The forthcoming prorogation makes No Deal almost inevitable

The forthcoming prorogation makes No Deal almost inevitable

Her Majesty the Queen’s approval of the Prime Minister’s request to prorogue Parliament has sent Remain-supporting Westminster into meltdown. Boris Johnson pitched the move as a way of preparing for a Queen’s Speech on 14th October following the prorogation, which is of course the formal mechanism that ends a parliamentary session. What makes the decision by Johnson to prorogue Parliament at this time so interesting is that it is both necessary and convenient. The current parliamentary session (which started in June 2017) is the longest for almost 400 years. The prorogation of Parliament is almost required at this point, but it is set to last longer than usual. The Prime Minister can honestly say that this is a necessity, although it would be hard for him to argue that it doesn’t assist efforts to stop anti-democracy campaigners from cancelling Brexit.

That’s exactly how I see it, not least because a ‘Remain Alliance’ fronted by Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson and a host of other radical Remainers has repeatedly threatened to bring down Johnson and his Cabinet to stop Brexit either through legislative means or a temporary government. MPs from every party except the DUP have explicitly stated that they will do everything possible to stop a no-deal Brexit from happening, with some going as far as stating they intend to cancel Brexit altogether. The Independent Group for Change’s Anna Soubry campaigns on a message to stop Brexit and initiate a second referendum, as does Swinson, along with a number of Independents, Conservative MPs and Labour frontbenchers.

Boris Johnson promised that his new Government would fulfil the repeated promises of Parliament to the people, and ensure the UK leaves the EU on 31st October. He said it the moment he took office, standing outside No. 10, and it’s a promise that can only be fulfilled by stopping those in Parliament working to cancel Brexit. No matter what Johnson might say, I would suggest that this prorogation of Parliament has been designed specifically to allow his Government to achieve three things:

  1. To reduce the amount of time that Brexit-hating fanatics have to introduce legislation that could stop Brexit.
  2. To allow his Government and civil servants to continue their focus on preparing for the possibility of No Deal.
  3. To give Parliament (and the EU) a final chance to agree to a deal – something they have failed to do three times during Theresa May’s leadership – following any possible last-minute negotiations.

It is a strategic decision that is likely to work, which is why a great many political commentators, MPs and protestors are losing their collective minds. On Wednesday night, protesters took to the streets, with many sitting down outside the gates of Downing Street to stop anyone entering or exiting. Independent MP Heidi Allen suggested the move was part of a “Brexit coup”, hundreds of thousands of people signed a petition in protest, Owen Jones claimed “our unelected Prime Minister has started a war with our democracy” and #AbolishTheMonarchy trended on Twitter.

Amidst this chaos, the most common line of attack you’ll hear against Johnson is that he does not have a mandate, having become Prime Minister following a party leadership election. They suggest that he is attacking our democracy by refusing to allow elected representatives to do their job. Yet it is a great irony that those who have campaigned to stop the implementation of a decision made by the British people now claim to be campaigning to protect democracy.

Their claim that this is a “Brexit coup” is demonstrably wrong, too. Prorogation of Parliament is a constitutional procedure, regardless of its length. It was introduced by the leader of a governing party elected by the people, signed by the Head of State in accordance with precedent, and to top it all off, will ensure the greatest likelihood that the politicians cannot stop Brexit from happening. Since the British people were promised “the government will implement what you decide” in 2016, Johnson’s decision to request the prorogation of Parliament is the antithesis of a coup: it is democratic, it is legal and it is not violent. It is a strategic move that, whether they want to accept it or not, protects the integrity of our democracy and potentially maintains some level of faith in British politicians.

Johnson’s move was divisive precisely because it offers hope that the result of the referendum will be delivered. Many in both the media and political classes are desperate to stop that from happening.

Another great irony is that the politicians who have tried at every turn to stop No Deal are the ones who caused this to happen in the first place. Don’t forget, even Nigel Farage was advocating a deal with Europe during the referendum campaign. Brexiteers didn’t rule out No Deal, but still expressed a clear desire to reach a mutually beneficial agreement with the EU. It wasn’t the Brexiteers who made this happen, but the parliamentarians who refused to pass the Withdrawal Agreement or work constructively with Theresa May’s Government to achieve a compromise deal.

Now, No Deal is almost inevitable.

Parliament voted to hold a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. Parliament also voted for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act. Parliament then voted for the EU Withdrawal Act. Then it rejected a deal three times over. With no willingness to compromise, and an inability to offer any workable alternatives to May’s Withdrawal Agreement, No Deal is the natural conclusion and now the most likely result of this three-year arduous process.

Those same anti-Brexit ideologues may also be the reason Johnson wins a snap general election in the coming weeks or months. Meg Russell, a senior fellow from UK in a Changing Europe, said on Wednesday that the Prime Minister was “daring MPs to vote him out of office” – and perhaps he is. We could soon see the vote of no confidence Jeremy Corbyn has been threatening for weeks, and maybe a general election is right around the corner. As it stands, though, the Remain camp just won’t win. Polls consistently show a Tory lead, with the Brexit Party’s voteshare shifting between 5% and 15%. Depending on whether a non-aggression pact can be agreed between the Tories and the Brexit Party, Johnson could win an immediate general election that some senior Tories want him to call.

And should he deliver a clean Brexit on October 31st, the Brexit Party will have served its purpose and there would be little reason for anyone to vote for them again. Just like the voters abandoned UKIP in 2017, they would abandon the Brexit Party after No Deal and – in the main – flock back to the Tories.

The ideologues, extremists and anti-democracy campaigners on the Remain side bewail the likelihood of No Deal, but they created this mess. Thanks to them, Britain will almost certainly be leaving the European Union without a deal, and it’s likely Boris Johnson will gain an increased Tory majority in the coming general election. They made their bed, and now they’re going to have to lie in it.