Brexit News for Friday 5 May

Brexit News for Friday 5 May
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Tusk taken to task for patronising ‘emotional’ May

Donald Tusk was criticised yesterday after he appeared to suggest that Theresa May’s “emotions” could derail Brexit talks. Speaking on behalf of the 27 EU member states, Mr Tusk, president of the European Council, sought to defuse the row between Britain and Brussels over the impending talks. “These negotiations are difficult enough as they are. If we start arguing before they even begin, they will become impossible,” he said. “The stakes are too high to let our emotions get out of hand because at stake are the daily lives and interests of millions of people on both sides of the Channel. We must keep in mind that in order to succeed we need today discretion, moderation, mutual respect and a maximum of good will.” His comments were interpreted in Downing Street as a rebuke to the European Commission president’s chief of staff, who is suspected of briefing against the prime minister after a dinner in Downing Street last week. The leak led Mrs May to accuse the commission of attempting to interfere in the general election. However, some in the Conservative Party called the comments patronising and sexist. – The Times (£)

  • EU’s Tusk warns lack of respect could make Brexit talks ‘impossible’. – FT (£)
  • Tusk blasts ‘indiscreet’ Juncker and ‘emotional’ MayGuido Fawkes
  • Donald Tusk steps in to relieve Brexit tensions – James Forsyth for The Spectator

David Davis: European Commission trying to bully UK

David Davis has accused the European Commission of “trying to bully the British people” following negative stories about Brexit negotiations. The Brexit secretary said a “line was crossed” when stories suggested the UK could face a 100bn euro “exit bill”.He said there had been a “deliberately misleading briefing” after a dinner with the PM and Jean-Claude Juncker. … Mr Davis backed the prime minister during an appearance on BBC One’s Question Time, criticising stories which appeared suggesting the UK could be hit with a bill twice as much as previously reported. “Clearly what was happening was the commission was trying to bully the British people – and the British people will not be bullied, and the government will not allow them to be bullied,” Mr Davis said. “So she made the point she made, and she was right to do so.” – BBC

European Union set for ‘explosive’ political crisis if Britain doesn’t cough up billions for a divorce bill, chief Brexit negotiator in Brussels admits

Michel Barnier also has repeated claims that our exit from the bloc will not be quick or painless in a sign that Brussels are determined to make us suffer. And he warned that there would be “political and legal” implications if Britain refuses to cough up the cash – and that it was “incontestable” that we would have to pay. At a press conference in Brussels yesterday he told an audience that it was an “illusion” to think that things could be wrapped up quickly – and that there would be “explosive” consequences if we didn’t pay up. The news came before Theresa May delivered a damning speech on the steps of Downing Street accusing Brussels chief of meddling in our election. – The Sun

Breaking down Britain’s EU divorce bill: who owes what and why?

Leaving the EU will cost the UK far less than €100 billion even if the government were to accede to every financial demand made by European negotiators, an analysis of official figures shows. The rise from the previous estimate of €60 billion has been attributed to new demands from member states to cover the cost of farm subsidies and Brussels bureaucracy for a year after Britain officially leaves the bloc.An analysis of the EU accounts by the Brussels think tank Bruegel suggests that even factoring in the new demands would result in a lower bill than the one widely cited. Depending on the scenario the net Brexit bill could range from €25.4 billion to €65.1 billion. The final settlement will depend on fundamental political choices. Britain sees Brexit as a divorce where both assets and liabilities should be split. Brussels sees Brexit as Britain leaving a club where it needs to pay its outstanding membership fees and gets nothing in return. – Oliver Wright and Henry Zeffman for The Times (£)

Formal Brexit talks should be conducted in rigorous four-week cycles

Formal Brexit talks should be conducted in rigorous four-week cycles, in Brussels, with progress published once a month, according to proposals from EU officials. The EU also maintains that the U.K. must pick up the tab for the negotiations, including all technical expenses, such as travel costs — essentially sparing the EU budget from Britain’s decision to leave the bloc. It is no secret that the two sides are still miles apart on key substantive issues — not least the U.K.’s financial obligations — but so far even basic details about how the talks will be conducted have yet to be agreed. No decision even has been taken on the first topic for discussion.- Politico

EU launches fresh bid to strip City of euro trade

The European Commission has embarked on another attempt to claim the City’s vast and lucrative euro clearing market in a move that could jeopardise 80,000 jobs. London’s status as a global centre for euro-denominated derivatives has been thrown into fresh doubt by Brexit. Even before last June’s referendum the European Central Bank tried to bring the market under its jurisdiction because it was unhappy that a market posing a systemic risk to the eurozone could happen outside the bloc.The commission set out proposals yesterday to regulate the derivatives market, including possible “location requirements”.- The Times (£)

  • Phillip Hammond says he will fight an EU swoop on City of London trade – Independent
  • Chancellor Philip Hammond warns new City rules could cause havoc across EuropeThe Sun
  • We all stand to lose if Brussels locks London out of clearing – Juliet Samuel for The Telegraph

Brexit on Display in new £44 million EU History Museum

There was chatter this morning that Brussels’ newly opened House of European History – a £44 million vanity project funded by the continent’s taxpayers – would make no mention of Brexit. Fear not. Apparatchiks chronicling the bloc’s official history have installed two modest display cabinets dedicated to the most seismic European political event in recent times. Vote Leave wins with both a badge and t-shirt on display, alongside a referendum ballot paper. – Guido Fawkes

Matthew Elliott and Kory Swanson: British-American trade is crucial in the era of Brexit and Trump

This is not a zero-sum game: The European Union does not want to look across the negotiating table and see a country riven by internal divisions and disputes over its own negotiating position. European leaders have welcomed the British election for the stability and clarity it seems set to inject into the negotiations. Across the English Channel, the likely election of centrist Emmanuel Macron as the next French president will also bring a welcome dose of stability to continental European politics. European leaders will be more self-confident and prepared to negotiate a mutually beneficial agreement with the U.K. once they feel they have successfully ridden the populist wave and the risk of perceived “Brexit contagion” has subsided. Most importantly, the twin elections will encourage a Brexit that ensures the continued stability of the global economy. May will now have a five-year window up to 2022 in which to complete the negotiations and implement a new agreement with the E.U. – Matthew Elliott and Kory Swanson for The Conservative

Spectator: Britain must get ready to walk away from Brexit negotiations

Rather than being drawn into the briefing wars, she ought to start making preparations to walk away. Publishing a contingency plan would show that the ‘no deal’ scenario is far from disastrous: World Trade Organisation rules ban the EU from inflicting punishing tariffs or quotas on British goods. A tariff of about 4.5 per cent would be an irritant, but easily offset by a fall in sterling. WTO rules have governed Britain’s relations with the United States, our biggest single trading partner. If the EU is in no state to agree a deal now, then it makes perfect sense to walk away and revert to WTO default rules for a while, seeking to strike an agreement with the EU when it is finally able to do so. It cannot be stressed often enough that we are not leaving Europe — only a cumbersome union of countries with which somehow we will continue to do business. Good relations with our neighbours will outlast our membership of the European Union, and very possibly, given the dissent seen in France and elsewhere, the EU itself. – Spectator editorial

Paul Goodman: May throws not a dead cat, but a live lion on the table

It may be lost on the other side of the channel that the Conservative vote is more likely than otherwise to rise as a result.  But be that as it may, the core of Juncker’s view is contained in words leaked to that German paper: “Brexit cannot be a success”.  The Prime Minister cannot sign up to a settlement which embodies that view.  Nor can she expected to agree that her own proposals – which include a swift settlement to the status of EU nationals, an outcome that Remainers here have been clamouring for – are simply not worth discussing, and that she herself is a few cents short of the full Euro.  So by acting as she has, May has seized the moment.  And by speaking out openly when her opponents briefed in secret, she has made them look small and herself rather bigger. – Paul Goodman for ConservativeHome

Philip Collins: May’s petulance won’t bring victory in Europe

Margaret Thatcher’s Bruges speech in September 1988 was devised as an opportunity for the prime minister to lavish praise on partners. The early drafts even included a section on sophisticated European cuisine spurring British cooks to greater heights. Then, while drafts were circulating, Mrs Thatcher heard Jacques Delors on the Jimmy Young programme on Radio 2 and took umbrage at his hint that he liked the idea of a single European government. She opened with the observation that asking her to speak “must seem rather like inviting Genghis Khan to speak on the virtues of peaceful coexistence”. It went downhill from there — and so might Theresa May now she has had her Jimmy Young moment.- Philip Collins for The Times (£)

Simon French: Why the UK Economy is stronger than people think

Since last June’s referendum, the UK economy has seen a 12 per cent depreciation in the value of the pound, a loosening of monetary policy from the Bank of England, and a slowdown in the pace of government austerity. The impact of these three changes has been to provide stimulus to the economy as it seeks momentum ahead of Brexit in 2019. After moderate output growth of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, all three of this week’s purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) point to a decent start to the second quarter. Furthermore, the ongoing impact of stimulus – combined with an accelerating global economy – should support steady growth in the UK economy during the second half of 2017. Simon French for City A.M.

Frederick Forsyth: Why does the EU hide its accounts?

In all the argy-bargy about Britain’s supposed £50 billion divorce bill from the EU there is one possible solution I have not seen mentioned.So permit me… Any company hiding its accounts would rapidly attract the attention of the Serious Fraud Office and the EU has never provided its accounts – examined and endorsed by the Court of Auditors as demanded by its own constitution – for 20 years, maybe more. Perhaps we should agree to consider the divorce bill demanded of us only if the EU will fulfil its duty by providing these accounts back to the last time they appeared.The reason the EU is so shy about its accounts is the suspicion that staggering sums over the years have simply “gone missing”. Frederick Forsyth for the Express

Brexit comment in brief

  • How to make Brexit the insurance industry’s next big opportunity – Mark Field for City A.M.
  • Theresa May – the Dunkirk prime minister – Alex Massie for CapX
  • May’s Brexit rant was cynical, weak and just plain wrong – Chuka Umunna for LabourList
  • The Erdoğan of Downing Street, a Le Pen in No 10: that’s how Merkel sees May – Stephan Richter for the Guardian
  • What Eurosceptics can get out of the General Election – Joseph Hackett for Reaction
  • Ken Livingsgtone said he’d leave the country if we voted Brexit; why is he still here? – Jayne Adye for Comment Central
  • The outcome of the general election is irrelevant to the EU officials – Independent Editorial
  • The real cost of Brexit is the lost opportunity – Anthony Hilton for the Evening Standard
  • Theresa May is destroying Britain’s reputation in the EU and jeopardising negotiations – Willliam Wallace for the Independent
  • Why has the pound shrugged off Theresa May’s EU argy-bargy? – Nils Pratley for The Guardian

     

  • Welcome to Theresa May’s campaign war room – Tom Mctague for Politico

  • I’m supporting Marine Le Pen – Nigel Farage for The Telegraph

Brexit news in brief

  • Slick Macron triumphs over Le Pen in France’s feisty TV debate – Gavin Mortimer for the Spectator
  • Pound climbs after rebound in UK services sector – Telegraph
  • EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker ‘very visibly drunk’ at major UN summit in Geneva – The Sun
  • Goldman Sachs chief says City of London ‘will stall’ as a result of split Independent

Brexit sketch

  • Brexit dinner: live leaking the second serving – Robert Shrimsley for the FT (£)
  • Murder on the Brexit Express – Richard Littlejohn for the Daily Mail