Sign up here to receive this daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team French presidential favourite Macron may drive a hard bargain in Brexit talks… The current favourite to become president in the French election could spell bad news for the UK government in talks on Brexit should he win. If Emmanuel Macron succeeds in the second round on 7 May, which he is currently favourite to do, he is likely to drive a hard bargain in Brexit negotiations. The former economy minister, who resigned to campaign for change, has been an outspoken critic of the UK’s decision to leave the UK. In his election manifesto he described Brexit as a “crime” that will leave the UK facing “servitude”. The independent centrist favours a hard Brexit that would leave the EU outside of the single market, and has stressed the importance of “defending the integrity” of the EU’s intertwined freedoms of movement and trade. – The Guardian …but a victory for the centrist europhile could ultimately be good for Brexit In Brussels, a Macron win will be interpreted as an affirmation of support for the European Union. Forget the fact that support for ‘Frexit’ candidates exceeded 40 per cent (and not forgetting the one-in-five voters who supported Fillon), the European establishment will read this as an endorsement of the status quo… But what does it mean for Brexit? Counterintuitively, a Macron win is good for Britain. Following Norbert Hofer’s defeat in the Austrian presidential election, Geert Wilders’ failure to top the polls in the Netherlands and Le Pen’s (likely) defeat, populism is being interpreted as an interesting Anglo-Saxon phenomena in 2016, which failed to cross the channel/Atlantic to the continent in 2017. This will quell the fears that the Brexit vote would trigger a series of exit votes in other member states. – Matthew Elliott for City A.M. An Emmanuel Macron presidency, weakened from the outset, would be bad news for Britain, the euro and EU – Peter Foster for the Daily Telegraph (£) Macron won’t win by a landslide – Matthew Elliott for The Times (£) The EU breathes easy for now, but politics as usual is no longer an option for France – Daily Telegraph editorial Britain’s back in favour for corporate deals – ‘despite Brexit’ Britain has reclaimed its place as one of the top five countries that firms look to make deals in, just six months after dropping off the list in the wake of the country’s surprise to leave the European Union, according to a survey released Monday. In its half-yearly report of business executives, consulting firm EY said Britain has rebounded to be the third most attractive destination for mergers and acquisitions, behind the U.S. and China. Last October, in the wake of the Brexit vote, it had slumped to seventh and out of the top five for the first time in EY’s seven-year history of assessing deal intentions. Steve Krouskos, EY’s global head of transactions, said he was unsurprised by the turnaround. Irrespective of the Brexit vote, Krouskos said, Britain remains a “major force in the global economy and a center of deal-making activity.” – Associated Press Tony Blair so passionate about blocking “hard” Brexit he is considering a return to frontline politics Tony Blair has said that he feels so “passionate” about blocking a hard Brexit that he is considering a return to front-line politics. The former Prime Minister said that Theresa May is on course for a landslide majority and suggested that Jeremy Corbyn stands no chance of becoming Prime Minister. He said that he wants to add a “new dimension” to the election by encouraging voters to support candidates who do not back a hard Brexit, even if they are Liberal Democrat or Tory. – Daily Telegraph Tony Blair on Brexit: We are being hijacked by a small group of people with a strong ideology – i News Corbyn hits back at Blair after former PM’s call to put party allegiances aside – The Guardian Labour comes together to condemn Tony Blair’s ‘anti-Brexit alliance’ call – Politics Home Liberal Democrats promise second Brexit referendum The Liberal Democrats will offer British voters a second referendum on Brexit in their manifesto for June’s election. Tim Farron, the leader, said his party had a duty to offer a distinct alternative to the Tories and Labour, who both support a clean break with the EU. He added that the party raised £1.6m in donations in the four days following the announcement of the general election. The Lib Dems have said they wish to represent those who voted for the UK to remain in the EU. The Lib Dems want to neutralise Tory claims that a vote for their party could lead to a “coalition of chaos” involving any number of left-leaning parties from Labour to the Scottish National party and Greens. – FT (£) Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund boss whose support for the Lib Dems soured over its stance on the EU – FT (£) Builders bullish despite post-Brexit vote price increases Small construction firms enjoyed rising workloads in the first quarter of 2017 despite concerns over the cost of labour and materials in the wake of last year’s Brexit vote, according to a survey by the Federation of Master Builders (FMB). The FMB’s state of trade survey showed that in the three months to March 2017 one-in-two construction SMEs predict rising workloads in the coming months, with only 5 per cent predicting a decrease in activity. Brian Berry, chief executive of the FMB, said: “The first three months of 2017 proved to be very positive for construction SMEs, which reported strong growth, underpinned by continuing resilience in the home improvement sector.” – City A.M. Sterling weakness sees dividends jump by 16 per cent Dividends reached £15.3billion for the first quarter as multinationals enjoyed an exchange rate boost on their overseas earnings when converting them back into pounds, according to Capita Asset Services. The report said dividends also rose 9.5 per cent to £15.4billion on a headline basis for the first three months of the year, with growth impacted by a steep decline in special dividends. Justin Cooper, chief executive of Shareholder Solutions, part of Capita Asset Services, said the “sugar rush” of exchange rate gains would not be enough to satisfy investors in the long term. – Daily Express UK businesses resistant to post-Brexit employment law changes The UK’s exit from the EU could prompt extensive changes in employment laws. However, employers are only expressing demand for significant change in a few areas, such as sick leave and discrimination law. A survey conducted by GQ Employment Law suggests that only five per cent of businesses are looking for ‘dramatic’ change post-Brexit, whereas 65 per cent of companies would like to see “some” change. Just 30 per cent of businesses opposed all forms of change. – City A.M. Sir James Dyson: With education and technology, Brexit Britain can engineer its way to greater prosperity The world is gripped by a technology race and those countries or companies that fail to recognise this will very quickly fall behind. My constant refrain to all politicians is: “Put your faith in engineers and in revolutionary technology – invest in them and give them a supportive environment that encourages risk-taking and new ideas.” Britain is now in a uniquely advantageous position to become a world leader in technology, exploiting the new-found trading freedom that comes from leaving the European Union. We can operate in a business-friendly regulatory environment, negotiate directly with other markets (in particular, Asia) and sell our high-technology goods, boosting the balance of payments in the process. – Sir James Dyson for the Daily Telegraph (£) Andrew Parmley: It’s more vital than ever that Britain looks beyond Europe to forge commercial ties As part of my role, I travel the world seeking out investment opportunities for British businesses that will not only create high-quality jobs for our partners overseas, but also long-term growth investments for UK firms. North Africa is a part of the world with many such opportunities to uncover. I recently returned from a visit to Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco at the head of a City business delegation. During our time in Algiers, Tunis and Casablanca, we were able to identify much potential for UK business, in a region with bountiful natural resources and an increasingly global outlook. – Andrew Parmley for City A.M. Clare Foges: Time to take control of illegal immigration You are slumped at your desk in Downing Street past 1am, working on a speech on immigration, your desk littered with empty crisp packets, Larry the cat staring at you witheringly. You must finish this speech for the prime minister with a tough flourish; the government will “clamp down”, “crack down”, get down down, deeper and down to tens of thousands of migrants (net) a year. Reaching into the cupboard of hyperbole you find it bare and so end the speech with a slightly lame “no ifs, no buts”. That was me in 2011 and, of course, in the following years there emerged several ifs and not a few buts. Net migration soared, and those of us writing Cameron’s speeches would dance around the tens of thousands target, reframing it as an aspiration, a goal, a rather-nice-to-have. – Clare Foges for The Times (£) Juliet Samuel: Theresa May is showing the EU that defeating populism requires listening to voters Recently, EU president Jean-Claude Juncker made an odd and revealing remark. Addressing the European Parliament on the topic of Brexit, he declared: “The choice of the British people, however respectable it may be, does not fit into the march of history, not European history and not global history.” Even now, as Britain prepares to leave and France is dangerously closer to electing an anti-EU, populist firebrand, true Brussels believers cling to a central article of faith: whatever happens, history is on our side. If something should derail the EU project, it is not part of history, but an aberration from its natural order. This mind-set goes a long way towards explaining why the EU is in such a dysfunctional mess. – Juliet Samuel for the Daily Telegraph (£) David Goodhart: Does Brexit mean England can have Englishness? Brexit is often said to be driven by English nationalism. In recent decades England has certainly become a less shy country, made aware of itself thanks to the growth of Scottish and Welsh national consciousness and the banal fact that we now talk about the English NHS, English schools, and so on, in a way that we never used to prior to devolution. Yet on today’s English national day I saw not a single flag of St George flying on the train journey from London to Cambridge and back (travelling through Essex, supposedly one of the heartlands of English nationalism). And when I opened my Sunday papers I found no reference to it at all. (Though Jeremy Corbyn did briefly grab the lead item on the BBC News with his suggestion of a national holiday on St George’s day.) – David Goodhart for The Spectator Brexit comment in brief Scotland, Separation and the Brexit Question – David Roach for the Bruges Group A large Tory majority would weaken the UK’s hand in Brexit talks – Anand Menon for The Times (£) Brexit news in brief Aldershot Tories threaten revolt over party’s refusal to offer MEP Dan Hannan as a potential candidate – ConservativeHome Paul Nuttall says UKIP may not stand against pro-Brexit Conservative and other MPs – YouTube Theresa May urged by Scottish trade unions to increase Holyrood’s powers as part of the Brexit process’ – The Times (£) Brexit talks place citizens’ rights in limbo – EurActiv Citic’s chairman says Brexit basn’t dented investment – Bloomberg Ukip leader Paul Nuttall refuses to say whether he will stand for election on 8th June – Daily Telegraph George Osborne ‘disrespected’ Parliament by taking newspaper job – Daily Telegraph