Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Dominic Raab says No Deal is ‘not remotely likely’ Dominic Raab has downplayed the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal following the second phase of the Brexit process. The foreign secretary (pictured) said ‘I don’t think it’s remotely likely’ when asked if a no-deal would take place if the UK failed to secure its fishing objectives in trade talks. Critics have warned such an outcome could still occur at the end of next year given the lack of time to negotiate the future EU-UK relationship. Pressed if Britain would compromise on fishing, Mr Raab told The Andrew Marr Show: ‘No, no, we’re going to be an independent coastal state but we’ll take the best interests of the UK on board. ‘We’re not going to be locked in to a set of EU rules targeted and tailored towards the best interests of the Europeans, and actually it’ll be a compromise.’ – Metro > WATCH: Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab on The Andrew Marr Show Boris Johnson seeks to build Brexit bridges with business by pledging tax breaks to help small businesses… Boris Johnson will offer businesses a series of tax breaks today as he seeks to repair relations damaged by Brexit. The prime minister and Jeremy Corbyn will set out their rival pitches in speeches to the CBI. Mr Johnson will pledge to hand small firms a £1,000 tax break by lifting to £4,000 an allowance they can claim against employer’s national insurance contributions. More generous allowances for business premises and research and development take the overall package from the Tories to £1 billion. Mr Johnson will also promise an immediate “fundamental review” of business rates, leading to a reduction of its “overall burden” on firms and employers. The prime minister will acknowledge that “big business didn’t want Brexit”. He will say that repeated delays and threats of a no-deal Brexit mean that ministers have been “marching businesses up to the top of the hill, only to march them down again”, adding: “While you didn’t want it, the people did vote for it. And so it was for politicians to deliver it.” Conservative campaign headquarters were unable to expand on the terms of reference for the review of the business rates or provide a timetable, beyond saying that it would be included in the first budget of a Tory government and that ministers would “consult widely”. – The Times (£) Leaders woo business with tax and apprenticeship vows – BBC News …as CBI’s Dame Carolyn Fairbairn warns leaders that the UK cannot afford another year of “political paralysis” Confederation of British Industry (CBI) director-general Dame Carolyn Fairbairn said next month’s election is an “extraordinary” one for business, hailing 2020 as the most important year in a generation due to recent uncertainty over Brexit. Commenting on the prime minister ruling out an extension to the transition period, Dame Carolyn said: “One of the things I think is really important to understand is that if you are in business, living through the last three years, these rolling cliff-edges of climbing up a mountain with stockpiling and then climbing down again, could not be more damaging.” She added: “Let’s make sure that we don’t end up with yet another cliff-edge, possibly in June, or possibly at the end of December. Because every time we do that we take investment away from our country.” – Irish News > WATCH: CBI Chief Carolyn Fairbairn discusses what businesses want from Brexit and the next government Conservatives promise ‘equal’ immigration system… The Conservatives have set out plans for an “equal” immigration system after Brexit as Jeremy Corbyn said he still expected a “great deal” of movement of people from the EU to the UK. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab outlined plans to change the rules on benefits which EU nationals can claim in time if they live and work in the UK. But he said there would be no arbitrary target for total immigration levels. The Conservatives have said from the start of 2021, when the post-Brexit transition period ends, immigration rules will apply to EU nationals and non-Europeans in the same way, with no preferential treatment for any group. Earlier this week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said that if he won the election, he would try to reduce the number of so-called “unskilled” migrants coming into the UK. – BBC News …while Jeremy Corbyn refuses to commit Labour to continuing freedom of movement after Brexit Jeremy Corbyn has refused to say Labour would continue freedom of movement after Brexit, despite it being current Labour policy. Mr Corbyn promised that a Labour would allow “a great deal of movement” between countries, but would not confirm that the party’s manifesto, set to be released this week, would continue the party’s commitment to “maintain and extend free movement rights”. Labour’s policy on immigration has been the subject of a disagreement between senior Labour figures in recent days, with trade union leader leaders such as Len McCluskey of Unite insisting that the party must not promise more freedom of movement, while shadow cabinet minister such as Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, and John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, defended the policy. Mr Corbyn also refused to say whether he wanted the UK to leave the EU, insisting that Labour would leave it up to voters to decide whether Brexit went ahead. – Independent Labour to unveil compromise position on immigration – Guardian > WATCH: Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn discusses his Party’s immigration policy Brandon Lewis denies Brexit Party members were offered deals to desert Nigel Farage ahead of the general election… No deals were struck with senior Brexit Party figures to entice them to desert Nigel Farage ahead of the general election, a top Tory said today. Security Minister Brandon Lewis denied that anyone in the eurosceptic party had been ‘offered jobs’ or cut a deal not to stand against Tories in December. It came after police revealed they were assessing two allegations of electoral fraud after claims the Tories offered peerages in return for standing down. Mr Lewis told Sky’s Ridge on Sunday today: ‘No-one has been offered jobs or anything like that. ‘There have been no job offers, we have done no deals with anybody.’ Mr Lewis said: ‘I think what’s rather surreal with this conversation, not least of all is the fact that actually as chairman I removed Ann Widdecombe’s membership of the Conservative Party because she had joined the Brexit Party – that’s completely in breach of our constitution – but also because we’re the party saying we need to get a clear Conservative majority, we are fighting these seats to get Brexit done and deliver for people.’ – MailOnline > WATCH: Security minister Brandon Lewis discusses post-Brexit immigration and security …but Farage accuses the Tories of ‘corruption’ as he insists it was a ‘fact’ Nigel Farage has accused Boris Johnson’s team of “corruption” and insisted it was a “fact” that Brexit Party candidates had been offered government jobs if they agreed to stand down. The Brexit Party leader said he and seven other senior party figures had been offered peerages, while individual candidates had also received job offers from the Conservatives. He claimed that Mr Johnson’s senior adviser, Sir Eddie Lister, had contacted the Brexit Party candidate in Peterborough and offered him a job in higher education if he agreed to stand down. Last week, Mr Farage agreed to withdraw his party’s candidates in 317 seats that the Tories are defending but refused to stand down candidates in Labour-held areas that the Conservatives are targeting. Mr Johnson has admitted that conversations took place between the Tories and the Brexit Party but his party strongly denied that any jobs were offered. – Independent Scottish property market defies Brexit uncertainties as it hits record value Scotland’s property market is defying uncertainty over Brexit and is on course to hit a new record value above £18 billion in 2019, according to a new survey. But the figures come against a backdrop of increasing anxiety over the impact of the UK’s exit from the EU will have on the value of homes, the latest Property Monitor from law firm Aberdein Considine said. It said a major poll of homeowners found 50 per cent of people in Scotland fear their property will decrease in value after Brexit. The survey said the value of homes sold in Scotland in the third quarter of 2019 reached £5.3 billion, up £100 million on the same time last year. More than 28,000 home changed hands during the quarter, bringing the total value of sales in 2019 to £13.3 billion. “There is clearly homeowner anxiety around Brexit, but this has yet to be reflected in sales figures, perhaps due to the greater public having little idea what Brexit will actually look like. With another extension in place, we would expect to see these fears ease in Q4 as a new Parliament is elected. The make-up of that parliament will have a big say on what market sentiment will be going into Q1 of next year.” – The Scotsman EU set to offer derivatives industry extra year to prepare for Brexit Brussels is expected to grant the derivatives trading industry an extra year to prepare for a no-deal Brexit by prolonging existing emergency access for European institutions to crucial UK market infrastructure. Valdis Dombrovskis, vice-president of the European Commission, said on Friday that contingency plans for accessing UK-based clearing houses would have to be extended beyond the current March 2020 end date because the EU financial services industry would not have alternatives in place in time. The reprieve is significant for the financial sector given London’s dominance of the global €640tn market for swaps clearing. Most euro-denominated derivatives are handled in London. Mr Dombrovskis did not specify what the new end date would be for the emergency equivalence measure. But several memos circulated by Brussels lobbyists to their clients in London late on Friday and seen by the Financial Times said they had received informal guidance from the EU commission that the intention was to “extend the current equivalence decision with the UK for a further year”. UK clearing houses LCH, ICE Clear Europe and LME Clear are among the most critical institutions in the financial system, and prevent defaults from ricocheting through the rest of the market. EU regulations ban European companies from using clearing houses outside the bloc, unless Brussels has specifically recognised them, through a so-called equivalence decision, as being properly regulated and supervised. An extension would guarantee continued access through to the end of March 2021, some 14 months after Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. As the situation stands, the UK is set to leave on February 1 with or without a deal. – FT(£) Pub chiefs urge Boris Johnson to cut beer duty and boost Britain’s post-Brexit economy Pub chiefs have called on Boris Johnson to cut beer duty and slash red tape to help make Britain the “most competitive” economy in Europe post-Brexit. The British Beer and Pub Association said the next Government should take steps to support the struggling sector, including overhauling business rates. In a “manifesto” launch yesterday it said iconic watering holes can provide a tourism boost and enhance our reputation overseas once we’ve left the EU. It wants to ministers to pledge a real terms cut in beer duty, pointing out Britain has the third highest rate in Europe. The group says beers up to 3.5 per cent in strength should be brought into the low tax threshold and ones up to 0.5 per cent classified as alcohol free. Chief executive Emma McClarkin, a former Tory MEP, said: “Pubs and brewing are not only vital to the UK economy, but to our culture and way of life. The next Government must recognise this and work to create an environment in which they can thrive.” – The Sun David Blake: The Single Market isn’t working – why doesn’t the Left understand this? The Labour Party’s six tests for supporting a Brexit deal include ensuring the same benefits as currently enjoyed within the Single Market, protecting workers’ rights and avoiding a “race to the bottom” in terms of employment protections. Yet the reality is that the Single Market isn’t working for workers in the way most commentators – particularly those on the Left – believe it to be. Here’s why. The Single Market supposedly embodies the four freedoms of goods, services, capital and labour. But when it comes to the freedom of movement of workers, there is no real Single Market. EU workers are, of course, free to look for work in any member state and both unskilled and very highly skilled workers are able to find work if they are willing to accept the working conditions involved. However, a whole range of professional workers in between these two groups find it difficult to get jobs in their own profession, because there is frequently no mutual recognition of qualifications. Labour mobility within the EU is estimated to be one-third the level found in the US, and there are significant wage rigidities in European labour markets. Wage rigidities, combined with poor labour mobility, inevitably lead to high unemployment. Average unemployment in the inner core of the Single Market (the Eurozone) is 7.8%. It is 18% in Greece, 10.5% in Italy, 8.8% in France, although only 3.2% in Germany. Youth unemployment is far worse. It averages 16.1% in the inner core. It is 40% in Greece, 33% in Italy, 20% in France, and 5.6% in Germany. Workers’ rights are no good if you don’t have a job! – David Blake for Briefings for Brexit Hector Birchwood: I’m standing against Sir Keir Starmer to challenge his lack of integrity Watching Keir Starmer’s convulsions when attempting to explain Labour’s hopelessly muddled Brexit strategy in a TV interview earlier this week – almost – made me feel a shred of sympathy for the Shadow Brexit Secretary. Fixated on the dubious prize of replacing Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, Starmer has made a ruthless choice. If the contradictions of his twisted logic caused him to wriggle under the glare of the cameras, it was no more than his duplicity deserved. Starmer’s main problem is that, thanks to the Internet, he can’t edit out the gap between past statements and present behaviour. And it is clear that he knows exactly how ill-advised a second referendum would be. In early 2018, he told a group of students that his experience as a human rights lawyer overseas had exposed the harm of ignoring democratic votes. “I think it’s absolutely right,” he said, “that if we do have a referendum we abide by the result”. Now he has become Labour’s poster boy for a second referendum. How things change. Lodged in the safe seat of Holborn and St Pancras with a majority of over 30,000, Starmer doesn’t have to worry about consistency or integrity. Like too many members of our complacent political class, he believes he is untouchable. That’s why I am standing for the Brexit Party in his seat. As an immigrant from a country where the ruinous failure of democracy has caused violence to supplant the ballot box, I too understand the high stakes involved. The difference is that I’m willing to stand up for my beliefs. Both the Brexit Party and the Conservatives accept that we face a common enemy in Corbyn’s Labour, and a common goal in achieving a real Brexit rather than further dither and delay. – Hector Birchwood for the Telegraph (£) Shanker Singham: Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal has benefits for the firms and people of Northern Ireland but also for the cause of unionism itself The Withdrawal Agreement contains provisions that at first blush certainly do appear to put separation between aspects of life in Northern Ireland and in Great Britain. The anger that some feel about the deal is palpable, and one does not have to be in Northern Ireland to feel it. But is the deal really all bad for the cause of unionism? I would like to very respectively put the case that whatever else is in the deal, there are benefits for the firms and people of Northern Ireland, but also, ironically for the cause of unionism itself. The fact that Great Britain has regulatory flexibility and Northern Ireland may not is a significant difference from the May deal where both were locked into the EU system. Under that old deal, the UK would not have had any trade policy, and there would have been no benefits to Brexit. How can the UK ensure that NI benefits from its policies going forward? First, by ensuring we do have that forward looking trade policy that will give firms in Northern Ireland material advantages. The differences between NI and GB would be too high a price to pay if Northern Irish people did not fully participate in these benefits, and that these benefits be significant. If we can secure significant benefits from the US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and CPTPP accession deals, then it is crucial that people in Northern Ireland see these benefits immediately. Second, we must do everything in our power to ensure that any differences in the GB-NI trade channel is minimised and made as least disruptive as possible.The onus is now on the UK government to ensure that Northern Ireland makes the most of its position to be as economically successful as possible. – Shanker Singham for the News Letter Brexit in Brief How will the 2019 general election affect Brexit? – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£) Stressed Whitehall staff at ‘breaking point’ over Brexit – Guardian