Brexit News for Sunday 7 May

Brexit News for Sunday 7 May
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€100bn Brexit bill is ‘legally impossible’ to enforce, European Commission’s own lawyers admit…

The Telegraph has seen minutes of internal deliberations circulated by Brussels’ own Brexit negotiating team which had warned against pursuing the UK for extra payments… The row over extra payments demanded by Europe arises from a refusal to offset any final bill against the value of EU assets, acquired by the UK during its 43 years of EU membership. Brussels is also demanding Britain continue to pay farm subsidies up until the end of 2020, almost two years after Brexit. But both of these moves fly directly in the face of European Commission warnings to EU member states that such demands could undermine the legal foundation for their final bill demand. The Commission’s initial position – now apparently over-ruled by EU leaders – would appear to support British contention that the European demands on what Britain owes Brussels are legally flimsy and wildly over-stated. – Telegraph (£)

>Hugh Bennett on BrexitCentral: The EU’s obsession with Britain’s money exposes its own vulnerability

…as May is urged to demand international tribunal over EU Brexit bill to ‘call their bluff’

Leading Tory barrister Martin Howe QC has advised the Prime Minister to throw down the gauntlet to her European counterparts and ask them to convene an international tribunal to examine their claim… Mr Howe, who is a founding member of Lawyers for Britain, a group of lawyers who campaigned for Britain to leave the EU in last year’s referendum, added: “My strong suspicion is that the EU side would never agree to that because they know their legal argument is completely empty… The other reason they wouldn’t agree to it is that they are desperate for the cash immediately.” … According to reports, Ms May is considering the dramatic step of publishing ‘Hard Brexit’ plans – to show Britain is serious about going it alone. Under the radical move, No.10 would go public with the contingency measures being put together by Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood – in the event EU divorce talks break down. Sources claim the PM now wants to send a message to EU leaders – rein in the Commission. – Express

Merkel ‘angry’ with Juncker’s Brexit antics…

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is angry with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for allowing details of a tense dinner with the British Prime Minister Theresa May to come to light, Der Spiegel reported Saturday… Publication of the details caused a heated diplomatic spat, with May accusing the Commission of trying to interfere in the British elections and Juncker saying Friday that the English language was “losing importance” in Europe. Der Spiegel reported that officials in Berlin widely assume the leaked details came straight from the top of the Commission. – Politico

…as EU colleagues are reported to have criticised Juncker over anti-UK behaviour

Gobby EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker has been told to put a sock in it by furious colleagues. They have told the European Commission chief that every time he opens his mouth he strengthens Britain’s Brexit hand. Now they are plotting to sideline him after he gave a fictitious account of dinner with Theresa May – then scoffed the English language was losing its importance. A source said: “The whole process would benefit from a period of silence from Mr Juncker.” Senior EU chiefs have privately apologised to the PM for his behaviour. One diplomatic source said: “They told her he doesn’t represent the way we want to do business.” – The Sun

Brexit brings bonanza for billionaires

An explosion of wealth fuelled by a “Brexit boom” is captured by the new edition of The Sunday Times Rich List, which contains record riches and more billionaires than ever before… The astonishing strength of this year’s Rich List defies expectations that wealth creation would stall in the lead-up to last summer’s European referendum and then crash after the vote to leave the EU. A buoyant stock market has propelled the fortunes of many business leaders and entrepreneurs higher and higher. Other wealthy individuals have benefited from the weaker pound since Britain voted for Brexit, boosting the sterling value of their overseas investments. – Sunday Times (£)

Third of people considering tactical voting at general election to block Tories’ “hard Brexit”, poll suggests

One third of people are prepared to vote tactically at next month’s general election in order to prevent a hard Brexit, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent. Supporters of such a strategy said the findings showed that tactical voting could deny Theresa May a landslide on 8 June despite the Conservatives’ triumph in last Thursday’s local elections. The survey by ORB found that 46 per cent of people who backed Remain in last year’s EU referendum would consider voting for someone who was not their first choice in order to stop a hard Brexit… Overall, 30 per cent of people would consider voting for a different candidate to stop a hard Brexit. – Independent

France goes to the polls in presidential election

The French go to the polls on Sunday to vote for their next president in a run-off election where they will pick between independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and Front National leader Marine Le Pen. They face a choice between two radically different visions for the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Mr Macron, a 39-year old rookie politician whose En Marche! (On the move) startup movement is only a year old, is a staunch defender of the postwar liberal order and the EU. Ms Le Pen has campaigned on a platform of nationalism and “intelligent protectionism,” arguing that globalisation has hurt the ordinary French people. She wants to leave the euro and put up trade barriers. – FT (£)

  • City cuts weekend short to tackle fallout from French election – Telegraph
  • Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are lucky French voters won’t rate them on economic competence – Gaurav Sharma for IBTimes

Liam Halligan: Negotiation over dinner leaves a bad taste

What’s really shocking, though, is how quickly much of the UK commentariat, after Juncker’s poisonous briefing, simply accepted his twisted view as gospel; the unvarnished truth… Even if the Brexit talks go well, though, the UK government feels “an implementation period” will be required after March 2019, when the Article 50 window closes and we formally leave… Lord Owen agrees with me that EEA, as a final destination, would betray our referendum result. He thinks, though, the EEA membership could be useful during the “implementation period”… Once we’re in the EEA but outside the EU, Lord Owen says, the EEA treaty contains a vital clause that allows us to leave at a time of our own choosing, albeit with a year’s notice. – Liam Halligan for the Telegraph (£)

  • The EEA Agreement and why it is a potential vehicle for a UK implementation period after leaving the EU and while negotiating an EU/UK trade agreement – Lord Owen
  • An Interpretation of the European Economic Area Agreement, EEAA – Lord Owen

Robert Colvile: Was Europe ever worth it?

Any deal between Britain and Europe is almost certainly going to include some sort of fee for access to the single market, or to the most important parts of it. It may be dressed up as an administration fee, but in reality it will be a straightforward greasing of the wheels. The question, then, is what access to that market is worth. And a trio of academics have come up with a surprising answer. Earlier this week on CapX, we ran a fascinating analysis of why people actually voted for Brexit, based on a new book by Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin and Paul Whiteley… The authors scrutinised the performance of the British economy over the past 64 years, to find the factors that hampered or boosted growth. And EU membership was not one of them… As if this wasn’t enough, Clarke, Goodwin and Whiteley make another, equally striking claim: that EU membership hasn’t been that great for anyone else, either. For 20 out of 28 member countries, growth actually dipped after joining rather than rose. And with the exception of Ireland and Luxembourg, those eight exceptions were all post-Soviet economies with significant “catch-up” gains to make. – Robert Colvile for CapX

Janet Daley: The EU’s vindictiveness has united Britain behind Theresa May

It is simply obtuse to argue that it was preposterous (“unprecedented”) for [Theresa May] to claim that insulting remarks about her planted by European commissioners in the German press constituted interference in the UK general election. Of course they were designed to influence the electorate: how else could an attempt to discredit a head of government who is seeking re‑election be interpreted? What was truly unprecedented in that nasty little incident was not Mrs May’s response but the shocking breach of diplomatic protocol from Jean-Claude Juncker and his henchmen… In response to Mrs May’s gracious request for a close and friendly relationship with what she hoped, as she put it in the Lancaster House speech, would be a flourishing EU, she got this outpouring of bile. So an already popular national leader was cast as the would-be victim of a gang of bullies – and after a pause to recover from the shock, she was seen to stand up to them in the great British tradition. Well done, Brussels. – Janet Daley for the Telegraph (£)

Dan Hodges: This tired, emotional Euro boor is the poster boy for defeat (shame no one’s told Sturgeon, Clegg and Labour’s EU cultists)

What will it take for the penny to finally drop for the boneheaded, obstinate Euro-cultists who constitute The Continuity Remainers… How many parliamentary votes or referenda or elections must be surrendered before they finally realise the war is over, and they have lost? Last week Theresa May committed what to Continuity Remain was an electoral hate crime. She stood in Downing Street and brought Brexit into the heart of the Election campaign. Even worse, she did it by pledging to stand up for Britain. And then – and I shudder to type such sacrilegious words – she criticised Jean-Claude Juncker. Seriously, how does that bloody difficult woman have the nerve? – Dan Hodges for the Mail on Sunday

Brexit comment in brief

  • Either Labour reconciles itself to Brexit or it disappears down the plughole of history – Iain Martin for Reaction
  • Voters are ready to reward No 10’s gamble with a blank cheque – Adam Boulton for the Sunday Times (£)
  • Like all divorces, the EU split is about money – Dominic Lawson for the Sunday Times (£)
  • Theresa May and her team of Tories won’t play if the EU continues to play dirty – James Forsyth for The Sun
  • The barista Brexodus is no grounds for panic – Sarah Baxter for the Sunday Times (£)
  • Exit Ukip stage right as Tories build formidable Brexit coalition – Rob Ford for the Observer
  • Brexit will change millions of lives. Our leaders must do more than posture – Guntram Wolff, Bruegel think tank director for the Observer
  • Brexit is an opportunity to reinvigorate our woodland – the Conservatives should seize it – Sam Hall for the Telegraph
  • We will not tolerate our Prime Minister being ridiculed by sloshed Euro boss Jean-Claude Juncker – Tony Parsons for the Sun on Sunday
  • Brussels must understand Theresa May is not bluffing when she says Britain will walk away from Brexit talks – The Sun says

Brexit news in brief

  • Biggest Brexit donor Peter Hargreaves urges May to guarantee rights of EU nationals – Observer
  • Top negotiator who helped end bloody civil war in Colombia brought in to help get Britain out of EU – Sun on Sunday
  • Bob Geldof accuses Theresa May of ‘pimping’ the Queen in astonishing anti-Brexit rant – Sun on Sunday
  • Euro boss Jean-Claude Juncker’s oddest moments – from Benny Hill head slapping to bizarre outbursts – Sun on Sunday
  • Three thousand migrants rescued in the Mediterranean – Telegraph
  • Now European speeding fines will apply to British holidaymakers – City A.M.