Sign up here to receive the daily news briefing in your inbox every morning with exclusive insight from the BrexitCentral team Theresa May to set out five tests for Brexit success in major speech… Prime Minister Theresa May will set out five “tests” for a future UK-EU deal and pledge to “bring our country together” in a major speech on Friday. The “deepest possible” free trade deal is “achievable” because it is in both EU and UK interests, she will argue. But it must be an “enduring solution” that respects the referendum result, protects jobs and “strengthens our union of nations”. – BBC News A Brexit trade deal should be deeper and more comprehensive than “any free trade agreement anywhere in the world today,” Theresa May will [say] on Friday. Speaking at the 18th century Mansion House in the City of London, the prime minister will set out “five tests for the deal”: that it delivers on the June 2016 referendum result; is a lasting solution; protects jobs and security in the U.K. and EU; maintains the U.K. as a “modern, open, outward-looking, tolerant, European democracy”; and strengthens the union of the U.K.’s nations and its divided electorate. – Politico Theresa May to outline her five tests for Brexit in Mansion House speech – Sky News Theresa May’s five-point ultimatum to EU in Brussels Brexit showdown – Express Theresa May will warn EU negotiators that forcing a shoddy Brexit deal will backfire – The Sun Theresa May poised for Brexit fightback as she calls for historic free trade agreement – City A.M. Theresa May accused of empty slogans as she sets out plan to secure ‘best trade deal in the world’ – Independent Key questions for Theresa May’s Brexit speech – Oliver Wright and Sam Joiner for The Times (£) How long will the EU’s Brexit inflexibility last? – Pieter Cleppe for CapX > Iain Duncan Smith on BrexitCentral yesterday: What Theresa May needs to say on Friday …as she urges Britain to ‘come back together’… Theresa May will urge the warring Brexit tribes to put their differences behind them on Friday as she promises to deliver a deal with Brussels that will keep Britain an “open, outward-looking, tolerant, European democracy”. In a carefully calibrated speech, its platform hastily relocated from Newcastle to London’s Mansion House because of the severe weather, the prime minister will make a deliberate overture to anxious remain voters. “We must bring our country back together, taking into account the views of everyone who cares about this issue, from both sides of the debate”, she will say, addressing her own divided party, as well as the public. She will insist that the EU referendum result in 2016 was “not a vote for a distant relationship with our neighbours”. – Guardian …while she removes “binding commitments” to follow certain EU rules after Cabinet objections… The speech provoked a debate in Cabinet yesterday about a line in which the Prime Minister made a “binding” commitment to align with EU rules and regulations in certain sectors after Brexit. David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, raised concerns that the approach would effectively permanently tie parts of Britain’s economy to the EU without giving the Government a say in the rules. “It would make us a rule taker,” said one Cabinet source. He was supported by Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, Gavin Williamson, the Defence Secretary who voted Remain, and Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the Commons. Greg Clark, the Business Secretary, is understood to have made a passionate defence in favour of the language in the speech. – Telegraph (£) Mrs May will give more detail in her speech today on how Britain would seek to mirror EU rules in some areas while choosing to break away in others. She will seek to kick-start negotiations, set to begin later this month, by setting out specific examples of which parts of the UK economy could follow which path. However, objections from pro-Brexit cabinet ministers mean that a promise to make “binding commitments” to mirror EU rules in some sectors has been dropped, The Times understands. Greg Clark, the business secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, had argued in a cabinet meeting that the phrase was needed to provide businesses with the certainty they required to remain in the UK. David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, argued that the phrase implied that the UK accepted the EU’s legal framework in those areas. Other Brexiteers such as Michael Gove argued that it would make it unnecessarily hard to negotiate. – The Times (£) UK cabinet at odds hours before key Brexit speech – FT (£) May’s Brexit Speech: David Davis pushes back against a ‘binding commitment’ to align with EU rules – James Forsyth for the Spectator …as top civil servants Heywood and Robbins are blamed for “drift” at Cabinet After the Chequers summit the story was one of unity and consensus, with the agreement reached by the Brexit sub-committee last week holding until today’s Cabinet meeting. Yet during today’s talks senior Brexiters say there was some “drift” away from the language of the Chequers agreement, with a few “tweaks” that appear to be trying to reset the government’s approach towards convergence with the EU… Those in the room detect the hand of Jeremy Heywood and Olly Robbins, May’s troublesome civil servants, trying to move the Cabinet away from the agreed position. A Cabinet source says: “It seems to be incessant tinkering and manipulation by the Cabinet Secretary and his minions when everything should be focussed on what the Cabinet agreed at Chequers”. – Guido Fawkes Jeremy Corbyn accused of undermining Brexit after senior Labour MPs’ pilgrimages to Brussels… Jeremy Corbyn has been accused of “conspiring” with Michel Barnier to undermine Brexit after a series of senior Labour figures’ pilgrimages to Brussels. Top Tories said the Labour leader is plotting with eurocrats to try and force Britain into a customs union… A Whitehall source directly connected to Brexit negotiations said: “It’s clear that there is a concerted campaign by hard core Eurofanatics to undermine the legitimate choice of millions of voters at the EU Referendum in 2016.” …Concern has been mounting in London for some time about a number of high-profile meetings between leading EU figures and Labour. Mr Barnier has met Mr Corbyn three times and has also held recent talks with shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer and influential europhile Chuka Umunna. On Wednesday the Frenchman gave his tacit seal of approval to Labour’s customs plan, just two days after it was announced by the party. – The Sun Is Barnier now conspiring with Corbyn to bring down May? – Iain Dale for ConservativeHome …as Blair-Major ‘tag team’ tries to wrestle back Brexit initiative Tony Blair and Sir John Major have joined forces in a carefully choreographed campaign to shift the terms of the Brexit debate in Britain and Brussels. In an approach agreed between the two former prime ministers and co-ordinated by the pro-Remain group Open Britain, Mr Blair used a speech in Brussels yesterday to call on European leaders to help reverse Brexit by offering concessions on immigration. His intervention followed a speech by Sir John on Wednesday in which he argued that parliament should be offered a free vote on the terms of any Brexit deal, with the possibility of a second referendum… As well as making the case for a second referendum behind the scenes, senior former pro-European politicians including Mr Blair, Sir Nick Clegg, David Miliband and Lord Mandelson are also making the case in Europe for the EU to keep open the door for Britain to come back by offering concessions on freedom of movement. – The Times (£) Brexiteer Cabinet member invites ‘toxic’ Remainer Tony Blair to speak every day of the week – Independent Former PM Tony Blair claims there is now a 50% chance Brexit won’t happen – Sky News Blair to EU: Brexit is your problem too – help us avoid it – Bloomberg Tony Blair: EU reform can change UK minds on Brexit – BBC News Sir John Major denies ‘bastards’ have won on Brexit as he calls for MPs’ free vote – Sky News Embattled anti-Brexit Tories get new mojo from John Major – Bloomberg Tony Blair continues the campaign against Brexit – James Forsyth for the Spectator No-one voted for this Brexit mess, so the issue will have to be returned to the people – Lord Mandelson for The Times (£) Blair’s latest bid to stop Brexit is just a desperate fantasy – Christian May for City A.M. Cabinet minister says UK will refuse to enforce hard Irish border with EU even in ‘no deal’ Brexit… Britain would refuse to enforce any new border in Ireland even if there is a ‘no deal’ Brexit, a Cabinet minister has told The Independent. The minister said it would be “impossible” to put a hard border in place simply because the area needing to be enforced is too great. With the EU saying this week that a border is the only option if Britain refuses to stay aligned with European customs and regulation, the minister added: “If they want to put up a border, let them try.” The Cabinet minister told The Independent: “It’s impossible to put a border in place between Northern Ireland and the Republic. You cannot put up enough fences. It was the same in the 70s – we could never stop terrorists coming across it. Even if there is no deal, I can see no reason why we would try to enforce the border.” – Independent …as Brussels insists EU control over Northern Ireland is a ‘wise’ Brexit solution… Donald Tusk, one of the EU’s most senior officials, piled pressure on Theresa May to stay in the customs union on Thursday, as he claimed that putting Northern Ireland under the EU’s control to avoid a post-Brexit hard border was a “wise” solution. Speaking to European business leaders in Brussels, the president of the European Council said he accepted “without enthusiasm and satisfaction” Mrs May’s red lines on accepting EU rules after Brexit… It comes after the EU unveiled an explosive draft Brexit treaty which would see Northern Ireland follow a vast number of EU rules and regulations, in the event that no other solution to the border conundrum is found. – Telegraph (£) EU boss Donald Tusk tells Theresa May he’s ‘not happy’ with Brexit ‘red line’ – Sky News Come to parliament, Sinn Féin, as saviours of Ireland – and Britain – Polly Toynbee for the Guardian Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar urges Sinn Fein to take Westminster seats to ‘make things better for Ireland’ over Brexit – Independent The EU is playing with fire on Northern Ireland – Ben Kelly for Reaction An Irish Sea border would be a disaster for Northern Ireland and the Union – Alex Redpath for ConservativeHome Now the EU is trying to break up the United Kingdom – Express editorial > Lee Rotherham on BrexitCentral yesterday: Ignore Brussels’ bluster about the Irish border: the EU has already bent border rules to accommodate the pursuit of peace …after EU officials raise concerns about Barnier’s “maximalist” approach Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, brushed off claims that imposing EU customs checks on the Irish Sea, under the direct jurisdiction of EU judges, amounted to breaking up the UK. “It would not call into question the constitutional order,” he said, adding: “I’m not trying to provoke or create any shockwaves.” But even within EU institutions, the boldness of the provisions left some startled. One senior official called it a “maximalist” approach to put “maximum pressure” on London. Another compared it to asking Britain to “cede territory”… Ireland backed a “full throttle” approach, perhaps sensing that its leverage would decline as Brexit day approached. Other EU countries were more wary. One senior eurozone government official asked why there was such a rush for “clarity” on an Irish problem that was “insoluble”… Mr Barnier’s team was said by colleagues to be “buoyed” by Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader, backing [a customs union] this week. Such attitudes have left Brexiters suspecting that a conspiracy is afoot. “The issue of the Northern Irish border is being used quite a lot politically to try to keep the UK in the customs union, effectively the single market, so we cannot really leave the EU, that is what is going on,” said Boris Johnson, Britain’s foreign secretary. – FT (£) Barnier says Brexit transition will not be confirmed until talks end – Bloomberg > Former Brexit Minister David Jones on BrexitCentral today: The Government needs to spend money now on post-Brexit preparations, deal or no deal UK proposes compromise offer over EU nationals arriving during Brexit transition EU nationals who arrive in the UK during the transition period after Brexit will be eligible for indefinite leave to remain, the government says.. But the UK says new arrivals should not expect all the same rights as now… Those arriving in the UK after 29 March 2019, the day Britain leaves the EU, will have to register with the authorities if they want to stay longer than three months. They will then be allowed to stay for five years “working, studying or being self-sufficient” to qualify to apply for indefinite leave to remain, part of the process of becoming a UK citizen… Those who arrive after Brexit day will also be able to bring family members to the UK under free movement rules, during the transition period. But – in the main change to the current arrangements – when the transition period has ended they will have to abide by the rules that currently apply to British citizens who want to be joined by family members from outside the EU, such as the minimum income requirement. – BBC News Brexit talks yield some hope with citizens’ rights deal closer – Bloomberg Guy Verhofstadt leads EU rejection of UK’s citizens rights plans despite May concessions – Express Brexit Britain increasingly in favour of free trade with the rest of the world Britons are increasingly embracing free trade and becoming less supportive of protectionism, according to new research. The figures, highlighted in a new report from the National Centre for Social Research, fly in the face of the perception that the EU referendum result was a sign of the UK turning away from the outside world. Public support for a liberal approach to trade is now higher than it has been at any time since research was first conducted in 2003, suggesting that the public is in favour of a post-Brexit Britain signing trade deals with the rest of the world. Almost two thirds of people now believe that “free trade leads to better products becoming available in Britain”. This has increased six percentage points from 57 per cent in 2003. – Telegraph (£) SNP accused of rushing through ‘dangerous’ Brexit Bill in three weeks despite having 13 months SNP ministers are attempting to rush through their own “dangerous” version of the EU Withdrawal Bill despite Brexit not happening for another 13 months, the Tories have warned as MSPs voted to treat the legislation as an emergency. Adam Tomkins, the Conservatives’ constitution spokesman, highlighted a series of flaws in the Scottish Government’s Continuity Bill and warned ministers were inviting MSPs to “make bad law and to make law badly.” … Mike Russell, the SNP’s Brexit Minister, insisted it was “essential” the Continuity Bill becomes law before the EU Withdrawal Bill does. However, it already faces being snarled up in the Supreme Court after Ken Macintosh, Holyrood’s presiding officer, ruled it was beyond the Scottish Parliament’s powers. – Telegraph (£) SNP square up for court battle as Holyrood chief says their Brexit bill is unconstitutional – Henry Hill for ConservativeHome Bruno Waterfield: What the customs union really means to Barnier, Corbyn and Blair Controversial and highly sensitive as it is, Michel Barnier is actually doing everybody a service by clarifying exactly what “a customs union” looks like. The seven-page [Northern Ireland] protocol paints a vivid picture of what Jeremy Corbyn’s post-Brexit vision would look like and it is no accident that both have emerged within days of each other… For while it appears to be a challenge to the UK’s territorial integrity, Mr Barnier’s push for a customs union for Northern Ireland is really a proxy; it is all pressure for a similar UK-wide arrangement. As he himself protests there is no threat to the constitutional or territorial order of Britain, as Theresa May complained. Of course not, but only if the entire territory of Britain has the same “customs union plus” arrangement with the EU à la proposals made by Mr Corbyn on Monday. The EU is using Northern Ireland as a wedge in the negotiations to politically weaponise the Irish border question in the Brexit negotiation against the government. While bigging up the frontline battle with the government, much, much more privately many EU governments will now press Ireland to be open to British offers of technical measures facilitating a soft border. For the EU, it is not really about Ireland, let alone Sinn Féin’s chimera of a united Ireland via Brexit. For the EU it is about boxing Britain into a post-Brexit relationship that provides maximum political safety and control by the Union’s existing order. – Bruno Waterfield for The Times (£) > Hugh Bennett on BrexitCentral yesterday: The EU reveals its true nature with its duplicitous manoeuvres on Northern Ireland Jeremy Warner: The EU is making a decent Brexit impossible – but Britain won’t tame as easily as Greece Consciously or otherwise, the EU is making it impossible for Britain to leave on decent terms, increasing the chances of a messy exit that will be damaging to all. It beggars belief that otherwise sane policymakers such as Michel Barnier could think that destabilising Europe’s second largest economy, with powerful spillover effects into Europe itself, the right way of approaching the British mutiny. The Irish border issue provides the latest example of overreach. Has the Commission no understanding of Northern Ireland’s poisonous history? Does it honestly believe that the peacekeeping purpose of the Good Friday Agreement will be furthered by imposing a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK? By what right does it threaten the breakup of a sovereign nation? Barnier and his puppet masters play a dangerous game in gambling that May will be forced to abandon her red lines. Britain is not Greece, Norway or Switzerland. It cannot so easily be swatted away. As the two sides dig in, the risks of a bad outcome grow steadily higher. – Telegraph (£) The EU and Britain are playing a high-stakes game of chicken – Anand Menon for the Guardian EU’s Brexit withdrawal agreement shenanigans explained – Olivia Utley for Reaction Brussels has reneged on the Phase One deal – it’s time to walk away from the Brexit talks – Andrew Lilico for ConservativeHome Oliver Wright: Irish border is proxy battle over future EU-UK relationship To any reasonable and impartial observer the row between Britain and Brussels over the future of the Irish border must seem baffling. Surely in the 21st century it should be possible to come to a practical arrangement that allows the UK to go its own way in the world without causing Armageddon along the rural lanes of Co Fermanagh? But that is to mistake what this row is really about. Because the war of words and legal text over Northern Ireland is actually a proxy battle between Britain and Europe over the future of our relationship as a whole… [The UK] figured that Brussels would not want to be held responsible for imposing customs barriers and checks along the 310-mile border and potentially jeopardising the Good Friday agreement. Following on from that, they surmised, the UK could then argue that any border arrangement that was good enough for Ireland could be replicated across the whole of the UK. If you could have a frictionless border between Derry and Donegal – why not between Dover and Calais as well? The EU have taken this logic, inverted it and weaponised it. – Oliver Wright for The Times (£) Asa Bennett: The EU is running riot over Brexit. It’s time Theresa May took back control The European Council president is trying to force the Prime Minister to choose between two options: a hard border on the island of Ireland or binding the whole of the UK to EU regulation. He must know Mrs May couldn’t allow Northern Ireland alone to be tied into a “common regulatory area”, so she would have to commit the rest of the UK with it. Yet he deigns not to consider the third option: a border with minimal disruption, like the EU has with Switzerland. Faced with such treatment, it’s time for the Prime Minister to take back control of the negotiating process. She cannot allow the negotiations to be dictated by the EU from on high, with Brussels bureaucrats reinterpreting agreements on a whim… Brexit may be the UK’s decision, but the decision on whether to throw up hurdles rests with Brussels. Mrs May can expect widespread support in her fight against the EU’s maximalist view of Brexit, with Remainers like Nick Boles expressing their disgust about Monsieur Barnier’s approach… Calmness cannot cover for the bulldozer approach he is trying to subject Britain to. Ministers are quite rightly not letting this stand. If a deal is to be done, Mr Davis should call the Frenchman’s bluff and see how truly “pragmatic” he can be. – Asa Bennett for the Telegraph (£) Ed Conway: Brexit could work wonders for free trade The WTO reckons that the number of non-tariff barriers around the world has doubled in the past decade. While Japan has an estimated 1,523 barriers, the EU has 2,049 and the US has a whopping 5,014 and rising. Even before the election of Donald Trump, protectionism was on the increase… The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has calculated that if rich countries removed the tariffs on their imports they would enjoy a 1 per cent bump in productivity — easily enough to shock us out of our malaise. The jolt would be even bigger if we removed all those non-tariff barriers too. If this argument sounds familiar it’s because it was used last week by the pro-Brexit lobby group Economists for Free Trade to explain why we could be even stronger outside the EU than inside. Such arguments are portrayed as entirely reasonable when they come from the IMF, but the Brexiteers’ forecasts were met with widespread ridicule. – Ed Conway for The Times (£) James Forsyth: The Tory divide that May must bridge Mrs May’s problem is that both sides suspect that her policy is essentially to be equidistant between them. Both sides then have an incentive to adopt hardline positions in the hope of dragging her their way… So which way will May turn in the end? Well, the Chequers meeting of the Brexit inner cabinet offered some substantial clues. May has chosen, at least, to open with a position that has alignment with EU rules as voluntary for the UK and allows divergence over time… Once May has set down her opening position it will be more difficult than many appreciate for her to move away from it. There is bound to be some give and take in the negotiations; indeed, one of the reasons that the Brexiteers in the inner cabinet were so concerned ahead of the Chequers meeting is that they knew there would be concessions once the talks got under way. It will be hard, however, for May to abandon the principles that underpin her opening offer. – James Forsyth for the Spectator No 10’s new tactics – Katy Balls for the Specator Ryan Bourne: A market-regulated economy is far from Davis’s ‘Mad Max’ dystopia Why are even supporters of free markets so apologetic about them? I ask after coming late to Brexit Secretary David Davis’s speech in Vienna 10 days ago, which sadly amplified Left-wing stereotypes about a market economy… Alluding to an alternative world of deregulated markets as “an Anglo-Saxon race to the bottom” and “a Mad Max-style world borrowed from dystopian fiction,” he was doing the work of anti-capitalists for them. Unwittingly he was lending credence to a flawed state-socialist idea – that anything not controlled by government amounts to dangerous disorder. Nobody believes all state regulation is useless, of course. Sometimes markets do fail. Global standards can facilitate trade. EU rules which prevent state subsidies (despite the Corbynistas’ wailing) are a blessing for UK consumers and taxpayers too, rather than a curse. But does the UK government really believe the EU is the pinnacle of economic dynamism and there are no areas where deregulation is appropriate? – Ryan Bourne for the Telegraph (£) Brexit in brief Britain is not alone in wanting sovereignty back – Andrea Hosso for the Express As the clock ticks towards Brexit Day we’re in danger on multiple fronts – Jonathan Portes and Anand Menon for The Times (£) Theresa May faces Mission Impossible at end of ‘Road to Brexit’ – Faisal Islam for Sky News Labour rightwingers could unite with discontented Conservative remainers and Lib Dems. But only hardcore Tory Brexiteers would benefit – Owen Jones for the Guardian Brexit is bold enough as it is. To get it right, Theresa May should dare to be dull – Kristian Niemietz for the Telegraph (£) Theresa May’s best hope is to fudge the Irish question – Philip Collins for The Times (£) UK food crisis looms without Brexit deal, claims Sainsbury’s CEO – Bloomberg EU splurges £10.6M so students can travel across Europe for free – Express