Distrust in the political system will determine the continued success of the Brexit Party

Distrust in the political system will determine the continued success of the Brexit Party

Undoubtedly, there are lots of assertions flying around as to the meaning of the Peterborough by-election result. Remainer media pundits are totting up every possible source of Remain voters to show the strength of Remain sentiment. However, it is usually what is blatantly apparent, rather than a construction, which has most force: a party which was registered in February and only started operations eight weeks ago came second by a smidgen, with no constituency data nor a constituency network, driving the government party into third place.

A couple of weeks ago, as I watched the European election results come in for Yorkshire and the Humber, I was struck by those from Labour heartlands: Rotherham, Wakefield and Doncaster, where the Brexit Party vote was over 50% of the totals, as big a number as all of the other parties put together.

So what are we to make of the Brexit Party tsunami?

Well, first of all let us acknowledge that without the threat to the jobs of the current crop of parliamentarians, there would likely never have been a Conservative leadership election. The immovable block to Brexit in No. 10 would not have given way. There has been a tangible and practical impact already. It is interesting to observe the “mood music” of that leaving where sentiment lay. Both Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron appeared genuinely sorry to lose their compatriot, Mrs May – as well they might, as clearly she was in cahoots with a shared sole objective of keeping the UK as close to the EU as possible.

The second impact of both the European election and Peterborough is to send a clear message to Parliament and to a new Prime Minister, that the people of Britain will not stand for the undermining of democracy and want Brexit delivered cleanly and swiftly; they want a clear-out of the sneering establishment. After all, the Brexit Party stood on a platform that was crystal clear. Those who are the epitome of the anti-democracy, entitlement set are on their way out.

The High Priest of damage limitation and the fictional “cliff edge”, the Chancellor, has made dire prognostications and threats to maintain this status quo. He should be the first to be sacked by a future Prime Minister. Not surprisingly, the Director-General of the CBI walked off with a Damehood at the weekend, part of a cosy establishment coterie wedded to the EU – the power of patronage never ceases to amaze. 

We’ve heard over recent days, the continued cacophony against “populism” spat out in a manner that gives away the perceived entitlement and superiority of those espousing it. If by populist they mean the democratic majority, then normally in our first-past-the-post system one of the parties adapts and absorbs 60% of any new sentiment amongst the electorate. In the case of Brexit, we have been infiltrated massively by EU vested interests and their UK vassals and apologists, which means that the establishment have not so far been prepared to adapt to the new, preferring instead to obfuscate and dissemble. History tells us that when this happens it does not result in a sluice gate rush but a burst dam with the resulting flood engulfing all before it. As a consequence of the dam, it has been necessary to force the issue via a new party.

As it happens, the democratic majority have rumbled the EU-sponsored establishment and now appear to want bigger changes than just Brexit. What happens next depends on: who leads the Tories, whether or not we leave on October 31st and how disaffected people are. There are a lot of moving parts. If the Tories elect “May Mk. 2” and we don’t leave on October 31st, I would suggest they will find it difficult to come back from that level of betrayal in this generation.

In parallel, if Jeremy Corbyn adopts a position, as many want him to, of supporting a second referendum and campaigning for Remain, Labour will be unelectable as they will lose their core vote in the regions. Then there would be a seismic shift in British politics to four parties. The Brexit Party may emerge with the most votes of all the parties, but fewer seats than the Conservatives. An Australian-style National Party coalition could be the result. Or at least a confidence and supply arrangement.

As for the others? In this scenario, some will migrate to the Liberal anti-Democratic Party for as long as they can maintain their integrity, a thing which has been a challenge historically. Eventually people will rumble the Greens, when they realise that their policies would ruin people’s living standards and the economy without making a material difference to global warming. Even the young and naive eventually have to earn a living.

If, on the other hand, the Conservatives elect as leader a Prime Minister who properly exits the EU on October 31st and, very importantly, embraces the benefits of Brexit and thus makes it a success, the chances are that the Conservatives will be re-elected as the largest party. However, even the most popular candidates are capable of “smoking their own dope” (believing their own propaganda) as we used to say in business, believing they will win through by force of personality. But beware, the electorate will not be fooled any longer.

The level of distrust in our political system and in politicians will determine the continued success of the Brexit Party and the continued demise of the rest.  For example, it is not inconceivable that it will become the key challenger in regional Labour constituencies in place of a Labour Party which has in all circumstances abandoned its core constituency.

Whatever happens, it is vital that the Brexit Party continues to ensure that a proper, clean-break Brexit is achieved and that there is a wholesale realignment of politics and economic policy away from the current vested interests. It is vital that Brexit is a success and this depends on government policy.

The restoration of trust, democracy and sovereignty are vitally important for the future of our country. Only the Brexit Party can do this. Only the Brexit Party can restore trust in democracy. The Brexit Party is in fact vital for the continued legitimacy of all parties. What is encouraging is just how many in the political firmament recognise this.