Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Leo Varadkar says a Brexit deal can be done by October 31st after crunch talks with Boris Johnson… A Brexit deal is possible by Oct 31, the Irish Prime Minister has said, as he suggested a last-minute breakthrough could be on the horizon. After a three-hour meeting, Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar said they could see a “pathway to a deal”. Reports have emerged from Ireland that Mr Johnson was preparing to give ground on the issue of Northern Ireland staying in a customs union with the EU. The focus will now shift to Brussels where on Friday Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, will meet Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. Sources said Mr Barnier would assess whether enough progress had been made to justify the EU intensifying negotiations ahead of the EU summit next week. – Telegraph (£) Leo Varadkar: Brexit talks ‘very promising’ – BBC News Customs border in Irish Sea emerges as the only basis of a Brexit deal – Irish Times > WATCH: Irish PM Leo Varadkar gives an update on his meeting with Boris Johnson …but the Taioseach may have been ‘overly optimistic’ The Times understands that Mr Johnson spoke to Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, before the meeting and last night party sources did not dismiss what had been agreed out of hand. However, they cautioned that there was a long way to go in the negotiations and suggested that Mr Varadkar may have been overly optimistic. Even if it can be agreed in Brussels, if the DUP rejects the plan it could still be turned down by the House of Commons. Nevertheless, there was a feeling in London and Dublin that genuine progress had been made before next week’s European Council meeting. Sources said that it had also rebuilt trust between the two sides after a fractious few days during which Downing Street accused Mr Varadkar of putting obstacles in the way of a deal. It had said that he had reneged on private assurances not to openly attack Mr Johnson’s previous proposals. Mr Johnson’s aides accused the Irish administration of leaking the plan to the media before it was published. – The Times (£) Is a Brexit deal any closer after Varadkar meeting? – The Times (£) Michel Barnier and Steve Barclay to meet in Brussels today following Varadkar-Johnson talks Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will decide whether talks between the UK and Brussels are to intensify amid fresh hope that a deal could be reached before 31 October. He will sit down with Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay in the wake of a “positive” meeting between Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson on Thursday. The Irish leader emerged from the discussions with the Prime Minister to say it was now “possible” that a deal could be done in time for the Hallowe’en deadline. Downing Street, meanwhile, refused to comment on reports in Dublin that the PM had made a major concession in the hope of unlocking an agreement. Mr Barnier and Mr Barclay will discuss the latest state of play on Friday morning, before the EU chief decides whether the negotiations should now enter the so-called “tunnel”, detailed talks which could lead to a deal being thrashed out in time for next week’s European Council summit. – PoliticsHome British pound eyes best day in seven months on Brexit hopes The British pound extended its gains against the US dollar on Thursday and was eyeing its biggest one-day gain in seven months amid hopes for a Brexit deal. The sterling climbed 1.9 per cent against the buck to $1.2443 and hitting its highest level in two weeks. That also leaves the British currency on track for its biggest one-day gain since March 13. The pound strengthened after UK prime minister Boris Johnson and Irish taoiseach Leo Varadkar claimed they can see “a pathway to a deal” on Brexit, after surprisingly upbeat private talks at a hotel in north-west England. – FT (£) Jeremy Corbyn says his ‘first task as PM will be to trigger Brexit vote’… Labour would ‘immediately legislate to hold a second Brexit referendum if it wins the next general election, Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed. The party ‘trusts the people to decide’, its leader told an audience during a visit to Northampton yesterday. Mr Corbyn said if he took power he would secure a ‘sensible’ Brexit deal that included ‘a new customs union, a close single market relationship and guarantees of rights and protections’. He added: ‘Within six months of being elected, we will put that deal to a public vote, alongside Remain.’ He said Labour was the ‘only party that can and will deliver a public vote’. Mr Corbyn has resisted attempts by Boris Johnson, who is leading a minority government, to trigger a snap general election to break the Brexit deadlock. – Metro …but pro-Remain MPs plan ‘super Saturday’ vote on second referendum Pro-remain MPs are planning a crunch vote on a second referendum during the “super Saturday” sitting of parliament, as Jeremy Corbyn comes under intense pressure from senior allies to back another Brexit vote before an election. Several MPs involved in the People’s Vote campaign said the special parliamentary session on 19 October could be the key moment when the House of Commons will test whether there is support for a second referendum. Speaking in Northampton, Corbyn brushed off a suggestion that Labour should be pushing for a second referendum before an election. Asked whether another referendum should come first, he said: “A second referendum is what we propose under a Labour government, which would be, as I have said, not a choice between a no-deal cliff edge but between an intelligent arrangement with the European Union and remain.” – Guardian Labour MPs bombard Jeremy Corbyn with calls for him to back fresh referendum before general election – Independent Boris Johnson cannot get a majority unless he delivers Brexit on October 31st, latest polling suggests Boris Johnson cannot get a majority in a general election unless he delivers Brexit on October 31, polling presented at Tory conference has shown. The Daily Telegraph has obtained a ComRes survey which was presented last week at a conference fringe event attended by Tory MPs. Mapping voter reaction to five Brexit scenarios, it showed the Tories would only win a majority in the Commons if Britain left the EU on October 31. However any delay – even if it leads to a no deal Brexit immediately after an election, or Brexit being cancelled altogether, will leave a hung Parliament. – Telegraph (£) Michael Gove accuses some SNP ministers of failing to prepare for No Deal in the hope that ensuing chaos would ‘smash up the Union’ Michael Gove has accused some SNP ministers of deliberately failing to prepare for a no-deal Brexit in the hope the ensuing chaos helps “smash up the United Kingdom.” The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, who is in charge of UK preparations for a no-deal Brexit, expressed his concerns that senior figures in the Nationalist administration in Edinburgh are more concerned with “their own” independence agenda. He urged them to consider “the interests of Scottish citizens first”, before their desire to boost support for separation, and appealed to “wiser voices in the Scottish Government” to make the necessary Brexit preparations. His extraordinary intervention came shortly after he met representatives from the three devolved administrations in Edinburgh to discuss the Brexit negotiations and their preparations. – Telegraph (£) UK on track to avoid recession (despite Brexit) Britain is on track to avoid a recession despite mounting Brexit uncertainty after official figures showed an unexpectedly strong jump in economic growth over the summer. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product had risen by 0.3% in the three months to the end of August, beating the forecasts of City economists, helped by the strength of the services sector and a boom in TV and film production across the country. Against a backdrop of mounting political chaos, economists said the latest snapshot showed that while economic growth remained weak, Britain was likely to avoid its first recession since the financial crisis. Fears of a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of contraction – had been raised when data published in August showed the economy had unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, by 0.2%. Official growth figures for the third quarter are expected in early November. – The Guardian EU nationals without settled status could be deported The UK may deport EU citizens who have not registered in its settlement scheme by the end of next year, a government minister said Thursday. Home Office Minister Brandon Lewis told German newspaper Die Welt that EU nationals who have not applied to formalize their status will be subject to “the existing immigration rules.” Asked in an interview whether they could face deportation, Lewis said: “Theoretically, yes.” The government launched its settlement scheme at the end of March to register EU citizens already resident in the UK and formalize their right to work and access public services. All EU nationals who arrive in the UK before Brexit day are eligible to apply and must do so by December 31, 2020 if the UK leaves the EU without a deal or by June 30, 2021 if there’s a deal. – Politico Amber Rudd, Philip Hammond and David Gauke are in talks to lead a new political grouping at the next election Three high-profile former Conservative cabinet ministers are leading talks with other rebels who lost the Tory whip last month to form a new political grouping, BuzzFeed News can reveal. Amber Rudd, Philip Hammond, and David Gauke are part of an initial bloc of around 10 former Conservative MPs who are discussing running as candidates at the next general election under a common umbrella with a shared position on Brexit. They would also pool resources, donations, and polling under the plans, which were confirmed to BuzzFeed News by multiple sources. One person with knowledge of the conversations described the group as a party in all but name. An MP involved in the talks said that if Boris Johnson’s government runs on a manifesto pursuing a no-deal Brexit, then more current Tory MPs would defect to the rebel grouping. – Buzzfeed Philip Hammond in talks with other Tory rebels to form new grouping for next election – The Sun Lib Dem candidate compares Brexit to Nazi Germany The Liberal Democrat’s parliamentary candidate for Torridge and West Devon, David Chalmers, has become the latest Lib Dem candidate to insult his prospective voters – this time by posting comments on Facebook comparing Brexiteers to Nazis. Chalming… The candidate claimed that Brexit is causing divisions that have “split families and friends have led to huge rises in violent crime on our streets and domestic abuse in our homes.” He went on to say: “We have to stop this – just as we stopped the Nazis in Germany and their sympathizers in this country at the time from destroying this country in the 1930s.” – Guido Fawkes Penny Mordaunt: To break this Brexit impasse, Leo Varadkar and the European Commission need to show flexibility and goodwill In among all the disagreement there is one thing that is clear. It’s manifestly in everyone’s interest if the UK leaves the EU in an orderly, friendly and constructive way. At this stage though, it seems a distant possibility. A lot is riding on the judgment of the players in the Brexit deal negotiations in the days ahead. The reason for us being at this point is the very same as for us leaving – reform. Or more precisely, the lack of it. A thousand years of uninterrupted British sovereignty has taught us one thing. If change isn’t allowed to be a process, it becomes an event. Structures must change. People must evolve their thinking. Jean-Claude Juncker may recall his words in response to David Cameron’s proposals for reform, or his own statement on the eve of the referendum: “Out is out.” The warning was stark. No surprise. No compromise. No flexibility. The British were given a binary choice. In or out. Defeat or victory. Death or glory. Perhaps he regrets it now? What did he really expect? How little he understands of us or our history. – Penny Mordaunt MP for the Telegraph (£) Suella Braverman and Greg Hands: We have laboured to find a Brexit middle ground, but the EU was never serious about compromise Over the last few months, the Prosperity UK Alternative Arrangements Commission has taken the words of the EU President, Donald Tusk, in April very seriously. “Please do not waste this time,” he said when the EU granted the extension to October 31. We have devised and developed Alternative Arrangements for the Irish border, as envisaged in both the original Withdrawal Agreement, the Strasbourg Declaration and the Brady Amendment, which passed the House of Commons in January with a majority of 16. Our work has helped inform the British Government’s thinking and its new offer to the EU – and, in that regard, we hope it will ultimately help unblock the Brexit jam. We have engaged a technical panel of 23 global experts on trade and customs and with real life experience of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement negotiations. Our Technical Panel has produced a 275-page report and two protocols in order to secure a deal. – Suella Braverman MP & Greg Hands MP for the Telegraph (£) Robert Peston: Has Dublin rescued Boris Johnson? I pass on, with little confidence or real understanding, that Boris Johnson seems to believe that Leo Varadkar and Dublin have lessened their objections of principle to his Brexit offer. Maybe both sides are moving in a significant way. We’ll see. What I should point out however is that if the negotiations were to collapse this weekend, that would be the worst timing for Johnson, because it would spur rebel Tory MPs to use SO24 next week to take control of Commons business – and they would try to get a motion passed in favour of a referendum on May’s gone-but-not-forgotten Brexit deal. When that flopped (as it probably would), the rebels would go for a vote of no confidence, to engineer Johnson’s removal. – Robert Peston for ITV News David Green: Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can’t let it get in the way of Brexit The EU talks are still in danger of collapsing because of Northern Ireland at a time when the majority of people who live there think they will be part of a united Ireland within ten years, according to Lord Ashcroft’s September poll. Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU. In 2016-17, according to HM Treasury figures, total expenditure by the Government on Northern Ireland was £20.6 billion. HMRC reports that tax receipts from Northern Ireland in the same year came to £11.7 billion, a net payment of £8.8 billion. – David Green for the Telegraph (£) The Sun: We are sceptical about this ‘pathway’ Boris Johnson and Ireland’s Leo Varadkar have laid If Boris Johnson pulls off a Brexit deal that can work for both sides, win a Commons majority and satisfy Brexiteers and the DUP he can probably turn water into wine too. So we are sceptical about this “pathway” he and Ireland’s Leo Varadkar laid yesterday. Especially since Brussels’ absurd ultimatum that the UK and/or Northern Ireland must remain in its customs union for ever is a non-starter. But The Sun still hopes a deal can be struck. Because the uncertainty is damaging the economy, crippling firms and causing stress to families everywhere. – The Sun Vernon Bogdanor: A second referendum is an affront to democracy. Remainers can only stop Brexit by winning an election The EU will, apparently, accept a Brexit extension only if Britain agrees to call either a general election or a second referendum. Clearly an appeal to the people cannot be long delayed. What form should it take? Tony Blair argues for a referendum on two grounds. The first is that an election can never yield a mandate for a specific policy. Were, for example, the Conservatives to win, this might be, not because of their Brexit policy, but because voters preferred Tory economic policies to Corbynite ones. There is no way of deducing the meaning of the outcome by scrutinising the number of Xs on the ballot paper. The Brexit Party and the SNP are single issue parties. The Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are not. Secondly, Blair argues that under our electoral system, a party can win an overall majority on just 35 per cent of the vote, as indeed he himself did in 2005. It would then claim a mandate for Brexit even though nearly two-thirds of the voters might be against it. – Vernon Bogdanor for the Telegraph (£) Brexit in Brief Brexit nightmare stemmed from Tories so it’s time to get serious – Frederick Forsyth for the Express Germany’s ailing economy can’t afford a no-deal Brexit – Liam Halligan for The Spectator Emmanuel Macron’s pick for EU commissioner blocked by European Parliament – Independent