Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Labour must back Remain to survive, warns Tom Watson memo… Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, has warned MPs and peers that an analysis of the party’s losses in recent local and European elections that was presented to the shadow cabinet last week dangerously underestimated the crisis it will face if it fails to back another Brexit referendum. In a briefing document circulated to more than 100 Labour MPs and peers yesterday, Watson says sections of the analysis leaked to the media have “skewed” understanding of the party’s plight. He warns that if Labour does not face the actual lessons and become a Remain party, it risks electoral disaster. In his memo, obtained by the Observer, he challenges five of the key points made to the shadow cabinet in the briefing, which cast doubt on the benefits of Labour becoming a more explicitly pro-Remain party. Watson warns that unless Labour grasps the reality of its position, it faces a “catastrophic loss of votes” to the Liberal Democrats and Greens “that could enable a Conservative landslide” at a general election. His intervention comes ahead of further discussion at the shadow cabinet on Tuesday of Labour’s Brexit position. After last week’s meeting, the party issued a statement that disappointed supporters of a second referendum and appeared to leave Labour’s nuanced position on another public vote unchanged, while not committing the party to a clear pro-Remain stance. – Observer …while Hilary Benn urges Labour to back a second referendum Hilary Benn has urged the Labour Party to come out “loud and clear” in support of a second referendum. Speaking at the launch of People’s Vote North, Mr Benn described the Brexit campaign as a “fantasy” and said the UK’s withdrawal has been a “complete and utter mess”. The pro-Remain Labour MP joined celebrities, sports stars and other politicians at a rally at New Dock Hall in Leeds, the first of 15 similar events planned across Britain this summer. Mr Benn told crowds: “So let’s say it clearly, let the party that I joined at 17 years of age say it loud and clear – we want a People’s Vote.” He continued: “We know, to use the technical term, that Brexit is a complete and utter mess. “I have never spoken on a People’s Vote platform before, but I too have come to the conclusion that the only way out of this mess is now to give the people a final say.” – Sky News Hilary Benn calls on Labour to back second referendum ‘loud and clear’ – Observer Tory leadership rivals make pitch to be PM at first hustings for party members… Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have made their pitch to be the next prime minister at the first of 16 Conservative Party hustings. The two contenders for Number 10 laid out their vision for the country at a conference in Birmingham. Mr Johnson said these were “dark days” for his party, but insisted he could turn things around. But his rival warned members not to elect the “wrong person” and risk “catastrophe”. Mr Johnson said the most important thing was to “get Brexit done”. He said: “My ambition is to unite this country and our society… let’s take Britain forward. “We need to discover a new confidence in our country.” Mr Johnson, meanwhile, said he would prepare for a no-deal Brexit if he became PM. He said: “We must be able to come out on WTO terms, so that for the first time in these negotiations we carry conviction. And it is precisely because we will be preparing between now and 31 October for a no-deal Brexit that we will get the deal we need.” He repeated his previous claim that it was “eminently feasible” for the UK to leave the EU by 31 October, saying he intended to make it happen. – BBC News Boris Johnson 22 points ahead of Jeremy Hunt with grassroots Tories – Sunday Telegraph (£) …where Jeremy Hunt says he wants a Brexit deal but is prepared to leave the EU without one… Conservative leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt said he would be prepared for a no-deal Brexit if the EU is “inflexible” in terms of a deal. However, he stated he is “aiming heart and soul” to get an agreement with Brussels, in the first hustings of the run-off to become Prime Minister. Asked how he would go about Brexit negotiations, between now and October 31, Mr Hunt said: “A wise prime minister makes choices on the basis of the options that are actually available in front of them at the time. “Now we don’t know what the situation will be on the 31st of October, but if there is no prospect of a better deal, if the European Union have been as inflexible as you say, and if no deal is on the table, then I will leave without a deal because we must keep our promise to the British people. But I would do so with a heavy heart, because of the risks to businesses up and down the country and the risks to the union.” The foreign secretary said he has not met a single European leader who does not want to find a solution. He said: “I think they would listen to a new British prime minister. And I think if we get this right we can get the deal we need. Send the right person and there’s a deal to be done. Send that right person and we can do what we all need to do, which is come back with something positive for our country. And that’s what I want to do.” – Evening Standard …and Boris Johnson insists we will leave the EU by Halloween as Hunt pledges to deliver Brexit before an election Boris Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the EU by Halloween if he becomes Prime Minister – while Jeremy Hunt promised to deliver Brexit before an election. The Tory heavyweights were grilled onstage in Birmingham as they at the first Conservative Party leadership hustings. Boris doubled down on his claim that he would be able to waive tariffs on EU goods after a No Deal Brexit – even though the idea has been repeatedly dismissed by officials on both sides of the Channel. And Jeremy Hunt promised to “deliver Brexit and send Corbyn packing” – before vowing to make the Tories attractive to young people again. He said: “I promise you two things – when we go back to the British people, we will get more young people. “We cant be the party of aspiration if the most aspirational people aren’t supporting us and we’re gonna get them back. “And the second thing I will never provoke a general election before we’ve left EU. I am champing at the bit.” – The Sun MPs urge Johnson to guarantee Brexit on 31st October… Boris Johnson is facing a public campaign by his own supporters to guarantee to deliver Brexit by October 31 if he becomes prime minister, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose. In a bid to pile pressure on Mr Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, more than a dozen Conservative MPs have pledged to “stand up for Brexit” in a reprisal of a major grassroots campaign that previously foreshadowed the defeat of Theresa May’s deal with the EU in the Commons. Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, and Priti Patel, the ex International Development Secretary, pledge their support in an article for this newspaper. Steve Baker, the deputy chairman of the European Research Group of Tory Eurosceptics, also signed up to the campaign last night, along with Julian Lewis, the chairman of the Commons defence committee. All are supporters of Mr Johnson, who is attempting to hold together a coalition of 160 Eurosceptic and pro-EU MPs who backed him in the final round of voting among Tory parliamentarians on Thursday. Their pledges suggest a new Prime Minister would lose their support if he failed to secure Brexit by October 31, the current deadline agreed with the EU. Mr Johnson has privately assured Brexiteers that he would meet the deadline, by delivering an exit with or without a deal. But in a television debate last week he stopped short of giving an outright guarantee – instead saying that it was “eminently feasible”. On Saturday, following a leadership hustings in Birmingham, he tweeted: “I’ll deliver Brexit by 31st October.” – Sunday Telegraph (£) …while it is reported that his secret plan to break the Brexit deadlock includes using Iain Duncan Smith as an enforcer Boris Johnson will be “ruthless and focused” in getting Brexit delivered by October 31 if he becomes prime minister, senior aides have revealed. The Sunday Express has been given details of what the powerful European Research Group believe is Mr Johnson’s blueprint to get Britain out of the EU without further delay. And he will sack civil servants and ministers who fail to get the job done, senior members of his team have claimed. According to sources, former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith could be appointed deputy prime minister in charge of an expanded Cabinet Office which will take in the Brexit Department. Ministers and civil service cabinet secretaries in charge of departments will have their summer holidays cancelled and be expected to report to Mr Johnson each week on no-deal preparations. In the meantime, sources expect Theresa May’s unsuccessful deal to be ditched. The Government will instead offer the EU an exchange of letters based on article 24 of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs to keep goods and services open tariff-free, while a trade deal is worked out. In the meantime, they are urging Mr Johnson to fly out to the US on November 1, potentially the day after Brexit, to start trade talks with President Donald Trump and be ready to give Britain a good deal. – Sunday Express Tories will bring Boris Johnson down if he pursues a no-deal Brexit, warns Dominic Grieve… A senior Conservative MP has warned Boris Johnson he will not “survive very long” if he pursues a “crash-out” Brexit, because fellow Tories will bring him down. Dominic Grieve, who supports Britain remaining in the EU, predicted “a large number” of his colleagues would turn on the new prime minister, even joining a vote of no confidence to block a no-deal exit. “There are a large number of Conservative MPs who will object to that happening and who will do everything possible to prevent it happening. I think the numbers are quite substantial,” the former attorney general said. Mr Grieve admitted the new prime minister – widely expected to be Mr Johnson – could call a general election to win the public’s backing a for a no deal, if thwarted in parliament. But he warned the Tories would lose badly, saying: “That is likely to be catastrophic for the future of the Conservative Party.” – Independent Dominic Grieve suggests Tory MPs will bring down Boris Johnson if he goes for no deal Brexit – iNews …while Chief Whip warns of plot to no-confidence a Johnson Government after one day Boris Johnson has been warned that he is at high risk of being prime minister for just one day as Tory MPs launched a secret plot to stop the Queen asking him to replace Theresa May. The Conservative chief whip, Julian Smith, told Johnson campaign chiefs Gavin Williamson and James Wharton on Thursday that there was a high likelihood he would lose a vote of no confidence within 24 hours of taking the job. Smith revealed that two Tory MPs were on a “high-risk” watch list to defect from the party, destroying its majority in parliament and that a “handful” could jump ship to bring him down. Key aides of Johnson and Jeremy Hunt were summoned to a meeting at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ) on Thursday where Smith and the party chairman, Brandon Lewis, outlined plans for May to tender her resignation to the Queen after a final appearance at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, July 24. Smith explained that Labour MPs had been placed on a “hard three-line whip” for the following day, when Jeremy Corbyn is expected to table a motion of no confidence in the new government — and warned that it could easily be lost. – Sunday Times (£) How the EU is blocking UK trade deals with the US, Australia, China and Brazil Brussels is blocking post-Brexit trade deals offered to the UK from the US, Australia, China and South America, Tory MEP Daniel Hannan has sensationally revealed. Mr Hannan said Theresa May’s relentless and blinkered pursuit of a trade deal with the EU has shelved more than half a dozen other offers from huge nations that are quite literally queuing round the block to trade with Britain. He said that because Mrs May’s pursuit of a trade deal with the bloc could then rub-off on the next Tory leader and Prime Minister, it means Britain – and the long list of such nations – could remain in limbo until the no deal-withdrawal agreement stalemate is finally over. In a piece penned for the Daily Telegraph, he said: “Let me put this as simply as I can. Australia has offered us a trade deal. America has offered us a trade deal. China has offered us a trade deal. Brazil has offered us a trade deal. “Indeed every major economy in the world is offering us a trade deal except the EU. “Isn’t it time to switch partners?” Australia said at the end of last year it was more than ready to trade with the UK, with Donald Trump echoing that sentiment just weeks ago when he visited Britain for his state visit. Mr Hannan also gives the EU a dressing down while sharing some of the bizarre quips top eurocrats have said to him in toe-curlingly awkward conversations. – Sunday Express BMW chiefs pledge loyalty to Britain as they prepare production network for Brexit impact German car giant BMW has declared it remains ‘committed’ to the UK in a boost for our embattled automotive industry. In accounts filed this month for BMW UK, directors added: ‘We are currently going to great lengths to prepare our production network for the impact of Brexit.’ BMW brought forward the summer maintenance shutdown of its Mini factory in Oxford to April to minimise disruption around the expected Brexit date at the end of March. The car industry is going through turbulent times. US car maker Ford is closing its plant in Bridgend, South Wales, at the cost of 1,700 jobs. Lower car production is being blamed for contributing towards the downturn in the economy. Figures for BMW UK for the year ending December 31, 2018, show turnover was slightly down on 2017 at £5.6billion. The previous year’s profit of £76.3million fell sharply to £10.3million due to an £86.7million preference share dividend payout. BMW employs about 8,000 people directly in the UK with an extra 14,000 in its retailer network. Britain is BMW’s fourth-largest sales market in the world. – Mail on Sunday Priti Patel and Iain Duncan Smith: UK needs a leader who will stand up for Brexit In the last three years, the British government and the UK parliament have successfully turned our country into an international laughing stock, humiliated by the EU’s negotiators. Mrs May and her Cabinet are chiefly responsible for this. They claimed to want to reach a consensus and swore that in taking this approach they were acting in the interests of Britain. Yet after three rejections by Parliament, their strategy failed. Their search for what they termed consensus, ended with the UK bound to pay some £40bn to the EU whilst being locked into an arrangement we couldn’t leave unless the EU let us. As Margaret Thatcher said: “… consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects.” Who can argue with the wise words of the Iron Lady? The country badly needs an inspirational figure and a new team to set it back on the right course. It should be obvious to everyone that what Britain does not need is another prime minister who wastes yet more time trying to fiddle with this miserable deal. It will only cause more political paralysis and economic uncertainty. MPs who don’t agree with this, do not have the right to stand in the way of democracy. We would remind them that the margin of victory for Brexit in 2016 was 1.25 million votes – greater than the population of the city of Birmingham. The new Conservative leader must be willing to stand up for democracy in the face of the EU and must be able to inject some zest into the country’s collective psyche. Otherwise the consequences could be dire. – Priti Patel MP and Iain Duncan Smith MP for the Sunday Telegraph (£) Nigel Farage: Three years, no EU exit – we must not trust Westminster Today is the third anniversary of the day Britain voted Leave in the EU referendum. In numbers that’s 17.4 million votes. Three years. No Brexit. Brexit has suffered three major betrayals by the political establishment. Yet the worst may be to come. We could be facing the biggest betrayal of all if they prevent the UK from leaving on the new deadline of October 31. Let’s just remind ourselves of those three great Brexit betrayals. The first was even before the referendum, when the Westminster parties deceived voters into believing that our vote would count. In June 2015, MPs backed a referendum by 544 votes to 43. During the referendum campaign, David Cameron’s government spent £9million of public money sending a Remain propaganda pamphlet to every household, stating clearly that “the Government will implement what you decide”. We have learned that they should have added “…so long as you make the right decision, to Remain”. The second great betrayal came in the 2017 general election. Both the Tories and Labour stood on manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and break free from the rules of the European single market and customs union. The third betrayal came on March 29 this year. Mrs May told us we would definitely leave then – indeed she told us on 108 occasions. And then March 29 came and went, without Britain going anywhere. Now, three years of deceit later, we may face the fourth and biggest betrayal of all. I truly hope Boris Johnson keeps his word and delivers Brexit. Yet there are already signs of another betrayal in the making. – Nigel Farage MEP for the Sunday Express Daniel Hannan: No, Brexit isn’t killing Britain. It’s the refusal to deliver Brexit that’s turned politics inside out Look what Brexit is doing to you,” a German MEP told me this week. “You’re in crisis, your system is breaking down, everyone is looking for a way out”. I get this a lot in Brussels. “Brexit is making you poorer.” “Brexit is making you angrier.” “Brexit is making you more xenophobic”. Sheesh, guys, do I really need to spell this out? Brexit hasn’t happened. The thing that is causing a crisis, making us angrier etc is not Brexit, but its precise opposite – the refusal of our leaders, despite their promises, to deliver Brexit. I have almost given up trying to explain this in the EU. Pretty much every interview with continental media begins from the assumption that Britain is collapsing, that we’re scrambling for European passports and the leaders of the Leave campaign are ashamed to show their faces. I try to explain that there is no crisis except in Westminster, that the economy is outperforming the eurozone and that opinion polls have barely moved, but I can tell the interviewers don’t believe me. It’s not surprising that foreign elites, whose chief English-language newspapers are the New York Times and the Financial Times, should have a partial understanding of our politics. The bizarre thing is that lots of British people engage in similar doublethink. Listen to the way Lib Dems talk, for example. They tell us that Brexit has created a terrible mess and then, in the next breath, they claim that the only solution is a new referendum. – Daniel Hannan MEP for the Sunday Telegraph (£) David Owen: Our EU escape route exists already. Europe set it up At the end of next month the new British prime minister, whether it be Jeremy Hunt or Boris Johnson, will have to meet the outgoing president of the European Commission to discuss proposals for amending the withdrawal agreement so that the Irish backstop cannot have the effect of locking the UK permanently into the EU. I doubt the EU will accept any form of words for doing this. It is too sensitive in Dublin, and adopting such a position on Ireland has been the clear hardline strategy of the commission itself. But without any amendment I suspect the House of Commons will make it clear once again that there is insufficient support to adopt the withdrawal agreement, nor to leave the EU without a deal. Yet the European single market is designed to include countries inside and outside the EU that are signatories in their own right to the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement. The laws of the single market are part of the withdrawal agreement, which, in effect, keeps the UK within the single market until December 31, 2020. The Bruges Group, a Eurosceptic think tank founded after Margaret Thatcher’s speech in that city in 1988, has recently advocated a mechanism whereby the UK leaves the EU but remains a member of the EEA, “participating provisionally” in the European single market. This term “provisional” is important: since May 2014 Croatia has been a provisional member of the single market without ratification. The UK could do the opposite, leaving the EU on October 31, 2019, to become a non-EU member of the EEA. A “Canada+++” free-trade deal was offered by the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, when it was clear the withdrawal agreement was proving difficult for the UK. It was an offer that should have been pursued. But the UK’s status would be “provisional” in that it would be the intention to leave the EEA by giving the statutory 12 months’ notice to coincide with the completion of a Canada-style EU-UK free-trade agreement by December 31, 2020. – Lord Owen for the Sunday Times (£) Brexit in Brief Now it is time to listen to the Tory grassroot support – Tim Newark for the Sunday Express