Brexit News for Monday 8 May

Brexit News for Monday 8 May
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EU leaders hail Emmanuel Macron after his emphatic election triumph over Marine Le Pen

Emmanuel Macron was elected France’s youngest head of state since Napoleon last night after beating his far-Right rival Marine Le Pen in an 
emphatic result that will have far-reaching consequences for Brexit and Europe. Projections gave 39-year-old Mr Macron almost two thirds of the vote, showing a clear path to the Élysée Palace for the pro-EU centrist who was a political unknown until three years ago and has never held elected office. – Telegraph

  • Theresa May congratulates Macron on victory as EU breathes sigh of relief – Guardian
  • Newly elected French President Macron will play key role in Brexit process – ITV News
  • Emmanuel Macron will give little comfort to Theresa May in Brexit negotiations – Peter Foster for the Telegraph
  • Paris will be hoping the ‘Macron effect’ can strengthen its planned City scalp on back of Brexit – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the Telegraph

Bank of England to steady growth expectations this week

The Bank of England is expected to forecast steady economic growth for the year ahead, with GDP bouncing back from a sluggish start to the year. Mark Carney will present the latest Inflation Report on Thursday, a document which shows the Bank’s latest growth and inflation predictions as well as outlining any risks to the economy. Officials were wrong-footed by the Brexit vote last year, predicting a sharp slowdown but then being forced to hike their predictions in November and in February as the economy grew more quickly than expected. – Telegraph

Amber Rudd hints Tories might drop current migration target from manifesto…

Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, has hinted that the Conservatives’ aim of reducing net migration to tens of thousands will not appear as a commitment in the party’s election manifesto. Ms Rudd confirmed that the Conservatives were re-examining their target as she appeared to soften the party’s stance by describing immigration as an “absolute positive” for the UK. Asked if the “tens of thousands” figure that appeared in the 2015 manifesto would be repeated in the 2017 document, she said: “It’s not going to be identical to the last one. We’re setting it out for hopefully a five year term, we’ve got a lot to think through to work out what’s the best way to deliver on our priorities.” – Telegraph

…but BBC says Tories will keep pledge to cut migration to ‘tens of thousands’…

The Conservatives will once again promise to cut net migration to the “tens of thousands” in their election manifesto, the BBC understands. On Sunday, Home Secretary Amber Rudd refused to say whether the pledge – which was in the 2010 and 2015 Tory manifestos – would be repeated. But the BBC understands it will definitely be in the 2017 manifesto. The target, set by David Cameron in 2010, has never been met and recent figures put net migration at 273,000. The Conservative manifesto, setting out the party’s policies if it wins 8 June’s general election, is expected to be published next week. – BBC News

…as the CBI warns that EU immigrants are vital to the UK economy

European workers are crucial to the success of UK businesses and the wider economy, and the government must not shut off access to those staff, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned. Britain should have an immigration system “based on need” rather than an arbitrary 100,000 target, said Carolyn Fairbairn, the business group’s director general. Just as businesses ‘ physical supply chains are integrated into the EU economy as they buy and sell raw materials, parts and finished goods to and from the continent, they also send workers to and fro across the Channel, and it would be a serious blow if that flexibility is lost. – Telegraph

Mergers are the ‘key to pre-Brexit growth’

More than half of UK firms will actively pursue mergers and acquisitions in the next year as Brexit looms, research suggests. A survey by professional services giant EY found deals are increasingly seen as the key to growth and the number of companies expecting a boost through “organic” sources has dropped 11 per cent since October. Meanwhile, seven in 10 UK business cite geopolitical or emerging policy concerns as the greatest risk to economic growth. – The National

EU officials call for calm after week in which Brexit battle spiralled out of control…

It is time for both sides in the Brexit crisis to calm down, according to EU officials. But after a week in which relations between Britain and its closest international partners have deteriorated further, fears are growing that the political holdalls once wielded by Margaret Thatcher in her fights with Brussels may be battered beyond repair. Even by the standards of past standoffs, the feud over how Britain will end its 44-year membership of the European club has spiralled out of control at breakneck speed. Since Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election to strengthen her negotiating mandate, critics in Brussels have raced to correct what they see as her misplaced confidence. – Guardian

  • Meet the four men in charge of the EU’s Brexit negotiations: Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, Michel Barnier – City A.M.

…as Spiegel suggests Merkel was annoyed by Juncker over Brexit dinner with May

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is annoyed with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker over his behavior in negotiations over the U.K.’s departure from the European Union, Der Spiegel reported without saying where it got the information. Merkel’s annoyance is based on the leaking of details of Juncker’s April 26 dinner with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May to Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. The chancellery assumes Juncker, or his cabinet leader Martin Selmayr, informed the paper about the tone of the conversation, and inflaming the atmosphere between the EU and the U.K. wouldn’t be considered helpful, Spiegel reported. – Bloomberg

More than 20 ‘Remain’ MPs face election defeat from a new ‘Brexit Alliance’ of Tory and UKIP voters

More than 20 ‘Remain’ MPs face defeat in the General Election from a ‘Brexit Alliance’ of Tory and UKIP voters, the Sun can reveal. An expert pollster claims last week’s stunning local election results mean a third of the Labour and Lib Dems who voted against Brexit in the Commons could now lost their seats on June 8. – The Sun

Tories intensify attacks on Brussels, saying it supports Labour

Conservative ministers intensified attacks on Brussels on Sunday, with the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, suggesting the European commission had deliberately interfered in the general election to boost Labour’s electoral prospects. The home secretary, Amber Rudd, also condemned the “aggressive tactics” of the commission, after an unflattering account of talks at Downing Street was leaked to a German newspaper last week. Both Rudd and Hunt said the intervention had been timed to affect the result of the UK general election on 8 June. – Guardian

Nigel Farage admits UKIP may be over in two years

Nigel Farage has admitted that Ukip may only last another two years if Theresa May delivers the Brexit “voters wanted”. The former party leader said the Prime Minister had convinced many Ukip voters to switch to the Tories after using his “same words and phrases” to secure their support. It comes after the party’s biggest donor suggested Ukip is “finished as an electoral force” after it gained just a single seat and lost 114 in the local elections. – Telegraph

Anna Soubry: Tory election gains will allow Theresa May to ‘see off’ hard Brexit brigade

Tensions between the Prime Minister and Brussels have increased in the last week, with Mrs May accusing EU leaders of trying to interfere in the UK’s election campaign. Anna Soubry, who is seeking re-election as MP for Broxtowe, said it was not evidence that the Conservative leadership was taking a more hostile attitude towards the EU. Since the EU referendum Ms Soubry has repeatedly pushed the Government to seek a so-called “soft Brexit”, and she denied that a larger majority would mean her voice would be diluted by more “hard-line” anti-EU figures. – PoliticsHome

> On BrexitCentral’s YouTube channel – Anna Soubry: We’ve accepted the referendum result and moved on

City firms say they won’t be ready for Brexit in two years

City firms are making preparations for a hard Brexit even though they fear the two-year negotiation period for the UK for the EU will not be long enough for them to complete the complex restructuring needed, according to a report published on Monday. The analysis by legal firm Freshfields found, however, that fewer City jobs may move to other financial centres than might have been expected following the triggering of article 50 – the formal process of leaving the EU – in March. – Guardian

Banksy claims responsibility for giant Brexit painting in Dover

Street artist Banksy has laid claim to a massive Brexit-themed painting in Dover. A three-storey version of the European Union flag appeared painted on to a residential building, on Saturday morning, near the ferry port off the A20 in the Kent seaside town. The monochrome image stencilled onto the painting, depicting a man chiseling off one of the 12 stars, is a consistent calling card of the urban artist. – Telegraph

Peter Foster: Why money is Europe’s Achilles heel in Brexit talks

It is a truism that all divorces come down to the money, and the coming EU-UK Brexit talks are absolutely no exception. The demand for a €100bn euro settlement – recently inflated from a ‘mere’ €60bn according to new calculations by the Financial Times – speaks to the high level of agitation on the EU side that the UK might not cough up the cash. As we report today, not even the European Commission’s own lawyers believe some of the latest demands to be legally sustainable, but they are apparently impotent to stop the member states from escalating the €60bn ‘bill’ – which was itself already a stretch, legally speaking. – Peter Foster for the Telegraph (£)

Jonathan Ford: Punishment is no recipe for a Brexit agreement

EU leaders have been quick to criticise the UK for its deluded approach to pursuing a Brexit deal with Brussels. Just one dinner with Theresa May seems to have convinced Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, that the prime minister was “living in another galaxy”, according to leaked reports in the German press. There is no doubting the divisions, but is it fair to point the finger solely at the British? Brussels’ exasperation stems mainly from its perception that Britain should not be seen to retain all the benefits of EU membership without the obligations. Understandably perhaps, it worries that this would imperil the cohesion of the union. That is why, in his own infelicitous phrase, Mr Juncker argues that Brexit “cannot be a success”. – Jonathan Ford for the FT (£)

Guy Verhofstadt: We can deliver a Brexit deal that works for all

As the European Parliament has proposed, the EU and the UK should aim to achieve a future association agreement, which is ambitious and strong. This should be a positive partnership, which goes beyond trade, to include security and defence co-operation. Mrs May has made clear Britain is leaving the EU but it is not leaving the continent of Europe. Nevertheless, as with any complicated divorce, preliminary discussions about a future partnership can only start when there is clarity about how the existing relationship is dissolved. Soon, the phoney war will be over. I am confident the gulf between the EU and the UK government can be bridged, but achieving this will require cool heads, a dose of reality, a dash of common sense and an acknowledgment that a failure to reach a deal would not be in the long-term political or economic interests of either side. – Guy Verhofstadt for the FT (£)

Mark Littlewood: It’s game on for Theresa May and she has some ultra-hard choices to make

When Mrs May is re-elected next month, she will have an unhampered ability to pick her own team and design her own match plan. This probably will involve aiming for a free-trade deal with the EU but escaping nearly all its institutional structures. However, like all canny managers and unlike her immediate predecessor, she will need a Plan B if things go awry. If she doesn’t think through that fallback option of a diamond rather than a merely hard Brexit, she may face the same fate as Claudio Ranieri. Having spectacularly won the league title for Leicester City, he ran out of ideas when the going got tough and was fired ignominiously less than a year later. – Mark Littlewood for The Times (£)

Catherine McGuinness: Remember the City’s strengths as we take the difficult path towards Brexit

As I write this column, I am fresh into my new role as policy chairman of the City of London Corporation and am setting out my aims and goals for the next five years. I want to see a vibrant, thriving City contributing to the prosperity and well-being of the capital and the country. And I am determined that the City of London Corporation will continue to play its part in making this happen. – Catherine McGuinness for City A.M.

Brexit comment in brief

  • Dealing with Brexit will mean striking the right balance over banking – Oliver Kamm for The Times (£)
  • How to make Brexit the insurance industry’s next big opportunity – Mark Field for City A.M.
  • The European Court of Justice is not an impartial court and has no role to play in post-Brexit EU-UK relations – Gunnar Beck for Policy Exchange
  • This election, doorstep reaction – and why we must focus the Brexit conversation on economic security – Nicky Morgan for ConservativeHome

Brexit news in brief

  • Rasputin of Brussels gets a taste of his own poison – The Times (£)
  • Third of Brits willing to vote tactically to stop hard Brexit – poll – PoliticsHome
  • Business groups call for EU trade deal and venture capital fund protection – Telegraph
  • Brexit is making rent cheaper in London for the first time in nearly a decade – Business Insider
  • Honorary consuls struggle with Brexit caseload – FT (£)