remarks are ‘valid’ – Daily Express UK backs Trump demand for non-paying NATO members to ‘raise their game’ – Daily Express Record low saving and improving trade: five charts that show the state of Brexit Britain. – Szu Ping Chan for the Daily Telegraph And Finally… April 1st News EU to demand every British number plate is recalled by 2019 – Daily Express