Lies, damned lies and Eurofacts

Lies, damned lies and Eurofacts

With economics incomprehensible even to economists, it’s no surprise that politicians use homely analogies to persuade electorates to accept the unacceptable. Mrs. Thatcher did when she explained national finances as those of a household. That’s not true because for a household, debt is a burden, while for nations, it’s a stimulus through the multiplier effect. But it worked.

That’s why the same technique is being put into overdrive by EU lovers hoping to stop Brexit. Here are a few examples…

We lose our best market
The Single Market is only a fifth of the world economy and shrinking compared to other world markets which are growing faster. Because it is rigged to favour Germany, we run an enormous deficit in it. The share of our exports going to it is down 17% in the last twenty years. That of countries like the US and the USSR and China – who trade on WTO terms – is growing faster. Our trade with America is on WTO terms.

The EU has given us decades of peace
NATO, which the EU is now disrupting by forming its own defence services, had more to do with that.

The gravity law makes it better to trade with neighbours
Tell that to Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Our trade with the rest of the world is better balanced but our deficit with the EU grows because Germany trades unfairly to build up huge surpluses.

The EU improves standards
In fact it dilutes them to a lowest common denominator. It does nothing for us that we can’t do better for ourselves. We’re ahead of them on such issues as minimum wages and equal pay.

Leaving will empower extremist parties
It’s difficult to do this better than the EU itself as the failing euro forces unemployment and austerity on the poorer members. In Hungary, Poland and Austria, extremism is in power. AfD is growing in Germany, as is the NF in France and nationalist parties are stronger in Holland and Denmark.

We need the protection of a bigger unit
Tell that to Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand. The EU is a protectionist bloc which doesn’t redistribute to its members. And it drains us by contributions, CAP costs and the loss of jobs, money and demand. As for protection from the big multinationals, it’s the EU’s insistence on the mobility of business which allows corporations to dodge tax in Britain by attributing UK profits to Ireland and Luxembourg.

The City will be hit as will our services sector
Why? The City sells internationally. Its market in the EU has been deliberately weakened because services are the only one of the “four freedoms” not fully free.

Food prices will rise
Why? We can buy food on the cheapest markets, buy fruit and agricultural products from developing nations and catch and eat our own fish!

We need a soft, not a hard Brexit
Only the EU can decide that but a ‘soft’ Brexit requires them to change basic rules. These are its main bonds so they’re unlikely to do so because everyone will want it.

Leaving without a deal is to fall off the cliff
That’s really up to them. It makes no sense to damage and cripple the British economy they want to trade with. EU external tariff barriers are not high and can be leapt over with a more competitive exchange rate. Imposing the CET on them will produce good revenue to invest in customs officers, ports and support for “just in time” industries to hold bigger stocks.

A customs barrier will destroy the Northern Ireland peace process
It’s just as likely to ruin the weather. Whether there are customs checks depends on the Republic and the EU, not us.

The pound will plummet
Any country with a trade deficit as large as ours needs its exchange rate to come down, just as Germany’s should go up to curb its unfair trading. A more competitive British exchange rate will boost exports, while taxing imports will stimulate manufacturing and produce revenues.

Unimaginable horrors including plagues of frogs will descend on us if we leave
It’s difficult to imagine anything worse than the fears, or as Trump might call them Eurofakes, mobilised by EU sympathisers. Better than Hammer Horror, and cheaper. But remember that they once prophesied that growth, full employment, support, well-being and eternal happiness would come our way if we joined the Common Market.